Beleg85

Hmm interesting- to my knowledge this unit along with other smaller "legions" was to be used for special operations, sabotage and strategic missions, at least half a year ago it was strongly underlined by its members. Although detachments did participated in several ground assaults from that time inlcuding Zaporizhia. On lighter note:

Are they really for Gaza? There was and article in Haaretz last month that claimed ammo was chiefly to replenish stocks that are their Iron Rations in case of bigger war with Hezbollach. They have real strategic problem there, being stretched on ropes by Iran both in South and North. Hell, even Houthis are flying missiles at them. A thread from soldier fighting in battalion Aidar, nothing particulary new but worth to autotranslate to meet view from the trenches.

M777's were badly beaten up already during Lysychansk battles. Wolski counted long time ago something like 1/3 of initial batch as dysfunctional in this or other way (mostly destroyed or in long repairs), now it stands at Oryx at 77 guns as of September; unofficially, amount is higher and there were additional transports from Uncle Sam in this regard. The former source also admitted "from internal rumours" (he usually has good sources here) that most Krabs and large part of fleet of M109 are now damaged or destroyed. Particulary M109 had bad luck lately; several videos of them being hit with Lancets resurfaced in last week alone. But the real problem is again ammo shortages. For example last clip of Ukrainian position being overrun and defenders executed by muscovites was reportedly, according to commander of that area, caused by inability of local artillery to respond. Drones saw Russians at their staging area, but big guns are only allowed to shoot until attack tmaterialize (note, this is not necessarly situation along whole frontline). Despite this, position was retaken and assaulters reportedly "dealt with". I guess they didn't end in prisoner exchange fund...another interesting feature of drones, btw. - ability to livestream and record enemy's (or own) warcrimes.

Why "strangely" silent? I alone twice descibed the situation in more detail, page 3050 if you missed it and several pages before. I just came back from mountains mate and it's monday; we have RL too. And now 8-page backlog. They are for pay-offs of sort but (as they claim) together with unions from several other states are ruined by unfair competition by Ukrainian transport companies. They demand bringing back the previous quotas on transport, moratory on which was extended lately by EU Comission and stop to corruption practices along the border, like (they claim) unfair e-registration system on other side and using aid/military channels to transport private business from and to UA. A complicated business matter, most people here strongly condemn form of protest (curiously, far-right ONR send demand to stop it) but we are in a power limbo for a week, don't have functional government that would take decisions of such weight, up to circa 11th December, when new should be sworn in. Today is some meeting in Brussels in that matter so perhaps some decisions to alleviate situation will be made. But yeah, I hope new gevernment will soon scrutinize connections of several members of far right Confederacy more closely now. Postulates are partly fair and movement seems grassroot and multi-national, but form and timing for interregnum period here is perfect from Moscow point of view. Quite interesting article regarding Russian FPV drone production capacities, from one opposition outlet: https://www-agents-media.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

Another recording of Muscovite warcrime surfaced: Russian assaulters shot surrendering Ukrainian soldiers:

Well, yeah but all those above do not necessarly are being universally cherished as geniuses. I think one of sources of Kissinger influence is he was rare example of actual university intellectual doing career in highest politics. "Professors" (especially of political sciences) at least from times of Plato like to think of themselves as advisors to Very Important People, while in reality they are rarely ever noticed. He represented such impossible figure, so even when Academia hated him, a lot wanted to be in similar position. Not sure if this clip was not posted before...reportedly SU-25 being hit by Lancet. Could be a decoy and date is unknown.

It seems this is exactly scenario Washington tries to avoid in this war, fearing instability in Mordor. Lately it seems campaign started in Russia in presidential "elections", planned on March 2024. Putin is active again with more frequent speeches. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putin-accuses-west-dismember-plunder-russia-ranting-speech-105213082 You can go here to read the transcript: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts Overall nothing new, except tone openly admitting Ukraine is not the state is now official version (how that overlaps with dozens of tsar's own signatures under treatises with UA is anybody's guess). Every country that was once part of USSR should go back to Motherland; supposedly also Baltics; he doesn't even walks on tips around CEE anymore. Russian elections naturally are formality, but nonetheless may influence dynamics on the ground significantly. For some reason Putin always treated them like serious popular plebiscite, which is strange given his goons massively manipulate ballots in the same time.

It seems Vucic will have to make...what, 4th or 5th "most difficult decision in his life" to withdraw troops, counting only last two years. So Marx corrected Hegel that "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce", but what he knew about Balkans?

He is single-handadely going against all wise guys on this board already for third page, let's respect that at least. Meanwile, let's prepare the ceremonial peace pipe as real Indians do...by communally watching dirty movies:

So regarding this situation- never heard collective voice that Ukraine is toxic and we should stop supporting it, unless you mean insufficent level of fight with corruption, which is unfortunatelly constant and pissing off many new companies from EU, not accustomed to this way of doing business (at this point, it's Number 1 blocker for more integration with West, more so than Russian danger). PL is not blocking anybody, too; small desperate group of workers do, like often happen within European Union when their interests are treatened; there are also Slovakians, Hungarians, one Czech company and anybody from this business who looses. Note they are also blocking our exports to UA and provide massive trade losses on our end, too. Nothing new in European Union.* Add largest interregnum we had in last 8 years (this timing could actually point toward some Russian inspiration, they caught us pants down). Matters should be resolved by early January, hopefully when new government take reigns more firmly, and negotiation and conflict resolving teams are working there already. Even Slovakia is as always on the fence between pro or anti Ukraine, despite their new president; they too already donated most of their military hardware anyway. *This aricle of one of Ukrainian economical analysts is rather well balanced regarding this kind of issues, worth to read it for you perhaps. These things do and will happen in EU; it's giant, unified market where various groups are constantly fighting for their interests: https://espreso.tv/koli-pro-koruptsiyu-movchat-tse-ne-oznachae-shcho-ii-nema

Sure, but the crucial issue here may be actual benefit for middle and low-level aparatchiks who organize trips. In Belarus they earn a lot of money on it, on average 5k$ for person probably already exceeding hundred million of dollars left in various pockets. Money may not be primary factor for Russian officials/businessmen in Petersburg or Moscow who would organize such channels, as they are relatively better off than both Belarussians or even rest of Russians. counting middle-men, 500 or 1k $ in single pocket for migrant is not that massive amount of cash, considering challanges of making this work: tickets, accomodation, fixers on both sides of border, equipment etc. It all costs. So now we will observe probably levee en masse with green light from Kremlin rather than centrally coordinated half-military action like we witnessed on our and Baltic borders. If it will stick, Putin may be more interested in this kind of business. But overal, I am surprised that Kremlin did not try it on Finland before in larger scale. On light side, if they really consider participation in organized trafficking as source of income even in petersburg/Moscow, it may be indicator that lower workers of regime are in true financial troubles.

If they would try to mobilize them, their sources would soon collapse; trafficking channels in Middle East react immediatelly to every change in the matrix. Forced mobilization may be limited to long-time workers from Central Asia in Russia, not people who can afford to pay expensive all-inclusive trips with bikes. And they do this occassionally, usually on individual-unit basis. Just from stories of several volunteers (all from more commando-like units) aggresive patroling itself may change its meaning during course of this war, too. Drones, mines, snipers, even tanks hunting for single soldiers are regular feature here. So-so possible across porous northern border and forested regions, on the verge of unsustainability in Zaporizhia/Donietsk.

Yes, but over time you lose soldiers that may be difficult to relace in the long run. So tip for that; it seems a lot depend on individual commanders of brigades or even battalions and may be difficult to implement centrally, on the scale of entire front. Finland closes last border with Russia to pedestrians for two weeks (cargo can still go through... really hope not many people will die in those lorries, soon). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67555626 Very interesting if Kremlin will push for same scale of organized hybrid warfare as Lukashenka, or it will be just temporary attempt to search for weak spots/apply political pressure. Judging by TG trafficking rooms, migrants are delighted by Russian hospitallity and "all inclusive" trip to the north. There are professional observers of this market here who alarm numbers of participants in these chats grew 10-15 times in just over a month. Delay between first surge of interest and people actually crossing the border is usually one-three weeks, depending on reactions of attacked state. They may also judge it is not worth it, but it seems Putin wants to at least spoil the Christmas in the far north.

Regarding Dnieper bridghead

Yes, and second option is very concerning and more likely. I would truly prefer US integration model ruling in Europe, but first "the Core" would need to be clearly defined that everyone is happy about. In pre-1914 still Christian* world it was relatively easy, now it is much less; and we can't just social-engineer artificial ideas into brains of billions of people, expecting them to follow. It's not how it works. *Understood not as religion itself but as system of obvious, civilizational associations.

Yout think? Doesn't look so, walk is too straight and properly grounded. I am sure if I would sit in Ukrainian trench and such zombie would start walking on my position not reacting to bullets, I'd consider leaving the post. Btw. it is very curious how usage of various magical substances other than vodka is widespread in muscovite army now. It was really bad during previous winter.

True to a point, but we are talking about scale and scope of migation that is unprecedented in last generations and only growing stronger. Also Scotts, Germans, Normans and so on were all coming from roughly similar cultural millieu, based on latin concepts/religion/civitas/humanism whatever this thing "European culture" is. To think that people from Africa, Middle East and other completelly different civilizational models will simply integrate- cause we are so awsome, right?- is rather risky assumption. Cultures exists objecively, like it or not; and while most of us can transcend them individually (under right circumstances), it is in our best interest to be more prudent about limits of our integrations, when millions of people are coming to Europe yearly. And it's just a start; climate migrations are ahead of us. Add "D Weapon", fully utilized already by Lukashenka and soon by Russians in Finland. Various autocrats, non-state actors and rogue states know perfectly well where our Achilles heel lies. Also he didn't mean (I hope at least) nationalism- it's one of great problems with curent western debate, mixing nationalism with nationhood- even smart guys like Tim Snyder don't get it, overusing former label to a point when even French Revolution becomes "peak nationalism". USA is truly different ballpark and integation model, it's political nation focused on progressive Enlightment ideas and born on "open" borders. A different polity than old, closed and tired European nation-states. But yeah, a complex topic to be sure.

It depends what is strategic goal here. If they want to grind trained and relatively well-equipped Ukrainian units defending this area in exchange for their own cannon fodder (and not elites) it is actually sound long-term plan. Typically Russian attitude to war, utilizng chief material resource: men. I can bet Bakhmut is considered great success among Russian generalship and they want to reapeat it.

As I understand, it's task is to hoover over one's side of frontline and shoot missiles from a far, much like Attack Helicpoters do? Looks like very expensive kind of UAV and risky to loose it over enemy territory. Hypothermia or Crocodile?

Where are we exactly? In September 1939 [...] So where? Kids? To Germany. To buy time. Now not to kick the dead horse too much, text has several fairly accurate points. Western populations do indeed underestimate Russian danger in various forms and political/military leaders still seriously underappreciate Putin's resolve to break their internaitonal order. Brain washing in Russia is absolutelly terrible, moving forward and very concerning too. Also dangers of Trump presidency looming on horizon are real enough. None of it is particulary new, though. The rest is best met with silence.

Shot of vodka on my cost for a gentleman, for quick reaction.

Very, very criticized text in domestic sphere for lack of fact-checking, dramatic and false analogies and subjective conclusions; he is not a proper analysts with methodology but military commenator for several popular newspapers. Adittionally, suffers greatly from relative lack of Air battles in this war. At least Tom Cooper knew when to turn into ground warfare analysts.;) Not worth to bother really, Fiszer long time ago flew away, like several other public commentators here; some of them with generals' epoulettes. I seriously pass 80% of them at this moment; they a]re only relatively good at their respective narrow specializations and technicalities. Oterwise they are like those Jewish rabbis from jokes: "This or that will happen, unless it will not happen. Who knows?"

It's growing problem there; even humanitarian workers are reportedly now discouraged of closing 30km to the border in the north. One group of volunteer medics claim such groups hunt for light transports, often medical teams transporting casualties (one was wiped out in ambush, nurses and patients alike) directly and even several dozens kms behind the front. Btw. none of fighing sides in this war abide to "don't shoot the medics" rule anymore. Shakeds will likely not cause significant damage at this stage, but larger missiles may pose a problem. To cause larger casualties muscovites would likely need more Iskander-types than they can field now.

Yes, but too many negative answers (or even questions raised) and your society is screwed royally; in existential war like this it means your polity will simply cease to exists, and quite amount of physical people with it. Defeatism is like contagious disease, in both micro and macro scale; it spreads the same way. Now, if we ask the same Russians...it is entirely differnt issue, and very valid indeed. We should ask it continously and strive to answer it every month of this war again. Ok, so in light of last powerful shahed attack, we may probably admitt new phase of winter aerial attacks is open. Do we know what actually Russians targeted? Did not find detailed info on Ukrainian channels.

Since today is 90th anniversary of muscovite-made Holodomor, this poster I happened to discover today is best answer to this question: "Unarmed Ukrainan children/ Armed Ukrainian children" Yes, cheasy; but the problem is even asking this philosophical question assumes having wide options to choose from. *(they could show them in more modern equipment riding Bradley).