The_Capt

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

They really don't need to be.  Even a few minutes apart and that column was screwed.  Trying to turn 15-20 trucks around to go back the way they came, while getting hit every 2-3 minutes is a recipe for disaster.  No one trains their logistics drivers to do formation manoeuvres, so if one were to try that you would likely wind up with vehicle pile ups.  Pushing through makes the most sense but see: FPVs.  As soon as trucks start getting hit, scared drivers are going to bail and run away.  And a decent ambush is going to try and hem in the column by hitting lead vehicles.
What this looks like is an old air attack drill, pull off under trees and try to disperse. Which results in getting plinked by FPVs one at a time.

I don’t know how to disperse when you have FPVs come at you from all directions.  It looks like the pulled into tree lines which is right in line with our own doctrine.  They likely abandoned the vehicles because once illuminated, there was little they could actually do against FPV travelling faster than they can.  Which way is “the enemy” when being hit from all directions?

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Now there could be something to this line.  Putin has played up heritage and Russian history a lot.  The reality is that Russia for the average Russia was not great place to live.  The rich, and Moscow were doing fine for the most part but the rest of the nation was kinda backward and economically lagging (to be polite).  Putin was banging on the history drum pretty hard - he even thought it would be a good idea in that stupid Carelson interview.
So maybe the logic here is to give disenfranchised people something to fight for.  A vision of a Russia which was still “great”.  It explains that video we saw of the Russian officer telling his men that “they will be remembered”.  This is not an existential war, it is a crusade (which is often framed similarly).  A crusade to push back the west and retake Russia identity.  That is some powerful stuff.  Unfortunately it also boxes this thing up further as the only way for Russians to walk away is to reject Putin’s version of Russian identity.  Which could mean walking away from it entirely.  The man is playing chicken with his whole society.

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Is it just me or does the RA seem a little more ragged lately?  We have been here before but there seems to be a steady stream of some weird signals again.  I am starting to wonder if they burned themselves out over the Winter-Spring trying to show everyone that they are not burned out.

Now there could be something to this line.  Putin has played up heritage and Russian history a lot.  The reality is that Russia for the average Russia was not great place to live.  The rich, and Moscow were doing fine for the most part but the rest of the nation was kinda backward and economically lagging (to be polite).  Putin was banging on the history drum pretty hard - he even thought it would be a good idea in that stupid Carelson interview.
So maybe the logic here is to give disenfranchised people something to fight for.  A vision of a Russia which was still “great”.  It explains that video we saw of the Russian officer telling his men that “they will be remembered”.  This is not an existential war, it is a crusade (which is often framed similarly).  A crusade to push back the west and retake Russia identity.  That is some powerful stuff.  Unfortunately it also boxes this thing up further as the only way for Russians to walk away is to reject Putin’s version of Russian identity.  Which could mean walking away from it entirely.  The man is playing chicken with his whole society.

Now there could be something to this line.  Putin has played up heritage and Russian history a lot.  The reality is that Russia for the average Russia was not great place to live.  The rich, and Moscow were doing fine for the most part but the rest of the nation was kinda backward and economically lagging (to be polite).  Putin was banging on the history drum pretty hard - he even thought it would be a good idea in that stupid Carelson interview.
So maybe the logic here is to give disenfranchised people something to fight for.  A vision of a Russia which was still “great”.  It explains that video we saw of the Russian officer telling his men that “they will be remembered”.  This is not an existential war, it is a crusade (which is often framed similarly).  A crusade to push back the west and retake Russia identity.  That is some powerful stuff.  Unfortunately it also boxes this thing up further as the only way for Russians to walk away is to reject Putin’s version of Russian identity.  Which could mean walking away from it entirely.  The man is playing chicken with his whole society.

Now there could be something to this line.  Putin has played up heritage and Russian history a lot.  The reality is that Russia for the average Russia was not great place to live.  The rich, and Moscow were doing fine for the most part but the rest of the nation was kinda backward and economically lagging (to be polite).  Putin was banging on the history drum pretty hard - he even thought it would be a good idea in that stupid Carelson interview.
So maybe the logic here is to give disenfranchised people something to fight for.  A vision of a Russia which was still “great”.  It explains that video we saw of the Russian officer telling his men that “they will be remembered”.  This is not an existential war, it is a crusade (which is often framed similarly).  A crusade to push back the west and retake Russia identity.  That is some powerful stuff.  Unfortunately it also boxes this thing up further as the only way for Russians to walk away is to reject Putin’s version of Russian identity.  Which could mean walking away from it entirely.  The man is playing chicken with his whole society.

This may shock and amaze you but this is not a binary thing. HVTs just outside of GMLRS range are probably going to have to go through a different authorization process than other strikes but still have an approval process. All strikes into Russia will likely be heavily vetted. This will all be part of a pretty robust ROE regime if the UA wants to use US weapons.  
And another shock...maybe everything happening does not show up on the news.  
Any and all strikes on Russian nuclear architecture will be very much off the table because the grown ups are not stupid.
Of course I have concerns about nuclear escalation...and so should you.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

This may shock and amaze you but this is not a binary thing. HVTs just outside of GMLRS range are probably going to have to go through a different authorization process than other strikes but still have an approval process. All strikes into Russia will likely be heavily vetted. This will all be part of a pretty robust ROE regime if the UA wants to use US weapons.  
And another shock...maybe everything happening does not show up on the news.  
Any and all strikes on Russian nuclear architecture will be very much off the table because the grown ups are not stupid.
Of course I have concerns about nuclear escalation...and so should you.

They really don't need to be.  Even a few minutes apart and that column was screwed.  Trying to turn 15-20 trucks around to go back the way they came, while getting hit every 2-3 minutes is a recipe for disaster.  No one trains their logistics drivers to do formation manoeuvres, so if one were to try that you would likely wind up with vehicle pile ups.  Pushing through makes the most sense but see: FPVs.  As soon as trucks start getting hit, scared drivers are going to bail and run away.  And a decent ambush is going to try and hem in the column by hitting lead vehicles.
What this looks like is an old air attack drill, pull off under trees and try to disperse. Which results in getting plinked by FPVs one at a time.

I don’t know how to disperse when you have FPVs come at you from all directions.  It looks like the pulled into tree lines which is right in line with our own doctrine.  They likely abandoned the vehicles because once illuminated, there was little they could actually do against FPV travelling faster than they can.  Which way is “the enemy” when being hit from all directions?

Or it was an ATACMs strike, or on the outer edge of GMLRS and the UA did some quick repositioning. I have a serious problem with the “Russia Sux” line of thinking.  It is a lazy heuristic that gets tossed around far too often to explain phenomenon.  Sometimes it may be a simple screw up but Ukrainian targeting has been profoundly improving over the last year, as a bunch of burning scrap metal at very long ranges demonstrates.
Russian complacency is far too convenient in this case with so little actual evidence of what happened. Regardless, the UA spotted and struck a HVT that was likely 10s of kms inside Russia.  They did so before the target could move, so likely first salvo.  Let’s not write the whole thing off to “Russia Sux” just yet.

Or it was an ATACMs strike, or on the outer edge of GMLRS and the UA did some quick repositioning. I have a serious problem with the “Russia Sux” line of thinking.  It is a lazy heuristic that gets tossed around far too often to explain phenomenon.  Sometimes it may be a simple screw up but Ukrainian targeting has been profoundly improving over the last year, as a bunch of burning scrap metal at very long ranges demonstrates.
Russian complacency is far too convenient in this case with so little actual evidence of what happened. Regardless, the UA spotted and struck a HVT that was likely 10s of kms inside Russia.  They did so before the target could move, so likely first salvo.  Let’s not write the whole thing off to “Russia Sux” just yet.

From the map looks like about 2.5kms from Ukrainian border, well within FPV range.  Why send an expensive HIMAR to do the job of about 100k worth of drones.  RA likely thought they were safe in Russia or took a wrong turn.  Of course we are looking at logistical trucks, can’t disperse these like AFVs/IFVs at the best of times.

I swear to God, the Ukraine or Death extreme thinking is as bad as pro-Russian narratives for providing insights. The Ukraine is Always Right and Total Victory or the West will Fall narratives are dangerously delusional.  It traps us into a forever war with zero negotiation room or off ramps.  Honestly if this was the case, a fast first nuclear strike on Russia makes the most sense…and worse some of these extreme views might actually be on side with this.
There are days where I wonder if there is any sane ground left. We have diplomats and politicians treating this like an upgunned trade dispute. Russians thinking it is 1905 and time for Imperial ambitions, quoting doctrines centuries old as justification for gross violations. Pro-Ukrainian extremes that if Russia does not lose this war unconditionally all Western democracies will collapse into anarchy and we should be ready to risk full on nuclear war.
And we are a moderate forum by any metrics.

I disagree.  Ukrainian genocide is a given.  In ‘22 it would have likely been cultural with a dose of brutal oppression.  After the last two years, I do not want to think about the level of vengeance that would be visited upon the Ukrainian people if Russia somehow prevailed.
As to Western collapse…nonsense.  You have pinned NATO, EU and Chinese expansion on this one war.  To the point the entire western world depends upon it.  This is simply not true.  First off, we could win this war and still see NATO and EU fold up, they were under intense political pressure before this war even started.  I think it more likely we will see western powers rally closer together in an Ukraine losing situation.  Some may decide to jump but a dangerous Russia and China are a “united we stand” mechanism, not an “every one for themselves”…and I will raise you Sweden and Finland to prove it.
As to the “Fall of Western Democracies” if we lose in Ukraine…again utter nonsense. Western voters are not absorbed by this war. In fact western ennui and apathy is the major challenge in keeping up political support for this war.  If Ukraine falls and bad things happen, western powers will embrace refugees (for awhile) and quickly change the channel, like we have for a long list of “troubles over there” for the last thirty years. Western democracies are more likely to tear themselves apart over a myriad of internal issues than a war most North Americans can’t find on a map.
Oversubscribing this war is bad as undersubscribing.  Because if you are framing this war as existential for the entire western world well then risking a full on Russian collapse or even nuclear war makes perfect sense…but it is factually wrong.
So, you may “know” but you clearly do not understand.

I don’t know how to disperse when you have FPVs come at you from all directions.  It looks like the pulled into tree lines which is right in line with our own doctrine.  They likely abandoned the vehicles because once illuminated, there was little they could actually do against FPV travelling faster than they can.  Which way is “the enemy” when being hit from all directions?

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.