Views on Ukraine situation from around the world

[Erwin]

Can anyone point me to any posts on these forums or anywhere that defines what Ukraine "winning" actually means or looks like?  Folks seem to assume that "winning" means Ukraine gets back its eastern territories. However, despite many requests, I can't recall any sensible posts on how Ukraine is actually going to do that.

The only strategy seems to be a forlorn hope that Putin will disappear and Russia will disintegrate.  This despite the regular articles in papers like, WSJ that show in charts and stats that Russia doing just fine thank you with new markets in China, Iran and all the other nations in the ME, Africa and S America that quietly support Russia and China. 

It seems to be forgotten that approx 50% of the eastern parts of Ukraine are occupied by Russian sympathizers who were happy for Russia to annex the territories.  If Ukraine ever did reoccupy its eastern provinces, Ukraine could face an potentially endless "Vietnam-like" unconventional/guerilla civil war.  

In addition... there is the potential crisis in Transnistria.  Here is an update from WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moldova-transnistria-maia-sandu-vladimir-putin-ukraine-1744bcec?mod=opinion_feat1_editorials_pos3

Transnistria is a pro-Russian breakaway territory that Mr. Putin is using to foment political turmoil in the rest of Moldova, a small country located between Ukraine and Romania. On Wednesday separatist officials there claimed they’re enduring “socio-economic strangulation” as Moldova “unleashed an economic war against our people.” They appealed to the Russian Federation Council and Russian State Duma to “implement diplomatic measures to protect/defend Transnistria.”

After Mr. Putin launched his full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, all of Transnistria’s trade has passed through customs and border points under the authority of the Moldovan capital of Chișinău. Moldova wants to reintegrate Transnistria, and this year it introduced regulations requiring companies in the breakaway region to pay import and export duties that will go toward Moldova’s national budget.

From 2001 until this year the duties paid by Transnistrian companies have been a revenue stream for the separatists. Russia’s proxies are now citing Moldova’s recent policy change as a pretext for Wednesday’s appeal to Moscow. But the real issue is that Moldova has been moving closer to the West, and under President Maia Sandu it has become a candidate to join the European Union.

Transnistria claimed Wednesday it is “committed to peaceful political-diplomatic methods of solving disagreements.” But it added that it would “fight tenaciously for its own identity and the rights and interests of Transnistrian people and will not shy back from protecting/defending them.”

The Institute for the Study of War notes that “Transnistrian officials specifically used ‘zashchita,’ a word that means both ‘defense’ and ‘protection’ in their request, likely to set conditions for the Kremlin to interpret ‘defense’ in a military sense if it so chooses.” This is the familiar Russian playbook for justifying intervention in a nearby country: Encourage separatists to claim discrimination and ask for Russian help.

Moldova’s only protection is Ukraine, which has stopped the Russians from advancing west of Kherson and has driven the Russian navy back in the Black Sea. This has shielded Moldova from the imminent threat of a Russian military intervention.

 

[Erwin]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-needs-a-war-footing-world-war-ii-knudsen-ukraine-russia-2c0de22e?mod=WTRN_pos5&cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_171&cx_artPos=4

From WSJ: "Two years after Russia invaded, Ukrainian forces are outgunned. Russia has a 6-to-1 ammunition advantage along the front lines. If this persists, Vladimir Putin’s ambitions will become a reality.

The imbalance in weapons supplies is a major failure of Ukraine’s allies in the West. North Korea delivered as much artillery ammunition to Russia in one month as the European Union has been able to deliver to Ukraine in one year. Russia produces three million shells a year, while the U.S. and Europe combined are able to produce only 1.2 million for Kyiv. Despite the vast economic might of the democratic world, we are being outproduced by an arsenal of autocracy in Russia, Iran and North Korea.

If Western allies don’t immediately ramp up the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the future will be bleak. If Mr. Putin isn’t stopped in Ukraine, it will mean decades of instability and conflict in Europe. We need to wake up to that danger and put our economies on a war footing."

 

[Erwin]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-in-need-of-troops-lowers-age-of-conscription-2d67844e?mod=world_lead_pos4

"Ukraine lowered the age of military conscription to 25 as part of an effort to bolster its depleted armed forces after two years of fighting Russia’s invasion and facing renewed assaults. The controversial bill, which President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law on Tuesday, is the most significant overhaul of Ukraine’s war bureaucracy since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Men between 18 and 60 have been prohibited from leaving the country since the start of the war, but only those who were at least 27 were eligible to be drafted. Zelensky’s backers and some opponents said the bill had been delayed because it was unpopular.

The change comes as Ukraine’s defensive lines come under heavy pressure from massive Russian assaults. Front-line commanders say they are short of personnel and ammunition, as a supplemental aid package is stuck in Congress. Ukrainian officers say they are expecting Russia to mount a significant offensive around the start of the summer, which is aimed at expanding the nearly 20% of territory the invading forces already occupy."

This seems bizarre, as that means Ukraine is conscripting men (are women being conscripted as well?) who are likely have families, careers and other responsibilities.  Usually its the 18-22 years old who get sent to the front.

[hcrof]

On 4/3/2024 at 8:53 PM, Erwin said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-in-need-of-troops-lowers-age-of-conscription-2d67844e?mod=world_lead_pos4

"Ukraine lowered the age of military conscription to 25 as part of an effort to bolster its depleted armed forces after two years of fighting Russia’s invasion and facing renewed assaults. The controversial bill, which President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law on Tuesday, is the most significant overhaul of Ukraine’s war bureaucracy since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Men between 18 and 60 have been prohibited from leaving the country since the start of the war, but only those who were at least 27 were eligible to be drafted. Zelensky’s backers and some opponents said the bill had been delayed because it was unpopular.

The change comes as Ukraine’s defensive lines come under heavy pressure from massive Russian assaults. Front-line commanders say they are short of personnel and ammunition, as a supplemental aid package is stuck in Congress. Ukrainian officers say they are expecting Russia to mount a significant offensive around the start of the summer, which is aimed at expanding the nearly 20% of territory the invading forces already occupy."

This seems bizarre, as that means Ukraine is conscripting men (are women being conscripted as well?) who are likely have families, careers and other responsibilities.  Usually its the 18-22 years old who get sent to the front.

Just found this thread. The Ukrainian government has been able to put off difficult decisions for too long because of the stalemate at the front. It's not like the russian narrative of the male population has been emptied from the country, it's more like trench warfare is dangerous and unglamorous so no-one wants to do it. But there isn't an existential sense of crisis in the country so the can is kicked down the road. 

If the Russians actually made meaningful gains I wouldn't be surprised if there was a rush to the recruitment offices. 

[Erwin]

I agree.  It is vital that aggression by a foreign country is punished.  However I don't see anything positive happening in Ukraine so long as China is basically bankrolling Russia. 

FWIW: My dad was born in Ukraine, but sent to Poland cos the Russians/Soviets were massacring Ukrainians at that time and as a result of the Holodor he lost his entire family and was orphaned shortly after.  My mother's family come from the Baltics and they lost family members to the Russians/Soviets and most survivors were made refugees to Finland, Sweden and the UK.  One relative more recently married a Russian (didn't work out).  So, I have a better than most concept of the Russia character and what the Russians are capable of.  

I have also been in the USSR, then Russia, and more recently (per my first post) several of the satellite nations to see what they are thinking.  My experience tells me that the only realistic plan to get a positive result in Ukraine is to first degrade China to the point that we can pressure China to pressure Russia.  

The current thread on Ukraine beautifully illustrates Philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer's saying, “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”  

The other one that is pertinent:  George Orwell — '...reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.'

Anyhow... am off to Africa next.  See you end of May. 

Edited April 9 by Erwin

[Erwin]

And here is a timely WSJ article about it all:

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-and-china-double-down-on-defying-u-s-446f5f7f?mod=latest_headlines

Russia and China Double Down on Defying U.S.

Moscow and Beijing are pulling closer after Washington warned China to avoid strengthening Russia’s military capacity as the war in Ukraine drags on

Russia and China have pledged to deepen their growing alliance and shared opposition to what they describe as the U.S.’s attempts to dominate the world order, with Moscow again seeking to boost trade with Beijing as it looks for new ways to bypass the Western sanctions imposed for its war on Ukraine.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday after the U.S. increased the volume of warnings that China should step back from helping the Russians pursue the war against their smaller neighbor. The meeting, which followed separate talks with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also came against a backdrop of a growing tussle for influence in the global south between the West on one hand, and China and Russia and their partners on the other.

Lavrov echoed some of the language of the Cold War in his remarks following the discussions, and again criticized what he called the West’s proclivity for falling in behind Washington, and the U.S.’s attempts to get the rest of the world to follow the same line.

“There is no place for dictatorship, hegemony, neocolonial and colonial practices, which are now being applied by the United States and all the rest of the collective West unquestioningly submitting to the will of Washington,” Lavrov said.

China has officially maintained a position of neutrality over the Ukraine war, but it has remained an economic lifeline for Russia, deepening trade ties that have helped Russian President Vladimir Putin stabilize his economy despite Western sanctions. 

Beijing has also sought to position itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and dispatched an envoy to Moscow, Kyiv and other capitals. Its proposal last year aimed at ending the conflict was discounted by European officials who saw China as hewing too closely to Russia’s position.

Wang said China “hopes to see a cease-fire and an end to the war as soon as possible,” while Lavrov said Moscow was “grateful to our Chinese friends for their objective, balanced position, and for their willingness to play a positive role in the matter of a political and diplomatic settlement.”

During a call last week, President Biden warned Xi about U.S. concerns that Beijing is supporting Russia’s defense industry.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated those concerns during a visit to China this week, telling officials that Chinese companies that aid in Russia’s military procurement “will face significant consequences.”

…a trilateral summit this week that is expected to include talks on countering China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to stake its claims to much of the South China Sea.

Chinese companies have sold microchips, jamming equipment and jet-fighter parts to Russian entities, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Chinese exports of earth moving equipment to Russia have also shot up since the start of the war, which analysts say may be aiding the construction efforts of Russian forces in Ukraine.

During a visit to China, the Treasury Secretary also raised concerns about Chinese firms and financial institutions helping provide goods to Russia that Moscow is using in its invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Florence

 Trade between Russia and China grew last year by more than 26% to $240 billion.

Energy was a key component of Russian exports, and China—which doesn’t observe the Western price cap—has been a leading buyer. Last month, China received a record volume of Russian crude as Indian purchases fell over concerns about sanctions, shipping-data company Vortexa reported.

Xi and Putin declared a friendship with “no limits” between their two countries in early 2022, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. While Beijing has sought at times to play down that declaration, it has never condemned Putin’s war, or even called it a war, instead describing it as the “Ukraine crisis.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday that Lavrov’s visit to Beijing could be considered to be preparation for “upcoming contacts at the highest level,” between the two nations, but he declined to confirm whether the Kremlin leader was planning another trip to China this year.

[Erwin]

And another timely one on Ukraine graft:

https://www.wsj.com/world/eggs-ammo-and-underwear-inside-ukraines-new-push-against-military-graft-8b47b6d9?mod=world_lead_pos2

 KYIV, Ukraine—Masked Ukrainian security officers have raided properties, seized wads of cash and detained suspects in a recent crackdown on graft in the purchase of goods for the military ranging from eggs to artillery shells. 

As Ukraine faces setbacks on the battlefield in the third year of Russia’s invasion, attention has turned to corruption that is corroding support for the war effort at home and abroad.

The appointment of Bezrukova follows a series of procurement scandals that erupted after Ukrainian investigative journalists revealed the Defense Ministry had purchased eggs at more than twice their market price. President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the country’s defense minister in an effort to quell a furor in Ukraine and disquiet among Western allies.

Since then, law enforcement has carried out a number of corruption-related arrests. Among the most high-profile cases is that of businessman Ihor Hrynkevych, whose companies won contracts to supply clothing and underwear to the armed forces despite previously being involved in construction.

The companies weren’t able to meet the standards outlined in the contracts, resulting in losses of more than $30 million, according to Ukrainian law enforcement. Hrynkevych was detained in December while trying to pay a $500,000 bribe to a security official. His lawyer didn’t respond to a request for comment.

A separate investigation by Ukrainian law enforcement implicated senior defense ministry officials in embezzling $40 million meant to purchase artillery shells for the army.

[Erwin]

Interesting WSJ article re effectiveness of drones in Ukraine:

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/how-american-drones-failed-to-turn-the-tide-in-ukraine-b0ebbac3?mod=latest_headlines

 

 

"The Silicon Valley company Skydio sent hundreds of its best drones to Ukraine to help fight the Russians. Things didn’t go well. 

Skydio’s drones flew off course and were lost, victims of Russia’s electronic warfare. The company has since gone back to the drawing board to build a new fleet.

Most small drones from U.S. startups have failed to perform in combat, dashing companies’ hopes that a badge of being battle-tested would bring the startups sales and attention. It is also bad news for the Pentagon, which needs a reliable supply of thousands of small, unmanned aircraft.

In the first war to feature small drones prominently, American companies still have no meaningful presence. Made-in-America drones tend to be expensive, glitchy and hard to repair, said drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials and former U.S. defense officials. 

Absent solutions from the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to fill its drone arsenal.

“The general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don’t work as well as other systems,” Skydio Chief Executive Adam Bry said, calling his own drone “not a very successful platform on the front lines.”

Ukrainian officials have found U.S.-made drones fragile and unable to overcome Russian jamming and GPS blackout technology. At times, they couldn’t take off, complete missions or return home. American drones often fail to fly at the distances advertised or carry substantial payloads.

Small American drones for the battlefield “have been underdeveloped,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Ukraine’s Come Back Alive, a charity that has supplied more than 30,000 drones to the military.

American drone company executives say they didn’t anticipate the electronic warfare in Ukraine. 

The innovation cycle in this war is very short.”

Using Chinese drones

Ukraine has found ways to get tens of thousands of drones as well as drone parts from China. The military is using off-the-shelf Chinese drones, primarily from SZ DJI Technology.

Ukraine has also developed a domestic drone industry that relies on Chinese components. Ukrainian factories are churning out hundreds of thousands of small, cheap drones that can carry explosives. It also produces larger drones that can strike deep into enemy territory and reach Russian ships on the Black Sea. 

Dubynskyi said Ukraine wants to test and use more U.S. drones. “Nevertheless, we are looking for cost-effective solutions,” he said.

Ukrainian forces are burning through about 10,000 drones a month, which they couldn’t afford if they had to buy expensive U.S. drones. Many American commercial drones cost tens of thousands of dollars more each than a Chinese model.

 

The U.S. is racing to assemble a fleet of next-generation drones to stay competitive with China, as concerns rise about a potential conflict over Taiwan. WSJ explores whether the U.S. can work fast enough to deter its adversary in the South China Sea."