How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

Oooh, is it Zeleban bashing day again?

C'mon guys, play nice, this could be an interesting discussion.

I caught part of a story on the radio (NPR) this morning about coordinating the diverse drone manufacturing. I've been wondering about Ukraine's manufacturing capability, it seems to me they're working on it but it's a knotty problem. If not done properly they are only building sandcastles. Heavy industry may not be practical without a solid supply-line of AD assets. There have been numerous articles on the successes of garage-based manufacturing.

To a casual observer it may appear that Ukraine is only looking for a handout, a deeper look reveals that they ARE looking to develop some self-sufficiency.

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Er, what?

Do you hope that a pro-Russian government will come to power in your country and Russia will “forgive” you for your unreasonable opposition to its power?

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Im talking about support, not building a MIC

 

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I do not expect these industrial complexes to be built or supported by the US, even under Biden. Its up to Europe now.

I'm sorry, you got me a little confused here... I guess you meant this?

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think what he means is establishing factories in Ukraine to produce stuff that is beyond the capacity to produce in existing factories within the EU.  Or at the very least creating short term facilities in Ukraine to service vehicles in use there. 

Ok, EU companies building factories in Ukraine (possibly subsidized with EU money) is an entirely different beast than basically giving money to support/build up competitors.

I mean, we all know how this aid business, at least in parts, works: we generously give money that we expect to be spent on our products.

[Kraft]

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Frankly moving over open ground on foot look and feels like a better way to go. 

And meet Mr Cluster, Mr FPV drone, Mr Mortar, Mr MG and sniper fire for 2.5kms walking speed? Even the russian commanders were able to figure out thats not gonna work, Im sure they are aware tanks go boom when hit by drones but driving is the only way to cover the distance. Not to mention, you need heavy support to take dug in troops behind several obstacles, AP/AT mine belts and with a massive height advantage. And they did.

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Are we talking about this Avdiivka crisis?

Lets call it Avdiivka success then, much like Bakhmut was such a success, It bled the russians dry! Lets meet in Bakhmut and celebrate, Im sure Putin is furious after losing all those convicts.

Did it not completely stop the UA offensive which was supposed to go on through the winter, the gains that are currently being recaptured by russian forces, executing those who are left to hold the lines in the south?

As much as people here expected hundreds of armored vehicles to go and take 2.5 km of land the day before russian advance started, why should I believe you know a similar assault is not coming next month to close the last 1.5km?

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poised to crush UA defence...on the same damn lines it has been sitting on for weeks?

Literally the same comments with Bakhmut about a year ago

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There were 100% a bunch of jammers up there too, so drones are basically out in precision attacks on entranched positions. 

This, after endless videos of Russian soldiers getting grenade dropped and freakin chased around trees.  Your deduction after all that is "Gee we really need more tanks and IFVs"?  We need unmanned systems that are resistant to jamming...another thing a Ukrainian defence industry could master.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I said, as a russian commander, how would you take this poisiton? There are no videos of UA soldiers being hit by FPVs on top of the heap that I know of, yet it is a prime location to neutralize. Im sure the russians tried, now how are you taking it? By walking? Try that in CM, even without drones hunting everthing in the unprotected greyzone.

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As opposed to what?  Several thousand armored vehicles coming from German factories in the next 1-2 years?  So Ukraine can move by inches.  Talk about "staying grounded".  We had better figure out a swarm of UAS and fast because it is likely the only way to break this deadlock.

I have no problem in sustaining the conventional suite that the UA has to hold the lines but doubling-down on failures that the Ukrainian CHOD has openly declared - namely that this war is freezing for reasons other than "enough tanks"- is really dumb at this point in the war.

Dont disagree, drones can prove decisive. But what I am talking about here is and being called defeatist for, is an MIC that the US "wants" to build to cover the lack of support from now on. IFVs, SAM, Engeneering, and so on, will not be buildable by UA within 1-2 years in a scale to not only cover losses but also grow at the same rate as russian military in that time.

There are many reasons why this wont happen, one of which are the US funds for that, currently at 0$ which may not be able to cover massive underground factories to cope with the highest losses since? WW2? 

Edited January 5 by Kraft

[Kraft]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm sorry, you got me a little confused here... I guess you meant this?

Yes, its up to Europe now, because as I said, the US will not built a UA ((underground)) MIC to sustain this attrition war on the same level with russian MIC. 

Its a dumb talking point so their press conference is not just "youre on your own, but we support you in our hearts". 

Edited January 5 by Kraft

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Do you hope that a pro-Russian government will come to power in your country and Russia will “forgive” you for your unreasonable opposition to its power?

Nope, what makes you think so?

8 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Oooh, is it Zeleban bashing day again?

No, I simply try make heads or tails of this post.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Hahah. How has your rhetoric changed? From "How dare you doubt the steadfastness of American support" to "I don't know, go underground"

Hahaha

This.

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I never thought that I would admire the coherence and coordination of the actions of North Korea and Russia, but it seems that time has come. While opponents are paralyzed by internal problems and conflicts, it’s time to try to change the situation in their favor, and for some reason it seems to me that they will succeed.

And this.  Just whose side are you on?

Oh, wait I know this dance.  You are going to throw around Russian propaganda lines, anti-western sentiments, and general doom and gloom until Steve gets irritated.  Then you will post walls of translated useful stuff to take the heat off...wait a bit, and come back around for another pass.  You realize that is exactly the same Russia "useful idiot" tactic?

So just to avoid all that for what must be the 5th or 6th time - your position in a nutshell:

- All is lost.  Ukraine is losing its will to fight and will never get it back.  In fact they are going to gleefully switch sides after this war.

- Russia is unstoppable and will roll on Poland and the Baltics once they are done with Ukraine.  With Ukrainian Divisions riding at the forefront.  And now you admire them for this...along with NK.

- The US and West are weak and scared.  Our support is clearly plummeting (and with friends like you...) because we are not hopping too with another $100B by 4 Jan and several divisions of shiny new tanks, that will be turned into scrap metal in a few months anyway...because Ukrainian will etc (gets a little blurry here.)

I was willing to write off the first few times as to war weariness but you are spending far too much effort and energy right now for someone who is burned out.

So...whose side are you on exactly? 

Edited January 5 by The_Capt

[cesmonkey]

 

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Yes, its up to Europe now, because as I said, the US will not built a UA (underground) MIC to sustain this war on the same level with russian MIC. 

Ok, so for me there is a difference in EU building or supporting an MIC in Ukraine and building or supporting a Ukrainian MIC. The former may happen, depending on conditions, the latter won't.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Literally the same comments with Bakhmut about a year ago

Exactly my point.  Bakhmut fell (kinda) and the lines have not moved an inch in sum.  We just posted a bunch of "facts" (you know those things becoming scarce here) on this couple days ago - the ground re-taken by Ukraine and taken by Russia equals zero sum.  But by all means lets make a tiny Ukrainian country town freakin Verdun.

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

And meet Mr Cluster, Mr FPV drone, Mr Mortar, Mr MG and sniper fire for 2.5kms walking speed? Even the russian commanders were able to figure out thats not gonna work, Im sure they are aware tanks go boom when hit by drones but driving is the only way to cover the distance. Not to mention, you need heavy support to take dug in troops behind several obstacles, AP/AT mine belts and with a massive height advantage. And they did.

You keep pointing to Russian mechanized success as a reason to push more mechanized at the UA...and the evidence of all of last year simply does not support it.

Mr Cluster. Mr FPV drone (which you said were all EW'd), Mr. Mortar and sniper fire, are right next to Mr ATGM and Mr Landmine and Mother C4ISR.  It does not matter how one approaches the front right now...if you do it in any sort of mass, you are going to die.  Just because the RA did "Passchendaele" on some slag heap of zero operational significance is not a reason to double down on mech right now.  It will not work.  The UA CHOD has admitted such.  The support Ukraine needs is something else.  

13 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Dont disagree, drones can prove decisive. But what I am talking about here is and being called defeatist for, is an MIC that the US "wants" to build to cover the lack of support from now on. IFVs, SAM, Engeneering, and so on, will not be buildable by UA within 1-2 years in a scale to not only cover losses but also grow at the same rate as russian military. 

There are many reasons why this wont happen, one of which are the US funds for that, currently at 0$ which may not be able to cover massive underground factories to cope with the highest losses since? WW2? 

A MIC that will be self-sustaining for a decade because that is how long this war may last.  The UA failed last summer.  They had the kit and the training and outright failed to move the ball.  The lines went no where.

Investing for the long term makes sense.  Throwing more mountains of steel at the problem, which we are going to run out of eventually is not the best option right now.  This will need to come with a graduated shift of support from tactical to strategic - no one ever said "cut off".

Ukraine needs tanks and IFVs to sustain its defence.  It needs something else entirely for offence, and we are not even sure what that is.  And it needs a MIC to sustain a war that could last much longer.

But hey. Let's all freak out.  

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Ok, so for me there is a difference in EU building or supporting an MIC in Ukraine and building or supporting a Ukrainian MIC. The former may happen, depending on conditions, the latter won't.

I only mean the supposed US plan to fund / build up a UA MIC instead of the support of the last 2 years. That MIC I say wont happen.

Whether EU supports with EU MIC in Ukraine, or selling vehicles of EU MIC to Ukraine or just donating old hand-me-downs, I havent said, as my point below the article is, its up to EU now (in whatever capacity), as US is pulling out of this, regardless of Biden/Trump.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I only mean the supposed US plan to fund / build up a UA MIC instead of the support of the last 2 years. That MIC I say wont happen.

Well lets stop dancing around it.  What possible proof do you have that this won't happen?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_South_Korea

[Zeleban]

31 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Nope, what makes you think so?

Well, I don’t know, in my opinion this is now a new trend in Europe - to elect pro-Russian dudes into your government.

Perhaps the reason is that Europeans are beginning to doubt the strength of the United States and are betting on Russia?

Edited January 5 by Zeleban

[The_Capt]

46 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Oooh, is it Zeleban bashing day again?

C'mon guys, play nice, this could be an interesting discussion.

I caught part of a story on the radio (NPR) this morning about coordinating the diverse drone manufacturing. I've been wondering about Ukraine's manufacturing capability, it seems to me they're working on it but it's a knotty problem. If not done properly they are only building sandcastles. Heavy industry may not be practical without a solid supply-line of AD assets. There have been numerous articles on the successes of garage-based manufacturing.

To a casual observer it may appear that Ukraine is only looking for a handout, a deeper look reveals that they ARE looking to develop some self-sufficiency.

Zeleban has had far more chances than he should have gotten in my opinion.  When someone openly admires NK, they belong in the outer darkness with the rest of the pro-Russian pushers we have had through here.

I agree on your last point entirely.  The trick is defining what a Ukrainian MIC looks like.  If we assume they are producing MBTs and IFVs, then we are talking very large factories with complex supply chains that will be vulnerable...so why are we talking MBTs and IFVs?

If Ukraine needs battlewagons or MRAPs that can still be done.  If they need UAS and ATGMs, a high tech MIC, that definitely can be done.  Small arms and ammo...again very doable.  Wean off western supply lines and Ukraine becomes far more resilient to western political turbulence.  Plan for a long war, because we are likely in one.

This is going to have to be a gradual shift.  How this all got translated to "The US just declared abandon ship!!!  All is lost and it is all you faults!!!" is beyond me.

Edited January 5 by The_Capt

[Kraft]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Exactly my point.  Bakhmut fell (kinda) and the lines have not moved an inch in sum.  We just posted a bunch of "facts" (you know those things becoming scarce here) on this couple days ago - the ground re-taken by Ukraine and taken by Russia equals zero sum.  But by all means lets make a tiny Ukrainian country town freakin Verdun.

Verdun is a small town with a population of 16k people, during WW1 it had less. The relative amount of forces present and their casulties over time make it important. Bakhmut was the biggest battle of this war on these scales. You may define success as trading the city and tens of thousand of the best soldiers for a bunch more convicts, I dont. And I doubt in any negotiation, convicts will play a role, cities will.

Now as for the long run implications - major US support and all the old war soviet EU stocks, + few whatever could be spared modern stuff the EU sent caused a stalemate. Now, US ends support and EU stocks are as empty as before. 

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You keep pointing to Russian mechanized success as a reason to push more mechanized at the UA...and the evidence of all of last year simply does not support it.

I dont say tank > drone.

My original point below the article was about "UA MIC" replaycing ALL the stuff. That includes SAM launchers, HMMWVS, shells, and so on. Every day I see Fundraisers to buy used unarmored cars for frontline MedEvac! So clearly, whatever there is it is not enough, now US cuts support and UA should just magically poof underground mass facilities to replace it all.

As for the need of tanks, IFVs, I say it is needed, for such a task, where a key defensive point cannot be taken by drones alone or where drones cannot even support properly. If the UA should ever be in a position to attack in such conditions, it needs vehicles, of all sorts.

As for drones, we can spin the same argument. russia is building assembly line factories way outside, these large facilities would be the focal point of any missile barrage, unless UA gets the SAM coverage to defend such facilities its unrealistic to expect more than hand soldering production in a shed or basement somewhere with parts ordered online or 3d printed with 300 euro retail printers. 

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Mr Cluster. Mr FPV drone (which you said were all EW'd), Mr. Mortar and sniper fire, are right next to Mr ATGM and Mr Landmine and Mother C4ISR.  It does not matter how one approaches the front right now...if you do it in any sort of mass, you are going to die.  Just because the RA did "Passchendaele" on some slag heap of zero operational significance is not a reason to double down on mech right now.  It will not work.  The UA CHOD has admitted such. 

It is very significant in the defence of Avdiivka and was fought over very hard. As for Avdiivka, it is the entrance towards Donetsk, somewhat relevant no? Regardless, repeating "unsignificant" for every village, city that is lost is not a solution.

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The support Ukraine needs is something else.  

What UA needs and gets have been 2 different things for 2 years, I dont think that will change any time soon.

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A MIC that will be self-sustaining for a decade because that is how long this war may last.  The UA failed last summer.  They had the kit and the training and outright failed to move the ball.  The lines went no where.

Investing for the long term makes sense.  Throwing more mountains of steel at the problem, which we are going to run out of eventually is not the best option right now.  This will need to come with a graduated shift of support from tactical to strategic - no one ever said "cut off".

Ukraine needs tanks and IFVs to sustain its defence.  It needs something else entirely for offence, and we are not even sure what that is.  And it needs a MIC to sustain a war that could last much longer.

But hey. Let's all freak out.

Are you seriously saying the US will actually build up a UA MIC? After republicans made Biden throw the towel and end support?? 

Besides claiming the 6+ mine thrawlers were going to breach 10km minebelts with drones every bush? All the kit that was needed.. and training that didnt include drones at all.. I remember you saying even a full nato suite of specialised vehicles would have a tough time breaching these lines. On top of the russian reserves, that turned out to be in the thousands while UA can count its working Leopards with 1 hand

Edited January 5 by Kraft

[Butschi]

11 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Well, I don’t know, in my opinion this is now a new trend in Europe - to elect pro-Russian dudes into your government.

Perhaps the reason is that Europeans are beginning to doubt the strength of the United States and are betting on Russia?

No, this is way more complex than you make it look here. There are a lot of things we don't like about US politics and things related to that (note: most of us actually like the country itself). Put wars like Vietnam and Iraq '03 right on top of that list. We also don't like US-style capitalism and we certainly don't like Mr. Trump. But if anything this is because of "the strength of the United States". Noone doubts US strength.

This all is basically the beef the more left leaning (as opposed to the far left who still see historical ties with Russia) people have with the US.

The recent trend towards more Russia-friendly parties has more or less nothing to do with this. Those are populist parties who are usually more leaning towards authoritarianism and therefore admire Putin (but also Trump... who... also admires Putin). What they like is the money they received from Russia. How much real friendship and loyalty that bought Putin remains to be seen (I'd say none, they will drop him like a hot potatoe if there is no more to gain). But those parties usually get elected because of all the things people don't like about "the established parties", not (or not that much) because they like Putin. They like Putin as a symbol, as the underdog who puts the powers that be into their place. But not really the person Putin or Russia.

Then of course we fear Trump or whomever his spiritual successor might be. Not because we doubt US strength but because we fear unchecked US strength. We don't like Russia or China because of that but we see the necessity to get along with them.

[Beleg85]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Ukraine needs battlewagons or MRAPs that can still be done.  If they need UAS and ATGMs, a high tech MIC, that definitely can be done.  Small arms and ammo...again very doable.  Wean off western supply lines and Ukraine becomes far more resilient to western political turbulence.  Plan for a long war, because we are likely in one.

Main workhorse and concern are still 155 mm shells, PGM or dumb. Would be difficult to produce them in Ukraine only, in mass. Even if placed underground, Russians would find a way to bomb these facilities.

Workshops and startups for drones are already working in neighbour countries, but they not formally part of traditionally understood MIC.

[Zeleban]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

We don't like Russia or China because of that but we see the necessity to get along with them.

 

I wonder what they call the desire to get along with someone who dreams of destroying you and has repeatedly directly stated this

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Do you hope that a pro-Russian government will come to power in your country and Russia will “forgive” you for your unreasonable opposition to its power?

I think AfD (the pro-Russian openly-fascist not-so-openly-nazi party) is as much on track to win next German elections, as Trump is on track to win US elections, if not more. So the answer is probably yes.

[Letter from Prague]

US will not support Ukraine at level of past two years – US State Department

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/5/7435942/

 

[Butschi]

45 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think AfD (the pro-Russian openly-fascist not-so-openly-nazi party) is as much on track to win next German elections, as Trump is on track to win US elections, if not more. So the answer is probably yes.

Since @Zeleban answered to my post, you do realize you are saying that I am probably a pro-Russian Nazi? For me personally, that is really insulting. For the record, I never voted for those morons and I'm not going to. Zeleban at least had the decency to pose it as a question.

Btw. to win an election you don't need absolute majority. So, even if AfD wins the next election that doesn't mean they represent the majority of voters. They don't at the moment. Which means you are wrong even if you weren't talking about me specifically but about the average German.

[Tux]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

You need to read articles like this correctly. They seem to be saying: “We will no longer support Ukraine”

The generous response to this would be 'you are reading too much into the article - that's not what it says'.  In the UK we have a less generous, single-word response that I think is probably more appropriate, though.

 

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Meanwhile, Russia's allies are supplying it with selling it ballistic missiles almost certainly at extortionate prices

Fixed that for you.

 

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Hahah. How has your rhetoric changed? From "How dare you doubt the steadfastness of American support" to "I don't know, go underground"

Hahaha

You do seem to spend a lot of your time intentionally 'interpreting' what people write in order to fit your 'all is lost' narrative.

The point of the response you laughed off here was, I think, to ask what Ukraine's plan is?  For the first year or so, Ukraine were in panicky, dear-god-they're-invading-help-please-send-whatever-you-can mode.  Where is Ukraine now?  Two years in, what is Ukraine's strategy for winning this war?  Surely it's not to rely on free equipment sent in by foreign nations?  I mean, I think Ukraine can rely on US/EU providing as much support as they can (given the various other factors at play) but it would be idiotic to rely on that and make no other plans to defend your country, right?  Perhaps if we knew more from Ukraine about what they are trying to do then we could all offer more insightful opinions as to how the US/EU could help.

 

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Well, I don’t know, in my opinion this is now a new trend in Europe - to elect pro-Russian dudes into your government.

Perhaps the reason is that Europeans are beginning to doubt the strength of the United States and are betting on Russia?

Your apparent understanding of how Western European people think is frankly stunningly inaccurate.

To be blunt, people in Western Europe don't give a solitary, flying **** about Russia.  They don't.  No-one talks about Russia, worries about Russia or even less considers Russia's strength when they go to the ballot box.  Ask people in the UK about Russia and they will talk about Salisbury, the World Cup and the ongoing war with Ukraine.  Some of them might remember 2014.  A few more will remember the Kursk tragedy because the Russians turned down British help to rescue the crew.  Beyond that it's probably all Yeltsin and pre-90s stuff.

What you think seems to be a reflection of Russia's own internal propaganda line -  that the West spends all its time envying and plotting against the mighty Russian people.  It's just bollocks (oh, there we are - the one-word response made it into print after all).

Edited January 5 by Tux

[Tux]

2 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Oooh, is it Zeleban bashing day again?

C'mon guys, play nice, this could be an interesting discussion.

I don't think it's about bashing; the guy posts short, often vapid but very controversial and antagonistic opinions and "interpretations".  On a discussion board such as this one the options are either to flat out ignore him or to pull him up and call out his BS.  Doing the latter is not "bashing".  If he really is a good-faith poster who's going through a tough time it may even help him to see his doomsaying argued against in a rational way.

 

2 hours ago, Sojourner said:

I caught part of a story on the radio (NPR) this morning about coordinating the diverse drone manufacturing. I've been wondering about Ukraine's manufacturing capability, it seems to me they're working on it but it's a knotty problem. If not done properly they are only building sandcastles. Heavy industry may not be practical without a solid supply-line of AD assets. There have been numerous articles on the successes of garage-based manufacturing.

To a casual observer it may appear that Ukraine is only looking for a handout, a deeper look reveals that they ARE looking to develop some self-sufficiency.

This is more the kind of info it would be useful to hear more about:  What direction is the Ukrainian war effort taking and are there more effective types of help that the US/EU can provide to a maturing combatant nation, rather than just rolling old tanks over the border to be blown up?

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Are you seriously saying the US will actually build up a UA MIC? After republicans made Biden throw the towel and end support?? 

Ok so let's end all this horsesh#t.  The great thing about the US is that they put everything out to the public.  No other nation on earth is as transparent.  So here is what Miller actually said:

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-january-4-2024/

First as to "no more money"

"QUESTION: Thank you. Let’s discuss Ukraine a little bit. How long will the latest package that you guys have sent already in December will give operations until they run out of funding again?

MR MILLER: I will let Ukraine speak to that because that pertains to – and my colleagues at the Pentagon may have some additional insight to offer on this. But ultimately, that’s a question to Ukraine to speak to because it goes to their rate of expenditure and other really military questions.

But I will say that we do need Congress to act. We are out of funding here. We know that we need to continue to support Ukraine. They need – they rely on this assistance. They rely on it to continue to fight what is a brutal Russian assault that continues, even over the – that continues every day. And so it’s important for Congress to act to continue to fund this democracy that is continuing to defend itself."

That is all about pushing Congress to act.  Inside DC baseball, not a US intent to cut off all funding.

As to current state of the war:

"QUESTION: And would you say that, given the latest developments, that the war is turning in Russia’s favor?

MR MILLER: No, I wouldn’t say that at all. I think people forget oftentimes the actual stakes of this war and what Vladimir Putin’s actual goal was, and what Ukraine has actually achieved and what it continues to achieve. Remember that Putin launched this as a war of total conquest where he wanted to take over Ukraine. He wanted to throw the government out of power. He wanted to subsume Ukraine inside Russia. Not only was Ukraine able to prevent that from happening, which everyone sort of takes for granted now but it was very not – it was very much not a settled question at the start of this war – they have managed to retake around half of the territory that Russia seized in the opening weeks of the war.

And even in the past few weeks, they continue to make battlefield gains. Remember the – over the last summer we were talking about the difficulty when Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and it looked like Ukraine wasn’t going to be able to continue to export grain. Well, because of advances that Ukraine made to open a Black Sea lane and expel the Russian fleet from certain parts of the Black Sea, they are now able to continue to export grain, which is critical to their economy.

So there are going to be battlefield developments back and forth, where you see each side gaining or losing territory. But when you look at the ultimate stakes of this war, it’s quite clear that Ukraine is going to exit this war independent, strong, with an improved economy, and looking west when what Russia wanted at the outset was not just a Ukraine that was looking east but Ukraine that was actually part of Russia."

Boy this sounds familiar...because some on this thread have been saying it all along.

And as to the statement that has some people running around like the panicky idiot in a bad plane crash movie:

"QUESTION: As long as it takes?

MR MILLER: As long as it takes. That does not mean that we are going to continue to support them at the same level of military funding that we did in 2022 and 2023. We don’t think that should be necessary because the goal is to ultimately transition Ukraine – to use the language that you repeated back – to stand on its own feet and to help Ukraine build its own industrial base and its own military industrial base so it can both finance and build and acquire munitions on its own. But we are not there yet, and that is why it is so critical that Congress pass the supplemental funding bill, because we are not yet at the point where Ukraine can defend itself just based on its own. And it’s why that it continues to be important for Congress to support Ukraine and continues to be important for our European allies and others throughout the world to support Ukraine."

From a State Dept talking head no less.

Oh, ya that totally says that "Ukraine is totally cut off and will have to build its own tanks from here on out."  You know we should totally freak out now and point to every Russian leg twitch as a major victory, while screaming "Ukraine is doomed!!" From the heights of the thread.

So "yes" I am saying the US will backstop a Ukrainian MIC as it plans for a transition away from tactical handouts to long term strategic sustainment...just like they did in South Korea.  But hey you wanna be "soundbite panic guy" on the thread, go right ahead.  

 

[Yet]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Well, I don’t know, in my opinion this is now a new trend in Europe - to elect pro-Russian dudes into your government.

Perhaps the reason is that Europeans are beginning to doubt the strength of the United States and are betting on Russia?

I agree with @Tux, 

in addition: the Western leaders or nationalist that in the past spoke positive of Putin dont 'like him' or 'his Russia'. they envy !parts! of his leadership style or policy. They like his strong leadership or his nationalism, or his mediaouting barechest on a horse, or his 'fck the rest i do as i want- mentality'. 

That doesnt mean they love or support him, RU, or the war.

Also the ones that ever said positives about Putins RU, often now sing a different tone.

Ps. This goes for quite a few Euroos (Meloni, deWinter, Wilders, LePen), I am not so much into Trump, but as much as i see/read I assume this also goes for him.