Views on Ukraine situation from around the world

[Erwin]

Some of you may know that way back when I used to piggy back on foreign cultural exchange programs.  Had some similar travel over the past 8 months (hence my absence from the forums) and was able to gauge how people abroad feel about the current Ukraine situation - plus my own (very) personal conclusions.  Visited places like Scandinavia, Baltics, N. Africa, Central Asia, with an unscheduled quick drive through the Russian Fed.  (Yes, one can easily/accidentally do that in places.)  Talked with regular people, not govt. spokesmen, and any comments/conclusions are mine alone and not that of any official or govt. entity.

Got back home just as the Israeli crisis erupted.  The situation in Israel makes my report somewhat obsolete, but the ME situation can be regarded as a “Ukraine added” phase of the increasingly hot global struggle for dominance between China and the US-led west.  Foreign travel makes one realize that we in the west are fed a very one-sided view of events from our media, so I hope the following very brief summary is interesting.

1)      Outside of the US-led west, Russia (and China) have substantial support. 

2)      Whatever Russia's initial hopes for an easy conquest of Ukraine, the current stalemate situation serves China's (and Russia's) aims. 

3)      For Ukraine to "win", Russia has to be removed from all Ukraine's territory.  If Russia controls any of Ukraine's territory, Russia "wins". 

4)      The west has no plans (or way) to remove Russia from Ukraine (barring unforeseen massive change in circumstances). 

5)      The west’s plan seems to be simply to drain Russian resources and work out novel ways of waging war with new technologies.  However, that now appears also to be China and Russia's plan… to distract and drain resources from the west, and to train. 

6)      The proxy war could go on indefinitely with Ukraine supported by the west and Russia supported by China until one side runs out of manpower. 

7)      In Europe, there is rapidly decreasing support for sending funds and resources to Ukraine (or anywhere) because of the fast-worsening economic situation for ordinary people in all European countries.  Was even lectured in detail by an Albanian about how the Ukraine war was the fault of the US.

8 )     In N. Africa and Asia, there is significant support for Russia and Putin.  Swedish folks are not particularly supportive of US goals. 

9)      The nations bordering the Russian Federation were most concerned about Russian expansionism as one might expect.

From additional reading it appears that Muslim nations are responding favorably to Chinese entreaties despite its treatment of the Uyghurs.  Looking at the big grand strategic picture China is doing everything it can to create an alternative world reserve currency to rival and diminish the dollar and US influence re its goal of world domination.  The situation in Ukraine and the new crisis in the Middle East serves its purposes as nations hostile to the US enter the Chinese sphere of influence. 

[Erwin]

Interesting article on the subject from WSJ on Thursday November 16 2023:

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/its-time-to-end-magical-thinking-about-russias-defeat-f6d0b8de?mod=world_lead_pos1

 

[Erwin]

It just occurred to me that one may need a WSJ sub to read the sobering article.  Here is an excerpt, but it is well worth reading the much longer article if one can access it.  Send me PM if you want the whole article and I can send it to you:

"It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.

By Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss

Nov. 16, 2023 10:00 am ET

As Russian President Vladimir Putin looks toward the second anniversary of his all-out assault on Ukraine, his self-confidence is hard to miss. A much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved the breakthrough that would give Kyiv a strong hand to negotiate. Tumult in the Middle East dominates the headlines, and bipartisan support for Ukraine in the U.S. has been upended...

Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June. Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.

...Soviet legacy factories are outperforming Western factories when it comes to much-needed items like artillery shells.

The technocrats responsible for running the Russian economy have proven themselves to be resilient, adaptable, and resourceful. Elevated oil prices, driven in part by close cooperation with Saudi Arabia, are refilling state coffers...

Putin can also look at his foreign-policy record with satisfaction. His investments in key relationships have paid off. China and India have provided an important backstop for the Russian economy by ramping up imports of Russian oil and other commodities. Instead of fretting about lost markets in Western Europe or Beijing’s reluctance to flout U.S. and EU sanctions, Putin has decided that it’s more advantageous in the short term simply to become China’s junior partner in the economic realm. Goods from China account for nearly 50% of Russian imports, and Russia’s top energy companies are now hooked on selling to China.

Even neighboring countries that have every reason to fear Putin’s aggressive tactics, such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, have made fat profits by serving as enablers of sanctions circumvention and as transshipment points for the goods that Russia used to import directly."

 

 

 

 

[Erwin]

Interesting WSJ short  excerpt on "How to Avoid Defeat in Ukraine"

 

by 

Walter Russell Mead

. 27, 2023 1:24 pm ET

The German tabloid “Bild” said the quiet part out loud. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the well-sourced newspaper reported, plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win.

This creates a dilemma for those who know that Ukraine’s fate matters deeply to the U.S., but who can also see that Team Biden is more interested in avoiding confrontation with Russia than in defeating it. To oppose aid to Ukraine is to ensure a Russian victory, but funding Mr. Biden’s approach will do little to prevent one—and will further erode public support for America’s global engagement.

Having failed to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine in the first place, the Biden administration badly overestimated the effect of Western sanctions on Russia. Once it was clear that sanctions wouldn’t force Russia to end the war, and after several failed efforts to tempt Russia with “off ramps,” Team Biden cooked up Plan Stalemate. The West would dribble out enough aid to help Ukraine survive, but not enough to help it win. Ultimately, the Ukrainians would lose hope of victory and offer Mr. Putin a compromise peace. The White House would spin this as a glorious triumph for democracy and the rule of law.

Some will criticize this as a cynical strategy, but the real problem is that it is naive. Mr. Biden seems to be clinging to the idea that Mr. Putin can be appeased—parked, if you prefer—by reasonable concessions. And so, the White House thinks, if Ukraine offers reasonable terms, Russia will gladly accept them.

But what if, when Mr. Putin senses weakness, he doubles down? What if a few thousand square miles of Ukrainian territory matter less to him than inflicting a humiliating defeat on the Biden administration and demonstrating the weakness of the West?

Mr. Putin has recovered from his early stumbles in Ukraine. Russia has more than doubled its forces there since the war began. Despite early setbacks, Russia has developed capabilities and tactics that have improved its troops’ effectiveness on the battlefield. The unconventional (if morally repugnant) decision to send released prisoners to fight in such places as Bakhmut and Avdiivka means that Russia was able to degrade some of Ukraine’s best combat units while preserving its own best units for battle elsewhere.

Russia has increased weapons production and is now manufacturing ammunition an estimated seven times faster than the West. It has mitigated the effect of Western sanctions. It is strengthening military and strategic links with Iran, and thanks to Iranian protégé Hamas, Western attention has shifted from Ukraine toward the Middle East.

Article continues:  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-avoid-defeat-in-ukraine-russia-u-s-foreign-policy-military-aid-weapons-war-d86db15f?mod=WTRN_pos7&cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_171&cx_artPos=6

[Lethaface]

Fwiw in Malaysia the view you sketch is not accurate (posting from now). The Ukraine war gets less attention/focus here, it's far away and limited impact. However the agressor is clear.

China isn't seen as favourable as you sketch it to be, although US foreign policy isn't always either. They don't see the need to get mixed up in the conflict, mainly looking after own interests.

The Palestine/Israel conflict gets more attention, overwhelming majority support a free Palestine state and see the lack of that as the main reason for the conflict there. And that Israël can get away with almost anything, where other countries wouldn't.

[Bulletpoint]

At first, we were surprised that Putin would actually go ahead and invade.

Then we were surprised that Ukraine didn't simply collapse.

Then we were surprised that the Russian Army was beaten badly and had to let go of huge areas.

Then we were surprised that the Ukrainian summer offensive completely failed, despite all the Western weapons.

An then now we are very surprised that the Russians are able to not just prevent collapse, but even mount a winter offensive and are taking ground.

 

I would be surprised if this is the last surprise of this war.

[Erwin]

Reality finally settling in - very predictable:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-have-to-accept-a-cease-fire-putin-orban-congress-aid-89f9932a?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos3

Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire 

The word “crisis” is overused, but it accurately describes what Ukraine faces as 2024 begins.

According to a recent report in the Washington Post, troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. A press officer for a Ukrainian battalion recently said that ammunition shortages had forced his unit to reduce its rate of firing by 90% since the summer. “We lack everything,” a member of another unit said. Although his comrades are highly motivated, he added, “You can’t win a war only on motivation.” He doubted they could hold their position much longer.

This is an all-hands-on-deck emergency. If negotiators can’t reach a deal by the time the Senate reconvenes, President Biden must get directly involved. 

Even if aid for Ukraine is renewed, it is essential to consider a realistic ending for the war. Ukraine’s insistence on regaining all the territory Russia has seized since 2014 is understandable and legally impeccable, but events over the past year have made it clear that this goal can’t be achieved anytime soon. Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive failed as Russia’s reinforced defenses held. Russia’s economy has proved more resilient than expected, and it is ramping up military production much faster than Ukraine and its allies. The conflict has exposed the hollowing out of the West’s defense industrial base...

...But it is the only realistic path to a lasting peace in Europe.

Adv

[Erwin]

And in other related news re the "big picture" of how the Ukraine war is part of a larger strategy to replace the USD:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-brics-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-israel-china-russia-25b511d7?mod=opinion_feat1_editorials_pos2

Saudi state TV said the Kingdom has officially joined the BRICS bloc. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the group’s longtime members. They began as developing nations bent mainly on growth.

But in recent years, led by China and Russia, the BRICS have evolved into a diplomatic bloc bent on countering Western influence. The bloc would like to create an alternative system of global finance that is less dependent on the U.S. dollar for transactions and would be less vulnerable to Western sanctions.

[The_Capt]

On 1/3/2024 at 9:41 PM, Erwin said:

And in other related news re the "big picture" of how the Ukraine war is part of a larger strategy to replace the USD:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-brics-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-israel-china-russia-25b511d7?mod=opinion_feat1_editorials_pos2

Saudi state TV said the Kingdom has officially joined the BRICS bloc. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the group’s longtime members. They began as developing nations bent mainly on growth.

But in recent years, led by China and Russia, the BRICS have evolved into a diplomatic bloc bent on countering Western influence. The bloc would like to create an alternative system of global finance that is less dependent on the U.S. dollar for transactions and would be less vulnerable to Western sanctions.

Behind paywall.  The BRIC has been pushing to move away from the USD for years.  China is leaning hard into trying to get the Yaun as the global currency reserve since the ‘10s.  What I do not see is how the war in Ukraine links into this?  In fact insecurity tends to push investment in the USD because it is still considered safe.

[Erwin]

Per my first post made last November, I found that Russia and therefore China/BRIC has a lot more support around the work than we in the west are told about.  China is happy to let Russia bog the west down in a futile war in Ukraine as it enables them to portray the US/West as "colonial-like" powers which are on the decline while the BRIC nations are the "future".  It's what the BRIC nations want to hear.  One gets the impression that the BRIC nations resent the US and the west - maybe not in the same extreme way the Palestinians hate the Israelis - but on the spectrum. 

China is making big inroads into S. America, Africa, the ME...  Not sure about SE Asia as those nations are peeved by China's aggressive expansionism/military and appalling S. China Sea expropriation.  (Oddly, it seems that other Muslim nations give China a pass on its appalling treatment of the Uyghurs.  The Uyghurs are a more "European" ethnic entity more genetically similar to Turks etc. and maybe that is the reason.)  

It took 20-30 years for the USD to replace the GBP, and it's certain that is what China is working towards for its Yuan/Renmimbi.  Re the big picture, while Russia's aims may have changed due to Ukrainian resistance, unless Russia is removed from all of Ukraine, Russia "wins".  Does anyone seriously see that happening barring some massive unforeseen event:  eg:  We barter Russia leaving Ukraine vs giving up Taiwan?  Ukraine could be a big win for Russia/China and it's arguable that the new situation in the ME is part of the global power struggle.  imo we are already at war with China via proxies and non-attributable cyberwar.  

And also here with edited info:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-china-and-the-threat-to-the-north-pole-icebreaker-appropriations-arctic-74489e23

"Today, the Arctic Ocean is more navigable than ever, empowering allies and adversaries to take a new and more urgent interest in the region. As one of only eight Arctic states, the U.S., along with our North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, benefits from proximity to natural resources, including an estimated 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural-gas reserves, shipping routes, fishing waters and a chance at development. This interest also makes the High North a flashpoint in a new era of great-power competition. 

Mainland Russia is less than 60 miles from the west coast of Alaska. Russia’s regional dominance in the Arctic is amplified by its proportion of Arctic coastline, and it operates more than 50 icebreakers—nearly half of all icebreakers in the world. Moscow has increased collaboration with China in the region as part of its new unlimited relationship, even going so far as to establish a joint maritime agreement for travel along the Northern Sea Route to share intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance information."

In 2021 China proclaimed itself a “near-Arctic state,” despite having no sovereign Arctic territory. Alongside Russia, China has stepped up its activity in Arctic waters, including in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. In 2021 the U.S. Coast Guard reported that a formation of four Chinese warships had entered the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone off the Aleutian Islands. In July a Chinese and Russian flotilla sailed in the waters off the coast of Alaska in a show of power. 

 

Edited January 6 by Erwin

[Erwin]

ANALYSIS AND DATA FROM WSJ:

WSJ:  How the Russian and Ukrainian War Efforts Compare, in 10 Charts:

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/heres-how-the-russian-and-ukrainian-war-efforts-compare-in-10-charts-1cf9a74f?mod=world_lead_pos2

Text from WSJ:

Western financial help and ammunition supplies for Ukraine are running low, while public support is showing some cracks. Russia, with its larger population, has so far withstood the worst of Western sanctions and ramped up its war economy for a prolonged fight.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is now betting he can outlast the West’s support for Ukraine and make a decisive breakthrough if Russia’s economy can keep ticking over.

Russia’s military budget, at over $100 billion for 2024, is the highest it has been since Soviet times, growing by more than two-thirds from last year. Its manufacturing capacity has also overcome initial shortages to help Moscow’s war machine churn out weaponry for a lengthy campaign, often at the expense of civilian production.

Ukraine is also investing in domestic military production capabilities, but it is no match for a much larger Russian military-industrial complex running at full steam. Kyiv could fall further behind as Western support dries up.

Though U.S. estimates suggest Russia has suffered 315,000 killed or injured since the start of the war—nearly 90% of its prewar fighting force—its population was around 3½ times as large as Ukraine’s before the invasion, giving it a battlefield edge. Tens of thousands of inmates have been released from its prisons to serve the war effort, while some 300,000 reservists have also been mobilized.

Russia’s economy has ridden the wave of sanctions better than the West expected, thanks in large part to how it has redirected oil exports to China and India and evaded price caps through a shadow fleet of tankers. This lifeline has helped Russia switch to a war economy and find alternative sources for components it previously bought from the West.

In Russia, Putin continues to command broad support and has jailed critics and silenced antiwar voices. He is expected to win another six-year term in power in March’s presidential election.

[Simcoe]

Thanks for sharing these. Short of a miracle I don’t see how Ukraine can last past this summer. 
 

Russia makes gains daily and doesn’t look to be slowing down. Targets like Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar which used to be a pipe dream now seem to only be a matter of time. 
 

This is exacerbated by the US and EU dropping or slowing down their support. The US was paying for pensions and government salaries. How will Ukraine make up this budget shortfall? How long will soldiers fight without pay?

Finally, where are they going to get the soldiers to man the NATO equipment? Is Europe going to deport millions of Ukrainians back so they can drive tanks and dig trenches? Able bodied men are already being kidnapped and sent to Avdiivka.

I believe the US, EU and Ukraine need to come to the negotiating table now while they still have leverage. How much leverage I’m not too sure.

I’m concerned the US will keep this going until the bitter end to further Russia’s attrition at the expense of Ukraine’s destruction.

This is just my take as someone that looks at the information from both sides.

 

[Erwin]

I think that Ukraine can survive longer than next summer.  But, one has to consider that many millions of Ukrainians have fled their country... and (according to Google) so far about 10 million have not returned and seem happy to stay abroad.  If they don't want to fight for their own country that means that those who remain will be whittled down in an attritional war with Russia that suits Russia just fine since they have a much larger population.  

One would expect that Ukraine will have to start fielding older men and younger men.  The long term effects of a destroyed generation of men were seen in the UK (and France, Germany etc) after WW1.  

It will be interesting to see how pressure starts to be applied on Ukraine to consider a compromised negotiated settlement that gives the West the opportunity to declare "victory" (while Russia and China will declare the same natch). 

Seems that those who think that Ukraine will "win" are basing their hopes on Russia "falling apart".  This seems akin to Hitler hoping the Allies would fall apart after the death of Roosevelt.  From my experience and travels, Russia can endure much more pain and suffering than we in the west can imagine.  And from the WSJ articles it seems that Russia is actually doing ok with exports and relations with its many supporters in the ME, Africa, S. America and of course China.  The real threat is China's blatant attempt to overthrow the USD and replace it with the Renminbi by supporting the sort of chaos we see in Ukraine... and now other parts of the world - demonstrating the weakness of current administrations in the US and Europe.  

[Erwin]

Looks like the next foot is dropping as part of China's strategy of overloading the US/West with crises to demonstrate our "fecklessness" and "impotence" to protect our allies and interests:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-jong-un-drops-the-mask-north-korea-nuclear-threat-biden-administration-war-a7357bae

"North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un last week eviscerated any remaining pretense that his regime seeks peaceful reunification with South Korea. Now that Pyongyang has nearly developed the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile, Mr. Kim has decided to scrap almost 80 years of intra-Korean policy. 

In a Castro-length speech filled with rhetoric about America’s “policy of confrontation,” Mr. Kim announced his decision to strip the North’s “constitution” of all vestiges of peaceful reunification and to eliminate the government offices handling the issue. By effectively recognizing that there are two states on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim has ensured there is no turning back. If war breaks out, he said, the North plans on “completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming” South Korea and annexing it “as a part of the territory of our Republic... Counting on weak U.S. leaders who didn’t see South Korea as a strategic asset, and whom they could subject to nuclear blackmail, the Kims followed a version of Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” approach: concealing their growing nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and awaiting a docile regime in Washington. Today, the North sees its moment at hand in a weak Joe Biden...”

 

[Simcoe]

On 1/24/2024 at 5:53 PM, Erwin said:

I think that Ukraine can survive longer than next summer.  But, one has to consider that many millions of Ukrainians have fled their country... and (according to Google) so far about 10 million have not returned and seem happy to stay abroad.  If they don't want to fight for their own country that means that those who remain will be whittled down in an attritional war with Russia that suits Russia just fine since they have a much larger population.  

One would expect that Ukraine will have to start fielding older men and younger men.  The long term effects of a destroyed generation of men were seen in the UK (and France, Germany etc) after WW1.  

It will be interesting to see how pressure starts to be applied on Ukraine to consider a compromised negotiated settlement that gives the West the opportunity to declare "victory" (while Russia and China will declare the same natch). 

Seems that those who think that Ukraine will "win" are basing their hopes on Russia "falling apart".  This seems akin to Hitler hoping the Allies would fall apart after the death of Roosevelt.  From my experience and travels, Russia can endure much more pain and suffering than we in the west can imagine.  And from the WSJ articles it seems that Russia is actually doing ok with exports and relations with its many supporters in the ME, Africa, S. America and of course China.  The real threat is China's blatant attempt to overthrow the USD and replace it with the Renminbi by supporting the sort of chaos we see in Ukraine... and now other parts of the world - demonstrating the weakness of current administrations in the US and Europe.  

If we assume the US is done sending support and the EU sends small batches of equipment and supplies I don't see how Ukraine can make it past the end of the year. Either Ukraine runs out of men, equipment or the will to continue. All three are possible.

My prediction is the loss of one or both of Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka trigger negotiations if they haven't already started. 

How do you see Ukraine surviving past 2024?

As for China overthrowing the dollar. I just don't see why they would want to. Their economy is based on export, if they become the reserve currency the currency will grow stronger and make exports unprofitable. Also, who is going to trust the CCP as a reserve currency? They value their ability to manipulate their currency and their stock market according to the whims of the government. No one would want to hold the currency if the CCP could make it worthless after some unilateral decision.

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, Simcoe said:

As for China overthrowing the dollar. I just don't see why they would want to. Their economy is based on export, if they become the reserve currency the currency will grow stronger and make exports unprofitable. Also, who is going to trust the CCP as a reserve currency? They value their ability to manipulate their currency and their stock market according to the whims of the government. No one would want to hold the currency if the CCP could make it worthless after some unilateral decision.

Maybe they don't want to replace the dollar with the renmimbi, but instead to make for example the Euro the new reserve currency?

Even if they did, the European Union is still too weak and politically divided to ever become the kind of rival to China that the USA is.

Or in other words: Pluck the feathers off the eagle and give them to the chicken.

[Erwin]

9 hours ago, Simcoe said:

How do you see Ukraine surviving past 2024?

In the same way that the Russians were expected by most on these forums to collapse last year, and instead the Russians summoned up their historic defensive stubbornness and willingness to endure massive casualties/pain last seen in WW2 (a personality attribute that we in the west historically do not understand) and survived and according to many journalists now seem to be doing ok (with support from around the world from those who are either hostile towards the US/West or at least neutral).  My sense is that Ukraine also has massive reserves of stubbornness and if they are not forced by the west to negotiate, they will stick their heels in and fight - possibly to the detriment of their own future. 

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe they don't want to replace the dollar with the renmimbi, but instead to make for example the Euro the new reserve currency?

Maneuvering the yuan as an alternative or replacement reserve currency has been a significant effort by the People's Republic of China. The PRC has pursued this goal by conducting more international trade using the Chinese yuan, and negotiating deals to allow the purchase of Saudi Arabian oil in yuan.Jul 4, 2023

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/16/china-yuan-renminbi-us-dollar-currency-trade/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/21/china-yuan-us-dollar-sco-currency/

https://www.noemamag.com/china-wants-to-ditch-the-dollar/

However, no need to panic yet:

It's unlikely that the world will wake up one day with dollars no longer holding international appeal. Rather, in examples such as the British pound, there was a multi-decade process by which it went from the center of world economics to a second-tier currency.Sep 20, 2023

[Simcoe]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe they don't want to replace the dollar with the renmimbi, but instead to make for example the Euro the new reserve currency?

Even if they did, the European Union is still too weak and politically divided to ever become the kind of rival to China that the USA is.

Or in other words: Pluck the feathers off the eagle and give them to the chicken.

China and Russia are definitely pushing for a multi polar world where the USD is less prominent. As we've seen in the Ukraine war, any nation that goes against the US interests can be locked out of the global banking system. I'm sure finding ways to circumvent this is top priority.

[Simcoe]

5 hours ago, Erwin said:

In the same way that the Russians were expected by most on these forums to collapse last year, and instead the Russians summoned up their historic defensive stubbornness and willingness to endure massive casualties/pain last seen in WW2 (a personality attribute that we in the west historically do not understand) and survived and according to many journalists now seem to be doing ok (with support from around the world from those who are either hostile towards the US/West or at least neutral).  My sense is that Ukraine also has massive reserves of stubbornness and if they are not forced by the west to negotiate, they will stick their heels in and fight - possibly to the detriment of their own future. 

Maneuvering the yuan as an alternative or replacement reserve currency has been a significant effort by the People's Republic of China. The PRC has pursued this goal by conducting more international trade using the Chinese yuan, and negotiating deals to allow the purchase of Saudi Arabian oil in yuan.Jul 4, 2023

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/16/china-yuan-renminbi-us-dollar-currency-trade/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/21/china-yuan-us-dollar-sco-currency/

https://www.noemamag.com/china-wants-to-ditch-the-dollar/

However, no need to panic yet:

It's unlikely that the world will wake up one day with dollars no longer holding international appeal. Rather, in examples such as the British pound, there was a multi-decade process by which it went from the center of world economics to a second-tier currency.Sep 20, 2023

With Russia it made a bit more sense. They were already overmatching in tanks, artillery and airpower. Once they fixed their manpower issues they were able to mount a strong defense and immediately go on the offensive.

For Ukraine they are pulling people off the streets and they haven't been able to pass the new conscription measures. They may have the will but they are running out of people and equipment to man it.

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, Simcoe said:

They may have the will but they are running out of people and equipment to man it.

Good point.  But since we don't know what Ukraine's manpower reserves are, it's hard to judge if they can survive a year or three+ years.  Look at how Germany survived the last year or two of WW2 with boys and old men.  All rational thought was that Germany would sue for peace.  

Of course there is no equivalent cult of personality around Zelensky.  But, my prediction is that the West will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate due to the West's own domestic problems.  The only question is how the West will be able to spin the result to its own population (us) as a "victory".  

[Simcoe]

8 hours ago, Erwin said:

Good point.  But since we don't know what Ukraine's manpower reserves are, it's hard to judge if they can survive a year or three+ years.  Look at how Germany survived the last year or two of WW2 with boys and old men.  All rational thought was that Germany would sue for peace.  

Of course there is no equivalent cult of personality around Zelensky.  But, my prediction is that the West will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate due to the West's own domestic problems.  The only question is how the West will be able to spin the result to its own population (us) as a "victory".  

True. Do you think Biden is forcing Zelenzky to continue the fight until after the elections?

[Bulletpoint]

11 hours ago, Simcoe said:

China and Russia are definitely pushing for a multi polar world where the USD is less prominent. As we've seen in the Ukraine war, any nation that goes against the US interests can be locked out of the global banking system. I'm sure finding ways to circumvent this is top priority.

I know they are trying to take away the dollar as an instrument of US foreign policy - just musing about whether that would necessarily mean replacing it with China's own currency, or maybe a third-party currency (that they could somehow still control or influence).

[Erwin]

From WSJ today (edited):

"Western officials and Ukrainian soldiers are concerned that rising tensions between President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top general could hamper the country’s war effort against Russia...  

...Russian forces are back on the offensive after Ukraine’s military effort, involving thousands of troops trained and equipped by the West, withered in the face of well-prepared defenses.  Ukraine is also facing a crunch in military and financial support as internal political disputes in the U.S. and the European Union have stalled proposed aid.

...Signs of discord between the two leaders, long dismissed as rumors by aides, emerged after Zaluzhniy referred to the war as a stalemate in an interview with the Economist last fall, saying Ukraine needed a major upgrade to military capabilities if it hoped to expel Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. 

...differences have surfaced over how to fill Ukraine’s ranks to hold off the larger Russian army. Zaluzhniy has said he needs more resources, including hundreds of thousands more troops to replace dead, injured and exhausted fighters."

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/tensions-between-zelensky-top-general-spark-worry-in-the-west-and-on-the-frontline-09ec7ad0?mod=world_lead_story

 

 

[Erwin]

 

From WSJ:  https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-death-rumor-carlson-interview-5c58a974?mod=latest_headlines

"Over the past few months, a Russian political scientist named Valery Solovei has stoked a global frenzy with a sensational claim: that Vladmir Putin died last year and today is represented in public by a body double. The Kremlin’s elite, Solovei tells his half-million online followers, controls the double and has stuffed Putin’s body in a freezer. 

Then on Thursday, journalist Tucker Carlson aired a two-hour interview with Putin. Solovei shrugged it off as a sham. Carlson, he said, interviewed Putin’s doppelgänger, who will now be passed off as real to millions of viewers in the West. “Putin is dead, irreversibly dead, he will not rise again, he will stay in the freezer,” Solovei said in a broadcast earlier this week."

Well, that explains the weird TC interview...  Of course we are more technologically advanced and have a walking zombie as President...

[Erwin]

Good summary of the last ten years of Ukraine war:

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russia-war-10-year-anniversary-photos-06423029?mod=latest_headlines

KYIV, Ukraine—It’s one decade since police gunned down dozens of civilians on a central street here, the first large-scale bloodshed of Russia’s efforts to keep Ukraine in its grasp.

The protesters killed on Feb. 20, 2014, had been among hundreds of thousands who for months had been opposing the corrupt rule of then-President Viktor Yanukovych, a Russian protégé. He soon fled to Russia and a pro-Western government took over, prompting Russia to send troops to seize Crimea.

In the years that followed, Russia used a variety of methods to try to take control of Ukraine, from a covert invasion of its neighbor’s east to years of political and economic pressure and chicanery. When they failed, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale military invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.

That didn’t work either. Ukraine repelled Russian forces from Kyiv and regained about half of the territory that Russia initially seized. However, Moscow still holds nearly 20% of Ukraine’s land.

Here’s a look back at a decade of Ukrainian resistance against Russia—years marked by death and destruction, but also resilience and hope.

2014-15: The first Russian invasion

 

It was late 2013 when tens of thousands of Ukrainians began rallying and camping out on Kyiv’s main square to protest government corruption and Yanukovych’s pivot to Russia. The protests were peaceful at first but turned violent when police tried to disperse them. On Feb. 20, two days after hours of deadly pitched battles between police and protesters had ended in a tense stalemate, the cops began pulling back and demonstrators followed them up Instytutska Street.Portraits of Ukrainians in February 2014 whose weekslong protests became known as the Revolution of Dignity.ANASTASIA TAYLOR-LIND

As a new government sought to take charge in Kyiv, Russia was launching an invasion of Crimea, a peninsula in the Black Sea. The troops bore no insignia and were dubbed “little green men,” a crude effort by the Russians to mask their own involvement. Kyiv was in disarray and struggled to muster a response. The U.S., which had years earlier pressured Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons in return for “security assurances,” did next to nothing, and Putin swiftly annexed the peninsula.

Next, he set his eyes on a bigger prize. After Russian agents tried and failed to whip up revolutions in cities across Ukraine’s east and south, a team of commandos led by a Russian former intelligence officer seized the eastern city of Slovyansk. Russia poured weapons and irregular fighters across the border. As Kyiv fought back, Russia sent in more sophisticated weapons, including a missile launcher that downed the MH17 passenger jet on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 aboard.

 

 

A woman on a tram in downtown Mariupol on May 27, 2015. PHOTO: JEROME SESSINI/MAGNUM PHOTOS

After Ukrainian forces gained the upper hand, Moscow sent in its regular army, which dealt Kyiv’s troops a devastating blow in the city of Ilovaisk in September 2014. Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire but Russia continued its assaults, eventually taking the airport in the eastern capital of Donetsk after months of battles. In February 2015, Russian forces surrounded the city of Debaltseve, forcing Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to sign a new cease-fire deal known as the Minsk agreement that carved out two would-be statelets in eastern Ukraine that were run from Moscow.

2015-22: Ukraine turns away from Russia 

That cease-fire agreement largely halted fighting along the front lines, save for a few hot spots. As Russia sought to destabilize Ukraine from within, the country was shifting away from its former imperial master. Hundreds of Lenin statues were torn down. Ukrainians began switching from speaking Russian to Ukrainian.

 

Villagers who support a Ukrainian Orthodox Church independent of Russian influence celebrated a Christian holiday in western Ukraine on Aug. 14, 2018. PHOTO: JOSEPH SYWENKYJ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Ukrainians began turning away from the Russian Orthodox Church, for centuries the country’s dominant church. Individual parishes switched allegiance to a church run from Kyiv. Then, in January 2019, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the foremost leader in Orthodox Christianity, granted Ukraine its own independent church, despite Russian opposition.

 

A Ukrainian soldier fired at an enemy position in the eastern city of Avdiivka on Sept. 16, 2018. PHOTO: MANU BRABO

At the same time, Ukrainians were tired of the war and the corruption that hampered the economy and state institutions. In a presidential election, a television comedian called Volodymyr Zelensky won by a landslide in the first round. He promised to bring an end to the war and root out corruption.

When he took office, that proved harder than he had thought. Putin showed no interest in a deal unless it gave him greater control over Ukraine. So Zelensky began pursuing closer ties with the West. He sought to advance Ukraine’s efforts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.

Those efforts were going nowhere fast, but Putin was making increasingly agitated statements about Ukraine and stating Russian historical claims to Ukrainian territory and the right to rule there. By fall 2021, he was gathering tens of thousands of troops around Ukraine. The U.S. warned he was planning to invade. Zelensky, fearing social and economic upheaval, urged calm.

2022-present: Russia launches biggest land war in Europe since World War II

In the early hours of Feb. 24, Russia launched airstrikes and armored columns against Ukraine. Tanks poured over the border from the north, south and east. The most important initial thrust was on Kyiv, where civilians came to the aid of the army and thwarted the assault. The Russians were halted and, by the end of March, repelled from the capital.

When the Russians withdrew, they left hundreds of civilians dead in towns and villages around Kyiv, including Bucha. That hardened Ukrainian determination and support from the West, which began providing dozens of heavier weapons, such as artillery systems. Russia regrouped and began advancing in the northeast, but by fall its troops were exhausted, and a lightning thrust by Kyiv’s forces took back hundreds of square miles of territory around Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv.

By the end of the year, Ukraine had regained half the territory it had lost to Russia since the start of the war. Zelensky received a hero’s welcome on a visit to Washington.

But Russia had firmed up its defensive lines with thousands of convicts recruited by the Wagner paramilitary group. Wagner led assaults on the eastern city of Bakhmut, the bloodiest battle of the war, that ended in a Russian victory in May 2023.

The following month, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive led by thousands of troops trained and equipped with tanks from the West. It quickly went wrong, as the Russians had built stiff defenses, including minefields and trench systems. By fall, Ukraine had managed to take only one village in the main direction of its assaults, and the operation petered out.Ukraine formed mobile air-defense units to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks on cities. 

As the full-scale war approached its third year, it became a bloody stalemate. Ukraine, its manpower and equipment depleted, is on the defensive. Russia is inching forward, but has been unable to achieve a large breakthrough. For Ukraine, much now depends on whether Western allies can muster more military support.