Cerebrus Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Alright I'm really concerned about all the talk about a possible invasion of Iran during the next presidential term and was wondering what your thoughts on it all were. I know there's a lot of ex-military people on here and people who might be able to know a bit more about this kind of thing. Basically, I'm 20 years old and I'm really worried a draft will get reinstated if this starts. I have no problem serving my country but honestly right now I'm incredibly excited about life and a lot of amazing stuff going on for me right now. I've got some incredible financial opportunities that I think are going very well, I'm well on my way to being qualified to wingsuit basejump ( ), a life dream of mine, and I'm just having a blast chilling with my friends and meeting a LOT of girls (just moved to a big city). Realistically, when do you think we would invade Iran? (I realize this takes some guessing that's totally cool I just want some educated answers) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJK Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 My thoughts on what would need to happen before we charged into Iran: 1) Israel discovers that Iran has proceeded with the development of WMD's that are pointed/directed at Israel and aren't just making nukes to power the oil rich country 2) Israel conducts strategic air strikes to remove said weapons/weapon manufacturing plant(s) 3) Iran retaliates and invades Israel 4) The US (and coalition?) intervene and then all hell (continues to) break out in the Mid-East. A very good daily newsletter that you can sign up for is at http://www.stratfor.com/ Some very good non-partisan insight in there on current world events. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stalins Organ Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Not in your service lifetime. Where would you ge the troops from? The US is scratching to send 3 brigades to Afghanistan - not until the end of 2009 according to a report yesterday. and apparently the US is not planning to leave Iraq any time soon. And even if it did do you think that 130,000 troops from there would be enough to invade Iran? Because you would have NO allies at all...well maybe some Iranian emigres, Kurds and Iraqi's ..... possibly some Israeli support (air, special forces msot likely) but I don't see any other country wanting a bar of it....unless Iran makes it easy and does actually nuke Israel of course.....in which case all bets are off and Persia becomes a glass and slag wasteland..... GJK how is Iran going to invade Israel? Though US occupied Iraq and then Syria or jordan? That's not going to happen - but an Iranian retaliatory missile strike would be on the cards. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_the_wino Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 I don't think we, the US, could pull off a full scale invasion of Iran even if we didn't have Iraq and Afghanistan going on. The Iranians showed a tenacity and backbone in the Iran/ Iraq war that few thought possible. We actually have more in common with the Iranians (Persians) than Iraqis (Arabs). When things settle down, we will have a better chance at a non-military solution than a military one 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeatEtr Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Relax, kick back and keep doing what 20 year old kids should be doing, partying and getting laid. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_the_wino Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Yeah boobies!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Affentitten Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 My thoughts on what would need to happen before we charged into Iran: 1) Israel discovers that Iran has proceeded with the development of WMD's that are pointed/directed at Israel and aren't just making nukes to power the oil rich country 2) Israel conducts strategic air strikes to remove said weapons/weapon manufacturing plant(s) The ones that are deep, deep underground and specifically designed to thwart Israeli airstrikes? At least conventional ones. 3) Iran retaliates and invades Israel Err, via what route? The Iranian armed forces are OK for making a bloody defence of the homeland, but they're not up to 'projecting' power halfway across the Middle East 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJK Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Yes, sorry - meant invades Israeli air-space via either airstrike or more likely (obviously), long-range tactical missles. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Affentitten Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Even so, I doubt the handful of Migs and Sukhoi 24s that Iran has in flying condition are up to a long-range penetration past the Americans in Iraq and the Israelis. Not without losing them all either there or on the way back. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJK Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Yes, exactly - and that raises the point....if the US makes significant withdrawals from Iraq, how does that affect the tensions between Israel and Iran? Thus, is the US stuck there no matter what the outcome of Iraq is; and hence the proposal to make a complete withdrawal in 18 months* is not going to happen? *Registered trademark slogan of some in the democratic party 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volfrahm Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 No nation under the current devolution type governments could pull off invading and occupying Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan and still maintain a normal standard of living for its people. Besides, the physical and physiological problems would automatically disqualify probably 3/4 of draftable 18-25 year-olds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stalins Organ Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 GJK wrote: if the US makes significant withdrawals from Iraq, how does that affect the tensions between Israel and Iran? Thus, is the US stuck there no matter what the outcome of Iraq is Uh...no....talk about begging the question....why does a "change in the relationship" mean the US is "stuck there"? Why can't the change in relationship be one that means the US leaves Iraq with no great problems? In fact I'd suggest that the US leaving Iraq might improve the relationship between the 2 countries!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJK Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 You could very well be right; I suppose that's the gamble. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_the_wino Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Why can't the change in relationship be one that means the US leaves Iraq with no great problems? In fact I'd suggest that the US leaving Iraq might improve the relationship between the 2 countries!! I agree. With the US gone, when Iraq is stable, Ahmadinejad will only have Isreal to rail against. And that rhetoric only plays with the fanatical fruit cakes. The general trend in Iran over the last ten years has been towards a more Westernized society and a reduction of US military presence would make the claims of 'infidel invaders at the gate' seem moot and laughable to all but the crazies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sekra Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 All you yankees got to fear is that if your country keeps doing idiotic things like invading Iraq you're the one that'll be invaded.. And trust me, you don't want any überfinns knocking at your doorstep 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_the_wino Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Your lack of things 'Merican is shocking, were you perhaps sent to the US for your education? What would a Finn do in 'Merica? There are no reindeer, scant ice storms and piss poor vodka. No, what you guys want is Canada. It's a bit to the north and you can get 2 out of 3 there.....bring your own Vodka. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sekra Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 We wanna steal your lakes before Canada gets em all.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_the_wino Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Too late, we are sending that water to LA, Las Vegas and Dallas. We have some nuclear waste if you are looking for scraps. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sekra Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Well if the price is right... We allready have a deal with the russians to dispose their waste and they pay us good. then at night we dump that into sweden while they sleep. you really think those swedish blondes are natural?!?! you can thank us of those mutations 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stalins Organ Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Your lack of things 'Merican is shocking, were you perhaps sent to the US for your education? . Sadly, and seriously, school massacres notwithstanding...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDork Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Yeah boobies!! A truer statement has never been said. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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