Budget cuts in NATO module countries

[Waaarg]

The south asked journalists to leave as they can't guarantee their safety. That is a pretty serious announcement. China has agreed ton try to contain the situation but issued warnings of their own to not stray too close during the exercises.

China has an interest in Kim and son stay in power, but I'm not sure what is more important. A buffer state, or economic reasons. They are concerned about refugees, but the supply a lot of goods to NK, enough to cripple the military and ensure sanctions won't do much. Does anyone have more insight to why forcing NK hasn't been an option in the past and why it's been important to remain allied for the Chinese?

[Sivodsi]

yep, China's position is raising ire in Sth Korea.

What if the North launches a nuclear missile at Seoul? China would say that both nations need to settle problems through talks while turning a blind eye to the assault

The above two links note some of the other ways China is seen as encroaching on Korea's sovereignty over their history and independence. China is Sth Korea's biggest trade partner, but China's position of support of Nth Korea is raising hackles over here.

Why does China support the North so much? Don't forget that China spilt a lot of blood defending North Korea from the capitalist US backed demons in the South. If you go to Beijing you have to check out the army museum for their take on events, it is an interesting contrast to the perspective that we read in our history books. What you see there is the Red Army stepping in to defend the gallant Nth Koreans, and pushing the enemy back to Seoul at enormous cost to themselves. You get the full story of the suffering of the soldiers in the winter, and yeah, the soldiers behind picking up the rifle of their dead comrade, and so on.

After this suffering they can't just cede Nth Korea to the South.

At the same time, the North is an independent country. China has influence over them, but they don't control them. Over history Korea has been feistily independent, though it was not uncommon over the millenia for various Korean factions to call on Chinese to fund or send armies in. But the Koreans, despite paying tribute at various times to the Chinese, have always maintained independence.

Not to mention the pride that the Chinese population generally hold for themselves becoming world leaders once again after a brief period of humiliation. The leadership cannot afford to be seen backing down by their own people. The Chinese elites' position is not as absolute as they might seem.

So, China supports Nth Korea as a bulwark against the west and absolutely does not want to see a reunited Korea aligned with the US. They will step in again to make sure the current regime in some form maintains control.

[Lethaface]

I wasn't aware of this social sentiment among their populations, but I don't think that would influence strategic decisions on a macro scale.

For the rest I think you are quite on spot, China ('s leaders) can't just walk away with this without losing their honor. You know how important honor is to Asians, right?

Perhaps it would be better for everyone if China goes for a ONKF (Operation North Korea Freedom) after a so called 'coup' was committed by NK Military in which the Great Leader, obviously, loses his worldly representation.

A NK state with pseudo-communism/capitalism but stable leadership like China would probably be accepted by all parties except NK.

[Erwin]

Re Erik's post re China's gas: "They buy on the open market, but also have their own operations in Africa. They are in the process of buying large concessions in Nigeria, and are already present in Sudan, Angola, Mozambique. They have also contracts with Iran."

Basically, this puts China in a bad place akin to Japan's prior to WW2. Figuring out where oil is and who needs it provides pretty good indicators of where the world trouble spots are likely to be.

[Erik Springelkamp]

Just in from WikiLeaks: the US promised China delivery of Saudi oil in case the Iranian contracts would falter because of the new sanctions that were approved by China.

> Basically, this puts China in a bad place akin to Japan's prior to WW2.

No more so than the USA, I would think.

Where is the US waging or threatening war? Coincidence?

[Erwin]

Well, just as prior to WW2, the European and US owned most of the oil resources in the far east, and used that as a weapon to control other countries like Japan. Countries in that position soon get resentful etc. War is almost always about economic resources.

[Lethaface]

"War is a racket"

The operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have at least made sure that the resources from those countries aren't controlled by China. Which, from the US point of view, is a positive thing. I'm not too sure whether I'm happy that my own country is involved in this b00lsh1t too. Or was at least, and under heavy pressure to continue that involvement.

BTW I heard there were some issues regarding the evidence of the torpedoed SK corvette, seems that it had been messed around with. Anyone has more info regarding that?

[Sivodsi]

BTW I heard there were some issues regarding the evidence of the torpedoed SK corvette, seems that it had been messed around with. Anyone has more info regarding that?

I'm not sure if these were the doubts about the investigation that you were alluding to, but here is a link to a site that claims the investigation was a stitchup job by the US/ROK govt to

be used to instigate military action against the people of North Korea.

I think this claim is BS because ROK and the US did nothing physical in retaliation, and were not in a position to do anything in retaliation. Also there have been other reports of Nth Koreans quietly taking credit for the sinking.

Moreover, it is simply not in the US/ROK interests to instigate a war in which even a quick victory would lead to masses of deaths and billions of damage to the ROK. The US is stretched thin as it is and this is at the wrong time for them.

It is the sort of action that NK carries out, it fits a pattern of their behavior, and this latest incident only provides more circumstantial evidence that the Cheonan was a NK operation.

[ChrisND]

Sorry for late reply, missed this thread somehow.

They have 1.3 bn angry Chinese to distract from local concerns they may have about corrupt governance and their elites ripping them off.

At the same time Chinese have deep national pride at their growing status in the world, and even feel that it is their right to be world leaders, as they have been for several millennia in world history. I have had enough dealings with Chinese and experiences in China to know that they don't have a sense of humor over such matters.

It doesn't take much to get a few thousand Chinese throwing stones at the US embassy or rioting against Japanese businesses. You only have to look at how prickly they are over territorial and other matters that affect their 'national interest'. For example, the recent confrontation over the disputed Senkaku islands with Japan, and their reaction to the recent noble prize by Liu Xiaobo. They are even protesting US and SK naval maneuvers in the Yellow sea, which they regard as rightfully theirs.

The Chinese are a rising new power, and overly sensitive and defensive about their position. You don't have to look far into history to see parallels to a time when there was another brash new power on the scene, say just as far back as a newly reunited Germany under Wilhelm II, looking for 'their place in the sun'.

Of course its not the same situation, but its enough to make me nervous about the destabilizing effects of a rising national power.

I'm sorry, but the idea of China being willing to openly fight the US, SK, Japan, and the rest of the UN over North Korea is silly. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain, and they aren't stupid. The US and China are major trade partners. A shooting war with America would put their economy into the dumpster overnight. Just what does North Korea give them besides a headache and potential radioactive winds after they blow themselves up? I don't believe the idea of a buffer state has merit anymore, except maybe among the very conservative in China's leadership. I've gathered from their diplomatic actions in the last ten years, from relatives of mine who come from China, to friends who live there, and especially from the new Wikileaks information, that they don't want a fight and wouldn't get involved. And I'll bet they have quietly told North Korea just that.

If you think I'm off base, go read the news headlines for today.

[Sivodsi]

I don't believe the idea of a buffer state has merit anymore, except maybe among the very conservative in China's leadership. I've gathered from their diplomatic actions in the last ten years, from relatives of mine who come from China, to friends who live there, and especially from the new Wikileaks information, that they don't want a fight and wouldn't get involved. And I'll bet they have quietly told North Korea just that.

If you think I'm off base, go read the news headlines for today.

BBC

Officials reportedly told South Korean counterparts that Beijing placed little value on the North as a buffer state.

The peninsula should be reunified under Seoul's control, they suggested

Wow, almost prescient!

I totally agree that the Chinese elites don't want to see their profitable enterprises being diminished by major conflict. Nonetheless, the Chinese elites don't want to be seen backing down by their own people and losing their legitimacy as the ruling class. This might motivate a more confrontational stance.

Whatever, its a nice idea for a CM module.

missed this thread somehow.

Not surprising. Way to hijack a thread!

[Michael Emrys]

Nonetheless, the Chinese elites don't want to be seen backing down by their own people and losing their legitimacy as the ruling class.

So, the challenge for the West and SK is to find a way for China to give us what we want without looking bad. Time for creative thinking.

Michael

[Sivodsi]

So, the challenge for the West and SK is to find a way for China to give us what we want without looking bad. Time for creative thinking.

Michael

Ha! Indeed, what do you give a 5000 year old civilization that has everything?

This CNN article summarizes the traditional view, that is contradictory to the position the Chinese diplomats offered in wikileaks (that they no longer believe in Nth Korea as a buffer state, and would be happy to see Sth Korea ruin their economy rebuilding + a crap load of social problems for a century to come... yeah right)

[Lethaface]

Sivodsi I think you'r quite right China won't give up NK so easy. If only because of the ~400.000 lives they have lost in order to secure it from the US / UN.

Regarding the article about the torpedoed corvette, I have read similar allegations from day one. Ofcourse there was a motive in the US base in Japan which was about to been closed. But those reports were only (wild) speculations, nothing more nothing less.

However, recently I read in depers.nl that: "there is no evidence for NK involvement, that SK troops and MoD have manipulated the incident and that the SK chief of staff was drunk at the moment the ship sank.". Unfortunately, no sources although it is a serious newspaper (for what that is worth, journalists being journalists). I informed a friend of mine, with some diplomatic connections, of the existence of the article and he said it wasn't the first thing he heard about it (apart from the always existing 'conspiracy theories').

Anyway, I don't think US or NK are out for war with NK. However they should rightfully be worried about NK's aggressiveness and the US Base in Japan is of strategic importance in case NK goes berserk and for geopolitical reasons. The current impopular SK government could use some support for its anti-NK stance, after years of improving relations between SK & NK.

Then, at the time of the sinking there were of course naval excercises in the area. This is obviously not evidence of any sort, but I find it very intriguing that for the last 10 years in any incident there were always military exercises in the bloody same area.

Anyway, with all those strategic and political motives involved I am always more suspicious of strange events. Until I read this article I thought it was solved and NK was to blame. However, this whole issue has been covered up so it seems and the results of the international investigation were never publicised. China said that it would condemn NK if the supporting evidence was clear, but I have never heard anything about it since.

Why this silence? Dozens of SK troops were killed and if they can reasonably prove it was NK, I bet they wouldn't be so silent.

[Sivodsi]

Well, the leader of Sth Korea was very unpopular, but Lee Myung-bak has turned things around somewhat, and there is nowhere near the level of discontent with his regime as in 2008, when there were massive street demonstrations every night of the week. He was doing well enough after the G20 with polls putting his approval rating at 60%, while after the bombardment it plummeted by 15%.

Given the lackluster response to both the Cheonan sinking and the bombardment, you have to say that he didn't time his 'incidents' very well. In fact, if he did instigate them you would have to say that he totally screwed up. If it was the live firing exercise that triggered the bombardment, why didn't he wait another couple of days until the US fleet arrived (since the fleet exercises had been planned 'for months')? That was stupid!

You would think that if he wanted to provoke the NKs he would have created a pretext for the ROK forces to be on full alert. But the opposite happened, and many Sth Koreans feel humiliated by the tepid response.

You would have to conclude that both incidents made his regime look worse rather than better.

Compare that to the situation in Pyongyang, where a power struggle is going on, and there is a pattern of provocative acts, you know, small matters like letting off nuclear bombs and firing ICBMs over Japan, and if you go further back, political assassinations, axe murders, commando raids, airline bombings, tunnels under the DMZ, kidnappings of innocent civilians to act as language teachers (!!!) ... and lots lots more . The North Korean regime is an evil, corrupt government.

Really, the conspiracy theory just doesn't make sense when you look at the bigger picture.

All the circumstantial evidence points to Pyongyang.

[Lethaface]

Sound reasoning there, cheers. NK indeed has a lot of motifs for aggressive behavior.

Just to be sure, NK is a evil, corrupt 'government' too in my eyes. However, in my eyes the USA is a less-evil and less-corrupt Empire

One thing which has amazed me since my 12th is that the the majority of the world buys the JFK 'magic bullet' thing. I certainly don't buy that story. It could be possible in theory, but other theory's are also very possible and imo far more plausible . Not to start a discussion about that here, but I guess it is one of the reasons I'm a bit more skeptical regarding publicly known 'facts'. The world isn't as easy as most of our media try to tell us, unfortunately.

[Michael Emrys]

Are you suggesting that JFK was shot by Space Aliens who were hoping to stop the landing on the Moon because they were afraid that we might discover their secret base there? I must run and put this up on my blog before the CIA "disappears" us all and the truth dies with us!

Michael

[Lethaface]

Something like that indeed, any story is better then the comeback traitor who turned into an elite sniper