Beleg85

Yesterday broad attack was repulsed in Zaporizhia direction- broadly Robotyne area. AFU informed about 18 vehicles destroyed, 70 KIA and 80 wia (probably slightly inflated). Katsaps are trying to probe the line or draw defenders attention.

Comparisions to Red Army in WWII, WWI stormtroopers or even US assaults on Pacific islands seem to be more common in rusnet; they definitelly know it is not reconaisance but full fledged, extremely bloody assaults. Tactics are already there, tried in Severdonetsk, Backhmut etc. Now they know what to expect, improved their coordination with drones (big difference now, compared to year ago), airforce (well, somewhat...) and have access to more precision firing- still worse than AFU, but more of it. Also this time it seems their victory is less lousy and more genuine than Bakhmut, but it may be connected to more effective censorship now. Still it is bloody as hell, but war-interested people there see (or think they see) some light at the end of tunnel. Others, like we wrote page ago, lament amount of casualties. The big questions is how many more of these they can have before they will run out of potential.

They tend to conserve older units for crucial moments, but it is wrong to assume most of Storm-Z are convicts, "500-s" or narcomans. There are plenty of actual volunteers there and nowadays regular units are also thrown into assaults as well, when needed. Generally, Russian army now perform task that were reserved for Wagner or LDPR cannon fodder before. Which is not necessarly good sign. [Ninja'ed by Grigb.]

This particular one is rather for domestic consumption. Though unlike Bakhmut, Avdiivka was indeed a fortified symbol of Ukrainian defiance from 2015 and battle for it can be explained in rational military terms, as theoretical road for Ukrainian advance into Donetsk. Yup. It seems they already started to think about next objectives and some nat telegrams laudate how quickly Ukies left the town this time (they expected Azovstal 2.0). Which is hilarious, but they apparaently have some small morale boost, on the top of giant hangover cause of casualties. All in all, it is at Kremlin where things are decided what to do next, muscovite soldiers have little to tell.

Ok, so Avdiivka is over, even Coke plant was abandoned by 3rd Brigade. Probably a right decision, it was a mighty position but vulnerable to being cut off. Interesting post by one of foreign fighters, even if some numbers seem dubious. Also don't forget to open translation of another post by (supposedly, but be aware it may be psyops) Russian colonel and read his view about their losses, translated by Dmitri. Next object of Russian attack- Robotyne bulge?

Reportedly another field road was cut in the north. Corridor now has ca. 1,5 kms, part of which is contested. On better side, there are some news that Ukrainian artillery started to work more heavily and some reinforcements may counterattack in the north (among others, some subunits of 1st Armoured Brigade are supposedly in vicinity).

Elections soon. And Kremlin has several candidates for "opposition", for whom Navalny's legacy was like a thorn. But it simply could have been not-staged- judging by his health conditions, he could die at any moment. Anyway, there is little difference if they killed him outright or get him there by terrible living conditions. Blame is naturally on Putin. "Putin may murder oppositionsts, but hey- did you guys knew how ingenous are Moscow shopping carts? You put a coin there; amazing, we can learn so much from Russians."

To our knowledge there were not even serious attempts from Kremlin side to turn him into licensed oppositionist that would have its place-naturally limited- on Russian political scene, basically for last decade. Better conditions, temptation for selling others, leaving politics entirely etc. - for sure it was at play. But on default he infuriated Putin and posed too much danger to become a puppet like so many others, even if he finally would break under pressure and agree to cooperate. But yeah, despite doubts as to his standing on Russian nationalism, he was example of civil bravery.

Oil storages in Avdiivka started to burn, ingited by Russian bombs. Soldier from 3rd Assualt wrote fumes are making breathing difficult and are toxic to people posted there. Nonetheless, they are still holding the position and Russians have no entry there- AFU will likely try to use it as main "bolt" for new defensive line once they withdraw soldiers from the south.

Yes, but this was probably just a generally remark in this context; casualty ratios in this war seems to be highly depending on operational and even strategic situation, like ammo supply. Troubling is also state of next Ukrainan defensive line; there were some Ukrainian journalists claiming in recent weeks that it's barely finished, qualitively much worse than main one and they started to reinforce it only lately. After such effort it is unlikely Russians will soon push forward deeply in this place (they would probably prefer to move forces to other areas) but constant pressure due to political will cannot be excluded either. It's not tragedy in strategic sense, but AFU lost valuable defensive position without doubt. At least, unlike Bakhmut, it is clear why they hold to it so dodgedly.

Good summary from Tatariagmi. Judging by various accounts aggregated here and there, it seems to be one of first Russian successes in coordinating airstrikes with infantry assaults. FABs were flying naturally before, in Severdonietsk, Soledar etc. but this time they indeed report of great concentration of hits by this type of weapon, supported by near-constant presence of Russian drones over city. Relatively crude tactics, but effective over time- muscovites definitelly were able to concentrate a lot of resources here.

Ukrainians reportedly left "Zenith" in the south (position as held for 1,5 year), but rather without fight. There are various news as to state of Ukrainian forces in what appears to be a cauldron around southern part of the town being closed fast. Some people seem to be panicking a little bit, but it seems situation is very difficult, with one-two field roads as avenues of escape. They are withdrawing but Russian pressure on the flanks is rising.

Likely this statement is further part of fallout after Carlson interviewed, which received mixed- to say mildly- reception at Kremlin itself. Putin positions himself as sane, responsible leader equal to other two "empires" (USA and China) but clearly above Europeans and others. Very likely it is also concious help for Trump in elections process; Republican media will have something to feed on in discussions about who is in fact pro/anti Russia. "Sea Baby" already has payload of 850kg, and this is enough to bite any ship. http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-USV-Sea-Baby.html Perhaps barrier is seaworthiness of such small drone carrier or some issues with realease mechanisms, but frankly I wonder why we did not see such devices in action yet. Perhaps we will.

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react. http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

Russian propaganda claim it hit with Iskander grouping of soldiers in Selidovo proving grounds several days ago, killing hundreds of soldiers concentrated there for Avdiivka counterattack. https://t.me/voynareal/83768 UAF gave dementi, but some Ukrainian tg's indeed write there are military victims, aside from civilians.

Also, Nammo reportedly started another shift in 155mm production (for Ukraine?). I heard somewhere good opinions about this ammo from one of Krab crews. Good, albeit still far from UA needs. Maybe he was shooting some new patriotic hit, like "7 deaths of Semyon Piegov". On video he seems lying in the ditch at the end. Btw. note there are 3 Russian kamikaze drones during entire video. Did not remember such density during actual assault for long time, if ever. And clip is from August.

True, ditching NATO is way above Trump level of competence, and reshaping it somehow for Pacific interests is impossible. But this time it can indeed be different. Note absence of any kingmakers in his entourage...guys like Bannon or Pompeo were hardly likeable, but they were not dumb and were thinking in terms of raison d'etre, in their own ways. This time it seems he will build on his nucleus family as chief advisors. Something like 2 months ago I happened to watch one political show in Russian TV dedicated solely to Trump's family. On surface they were just telling the story of filthy rich oligarchs familiar to their audience (like Moscow ones, with appropriate scandalous stories about gold and luxury- read: "he is similar to ours"), but the level of attention directed to Donald Jr. was quite outstanding- and this was pure political stuff about his future career, clearly something that makers of this piece were puting hopes for. They treated him as sovereign, concious politician on his own rather than son of his father, and this sentiment (or rather: assessment) seem to be shared by people close to Kremlin. I think Russians know perfectly well where political nerves of future power may be. Trump did burned his fingers on various politcal advisors and occassionally even played Caesar betrayed by people he trusted, so he will now likely be more distrustful to guys from "outer ring", further loosening influence of system on his decisions. This can make a noticable difference for this term compared to previous one, especially in foreign policy.

Just to add to this discussion about Urban combat- troops density vs. environment seemed to be a little unusual in lack of continous lines across the city in 2022. I saw several detailed interviews with guys who survived Mariupol, and basically all underlined that it was more hit-and-run battle, with single squads (not platoons) sometimes covering hundreds of meters if not km of perimeter, with part of their force being rotated at any given time. Sometimes they could even leave urban terrain and hit Russians from the flank (there were videos with effects of such actions) or conduct small mechanzied raids. Battlespace seemed to be rather empty of masses of troops, at least that was their perception, up to the time when they were closed inside Azovstal itself.

Putin is quite conciously presenting vision of Central Europe as "collaborants" (real or imagined) with Hitler, and Poles particulary - absurd which will find mark in some (hopefully limited) circles in the West. Nothing new here, it's consistent in Kremlin narrations across last 15 years and directed as much for domestic as for foreign consumption. Albeit long rant about X-century Ruthenia is funny to look at. Overall, interview was rather boring. Did not expected from Carlson to go full Oriana Fallaci, but even blond Fox bimbos from Ailes era were probably better prepared for interviewing Putin than he is. Putin's views are also getting more dull and predictable with every year, too.

Systems in this context are in fact nets of dependencies... The problems are that replacement is controversial at very least and almost certainly heavily politically motivated. Already during Kharkiv counteroffensive voices could be heard from local Ukrainians that were very critical of Syrksy, his style of command and several close members of his staff. Also Zaluzhny always struck me as simply much more imaginative and independent-minded kind of guy. Despite some criticism, he also served as kind of "lucky mascott" for many on the frontlines and civilians. This may take some toll on morale, in longer run. Well, we will see. Most probably Ukraine can expect spike in mass mobilization soon.

About the tunnel- seem it is admittedly badass operation. Here sum up from one of better analytical accounts, with translated excerpts from Russian TG sources: Awdjijwka - Tunnel. Discovered by RUS about three months ago. Partially flooded and buried, it was cleared by technical and sapper units. At the end, we had to dig through and create an exit - a very narrow one. The technical tunnel has a diameter of about one and a half meters, so you can only move around it by crouching. According to rumors, several RUS have already suffocated in the pipe and one person committed suicide. Up to 300 people could pass through the tunnel at one time. 17/01/2024 Everything is prepared, the walking time of over 2 kilometers, the routes of UKR patrols and their numbers. RUS special units quietly prepared a bridgehead, the so-called safety buffer. The UKR 110th Brigade was surprised and probably did not even know where the RUS had come from and why there were so many of them. Losing position around the restaurant was only a matter of time. "They immediately told me that I could say goodbye to the large backpack. I realized that if I leave my backpack at the unloading point, I will never see it again, there is always something to eat in the backpacks. To whom is war and to whom is mother loved..." 20/01/2024 On that day, UKR learned about the existence of the tunnel, as the Rus had already occupied private houses at the fork of Soborna, Sportivna and Czernyszewska streets Additionally, 2 Battalions were brought from reserve and a new defense line was created. At the same time, a counterattack began, aimed at driving RUS out of this bag. "We moved in a group, the commander stopped us every 20-30 meters. Thank God, the commander encountered the same problems as me - shortness of breath. Otherwise, I would most likely simply not survive and suffocate or have a stroke. It looks like. You walk 20 meters, dragging a bag behind you, which is already half wet with water and therefore twice as heavy. Then they start having slight cramps in their legs and they don't want to walk. Legs wet up to the waist. You touch and walk another twenty meters, you're out of breath again, your legs and spine hurt, you don't want to go, three hundred times in a row anyway. It's about 1,200 meters to the landfall point. 22-23/01/2024 UKR conducts a large counterattack and secures the area of the former restaurant, but they fail to expel RUS from the tunnel area and the streets of the residential district. The houses are defended only by infantry, about 200 RUS soldiers. They are trying to evacuate and deliver ammunition through the now famous tunnel. "At the end of the tunnel, we are waiting for the guide on a string. We waited about an hour for him to come. You can't go out with a machine gun and a backpack. One person helps. You give him a backpack and a machine gun and into the hole vertically up, to a height of two meters, you climb stairs made of boxes on which you can only lean with your leg. You climb out by pulling yourself up on your hands through a narrow circular opening less than 90 cm in diameter. 25/01/2024. For me it's a stalemate. RUS is defending, and UKR cannot counteract much. Elements of the 110th Brigade and tanks of the 116th Zakhar Brigade attempt to push the RUS infantry away from the residential area. On the other hand, in the south, the UKR is engaged in heavy fighting in the area of the station and Dubrava and the Tsarska Ohota complex. If it turns out that 40,000 RUS are waiting for a signal to attack, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the next two weeks.

Sewers were used in Stalingrad, IWW, medieval (in Middle East sometimes quanats were used for this purpose) and antiquity- basically whenever possible to crawl into defended area. During Waraw Uprising it was chief communciation and transportation network, used by thousands of people on fairly regular basis. What is different here is Avdiivka is small town and it is strange they didn't use it before. Or that Ukrainians didn't notice such broad channel going under their nose. Overall, given how static frontlines are, I wouldn't be surprised if we see artificial tunnels soon being sapped even in countryside and possibly revival of this dirty kind of warfare. Enemy drones may make work difficult, though, and definitelly easier to detect larger sappings.

Back to the topic, sorry if it was posted before: Russians claims that videos and photos circulating lately show their soldiers who managed to crawl through the sewer into Avdiivka for several hundred meters. Reportedly 150 men did managed to pass Ukrainian lines this way (nasty job, considering winter) and capture positions "Carska Ochota", "Zenit" and part of woods. This is just southern spur of the town, but now they have at least some urban foothold.

Worth to note however that both beforementioned Greeks lived in relatively axiologically stable, slow-paced polities. The overall tempo of communciation, social and technical changes in globalised world rose up dramatically- changes are defining us not within lifespan, but a decade or even faster. We didn't evolve for that (and by "we" I mean social institutions and ways humans interact)- for example, we still don't know true, long-lasting effects of sexual revolution in the West, especially that it was accompanied by other groundbreaking processes. Just from this sole fact we shouldn't box all grudges of older men as "grey beard talkngs" and automatically use extreme prejudice here. They may be right on many issues, and changes in wider patterns of human behaviour are often real and empirically measured. Btw. most Highlander regiments in XIX cent. were technically queers. A propos nothing, but accidently so fitting potentiall Russian narrative, still smeared in sentiments after Crimea War. https://www.gbnews.com/news/ben-wallace-claims-vladimir-putin-has-gone-full-tonto-claims-uk-can-kick-russias-backside/233373

While approach to Russian propaganda is reasonable, this time I think false flag option is not even remotely plausible. Il-76 is valuable military asset they are short of; if they want to stage an accident in order to hide murdered POW's they have dozens different ways (at this point they don't care about them anyway to even hide such fact). Also military aircraft as potentiall "negative MH370" to show West perfidy is very weak explanation; they would use civilian airliner for it. Thus we are here with 3 plausible causes: 1.Something accidently blow off on the board, regardless if indeed Ukrianian prisoners were there or not. 2. Somebody in Russian air defence made mistake- rather unlikely, it's close to Belgorod airport and big, slow moving transport has very different signal and look than fastmovers that could potentially come from Ukraine. 3. Indeed Ukrainian work, by longe range AA asset or somebody with Manpad. 3rd seems most logical as for now. The question regarding Ukrianian prisoners seems murky now, and if they indeed were there, officials from AFU responsible for mission will likely prefer to keep it quiet, as question of prisoners seems rather touchy in Ukrainian society now. It's also not impossible it has nothing to do with any swap and Russians simply routinely carry dozen or so POW in their planes as hostages; that would fit them frankly. Simple solution to several problems at once.