How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Eug85]

12 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Let me assure you this is probably the prevalent view in Polish media right now or at least one of the most common ones. And we are quite close to the Ukraine, with very frequent contacts, so I consider this quite trustworthy. In particular Poroshenko has no influence at all over the information flowing from the Ukraine to Poland.

Well, why does Ukrainian propaganda have no influence on Polish media? In your previous message you directly stated that even Russian propaganda influences the mood in Poland

[Eug85]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

My only point here is to be aware that Ukrainian political decision making is not as monolitical as headlines in many western newspapers assume. It's not only about Z's and his ideas/actions. We can agree though that recent stance in US elections is considered quite risky. Just on principles, nobody likes if other country meddles in his own election process; many in Ukraine get that even if they hate Trump and his stance regarding Ukraine.

And who do you think led Zelensky before Yermak? Bohdan? Akhmetov? Kolomoisky? Stop it. I understand that Zelensky somehow offended the Poles, but this is not a reason to come up with conspiracy theories and impose them on us

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Well, why does Ukrainian propaganda have no influence on Polish media? In your previous message you directly stated that even Russian propaganda influences the mood in Poland

I think you mistook my post with someone else's.

[Beleg85]

27 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

And who do you think led Zelensky before Yermak? Bohdan? Akhmetov? Kolomoisky? Stop it. I understand that Zelensky somehow offended the Poles, but this is not a reason to come up with conspiracy theories and impose them on us

Zel, is that you under new nickname? Because the way you post and talk is identical. Also, I wrote about RU influences, not @Maciej Zwolinski.

27 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

And who do you think led Zelensky before Yermak? Bohdan? Akhmetov? Kolomoisky? Stop it. I understand that Zelensky somehow offended the Poles, but this is not a reason to come up with conspiracy theories and impose them on us

Nobody "led" Zelensky in strict sense, and it has nothing to do with any offenses to anybody but fair assessment of Ukrainian decision-making. It is a fact Yermak's voice weight a lot in decision-making on various levels, and they are collectivelly made within very tight circle (like in many countries, btw.). You are truly dipped in internal politics of UA if you think that Poroshenko/Zelensky conflict is what shapes other' countries opinion. Most people abroad don't even know such conflict exist, don't care or simply imagine Zelensky as stereotypical heroic war leader, attributing all decisions to him (or conversely, they imagine "a salesman", as MAGA crowd do).

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-real-power-broker-yermak-zelensky-russia-war-biden-2023-12?IR=T

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/18/andriy-yermak-power-chief-ukraine/

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/court-zelensky-ukraine-rocked-by-aides-thirst-for-power-57z9q8fwf

Edited 2 hours ago by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Zel, is that you under new nickname? Because the way you post and talk is identical.

That is my working theory. He claims he is Ukrainian now at least. Before this he was “just a guy with Google Translate” who popped up in Aug.

[Carolus]

 

No one will suspect anything!

 

[TheVulture]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is my working theory. He claims he is Ukrainian now at least. Before this he was “just a guy with Google Translate” who popped up in Aug.

He did actually first appear a few days after Zeleban got nuked, posted a few times and then vanished for a while. Half of his messages look like something Zel would have written, and the other half seem much longer and with better English than Zel, who tended to only write one or two line posts.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

He did actually first appear a few days after Zeleban got nuked, posted a few times and then vanished for a while. Half of his messages look like something Zel would have written, and the other half seem much longer and with better English than Zel, who tended to only write one or two line posts.

At 6.4 million views I think we merit at least one low level Russian IO operative. We had quite a few Russians on this forum up until Feb ‘22 who spent a lot of effort promoting a bunch of pro-Russian narratives. We got accused of nerfing Soviet gear in CW in some plot to make Russians look bad etc. And then they all bolted once the war started - a few might be pushing up sunflowers right now. But it is not impossible a few laybacks hung around to make trouble.

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I think you mistook my post with someone else's.

It's true, I got you mixed up. However, this does not change the essence of the question. Beleg 85 directly indicates that propaganda does influence Polish opinion.

[Butschi]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is my working theory. He claims he is Ukrainian now at least. Before this he was “just a guy with Google Translate” who popped up in Aug.

Not sure. He has a very distinctive pattern.

1. Post something, preferrably moralizing and provoking.

2. When challenged, ignore almost all the points the other one made.

3. (Optionally, say something like "It is strange" than quote something you wrote out of context.)

4. Shoot back a number of questions that are provoking/moralizing.

5. Say something like "I'm only interested in understanding your logic".

6. Repeat steps 2 thru 5.

7. If too heavily criticized, blame it on language issues. (Google Translate, etc.)

8. (Optionally post something meaningful, every once in a while so as to appear like you are actually interested in a meaningful discussion.)

Zeleban, as far as I remember, posted differently.

@Battlefront.com sorry, that back and forth about the graph with Finnish exports was of course totally meaningless (beyond my first slightly overzealus answer) and added nothing useful to the discussion. I simply wanted to find out how Eug85 reacts when being treated with his own strategy.

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Zel, is that you under new nickname? Because the way you post and talk is identical. Also, I wrote about RU influences, not @Maciej Zwolinski.

Nobody "led" Zelensky in strict sense, and it has nothing to do with any offenses to anybody but fair assessment of Ukrainian decision-making. It is a fact Yermak's voice weight a lot in decision-making on various levels, and they are collectivelly made within very tight circle (like in many countries, btw.). You are truly dipped in internal politics of UA if you think that Poroshenko/Zelensky conflict is what shapes other' countries opinion. Most people abroad don't even know such conflict exist, don't care or simply imagine Zelensky as stereotypical heroic war leader, attributing all decisions to him (or conversely, they imagine "a salesman", as MAGA crowd do).

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-real-power-broker-yermak-zelensky-russia-war-biden-2023-12?IR=T

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/18/andriy-yermak-power-chief-ukraine/

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/court-zelensky-ukraine-rocked-by-aides-thirst-for-power-57z9q8fwf

And yet, you, being a non-Ukrainian, know very well about this conflict between Zelensky and Poroshenko. In addition, those participants of this forum who are interested in Ukrainian politics are well aware of this. Steve also recently mentioned this.

You can stick to your theories. However, you shouldn't force them on others. I'm already reading your third post about Ukraine being ruled by a man from the shadows.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Not sure. He has a very distinctive pattern.

1. Post something, preferrably moralizing and provoking.

2. When challenged, ignore almost all the points the other one made.

3. (Optionally, say something like "It is strange" than quote something you wrote out of context.)

4. Shoot back a number of questions that are provoking/moralizing.

5. Say something like "I'm only interested in understanding your logic".

6. Repeat steps 2 thru 5.

7. If too heavily criticized, blame it on language issues. (Google Translate, etc.)

8. (Optionally post something meaningful, every once in a while so as to appear like you are actually interested in a meaningful discussion.)

Zeleban, as far as I remember, posted differently.

@Battlefront.com sorry, that back and forth about the graph with Finnish exports was of course totally meaningless (beyond my first slightly overzealus answer) and added nothing useful to the discussion. I simply wanted to find out how Eug85 reacts when being treated with his own strategy.

Zeleban had a different pattern but same goal - build some credibility and then switch to pro-Russian defeatism. Posing as a Ukrainian gave this more weight to outside readers "if a Ukrainian thinks it is that bad..." Zeleban was far more ham handed about it - the war was supposed to be a complete loss by now- so maybe tactics are evolving. We will see Eug85 brushed up on all out defeatism last week - Ukrainian officers etc, but then pulled back once called out.  Moved onto "West Sux" etc. Regardless, the news is never good "always bad" is the primary theme to watch out for. 

 

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That is my working theory. He claims he is Ukrainian now at least. Before this he was “just a guy with Google Translate” who popped up in Aug.

So, we're back where we started. I sound like another guy who also uses Google Translate.
By the way, I still haven't claimed to be Ukrainian, but if I were, does that give you the right to make fun of me?

[Eug85]

17 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Not sure. He has a very distinctive pattern.

1. Post something, preferrably moralizing and provoking.

2. When challenged, ignore almost all the points the other one made.

3. (Optionally, say something like "It is strange" than quote something you wrote out of context.)

4. Shoot back a number of questions that are provoking/moralizing.

5. Say something like "I'm only interested in understanding your logic".

6. Repeat steps 2 thru 5.

7. If too heavily criticized, blame it on language issues. (Google Translate, etc.)

8. (Optionally post something meaningful, every once in a while so as to appear like you are actually interested in a meaningful discussion.)

Zeleban, as far as I remember, posted differently.

@Battlefront.com sorry, that back and forth about the graph with Finnish exports was of course totally meaningless (beyond my first slightly overzealus answer) and added nothing useful to the discussion. I simply wanted to find out htreated with his own strategy.

Not only that, while you are not on the forum and I do not waste my time arguing with you, I manage to translate and publish several good posts

[Eug85]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Zeleban had a different pattern but same goal - build some credibility and then switch to pro-Russian defeatism. Posing as a Ukrainian gave this more weight to outside readers "if a Ukrainian thinks it is that bad..." Zeleban was far more ham handed about it - the war was supposed to be a complete loss by now- so maybe tactics are evolving. We will see Eug85 brushed up on all out defeatism last week - Ukrainian officers etc, but then pulled back once called out.  Moved onto "West Sux" etc. Regardless, the news is never good "always bad" is the primary theme to watch out for. 

 

News is not good or bad. It is objective.

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

So, we're back where we started. I sound like another guy who also uses Google Translate.
By the way, I still haven't claimed to be Ukrainian, but if I were, does that give you the right to make fun of me?

I'd be curious to see the original language "So, we are back to where we started." was translated from. 

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

So, we're back where we started. I sound like another guy who also uses Google Translate.
By the way, I still haven't claimed to be Ukrainian, but if I were, does that give you the right to make fun of me?

I am not making fun of you, and save the wounded crocodile routine. You were already caught out on one lie with GT by more than one member. You are using a lot of "we" language in this last exchange with our Polish friends. Or perhaps that is a nuance being injected by Google Translate?

I do not trust you. If that hurts your feelings, so be it.

[Beleg85]

31 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

And yet, you, being a non-Ukrainian, know very well about this conflict between Zelensky and Poroshenko. In addition, those participants of this forum who are interested in Ukrainian politics are well aware of this. Steve also recently mentioned this.

We are not average guys I guess.

And there is nothing "shodowy" about Yermak if he is officially part of delegation to every important meeting, sometimes literally stealing the space by his sole pesence. Don't worry, we had this too in much more silly way :

Also there is brazillion articles out there, by foreginers and Ukrainians alike on the topic of power sharing in Bankova, including those I just posted- that you choose to ignore. Really, not everything is within this epic Poroshenko / Zelesnky struggle.

If you want to contribute, you can for example send us articles about here what average Ukrainians (and the press...) think about recent Washington visit and its potentiall effects. This is important event for outcome of the war.

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Zeleban had a different pattern but same goal - build some credibility and then switch to pro-Russian defeatism. Posing as a Ukrainian gave this more weight to outside readers "if a Ukrainian thinks it is that bad..." Zeleban was far more ham handed about it - the war was supposed to be a complete loss by now- so maybe tactics are evolving. We will see Eug85 brushed up on all out defeatism last week - Ukrainian officers etc, but then pulled back once called out.  Moved onto "West Sux" etc. Regardless, the news is never good "always bad" is the primary theme to watch out for. 

I don't think he is muscovy influencer to be honest, rather a guy from UA who is genuinly little lost. Russian trolls tend to be more direct and sharper in their assessments.

35 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Zeleban, as far as I remember, posted differently.

Many of these are identical and modus operandi is quite similar overall. Z. provided a lot of extensive translations from Mashoviets and others when in cool mode, though.

 

BTW. did anybody knows what's with Haiduk? I'm fighting with massive backlog and noticed he didn't posted for quite a while.

Edited 37 minutes ago by Beleg85

[Eug85]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I don't think he is muscovy influencer to be honest, rather a guy from UA who is genuinly little lost. Russian trolls tend to be more direct and sharper in their assessments.

This was your fourth post in a row about the shadow governance of Ukraine.

And what do you think is my “lostness”?

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'd be curious to see the original language "So, we are back to where we started." was translated from. 

This is a strange one. Ukrainian sounds so formal in direct translation to English. I have seen this in our genuine Ukrainian members.

According to GT, the phrase "So, we are back to where we started." Translates into - Отже, ми повернулися до того, з чого почали. It flips consistently in GT. But if you plug that Ukrainian phrase into ChatGPT we get - "So, we have returned to where we began."

The key is "back," which like many English word has too many meanings in informal speech. 

Now in Russian, ChatGPT does have a direct translation:

 Итак, мы вернулись к тому, с чего начали. "So, we are back to where we started."

Of course this guy has conveniently avoided any and all affiliations, so he could be speaking Portuguese:

Assim, voltamos ao ponto de partida. "Thus, we return to the starting point."

[Eug85]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not making fun of you, and save the wounded crocodile routine. You were already caught out on one lie with GT by more than one member. You are using a lot of "we" language in this last exchange with our Polish friends. Or perhaps that is a nuance being injected by Google Translate?

I do not trust you. If that hurts your feelings, so be it.

At least we are in solidarity on something

[Eug85]

Is this still a thread where the war in Ukraine is discussed or has it been renamed to find 100 reasons to insult Eug85?