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chrisl

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  1. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We are people with opinions, experience, and knowledge? Also, I hate to break this to you, but no one in this thread is talking to the Ukrainian Govt, let alone telling them what to do. We talking to each other, and in this specific case we're trading opinions.
    In my opinion, DPICM is primarily a defensive weapon which can be effective in certain circumstances. In my opionion it was developed at a time when neither precision artillery nor precision air-to-ground weapons were serious propositions, and so a (largely successful) effort was made to smear-out out the payload of rounds across the target area to increase the likelihood of achieving some effect. In my opinion the relative utility of DPICM has declined with the advent of of PGMs, and while the dud rate might be better now for routine targets the risk/reward calculus doesn't justify it when there are other better options available.
    Would my opinion see more friendly combat casualties? Maybe, although that would be very hard to prove either way (and don't forget to count the EOD guys who have a bad day). Would my opinion lead to fewer children and civilian deaths and injuries? I think that's pretty clearly a yes.
    Am I comfortable trading soldiers for civilians? Of course yes. That's the /point/.
     
  2. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That it's a different design and not susceptible to the same kind of failure shouldn't be taken as a challenge to find a new way to make a comparable radioactive mess.
  3. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That it's a different design and not susceptible to the same kind of failure shouldn't be taken as a challenge to find a new way to make a comparable radioactive mess.
  4. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That it's a different design and not susceptible to the same kind of failure shouldn't be taken as a challenge to find a new way to make a comparable radioactive mess.
  5. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That it's a different design and not susceptible to the same kind of failure shouldn't be taken as a challenge to find a new way to make a comparable radioactive mess.
  6. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm going to say, if the mobik cubes (notice the pun) are real, they are very darkly hilarious.
    The Russians who were for years completely unable to do logistics in 20th not to mention 21st century way are going to start using palettes for transporting something ... and the something is bodies of their soldiers in the most inhumanly ****ed up way possible?
    It can't get any more Russian Army than that, I am sure.
  7. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Seems like RU has been given "not one step back" orders and are trying to hold everything, everywhere.  To do this they are losing men & material that won't be able to fall back on the next line.  And best of all they are committing reserves very early on in this fight.  Bakhmut is a nice place where UKR is fixing RU forces at low cost. 
    There's 3-4 months more in the campaigning season and RU is being corroded heavily while UKR can replace it's material losses and some of its losses in soldiers.  While I really want the big breakthrough, I realize how UKR is playing a smarter, lower risk game than throwing all the dice right now.  And there's corrosion at the political levels also following the clown coup failure.
  8. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They have beaten the Russian Army to a pulp with our thirty year old leftovers, and actually indicted a justice  of their supreme court for corruption. Two accomplishments The U.S. has notably not achieved.
  9. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Poles would be In Minsk in 3 days, The Finns in Moscow in a week. The would be shaking hands in front of the Winter Palace in St Petersburg in 24 hours, scratch that TWELVE hours. Literally, absolutely, nothing is holding Russia together except nukes. 
  10. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Ales Dvorak in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was thinking more like this
     

  11. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    it is the same video. Here are main points
    Evkurov and Alekseyv are old farts who decide nothings Prig - they shoot at us, we down them and will down everybody you would send because you are hitting civilians. You just destroyed a bus with civilians. you have no conscience [looks like they talk about RU helicopter attacks. Everybody is calm, MOD guys are calm and curious] Evkurov [a bit confused] - it is first time i hear it and [inaudible - some thing like let us..interupted as Prig turns toward Alekseyev] Alekseyev [in hilariously theatrical way] - I am not going to talk to you! Prig [slightly confused and humiliated old man turn to Evkurov] We were talking using You [plural - respectable form] why we started using You [singular - not respectable form]. Why do you talk to me using You [singular]?  Evkurov [confused] Nobody talk [to you] like that. I say do not generalize. Do you talk [to me] using You [plural] Prig - Yes, I talk to you using You [plural] Evkurov - so if we say [inaudible] Prig nodes. Evkurov - Let's think what we should do Prig - One more time, we came here to get [saying a bit theatrical] a chief of general staff and Shoigu. While they are not here...  Alekseyev [theatrically joking] take/grab them [like saying they, people of RU MOD, do not need these two, so Prig is free to take them]  Prig - While they are not here, we stay here and [continue to] block Rostov Evkurov [absolutely calmly, softly and politely but bit confused]- then I would like to ask you to get your troops out [inaudible] Prig - No! No way. Guys will stay here.  Evkurov - We also from this point of view... Prig - We do interrupt you from controlling the troops [in the field] Evkurov - Yes, certainly you should not interrupt anybody from controlling the troops [inaudible] Prig [calmly] Guys are dying because you are pushing them to be meat  Evkurov pickups ringing phone while saying to Prig - This is a question... Prig - This is not rhetorical question, because you are pushing them to be meet... no ammo, no thinking, without any plans   Evkurov to phone - hallo, yes [listens a bit, then looks confused and cancels the call - looks like some jornos called him] Alekseyev [calmly] - the biggest thing that upsets me most [inaudible something like you give Kiev something to celebrate with champaign] Prig - Nothing to worry about Evkurov [calmly drinks hot tea as if they are at old farts gathering] Prig - party at Kiev with champaign happens when you abandon Izum, Lyman and everything else. That's when party at Kiev happens for a whole week. And we are not running away from anywhere [Says man who ran away from Bakhmut]. Tha't why we came here to stop the shame of the country we live in. This is first [I  wanted to say] Evkurov [a bit ashamed] - [iaudible] are you were at [or ours something] Prig - Certainly, Yes, for this we Evkurov - [iaudible] why questions [could be to us] Prig [getting agitated] - listen one more time, if we would talk in normal tone, we would not come here on tanks Somebody behind camera - [iaudible something about shells - you promised us shells] Evkurov - [iaudible something like - you think Shoigy and Gerasimov to blame?] Prig [satisfied] - Yes, absolutely right. We save Russia The whole performance remind me old farts from last coupe (GKCHP) in 1991. The old farts pretending they know what they are doing and serving as cover for Yetsin rise. 
     
  12. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Seems like a useful trick.
  13. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Those seem like two separate objects in slightly different locations.  Dual warheads on a single missile has to be fractions of a second apart unless the first deploys off the front of the missile well before hitting.  A few seconds for a pair of falling object is quite a separation in distance.
  14. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sawyer filters are very cheap ($20 retail) and very effective at removing microbes.  You can filter a couple liters in a few minutes - in Oregon I just keep one in my camelback so I can get water anywhere.  Put the factory on extra shifts and ship them to Ukraine.
  15. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Longbow can just stick the radome above the treetops and leave the rest of of chopper below LOS.  Some versions can even pass target information to neighbors so the ones doing the shooting can stay low and fire based on data from the longbow.  Way too much power draw to pout on a drone- it would mean sending apaches.  Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
    I also like the idea of using loitering drones- turbines and drones don’t mix, even if the drone is unarmed.  A few kg of HE with some tungsten balls down the intake can make a mess of the turbine.  Probably won’t take down the helicopter if it’s a twin engine (failures probably will be contained if the engine is designed well), but will be a mission kill and cost RU an expensive engine.
  16. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sawyer filters are very cheap ($20 retail) and very effective at removing microbes.  You can filter a couple liters in a few minutes - in Oregon I just keep one in my camelback so I can get water anywhere.  Put the factory on extra shifts and ship them to Ukraine.
  17. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?
  18. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm a bit puzzled as to why these four things will be true. Surely the liberated areas won't be so huge relative to the already-defended lands that moving the AD and CB umbrellas forward (judiciously, once the superior CB of the UKR has whittled the Russian artillery down to local ineffectiveness) to cover the crunchies' advanced positions, will they?
    Maintaining artillery superiority is another reason for a broad advance. If you generate a salient, you have to put your CB assets into the salient to be able to reach the enemy's batteries that are "in front" of the projection in your lines, which brings your long-ranged CB assets into range of shorter-ranged enemy fires to the sides of the pocket. Which is obviously suboptimal. So you need a broad, uniform front of advance, so that the enemy is always "in front" of you, not to the sides. Patton would have a fit.
  19. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RU are saying UKR just hit HQ of 80th Brigade (AFAIR it is at Novodarivka-Stepove of Berdyanks direction)
  20. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sawyer filters are very cheap ($20 retail) and very effective at removing microbes.  You can filter a couple liters in a few minutes - in Oregon I just keep one in my camelback so I can get water anywhere.  Put the factory on extra shifts and ship them to Ukraine.
  21. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not artillery, but we have definitely seen hovering helicopters hit by ATGM.
    Twice in exactly the same place. Because Russia.
  22. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thinking about the drone vs helicopter more. What you want is a longer endurance fixed wing drone. And allow me to reiterate that it is the best case for autonomy ever. There is not a civilian helicopter within a hundred kilometers of the front line, probably far more than that. Give the drone a a rational kill box and instructions to kill anything with a rotor, and a self destruct for when it runs out of fuel. I would even attempt to give it a non-gps guidance system to make it less jammable. Ukraine has to take far worse risks with civilian lives, and well the the Russians have been VERY busy proving they deserve to hunted like the unpleasant creature of your choice. 
    Edit: ust realized I copied Fancy Pants.
  23. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hang a sidewinder from one of the big drones.
  24. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is also an extremely good case for an autonomous system. There are no neutral/civilian helicopters over a war zone. If you know you aren't using any helicopters in a given box, a fully autonomous drone that just looked for anything with a rotor blade makes a ton of sense.
  25. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Longbow can just stick the radome above the treetops and leave the rest of of chopper below LOS.  Some versions can even pass target information to neighbors so the ones doing the shooting can stay low and fire based on data from the longbow.  Way too much power draw to pout on a drone- it would mean sending apaches.  Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
    I also like the idea of using loitering drones- turbines and drones don’t mix, even if the drone is unarmed.  A few kg of HE with some tungsten balls down the intake can make a mess of the turbine.  Probably won’t take down the helicopter if it’s a twin engine (failures probably will be contained if the engine is designed well), but will be a mission kill and cost RU an expensive engine.
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