Holien

Interesting strike drones adapted to a very specific set of targets:
 

Latest article from Kofman and Lee in War on the Rocks. 
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Three months In - War on the Rocks
Well worth the read, although it's long.

Interesting read. I'm not certain if these "tree lines" remind CM players of the bocage. 

A while ago, there was a discussion on a Chinese forum where people spoke pessimistically about Ukraine's offensive. One guy listed the difficulties of the terrain. He mentioned that fighting in these tree lines is akin to fighting in the bocage. A small yet determined defender could delay the attacking force for a significant amount of time. In Normandy, under the cover of bocage walls, the German forces maneuvered into the flank of the Allied forces, using panzerschreck and LMG to harass them. In Ukraine, the open fields between the tree lines are much larger than the bocage terrain (ranging from 1km x 1km to 1km x 2km). However, with modern ATGMs' range, the defender's firepower can easily reach the other side. The good news for Ukraine is that the Russian LMGs and HMGs cannot effectively engage at long distances. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainian force will not face fire from a diagonal direction. Nevertheless, this could be bad news for the overwatching Ukrainian soldiers too, as they would be unable to assist if their comrades get bogged down by fire from the other side of the treeline.
 
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This is a highly interesting claim; however, it lacks substantial evidence. While some of Ukraine's video clips record their AFV and infantry firing into the treeline, not many Russian videos depict how they fight on the ground. Some video clips give people the impression that Russians are reluctant to move outside their prepared fighting positions. Therefore, fighting like the Germans, who sent a small detachment to harass the Allied flank, doesn't align with the Russian way of fighting.
The comment above isn't meant to downplay the difficulty of fighting in treelines but rather to argue that it might not be as challenging as fighting in the bocage.
 

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, while on a visit in France, told a story, how small group of 31 fighters maintained success in Robotyne, after weeks of unsuccessful assaults

...One Ukrainian unit had been conducting continuous assaults in this area of the front, and due to exhaustion and losses, at some point, this unit lost the ability to continue the offensive. And then "radical decisions" were made: the unit's leadership was changed.
New commander asked to assemble soldiers who were motivated and ready to perform combat missions. A combined group of 31 soldiers was created, a third of whom had no combat experience, but all of whom had the knowledge and will to win.
Thanks to the leadership of the commanders and sergeants, this group established "horizontal links" with neighbouring units and started working on the contact line. For 18 hours, they crawled literally on their stomachs through kilometres of minefields, where the Russians had placed six mines per square metre.
Finally, the unit reached a strip of trees dividing farmers' fields. Everyone in Ukraine knows this word - "posadka" ("tree-plant, tree-line"). It’s in these plantations, invisible on maps, that the greatest tragedies and heroism of the war take place. So, our unit drove the Russians out of there and held the position for two days until reinforcements arrived. Subsequently, this group walked another 10 kilometres with backpacks weighing 35-40 kilograms through minefields. They only had time to catch their breath briefly and immediately stormed the fortified Russian positions, drove the enemy out and held out until the main forces arrived.
In total, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions in 40 days. A group of 31 men did the work of an entire battalion, which should have consisted of about 400 men. The losses amounted to seven wounded, including only one seriously injured after stepping on a mine.
In fact, the work of this group made it possible for an entire brigade to attack Robotyne and liberate it after weeks of assaults.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/30/7417687/

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.
Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 
Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.
Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

Explosions in Pskov in airport area
PS. Russian milbloggers write about 21 kamikadze drone attack. Some hysterically claim drones were launched from NATO country (Estonia is closest)
Moment of strike.
 
Airfield "Kresty" ("Crosses") on SE outskirt of Pskov - home base of 334th military transport aviation regiment of 61st Air Army of Air Command. 

Video of interception of Russian Orlan UAV by MiG-29 with AA missile. The pilot of this jet was Andriy Pil'shchikov ("Juice"). He was buried today. He had a rank of captain and had been flying on MiG-29 since 2016. Since Feb 24 he had about 500 hours of combat flights. 
 

I recall 2014, when acting Minister of Defense Koval, who recently served in State Border Guard spoke strongly against idea of General Staff to maintain security area in 10-15 km from the border, deploying there troops and armor. Koval argued that in this case border guards can't acomplish own duties properly, so Army have to stand on the border together with them and also any step back even on 10-15 km from the border line will be met negatively by Ukrainians. Koval could find words to convince president Poroshenko in own rightness, so Poroshenko made political decision about deploying of troops on the border, which became fatal - Russians through almost a month shot out them with artillery and MLRS, as result several brigades lost own combat capabilities, because despite human losses were not so big, but units lost 60-70 % of own vehicles. Thus, "filter of border guard" led to catastrofical consequences.   

If somebody too lazy to open this link, here the same from twitter - UKR HIMARSed Russian rare over-the-horizon coastal radar Predel-E ($200 millions cost), which was covered by EW asset Leer-2 (SIGINT+radio comms supression) - it also got own missile. This happened in Zalizhyi Port town on seashore in Kherson oblast. 
Interesting, almost nothing about this radar in open sources except this photo. First time it was introduced on exhibition in 2019. It purpose tracking of vessels and low-altitude aircraft. Developer - Sitronics KT company, specialized on civil systems of coastal equipment. There is no this radar in their catalog. 

Next "fat" target today. HIMARS hit Russian ELINT and SIGINT security complex RB-636AM2 "Svet-KU" in Luhansk oblast
 

Russian TG Fighterbomber confirmed attack on Kursk airfield, but wrote nothing about result of this attack. Instead he described type of drones, used by Ukraine. These were presumably Australian SYPAQ, made with pressed waxed cardboard and equipped with electrical engines. He says this made these drones almost invisible for radars on the ranges, which allow to react timely. Each drone can carry 4-5 kh of HE. Fighterbomber says, these drones were launched as "swarm", but not each had warhead (I suppose, not all warheads detonated - UKR source claimed about 16 launched drones, Russian sources wrote about 13 explosions). He also supposes, if drones had electrical engines, they couldn't be launched from Ukrianian territory to reach Kursk. In Wiki pointed that range of SYPAQ can be 40-120 km depending on load. Closest point is Sumy oblast - 101 km from the border to airfield
First time about SYPAQ drones receiveing became knowingly at the end of May 2023
 

Russian milblogger writes, Ukraine uses guided bombs JDAM of 230 and 960 kg of weight on Zaporizhzhia front. Our jets drop them from 40-75 km of range

Crater of JDAM hit, likely 230 kg (500 lb)


So, on the south we also have airstrike support, not only with low-effective rocket tossing salvos from Su-25 and choppers, but something more heavy and precise, but looks like we hadn't enough quantity of JDAMs to more intensive strikes 

Russians after concentration of reserves in Novoprokopivka area has began to do own usual thing - to trow them in counter-atatcks on Robotyne. To compensate insufficient of effectiveness of own artillery, Russians much more increased number of airstrikes. Despite this UKR troops could repel Russian atatcks on southern part of Robotyne and even more, reportedly UKR troops completely sezed height 166 east from Novoprokopivka, pushing back from there units of 201st MRR regiment of LNR. 
Sitaution around Klishchiivka and Andriivka - UKR troops in recent two weeks were forced to withdrew to heights over Klishchiivka, repelling intensive Russian attacks. As our soldiers say, no more Russian Shtorm Z infantry meat attacks. Now they have a deal against with regular units armored attacks. But their advantage in positions on heights and good artillery work allow to beat up each Russian assault. Now UKR troops again entered to Klishchiivka and reteken several parts of this village. Assault actions inside the village mostly conducring asault brigade "Liut' " ("Rage"), formed from special police units as a part of "Offensive Guard"
The map of heights in section of UKR offensive (height 166 this is probably height 163.7 on this map)

UKR army is now acomplishing tasks and overcoming such obstacles and resistance level, which no army in the world have been encoutering since WWII or Korea. But even during these wars Allies had at least parity in air and in that times there were no drones, long-range guided weapons, EW and other stuff which make these tasks more complicated. But we hadn't variants except to gnau their defense tree-line for tree-line.
A videocollage about fighting for Robotyne
 

Another note re logistics -  in response to HIMARS et al Russia's has dispersed and atomised its supply. No large convoys,  just 1-2 trucks,  in relays,  fast moving, short drop off/load up. 
This is fine when the front is slow but if it kicks off into a sudden surge throughput then RuA logistics could suddenly start failing in cascade because its not able to concentrate sufficient quantities in short enough time, and when it tries to it gets HIMARS up the wazoo. 
UKR strikes have deformed local RUS logistics into a weird, situation specific  and reactive shape, away from an organizationally deep and somewhat operationally sound form. This has created a seemingly flexible approach but it possibly has no sustained surge capacity if the front is suddenly over matched. 
I don't think UKR will be able to out run RUS logs but overwhelm it with a widespread demand it cannot meet. 
I wonder how this would manifest... 

Best guess given what we have seen.

So based on road infrastructure break through to Tokmak and one has expanding operational options.  The greatest Russian military weakness of this war is manoeuvre.  They really suck at it.  They can drive but rapid manoeuvre to effect is not their strong point.  Their artillery and ISR are not set up for it and their C2 is badly built for it.  I would also bet money that their logistics can't support, especially with stuff constantly blowing up in the backfield.  The Russians are good at static warfare.  Digging in and sending wave after wave to die.  Or digging in like a tick and making life difficult.  IF the UA can break through then they can effectively cut that corridor as long as they force the RA into reactive situation that will require rapid manoeuvre. In the area we are talking about that is Tokmak.  Vasylivka is a good secondary because it also greatly expands operational options.
Take Tokmak and Melitopol is 40 kms away, they could sweep that area with ISR and artillery.  This would effectively force the RA MSR along the M14, plus any back country roads...that is a narrow branch to sit on, and the other guy is on the truck with a hand saw.  Could they keep up tempo? Going to have to or the RA will just dig in like a big red blob and they will have to do this all over again next spring.  They do not need to take Melitopol.  In fact that would play to Russia's strength of digging in.  Cut it off and Kherson the place.  Keep expanding the option spaces and get M14 within gun range and this thing is over as far as the strategic land bridge is concerned.

Not so fast. Our TGs write UKR command of advancing brigades concerned with such rapid withdrawal of Russians - this can be a trap with flank strikes and artillery hammering of narrow front from all sides, so UKR troops should to expand own flanks enough in order to not to be cut off and encirlced. I notice, in Novoprokopivka in front of our troops already not Territorial troops mobiks and tired units of 42nd MRD, but fresh VDV units - 108th regimemt and two battalions of 56th regiment of 7th air-assault division. This is serious opponent. 
Western partners say to us "Go, go, go! Winter is coming". I wish to our generals big patience and don't command to our troops in own turn "go, go, go!" like in June...

Hmmm.... Next surprise at the end of Independense Day?
Just RUMINT - this VERY UNVERIFIED for now, but allegedly UKR troops already fight inside Novoprokopivka village and engaged Russians on northern ouskirt of Ilchenkove. Also as if Russian troops now pulling back behind "dragon teeth" line in Solodka Balka
The map of Poulet Volant likely for yesterday situation. Solodka Balka - to south from Ilchenkove. It's unseen on the map.

Tarkhankut has two sites - radar complexes Nebo-M + radar Kasta-2 and SAM site with own radars and launchers.
Yesterday with a missile strike was destroyed S-400 launcher as claimed. Today press-secreter of MoD made a statement except this several S-300 launchers were damaged  
After landing of GUR special force on the cape now is claiming they eliminated and wounded about 30 Russion soldiers and took out four speed boats. Nothing about destroyed radars - maybe they really attacked the barrack of radar personnel in the village. No details.
Later GUR chief Budanov made a statement that in result of these two days of attacks Russian SAM battatlion was "deactivated for some time". Looks like were damaged/destroyed some radars or command post, except known video with firewok of launcher. 
UKR military jourmnalist Yuriy Butuisov claims yesterday in first time UKR Neptun missile hit ground target and this was 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot extreme-low altitude radar, using in newest S-300 and S-400 complexes. But Butosov is a fan of hype and often gives unverified information. So, it's hard to say - either were more missiles launched at the site, than GUR showed, and except S-400 TEL this radar was hit, or this is just Butusov's wrong interpretation
Maybe later new videos will come.  

Who can't open TG here it. Place of attack - E40 road area NW from Bakmhut between Zalizniznianske and Dubovo-Vasylivka 
 

More footage of 22nd Aug incident with Russian jet attack on UKR RHIBs - here you can see how soldiers fire at the jet with small-arms and something like cloud of MANPAD explosion in the sky. Russian jet despite this continues own strafes and you can hear BRRRRT at the end and close hits
 
 

Here is a reason why
The source, familiar with Prigozhyn about death of latter:
Prigozhyn was sure, that Putin will forgive him everything and feared nothing. He told he knows many things [about Putin]... Let's see if anything from his archives shows up. Concerning people, with which Prigozyn has lost. They always were flying all three - Prigozhyn, Utkin, Chekalov. Chelalov was responsible for rear, Utkin for combat part of PMC Wagner.  

Galeotti with the right take: 
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prigozhins-death-has-exposed-putins-weakness/

We already were liberating in 2014 Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mariuopol, Kostiantynivka and many other towns and villages on Donbas, where locals were "on edge", brainwashed and intimidated after Maidan bu Russian propaganda and local semi-crimimnal lords. Many of them, of course even not 50 %, but anyway really many tied own expectations with Russia. They had hopes Russia will come and their level of life and salaries will grow up to Moscow level. Ukriane liberated these cities and what? They in mass became organize partisan squads? No. All what they could do it scold Ukriane on own kitchens or as ecxeption to spy for LDPR. Alas, Ukraine authorities didn't make filtrations in that time and almost all who organize "referendums", almost all local elites, who supported separatists, but didn't flee - almost all remained at power.
So now we can see paradoxal situation - on occupied terririories, which already 9 years could "enjoy" with Russian order, the level of frustration and dissatisfaction with Russia and own puppet rulers is much more than on Donbas territories liberated in 2014, where people hadn't much time to feel all pearls of Russian World. Because of this so many locals, who to this time expect "when our boys will liberate us from banderites", but they in 99 % never will take arms in own hands. This is just difefrence in mentality. Their capability to self-organization, for establishing of decentralized network is too low, in comparison with centaral and western Ukraine. They alway will expect directives of own chiefs. They need "big boss", but anyway even if he will come, most of them will not aste to enlist.
As far as during ATO Russian milblogegrs wrote local men support Russia only by words, but didn't want to enlist in LDPR troops, so units have significant problems with staffing. It's need a big war, that put Donbas men into army by "iron hand power". So, I don't belive in fierce resistance of locals on Donbas. Maybe something can be in part of Crimea, espacially around Sevastopol, where popu;ation is extreme even not so pro-Russian, but pro-Soviet. Citizens of Sevastopol for example hate new settlers, coming to their city from "continental Russia"  

All this people will moslty escape with Russians. You overestimate the level of readiness of locals to resist with arms in own hands. Many of locals are indifferent and just recognize the power of victorious side. About Donbas... Many of men already mobilized and dead - local LDPR units now mostly replenish with Russian mobiks.