cyrano01

I don’t think the age or capabilities of the platforms are deterministic. They need to hook into the Ukrainian C4ISR and carry the AIM 120, as such they are a threat the RuAF cannot discount.  This will reinforce the air denial situation which is about as good as it gets in this war with respect to AirPower.  There is already a lot of noise on dogfight capability but in reality Ukraine just needs a missile carrier that can move quickly and go where the ISR network tells it to.  This, along with other capability stacks up and keeps Russian air power at stand off, which will be critical in a ground offensive.  The F16 is a capable module in a much broader air denial system, so it is good news.

So this is what shaping looks like.  If true, this would be a very effective way to get Russian forces moving away from the areas of a planned major offensive.  Indirect approach of employing Russian insurgents is a brilliant stroke, a proxy war within a proxy war.  Not sure if this is just hopeful rumor but we could be seeing the start of the offensive.

Here is the full document: https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
First time I have heard any credible reporting that the RA is capable of intercepting HIMARs - albeit within a pretty narrow context.  All other sources of RA AD on HIMARs is a cesspool of Russian propaganda.
However, a lot of this report does ring true on what needs to be prioritized in supporting the UA - and it is not tanks or F16s.  It is artillery, counter-battery specifically along with ammunition. EW - particularly C-UAS. Assault Engineering. And training.
The authors themselves put a lot of provisos up front. What is curious is that if the RA has solved for a lot of UA capability, then why have they continued to fail on the offence?  For example if thermal camouflage is so effective then why are Russian tanks still staying back kms?  If they have created advanced tactical C4ISR networks, why are those tactical units still unable to really make gains?
Of course the UA, which is the primary source of the information of this report are not stupid.  It is in their best interest to emphasize the challenges in order to build up sufficient support for the upcoming offensive.  I would not accuse the interviewed pers of outright lying but emphasis in a certain direction does make a lot of sense. I recall hearing similar stories back last summer as well.
One way or the other we are going to find out just how robust the RA defence is or is not. I strongly suspect the RA is as capable as described in this report, however, only in selected and prioritized locations.  That is a massive frontage that they are trying to hold with a severely mauled force. The ability to create and sustain a massive HIMARs-proof wall of AD in depth along a 850km frontage is highly doubtful. As is an ability to sustain indirect fires superiority, everywhere.
Now if Russia is able to do this, however, it can only do it on static defence.  And if the UA cannot crack it.  Well we truly have entered into a defensive warfare primacy era.  Corrosive warfare for the UA will have been blunted and we are back to slow grinding attrition that could take years.  Personally, I do not believe this is the case.  Too many signs of systemic failures within the Russian military machine. I also do not see the RA able to match or cope with Ukrainian C4ISR superiority at operational and strategic levels.  
Out of all of this the largest threat is evolution of Russian AD - if the RA can start to create scions of Iron Dome then a key pillar of the UA capability suite starts to fail - long range precision fires.  If that goes, then the ability to interdict LOCs/C-moves, hit RA C2 nodes and hammer logistics becomes challenged.  So I am not sure what advanced SEAD capabilities we have in the back but I would start shouting about them far more than tanks, F-whatever’s and better missiles.  That and other long range systems that RA AD cannot solve for, like stealth mesh net drone swarms.
The authors also hit on the primacy of evolving tactics and training.  The problem here is that the west doesn’t have that.  We have our tactics and training, of which there is little proof of their effectiveness on these battlefields. The experts on whatever this war has turned into are in the UA fighting it.  We can support them on the basics, such as field craft, small unit organization etc.  But the larger evolutions are well outside out experience - that one is going to have to be the UA, and then we can hire them to teach us once this war is over.
In warfare the answer to an evolving opponent is very simple: evolve faster.

That, Mr Burke, is because, for all your protests about senescence setting in, you remain sharp-minded. There are a lot of dullards out there* who will not look past what they're told, by people who have myopic vision themselves whose interests do not align with those of Ukraine.
* By "out there" I mean "beyond this forum".
p.s. While I'm addressing the point directly, this isn't really aimed at sburke, more as a hopeful dig to remind others that not everyone sees things the way "we" do, even as generally as that can be a true statement, and that those people have, or seek, with some prospect of attaining, power.

The difference between these two images fills me with hope for the future of Ukraine after this war.

The other point that occurs to me regarding Storm Shadow is that it gets Western supplies to Ukraine across another threshold, in this case for longer range precision weapons. The relatively small size of UK stock piles means that while the contributions may be valuable they will be of only moderate impact on their own but it does seems that the UK acts as stalking horse to push the escalation boundaries.
 
We saw it with Challenger, the first current gen MBT pledged,  where the numbers were small but the UK anouncement was followed by the US and other NATO memebers anouncing Abrams and Leopard 2 deliveries. I'm just wondering if Storm Shadow is testing the waters for ATACMS, and giving the Ukrainians the chance to show they can be relied on to use the capability responsibly. Hope so becuase we don;t have all that many Storm Shadows to give.

When it was announced, it was for 200 "now", plus 200 per year ongoing. Sounds like "manufacture rate" to me. Complex things, but should be able to manage 8 a week, surely... So, a quarter of our current stock, and half the factory output for the forseeable.

They are not comparable. On paper Aegis is supposed to have far better performance. See the pic below. Patriot PAC3 is a terminal phase interceptor with very short window of opportunity to intercept SRBM and MRBM (see the blue dots there?), Patriot's speed is too low to work on an IRBM.

 
The yellow Aegis BMD line in the graphic seems to be representing RIM-161 SM3,  an Exo-atmospheric interceptor.
As you can see , the right end of the yellow line does not extend to the x-axis, because SM3 doesn’t work in Endo-atmospheric. That makes this graphic a little misleading as the SM2 and SM6, two Endo-atmospheric interceptors deal with terminal phase interception also belong to Aegis BMD. They have better performance compared to Patriot PAC3, although they will have trouble to deal with IRBM.
 
Put hypersonic weapon hypothesis, Kh-47 kinzhal is just an air launched Iskander SRBM with a limited maneuverability MaRV . It’s flight profile might be very similar to DF-21D and YJ-21 ASBM, but I guess DF-21D is the hardest to be intercepted due to its terminal speed. There is no way for Patriot PAC3 to intercept a DF-26B, an IRBM with anti-ship roles. That’s when you need SM3 to intercept before the RV from the IRBM dive into the terminal phase.
 
So far there is no indication that the HGV from DF-17 has the anti-ship capability. But due to the HGV’s flight profile, it will make the detection very very hard, and it is also operating on upper edge of the atmosphere so SM3 is useless in the face of this threat. Also due to its flight profile, HGV won’t have a great potential energy to convert into speed at terminal phase, so THAAD and SM6 should be able to intercept that but it is still too fast and maneuver for Patriot PAC3. We don’t have any open source to study on this, this is just my guess
 
Anyway, the key to successfully intercept a ballistic missile is not about the interceptor missile’s performance, its more about early warning, detection and classification.  There are some discussions on this topic in Matrix game forum CMO section, I can see if I can find the discussion.

Their stockpiles of Storm Shadow aren't that small are they? I thought they had around 800, with plans to replace them within a decade. So that means they could potentially spare hundreds (I'm guessing low hundreds, since I doubt the UK will hand over all of them before they have a replacement) of Storm Shadows for Ukraine.

The other point that occurs to me regarding Storm Shadow is that it gets Western supplies to Ukraine across another threshold, in this case for longer range precision weapons. The relatively small size of UK stock piles means that while the contributions may be valuable they will be of only moderate impact on their own but it does seems that the UK acts as stalking horse to push the escalation boundaries.
 
We saw it with Challenger, the first current gen MBT pledged,  where the numbers were small but the UK anouncement was followed by the US and other NATO memebers anouncing Abrams and Leopard 2 deliveries. I'm just wondering if Storm Shadow is testing the waters for ATACMS, and giving the Ukrainians the chance to show they can be relied on to use the capability responsibly. Hope so becuase we don;t have all that many Storm Shadows to give.

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.
This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

Yes. But. 
Any society in case of war divides on six groups
1. I must go at war immediately to defend my country. This is my obligation like man and citizen.
2. I will go as I will be ready (to have additional training, to finish some projects etc)
3. The war is terrible, I fear, but I understand this is my obligation to defend country in case of war, so I will go, when I will drafted.
4. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, I never served in army, but the law is law, I have no choice if I will be drafted
5. The war is terrible, I fear, I don't want go at war, better I escape aboard illegally or for bribe 
6. Law? Сonstitution? Country? "F...k on all this! Nation is social construct! I'm "citizen of world"/ "let stupid plebs die in trenches - I'm too high educated (or rich) person for this dirt!" / "what f...g obligations! Let the state maintains my rights initially!" / "I'm pacificst" 
 
Since first two already at war completely, we have only 3-6. Our Constitution says that defending of the state in case of war is obligation of everybody citizen. Our drafting law allows to issue summons to army in any place. So nothing illegal if you get in on ski resort. But this article describe this in some apocaliptic way. Ski resorts weren't so empty as they write. 
Our order of summoning is next:
1. Issuing the summon to enlistment center
2. Cheking of your data in enlistment center. If you havn't milityary ID you will get it. 
3. Medical checking 
4. If you are recognized as fit of partially fit for service, you have two ways after p.3 - either you get mobilization issue and go to training center (40-60 % of probability) or you go home and wait when you will be need (enlistment office can call you through two weeks, two months, or can don't call at all)
 
But most of people of categories 5-6 (and many among 4th) thing that after p.1 they will be immediately sent to Bakhmut trenches. This, Russian and local "anti-drafting" propaganda from some "human rights activists" make own work among these people. So all "violent drafting" incidents has the same scenario:
- Greetings! We are representatives of X enlistment office. According the laws and Constitution of Ukraine we give to you summoning to enlistmemnt center. Please, show your passport and military ID (if you have latter)
- Whaaaat?! You have no rights! I read in internet!!! You must to visit me at home!!! But I will not open the door to you, moth...rs! Fu..k yo off!! Go from my way ! 
- Citizen, you are vilolate the law. You must show your documents and put a sign on summoning!
- Fu...k off!!! You, bastards! Guys shed own blood on frontline, but you are catching usual people in deep rear! Catch a son of oligarch! Why me?! I don't want go at the war! I have <1000 reasons> to stay home! 
- Documents please! 
- AAAA!!! Fu..k you! You will not force me!!!! You have no rights! Get this! *try to punch*
- *radio* bring a bus here, we have a client, will be pack him now.
Latter is not regulated by laws clearly. Militaries probably can't detain civilian by force, but police can do this, so they should call police, or policeman should be in their patrol.    
But on video you anyway can see only last part of dialogue, but never from what all started. This caused illusio of "mass violent mobilisation". 
Though, problems with mobilization exists. Many of those, who have money and havn't conscience already bought "white tickets" in the same enlistment offices or medical committees. Medical commission is often very formal, especially in district centres. From villages and small towns enlistment offices take almost all - and then commanders have many problems with unmotivated and drunken personnel. But if you have a money and you turned out in army at all, you can pay monthly "tax" to your commander and you will sit in place of unit dislocation or at leat in "third line". 
Drafting is going continuously. It never paused since Day 1. In some month it can be mass like in December-March of this year, in some month it can be almost inconspicuous.  
 

One today's deep strike wasn't mentioned here - Russian airfield Seshcha in Briansk oblast (this oblast again!) - 180-190 km to the border of Ukriane, Chernihiv direction. 556th airlifting aviation regoment. Single transport aviation unit in Russia, having An-124 Ruslan. Reportedly 5 UAVs atatcked airfield. Two were shot down with AA-guns and small-arms, two struck airfield, one UAV couldn't find. In result of attack one disabled (due to Russian sources) An-124 was slightly damaged. 
 

Russian TGs alarming about hundered convicts from Samara oblast are encircled in "Bilohorivka indusrial zone", Luhansk oblast (probably means water pump stattion SE from village), which they could seize about week ago, but because of absens of support, UKR troops encircled them. Many of convicts already killed and wounded, but their brigade comamnd doesn't resque them. They were attached to 123rd motor-rifle brigade (former 2nd motor-rifle brigade of LPR)
Convicts human resourse became one of apples of discord between Shoigu and Prigozhyn. Now Shoigu and MoD disrupted a monopoly of Prigozhyn and almost pushed him out from this "slave market". But in in Wagner convicts got minimal, but intensive training, which allowed to solve them primitive tasks, that convicts in regular army have very formal training. And much worse, when they are attached to LDPR troops. In these units they are "third sort people"    

What is weird about this one is that the UA did not need to construct the "most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world in many decades" and they held off multiple assaults that went on for months all along the line.  

Heh
I once dug a pit down through a rabbit warren, lots of kyoot kittens to deal with after that.
But the worst was digging in at the training area near Singleton, in NSW. The whole area is an iron pan, so it's tink-tink-tink for hours, moving about a teaspoon of dirt at a time. Then, come dawn, we found we'd dug down through a nest of now very angry inchies. Giving up on that spot we moved a few metres away and tink-tink-tinked our way down again, this time through a nest of fire ants.
**** Australia.

With Australia's reputation I'd call that a win. If I randomly dug a hole in the ground in Australia, I'd expect to unearth some kind of invertebrate venomous enough to kill a small elephant by looking at it.

Since I am not above shamelessly stealing a joke from Reddit:
 
Are we sure that is an oil depot on fire and not Admiral Kuznetsov pulling into Sevastopol harbour?

Lol. Only clown armies use cartoons for instructional purposes.

 
 
 
 
 

There is a point on the circle where the far-left and far-right meet and this is pretty close to it.  The mechanics are the same, connect a whole bunch of phenomena, many of them that are in isolation of each other - e.g. homelessness and MKUltra.  Then tie them together with logic strings to create a unifying construct - in this case Western Satan.
The problem is that 1) many of these phenomena are in fact disconnected as there are no star chambers just people being mean to other people - the red scare violations of human rights is not in the same bin as lynchings.  2) the fact that anyone has access to these historical examples and can openly cite them is proof against a massive oppressive western regime that spans generations, and 3) completely misses all the good and right these western systems have done, worse dismisses it as social background radiation when in fact it was the main effort.
This method is a sort of reverse social contrasting because all one is seeing are the lynchings, CIA plots, cop shootings and homeless.  If one stares at that long enough it is easy to believe that is the core and not indeed the background radiation of macro-social evolution in the western world.  There are societies where these sorts of activities were far more central to maintaining order and control as has been noted.  They do not complain about police brutality and cite internet stories to back them up in North Korea because they are living in a truly brutal dictatorship.
I have worked defence and security my entire adult life - there is not massive conspiracy led by the far [insert villain] trying to control you through a weird Goldberg-esque complicated scheme. There is a government trying to keep 300+ million primates wired for fear response from killing each other.  While at the same time trying to keep the other 7.7 billion scared primates from either killing you, or each other too fast.  The good news is that this “sinister and highly corrupt system” has essentially worked.  We are better off now than we have ever been in history.  Do not believe me?  Google stuff like child mortality or literacy, or healthcare.  You wanna talk “big unfair prisons” do some research on the 19th century legal system.  
People are not “seeing the matrix” in spite of nasty government control, they are seeing it because of government protections - as imperfect as they may be.

In today's article Mashovets gives other information about quantity of Russian troops and expalins why Russians actions now more similar to WW1 "infantry+artillery", because they have big lack of armor. And this is one more reason, why they make a bet on aviation, artilelry and as told today Budanov of mass missile strikes on UKR troops, when they will begin to grouping for offensive.  
So, as if according to his info "Russian Federation combined groupment of troops on South-Western Theater" (official Russian name of their army in Ukraine. Hm... if theer is south-western theater exists, then it's can be north-westren, for example, against Baltia) has:
- 1764 tanks
- 4289 armored vehicles
- 2994 artillery pieces 
- 870 MLRS
- 396 200 personnel  (it's unclear this is MoD troops only or with PMCs and Rosgvardiya)
 
All theese forces are in 48 brigades, 122 regiments, 95 separate battalions and 50 detachments of battalion-level. 
All 396K of troops is 655 conditional battalions, if we throw out artillery (approx 1:3), we get about 490 batatlions. But indeed with all available Russian armor can be equipped only 59 conditional tank battalion and 143 motor-rifle battalions - total 202. So, Russians have about 50 % of deficite in armor. Also because of this their new established tank/motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops in most case either have big lack of armor or almost don't have it at all  
 
 

This does assume that the RA can swing those guns to and from Close and General support quickly (building on your note #1)  Based on what we saw at Severodonetsk last summer RA fire planning seems pretty linear, which may lean more the way Steve added it up.  In fact I would bet good money that have plotted out rigid sector fire support that is pretty static compared to western doctrine.  RA C2 has not shone in this war, I have my doubts as to it somehow stepping out of the phone booth now. Of course the UA should help this along where they can.

If this is true then they have shifted forces dramatically into this area.  If we recall the intel leak on force density there was nowhere with greater than about 250 pers per km.  So in order to focus this force size the RA will have had to bleed off other areas of the line a LOT.  This is also a pretty dangerous concentration easily seen by the UA.  There must be other areas of the line that are basically abandoned.
So the RA clearly got the message on the “strategic land bridge”.  My bet is the UA will attack elsewhere to pull that density away and then attrit them as they try to relocate.

True, but speed of reaction and 'stickiness' of engagement matter. An artillery battalion can be engaging a target "over there" one minute, then switch to engaging a different target 25km away "over that'a way" literally 5 mins later, then back again 5 mins later, then to a third completely different location 5 mins after that.
Once you commit tanks or IFVs to a battle, they're pretty much stuck there for at least the rest of the day. You might be able to pull them out overnight and commit them to a different battle maybe 30-odd kms away tomorrow, but that's about the best you can hope for.
Perhaps. That doesn't make it sensible though For one thing, it undercounts what can be expected by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude, it ignores C2 freedoms and constraints, and ignores qualitative differences in equipment. By that I mean that say - for example - both sides have exactly the same number of guns - 160 guns to cover 160km of front. In that case they are 'evenly matched' at 1 gun per km. But suppose one side has yewbeut guns and extended range ammo, which gives them twice the range; 60km vs 30km. Both still have 1gun/km, but one side can expect to face 80 guns anywhere along the front, while the other will only be opposed by 40 - a 2:1 advantage.

Wagners became to use experimental "trench EW" systems like "Strizh" jammer and universal asset "Repeinik", which is 3 in 1  - GSR, drone detector and drone jammer. This staff was developed from civilian purpuse devices for money of Prigozyn company. Russan MoD is also interested in this, so now manufacturers try to deploy production of this equipment in series. Of course, these devices can't be deployed immediately during assaults, but Wagners actively use it in own close rear and often close to important assault directions to detect and jam UKR drones. This equipment shows own enough effectiveness, so UKR side now tries to spot them and this is one of priprity targets. Theer were several videos, of strikes on this devices. Though, this equipment can supress only civilian frequencies 800 MHz/2.4 GHz/5 GHz, using by Chinees commercial drones. Against special Ukrainian developments like Furia, Shark, Leleka it usuless. I have no info about FPV drones.