Holien

Similarities to the sidelining of Sergei Ivanov in 2016 seem to be happening today in Moscow. Worth noting that the direction of Russian policy didn't change appreciably but instead Putin curtailed the status of potential competitors:  
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html
It will be weeks before the meaning of all of this will become clear but I'd say watch what happens with Patrushev's sons, watch Diumin, watch if there are any changes made in leadership at the Rosgvardia. And whatever you do, don't spend a second on what office Patrushev is offered when all is said and done. He's unlikely in any case to have the influence he exerted up until today unless he overtly or covertly usurps Putin.
 

I wish I could say that love of a platform or system is only an amateur wargamers disease.  I have already seen the reflexive signs of the upcoming arguments.  We will dress them up but in reality we have built identities around these platforms/systems.  Asking someone to change a strong identity, one designed to weather war, is a tall order.  We have generations of senior officers who grew up with the tank as the core of the land warfare tactical system.  Hell, we were still counting them as a metric of combat power in the lead up to this thing.  Even now, I think they are still a threat, but more like nukes...if conditions get to the point that they can be employed, this war is already over.  If the UA collapse and we see a ring of steel outside Kharikiv, or if the UA drives tank columns into Crimea, these are not a sign that "tanks work!" They are a symptom of a much larger collapse. A collapse that had little to do with the tank, or even mech itself. 

You know it is funny, the military conservative crowd really has basically the same three arguments:
- Ukraine War is an anomaly.  A “real” war with the US will be “different”.
- Someone will figure out this drone/ISR thing and we will be back to where we started.
- We will need to keep doing it the old way because there is no new better way.
Ground forces do not advance as fast as you can move people.  They move as fast as one can deliver effect and see.  The core of ground warfare is pulling away from the human being.  At its core is a complex system of ISR and automation.  We already see this in air and maritime domains - when was the last time two warships had to board each other and cross swords on the quarter deck?  The days of the dogfight are now competitive sensing and launching long range missiles 100+ kms away from each other.  Why the land domain thinks it is any different is beyond me but “unless my infantry can still press the bayonet it is not land warfare.”  
Land warfare is evolving. It is what warfare does. The worst answer to it is “let’s spend a ridiculous amount of money preserving the old system”. Spend a ridiculous amount of money on a new system that can keep up. The reality is that direct fires are becoming secondary and the exception, not the rule.  Indirect and over the horizon precision fires are becoming the primary mechanism through which ground warfare is fought. Hell, the signs were there for years as we know artillery and indirect fires are the primary effect component in ground warfare for decades.
This entire tank-thing is simply pressure being put on direct fires by systems that can engage, when plugged into a modern C4ISR architecture, at ranges with which direct fire systems cannot compete.  And here is the thing, I think they may have been right - those that said the tank is dead with the advent of the ATGM. It just took us 40+ years to realize it.
 

These comments do not make any sense:

First off the RA would need to push an encirclement nearly 200kms long.  That is being attacked from without while trying to take a city of 1.4 million and 350 sq kms of urban terrain.  For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take.  In fact there are some theories that Mariupol tied down so many RA forces that their summer '22 failed and it set the conditions for the losses in Fall '22.  Kharkiv is 3-4 times the problem, and the UA was nowhere near as well armed and experienced back in '22. "Encircling Kharkiv" is so militarily stupid that the Russian's might even try it but it may cost them so much as to create conditions for operational collapse elsewhere.
As to LOCs, one need only look at the map to see all of the interior lines that are still open. There is both MSRs and rail.  As to terrain, a quick look shows that the terrain to the west of the city is the same rolling tank country we have come to suspect...with no tank play likely.  To the east there is a major water obstacle that will tie in a right flank tightly.
I mean unless the UA collapses completely this is a major operation to pull off...think a couple hundred thousand troops and air superiority.
Finally, this is the double standard.  The UA establish a bridgehead south of Kherson and it is "a minor raid".  The RA make some minor bridgehead gains on the border and "they are encircling Kharkiv!" In reality this is a secondary front that the RA is trying to open up, likely in the hopes it can take some pressure off the south.  But like everything else, RA offensive-wise, these will likely be nips and bites.  Unless the UA collapses completely, at which point this is all pretty academic in the entirety of Eastern Ukraine.  Of course we have no indications of impending UA collapse, but hey why let that stand in the way?

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...
Let's look at recent past history.
Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?
Has anything changed that will mean they can?
Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?
Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?
Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?
If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?
As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?
But hey let's look at recent past history...
Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?
Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...
So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.
Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.
Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 
Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Not really for this forum but don't be so sure, so quickly..
Trump can't even get 100% votes of the core Republican base. Nikki Haley who stood down from the primary campaign has gotten close to 20% of the Republican base in vital swing states without campaigning!!!
There are a lot of Republicans that won't be fooled a second time around and will vote Biden instead.
You should look more carefully at what is actually happening than assume he will win. There are some strong headwinds, and not just his potential jail time for contempt of court.
Personally I would comfortably bet some donuts that he won't be reelected...
 

This is the kind of thing I would like to see more of:
 
 

Not really for this forum but don't be so sure, so quickly..
Trump can't even get 100% votes of the core Republican base. Nikki Haley who stood down from the primary campaign has gotten close to 20% of the Republican base in vital swing states without campaigning!!!
There are a lot of Republicans that won't be fooled a second time around and will vote Biden instead.
You should look more carefully at what is actually happening than assume he will win. There are some strong headwinds, and not just his potential jail time for contempt of court.
Personally I would comfortably bet some donuts that he won't be reelected...
 

Not really for this forum but don't be so sure, so quickly..
Trump can't even get 100% votes of the core Republican base. Nikki Haley who stood down from the primary campaign has gotten close to 20% of the Republican base in vital swing states without campaigning!!!
There are a lot of Republicans that won't be fooled a second time around and will vote Biden instead.
You should look more carefully at what is actually happening than assume he will win. There are some strong headwinds, and not just his potential jail time for contempt of court.
Personally I would comfortably bet some donuts that he won't be reelected...
 

Not really for this forum but don't be so sure, so quickly..
Trump can't even get 100% votes of the core Republican base. Nikki Haley who stood down from the primary campaign has gotten close to 20% of the Republican base in vital swing states without campaigning!!!
There are a lot of Republicans that won't be fooled a second time around and will vote Biden instead.
You should look more carefully at what is actually happening than assume he will win. There are some strong headwinds, and not just his potential jail time for contempt of court.
Personally I would comfortably bet some donuts that he won't be reelected...
 

https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112410337183781506
https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/p7It5EGgQ9c

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries
article on the strikes to Russian refineries, i would pull paragraphs out but frankly, the entire article is essential,  basically lays out why these attacks are having a big effect on Russia but not to the global economy.

The first premise is true.
The second is ... well, he's not a *good* businessman, and he really only seems at all interested in grifts where he, personally, can get get free money without contributing any stake. He doesn't appear to have any interest in making America as a whole, and especially any bits of it that refuse to fawn over him, great again.
The third premise is just swallowing a lie, whole.
He'll definitely take credit for everything that isn't obviously a screwup. That much is for sure.

OK, my answer to the question "what is Putin actually up to?" (which should be read with a massive dose of skepticism, as it involves making a theory of mind of man having massively more information and usually thinking in massively different way than I; i.e., a wild guess)
1. Putin thinks the war will end through Donald Trump becoming the President of the US and successfully implementing his plan to pressure Ukraine politically into armistice on the basis of status quo in early 2025.
2. Therefore, the war has a probable end date in early 2025 which is based  on external political considerations and not dependent on any actions of Ukraine or Russia. All territorial gains must occur in 2024 and on the other hand, the risk of all losses is also limited in time to 2024. Timeline after early 2025 does not matter much - Russia is not worried about NATO or the Ukraine rekindling the conflict at any reasonable time after 2024, and even if its army is generally wrecked, it thinks it will always be beenough to defend the armistice line (even provided that NATO and the UKR muster political will sufficient to even think of restarting the war). 
3. Therefore Russian army is going all in to maximise territorial gains in 2024, particularly in the Donbass area which Russia claims to be its own, but has not conquered it yet. If they are successful in Donbas or if they statemate in Donbass, they may try to do the same thing in the Zaporozhie area. They do not care about the losses, they do not care about the war materiel stocks (they know they won't be attacked) and they do not care that much about their economy either, which they think will somehow limp through the rest of 2024 anyway, and Russians will start rebuilding it in from 2025.
 

Two times olympic weightlifting champion Oleksandr Pielieshenko gave his life while in service of the 47th Brigade

Some footage from contested riverine areas of Kherson oblast
Drone operators of 123rd TD brigade (Mykolaiv oblast) set YaRM riverine anchor mine from the drone and Russian boat has found it
Several days ago UKR troops gained control over Nestryha island in Dnipro estuary. But local commanders hurried to report to high comamnd "island is ours!" and this was issued in daily GS report, when UKR troops didn't firmly secure the island and gained foothold. As usual from both sides local commanders don't hurry to report about lost positions higher in order not to be fu..d and try to solve the problem by own forces until the fail will be obvious. But when higher HQs know about fails in first order from enemy official reports or social networks they fu...k lower HQs in 10 times harder, so Russians several days have been assaulting heavuly Nestryha, but without success. Their attempts are continuing. 
 
Reportedly UKR troops after mass fire and FPV strikes managed to expand zone of control in Krynky on 1km more to west

Russians activated on Berdiansk direction and assaults Urozhaine village. They managed to seize farm and tractor workshop on southern outskirt of the village
58th mot.inf brigade shows how it fights with Russian assault groups
 
 
Rare episode of tank-vs-tank. UKR T-64BV has destroyed Russian probably T-72 in frontal semisphere. Two BMPs with assault groups, followed T-72 turned and retreated after the tank has gone
The thread with photos of Russian vehicles losses near Urozhaine (author names it "Vuhledar" and Urozhaine is really in 31 km W from Vuhledar, but this Berdiansk, not Vuhledar operative direction).
Probably the video with the same summary losses
 

100km 155mm?
Is this the unholy baby of a missile and a shell?
If Ukraine can reduce the GPS jammers, these could have interesting applications.

https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine
This is encouraging.