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Hello everybody. I've just come aboard and wanted to send out a greeting. I have been playing CMBO for about two weeks and had the demo for about three months before that.

I was wondering if anybody here could help me out a little. Such as what scenarios are really useful for "training" purposes for both infantry and armor. Plus, anything about where to find the best PBEM games that would allow a match to be played with about 5 turns or so a week.

Plus, i suppose any advice on learning the tactics would help some too. Granted, i've developed my own tactics, but I'm not 100% sure if the actual armies used any of the ones i employ.

Thanks!

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Ahem, {stands up from the kneeled circle hunched around scattered marbles} Well howdy there. What took ya so long? Here the rest of us have been fighting the war over gameyness and lifeyness now for two years and you come straggling in. Ah, replacements aye. Okay son, first thing ta learn is, if it works agin ya, its gamey. If it works for ya, its lifey. Juss keep yer head down and don't smoke at night. You'll be okay. :D

Actually {adopting reverent stance}, the best way to answer your request is to advise you to read through this forum. Make good use of the search engine and read a lot. I doubt there is any subject dealing with equipment, tactics, uniforms, color of paint, thickness of armor, percentage of chance of a lighting bolt out of the blue knocking out a Tiger, you name it, that this forum has not discussed in fingernails-on-blackboard painstaking detail. Someone recently said this forum may well represent the largest repository of WWII information anywhere on the net. And that is probably true.

As for scenarios, try a couple of these sites for downloads you can try out.

Belgian Combat Mission Scenario Page

Der Kessel Scenario Design Group For Combat Mission

Chema_Cagi's Page

Welcome, and keep coming back. ;)

Oh, almost forgot. By all means, start here:

FAQ=How to take a screenshot and other goodness

[ February 20, 2002, 06:22 PM: Message edited by: Bruno Weiss ]

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Bruno said in passing - "percentage of chance of a lighting bolt out of the blue knocking out a Tiger"

This was too beautiful a bit of hyperbole not to take it literally and go find out the answer. So, proving once again, as though proof were necessary in the matter, that I have way too much time on my hands, I decided to answer the question - what was the approximate probability of at least one Tiger tank being struck by lightning?

lol.

To simplify, I decided to only consider the Tiger I. I have also ignored "near misses" and the attractive effect of a big hunk of metal on open steppe. Instead I just go by area, pretending the location of lightning strikes is completely random.

Next I estimated the number of Tigers in action over the course of the war, very roughly. I decided on around 400 in 1943, and 650 in 1944. The total number produced was higher than that. But some were undoubtedly destroyed before they lived a year, so this estimate is probably on the high side. I ignore the small numbers out before the end of 1942 or surviving into 1945, partially compensating.

The surface area (from above) of a Tiger I, I approximate as just its length (not counting the gun) times the width. It is a pretty square vehicle so that is quite close. I then translate this into units of square miles (lol) and multiply by the number of Tigers in the field to get to total surface area (from above) of the Tigers in service in 1943 and 1944.

Then I needed to know the number of lightning strikes. I again pretend this is the same just about anywhere, not correcting for terrain or weather variations. I happened to have at my fingertips the frequency of lightning strikes in the continental US (don't ask - an old calculation lol), and its surface area. So I just transfer that over.

For a sample size, I imagine a front 3000 miles long and 50 miles deep, thus 150,000 square miles, in which Tigers might be located. It doesn't matter all that much what area is used, because more area makes each hit harder, but also gives more lightning strikes.

But rather than just multiplying, I do the likelihood calculation the right way after that. That is, so and so many square miles, means this many lightning strikes per year, run as independent trials, each with a tiny chance of hitting the tiny portion of the surface on which there just happen to be Tiger Is.

For those following along at home, this winds up being on the order of a few million chances at a phenom on the order of a few chances in a hundred million, for each of the two years. The chance of at least one in either year is of course one minus the product of the chance of all missing in each year. I let Mathematica do the numbers for me.

I get a 9.3% expected chance that at least one Tiger I was struck by lightning lol.

Anyone crazy enough to care can inspect my work on the intermediate steps -

surface area of one Tiger I in feet - about 254

in square miles - 9x10-6

lightning strikes in CONUS per year - 32 million

surface area fo CONUS - 3.12 million square miles

average lightning strikes per square mile per year - 10.255

tries per year in 150,000 square miles - 1.54x10+6

Total Tiger surface area in 1943 - about 3.6x10-3 square miles

hit chance in 1943, per strike, in 150,000 square miles - 2.4x10-8

that chance in 1.54x10+6 independent trials - 3.66% chance of hitting one

Total Tiger surface area in 1944 - about 5.9x10-3 square miles

hit chance in 1944, per strike - 3.9x10-8

that chance in 1.54x10+6 independent trials - 5.88% chance of hitting one

chance of hitting one in either 43 or 44 - 9.3%

As for whether the lightning bolt will KO the Tiger when it hits it, that part of the calculation I leave to Rexford, lol. Armor penetration and behind armor effect is his speciality, I just do the grand tactical and production aspects lol. My conclusion is that other weapons will have to be relied on to suppliment avenging Zeus.

Now, if anyone wants an insurance policy, or to do a cost-benefit analysis on lightning rods...

[ February 21, 2002, 01:06 AM: Message edited by: JasonC ]

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Originally posted by JasonC:

Bruno said in passing - "percentage of chance of a lighting bolt out of the blue knocking out a Tiger"

This was too beautiful a bit of hyperbole not to take it literally and go find out the answer. So, proving once again, as though proof were necessary in the matter, that I have way too much time on my hands, I decided to answer the question - what was the approximate probability of at least one Tiger tank being struck by lightning?

lol.

To simplify, I decided to only consider the Tiger I. I have also ignored "near misses" and the attractive effect of a big hunk of metal on open steppe. Instead I just go by area, pretending the location of lightning strikes is completely random.

Next I estimated the number of Tigers in action over the course of the war, very roughly. I decided on around 400 in 1943, and 650 in 1944. The total number produced was higher than that. But some were undoubtedly destroyed before they lived a year, so this estimate is probably on the high side. I ignore the small numbers out before the end of 1942 or surviving into 1945, partially compensating.

The surface area (from above) of a Tiger I, I approximate as just its length (not counting the gun) times the width. It is a pretty square vehicle so that is quite close. I then translate this into units of square miles (lol) and multiply by the number of Tigers in the field to get to total surface area (from above) of the Tigers in service in 1943 and 1944.

Then I needed to know the number of lightning strikes. I again pretend this is the same just about anywhere, not correcting for terrain or weather variations. I happened to have at my fingertips the frequency of lightning strikes in the continental US (don't ask - an old calculation lol), and its surface area. So I just transfer that over.

For a sample size, I imagine a front 3000 miles long and 50 miles deep, thus 150,000 square miles, in which Tigers might be located. It doesn't matter all that much what area is used, because more area makes each hit harder, but also gives more lightning strikes.

But rather than just multiplying, I do the likelihood calculation the right way after that. That is, so and so many square miles, means this many lightning strikes per year, run as independent trials, each with a tiny chance of hitting the tiny portion of the surface on which there just happen to be Tiger Is.

For those following along at home, this winds up being on the order of a few million chances at a phenom on the order of a few chances in a hundred million, for each of the two years. The chance of at least one in either year is of course one minus the product of the chance of all missing in each year. I let Mathematica do the numbers for me.

I get a 9.3% expected chance that at least one Tiger I was struck by lightning lol.

Anyone crazy enough to care can inspect my work on the intermediate steps -

surface area of one Tiger I in feet - about 254

in square miles - 9x10-6

lightning strikes in CONUS per year - 32 million

surface area fo CONUS - 3.12 million square miles

average lightning strikes per square mile per year - 10.255

tries per year in 150,000 square miles - 1.54x10+6

Total Tiger surface area in 1943 - about 3.6^10-3 square miles

hit chance in 1943, per strike, in 150,000 square miles - 2.4x10-8

that chance in 1.54x10+6 independent trials - 3.66% chance of hitting one

Total Tiger surface area in 1944 - about 5.9^10-3 square miles

hit chance in 1944, per strike - 3.9x10-8

that chance in 1.54x10+6 independent trials - 5.88% chance of hitting one

chance of hitting one in either 43 or 44 - 9.3%

As for whether the lightning bolt will KO the Tiger when it hits it, that part of the calculation I leave to Rexford, lol. Armor penetration and behind armor effect is his speciality, I just do the grand tactical and production aspects lol. My conclusion is that other weapons will have to be relied on to suppliment avenging Zeus.

Now, if anyone wants an insurance policy, or to do a cost-benefit analysis on lightning rods...

One problem Jason......lightning is completly unpredictable, you can have an average but lightning does not follow rules all the time.

Your assuming that the bolt of lightning will follow the path of least resisitance, (to get to the ground to cancel out)but this is not always the case. Some may be shocked by this, but a bolt lightning, or even electricity in general for that matter does not always follow Ohms Law.

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Now Jason took the correct approach, no sense in allowing a newbie to slip into a false sense of security. smile.gif

I remember this topic as a discussion many many months ago. Someone even popped up with a quote from Lard knows where of a Tiger crew talking about lightning strikes and what action they would take in a thunder storm or some such. I believe the discussion coursed its way through radio antennas and nearby trees acting as attractors to the strikes. Then, there was a discussion as to what electrical components within the tank might be damaged and ofcourse the crew. Wish I could find that. My point being ofcourse, that there ain't hardly a topic out there that this forum hasn't put through the oratorical bass-o-matic at one point or another. Only problem is, while we passionately debate the finite details of differentials in shades of paint and thickness of pencil leads, we then tend to promptly forget what the hell it was we said. :D

[ February 21, 2002, 08:20 AM: Message edited by: Bruno Weiss ]

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Originally posted by Squadldr76:

Hello everybody. I've just come aboard and wanted to send out a greeting. I have been playing CMBO for about two weeks and had the demo for about three months before that.

I was wondering if anybody here could help me out a little. Such as what scenarios are really useful for "training" purposes for both infantry and armor. Plus, anything about where to find the best PBEM games that would allow a match to be played with about 5 turns or so a week.

Plus, i suppose any advice on learning the tactics would help some too. Granted, i've developed my own tactics, but I'm not 100% sure if the actual armies used any of the ones i employ.

Thanks!

Hey Squadldr76, welcome to the CM forum. If you look in the tips and tricks subforum, there is a thread called "Anthology of useful posts". It's quite thorough and answers many questions regarding tactics for different situations.
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There is a fantastic scenario out there titled 'Crodaburg.' Someone may be able to dig it up for you. - Hi Hiram!

As for lightening, CM does not model it correctly. If they did, it would have hit Sakai by now.

Also, CM does not have bagpipes properly modeled, but that is a separate issue.

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I have been reading posts on this board since right after CMBO was released to the public and I must say that this series on lightning has been one of the STRANGEST I've ever read. On the other hand it was very well reasoned and explained in terms that even a college drop out such as myself can understand,unlike some of the armor penetration and how many hamsters it takes to achieve a catastrophic kill threads I have perused in my time. Anyway welcome aboard new guy! I hope this bizarre topic doesn't scare you away as these guys are a smart as they seem (scary ain't it?) and can provide you with more than you ever wanted to know about the Second World War.

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Originally posted by Croda:

Also, CM does not have bagpipes properly modeled, but that is a separate issue.

Well, Croda if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. Bring a microphone over to my place this weekend, and I will stir your soul with a few hornpipes, jigs, reels and slow airs. Flowers of the Forest anyone?

I suppose you would prefer Scotland the Brave...philistine....

[ February 21, 2002, 12:47 PM: Message edited by: Michael Dorosh ]

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Originally posted by Michael Dorosh:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Croda:

Also, CM does not have bagpipes properly modeled, but that is a separate issue.

Well, Croda if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. Bring a microphone over to my place this weekend, and I will stir your soul with a few hornpipes, jigs, reels and slow airs. Flowers of the Forest anyone?

I suppose you would prefer Scotland the Brave...philistine....</font>

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don't worry, i am in fact still here and have realized that i'm intimidated for NOT being the strangest one in the room for a change. the problem is though that i'm usually only allowed a few hours on the computer a night. *sigh* real life can be a drag sometimes.

but i do appreciate the warm welcome and i'm sure i'll find out everything i do need to know about ww2 here. to share a little about who i am, i've been endeavoring to become a writer and have always found the setting of the 40's to be a great place to explore dramatically. ONE of these days, i may even get a chance to write a few stories or even a book. and i've found CMBO to be a great way to model certain situations that i think of.

i do have one very important question though...does everybody here hate hamsters? smile.gif

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