Beleg85

With all considerations regarding potentiall cease of hostilities, I'd start with a fact that according to Chingisid Kremlin logic, Ukraine currently "occupies" not that small parts of Russia in Kherson oblast including its biggest city. Tsar can naturally unf**k this legal Quasimodo born out of desparation if he wish to, but it would cost him some imperial mojo and may actually be problematic internally, given how mechanics of this system works. This is still very much procedural regime, and stamps, maps, new schoolbooks et allia already show this as part of Great Proud Motherland occupied by Nazi. And that is despite that even some domestic Russian nationalists started to figure it out they were never welcomed there as much as they thought, after clips with vivating crowds we saw at the end of 2022. He is pragmatist, but it doesn't sound like he could let it go easily during potentiall negotiations. A major obstacle. ... too much Hemingway, sire.

Could be...but beyond making looking Scholz uneasy (which indeed can be valid target for muscovite services, given entire "mental chaos" framework they so love) it actually gives great ammo for domestic supporters of sending missles for Ukraine. It literally cuts his arguments, which weren't too strong anyway. So it is a little self-defeating and not very logical on their side to spread this clip. Entire issue has some resemblance to Nord-Stream 2 vibes when comes to "cui bono" line of reasoning...

Yes, entire thing seems plausible. But if Russians really did record it and make it publish, makes little sense; it weakens (if not directly refutes) entire argumentation by current chancellor which was beneficial for Russia. So perhaps somebody even in his own circles is digging under his decisions. Unfortunatelly, unlikely; business disputes with rifles, gang scores or even banal family feuds can occasionally spark similar behaviours there, including responce by local authorities.

This is genuinely great title for one of old John Woo's movies.

So core of the problem is at the same time solution...now that seems ingenious. We apparently should start to shoot those pesky protesting peasants with rubber bullets. Remember dear folks, every one of you has sacred obligation to donate everything to defence of Ukraine ( https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/ ), without even questioning what is happening with it afterwards. Your family business, personal belongings, means of sustaining you and your family, up to the very last Eskimo giving up fishook of his grandfather. Because, our Zeleban "doesn't care" about anything that is happening beyond some trench in this complicated world and he clearly thinks everyone in European Union can start to live on social at any given moment. Right...I think I was very clear when writing about Border Guards with post-Soviet mental at these crossings, not "your nation as a whole", literally in next sentence writing about immense courage of soldiers? But hey, we listen what we want to. And about the issue of border...ok, no bribes are taken, everything is fine. Just what a guy who for last two years chiefly hang around among volunteers travelling between Rzeszów and Donbas on weekly basis can know about, right? Meanwhile, could you tell me, how many hours you or your friends spend waiting in lines for some stamp in papers in on Medyka-Shegine? Hrebenne-Rawa Ruska? Perhaps Korczowa -Krakoviec? How many border guards on both sides you know by personal names? What concrete, actual and effective measures where taken there to uproot institutional corruption there and- much worse- actually fight with prevalent culture of bribes as accepted among wide population in the last 2 years? You know what "border pilot" practice was? How hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian males in conscription age found themselves in EU (not that I would blame them, btw.)? Leave detailed explanations, guy is on another self-contradicting emotional rant to somehow rationalize (= "we are doomed") situation and find guilty. It's small tradition of this board already.

Russians (?) reportedly tapped talk between German officers regarding, among others, quality of Taurus missiles. Interesting details regarding targeting processes and inventive ways to bypass formal declarations for their delivery to UA. English subs.

Ok, so we came from bros weeping about lost friendship to actively helping Russia. Now, that goes fast...remind me, what is mainstay of your SPG? And maybe tell you were entire production of Krab howitzers (circa 38 pieces) that was produced last year for our army somehow didn't make to their destined units? Who provided modified S-200 via Bulgaria that likely are shooting muscovite aircrafts? There are wonders taking place across this border I assure you know very little about. If I would be AFU soldier, I would prefer as a Christmas present big fat modern gun rather than crying about some part for quadrocopter, but you are entitled to your own opinion naturally. Sorry, doesn't seem like Poland "ditched" Ukraine in any way so far: https://www.wnp.pl/przemysl-obronny/polska-ma-ciekawa-bron-dla-ukrainy,801297.html We have business problems that should be solved; what we are seeing now is part of negotiation process. That's all. Btw., talking about volunteers...could you explain me in rational terms why every volunteers from here- be it Pole, Swede, English, Ukrainian from abroad or whoever- must pay a bribe to one of your border guards to actually bring something into UA? You even realise how widespread the practice is and how many people resigned from help cause of it? What is happening with those drones, starlinks and myriad other stuff that they are suddenly found on OLX? Why your journos- despite repeated and grounded reports send to independent media in UA- are so rarely interested in what is happening with this stuff afterwards and actual entire culture of corruption? Why, and I know what I mean, we see the same self-satisfied, fat Soviet faces on the border for the last two years sitting in their posts like bashas, despite numerous assurances that "something will change" from central gov? Well, nothing changed; rockets are failing on their country, but hey, business as usual: "You bring humanitarian help my friend? No, we need to check a lot of procedures, unless you have some present for my wife [literal phrase]...to Donbas you say?To hell with them, 12 hours of waiting extra at the very least unless you change your mind..." This is not incidental but almost obligatory (depending whom you know), I personally know people who actually wait more on your side of the border than blocked by protesters on other- and this is exactly humanitarian help you mentioned. Perhaps UkrainskaPravda should look into that, instead of spreading fakes about zilions of tonns of Russian grain that- suppesedly- out of a sudden landed in PL? If you don't believe me, I can provide you with several accounts of multi-national volunteers. And know several good, first-hand stories from those convoys, including one with former PM of your ally and main supplier, that don't put Ukrianian services in very good light at all. Nope Zeleban...you are sabotaging yourself, at many levels. To be brutally honest, I am in more awe of courage of your soldiers, knowing how corrupted, oligarchic and still mirred in Soviet mentallity state structure they defend (and don't read me wrong, I don't mean your nation). There is no reason why farmer from here, or anywhere else from European Union, should be ruined on the altar of extra revenues for some grain oligarch. Zelensky himself mentioned that only 5% of UA grain goes through that border and your country actually increased its revenues totally...so are really things that bad? Or somebody in Kyiv simply miscalculated it is more profitable to earn some extra by dumping this grain into EU like crazy than keep hot romantic relations with Warsaw. I don't blame them frankly, Bankowa was always very pragmatic when comes to these issues. If they see a looser, they use him; it's part of Soviet diplomatic heritage from very old times that still exists, just as it exists in the military yourself wrote about. Yermak and entire collection of shaddy businessmen that sorrounds him is just example. Btw. if you really want to search for scandals, I would turn more attention who actually grew fat and rich on various businesses that are run in your country during war, what percent of actual new revenues goes into your warchest, what is happening along entire length of these chains (including deep into EU or even in Africa) and what stays on someone's account during these transactions. Grain speculation including. Well yes,you are right, but if indeed bringing parts for them is such a problem, why not pack them together already in EU, put into proper military/humanitarian cargos that go unobstructed, instead of civilan ones? Seems like logistical rather than political challange. For what I read among less-panicking sources, main problem caused by protesters is actually with cars for the army that are travelling on formally civilian carriages, that sometimes are indeed severly delayed. There were also instances where actual smaller military cargos were blocked (like famous boat for AFU), but rarely for longer than several hours. The problems with parts for copters is that once prostesters started to letting cargo with drone parts out, naturally every truck instantly started to carry them, regardless if it was fish, vegetables, cars, yogurths and such... I know a story about a driver with oranges who claimed he carried propulsion for drones size of a fist (couldn't show it, naturally, somewhere in the middle), and even had complete of barely faked documents. Therefore, valid military cargo. Btw. the same surprise goes for European Union policies. Everybody in 2022 expected Ukraine will neeed these land borders as lifelines when Black Sea trade will be cut; that was original reason why any limits were lifted. But Ukraine managed pretty well, sea roads were unblocked and even prosper, and main things that travel through this border is cars, food stuff and myriad other civilian things that have little to do with war. https://newsyou.info/en/2024/02/prodazhi-elitnix-avto-v-ukraїni-byut-rekordi Rant about brothership and all is emotional in nature and have little to do with actual policies of both states; I could respond that brother does not wait to ruin the house he was welcomed in or at least display minimal ability for cooperation, but that is so banal I won't do that. Also remember farmers are just one social group, not representative for entire society. And about tournikets not coming along: these guys saved thousands of your troops and they report continously from frontlines. So far stories of life-saving medical stuff being suppesdly blocked by farmers (on our side, not by corrpution on the other) seems to be incidental. If you have better, undispited sources that are not another PsyOps, please provide. https://www.wmiedzyczasie.org/

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1685570344717832192 Some excerpts from interview with Storm-Z member; autotranslated but you can get vibes: Typically, Zolkin and Karpenko publish videos of prisoners of war talking about the horrors at the front. Here, Karpenko called a prisoner from "Sztorm-Z" [Sztorm-z are mainly prisoners conscripted into the army and sent to the front], who had already been exchanged, and he talked about the horrors in his own country... There is a lot of vulgarity in the direct message, but without it it is impossible to convey the essence of the matter. The prisoners are blamed for surrendering to captivity instead of blowing themselves up "For ****'s sake they had people here working with their tongue - you surrendered to slavery, you didn't blow yourself up. It really moved me. In our hospital, one idiot even attacked us - some ****ing "patriot" started calling us names - why didn't you blow yourself up? < ...> You are guided by the visual assessment of those who are taking you captive. If you see that people are determined not to kill you, you behave the same way. This means that they realize that you do not have to die, nor does anyone else . <...> Some of them are attacking us - why did you surrender? ****s who weren't on the front line. As civilians, they have absolutely no rights. "You're a whore-knows-what. They won't hire you anywhere. Nowhere. You twat, remember this. That's what they tell you to your face here. <...> How they treat us - we are "doubtful", just like in prison are "outcasts are questionable" - the same. They don't let me get the documents to start buying HIV treatment. They want to return to Ukraine. "I want to talk to you. I remember the times when I was there. I was in Kolomyia, in Chernivtsi, in Kiev. I can't say anything bad, not even a little bit. I once fell asleep on a bench in Kiev [before the war]. In the morning, an old lady woke me up, gave me a dumpling [apparently brutal crack in Kremlin propaganda- me]. I'm screaming - Grandma, I'm thirsty. She left, came back and brought me a bottle of wine. This is your Ukraine. In Moscow, they will throw you off the bench, kick you in the head, call the police and tell you what kind of scum is lying here." Tired of what is happening. "The country has changed, there has been [social] decay. People are confused, they have concrete sombreros [Russian slang - a closed, limited mind], everyone is waiting for something, everyone is like dogs. <...> I asked around a bit and it turned out, that no one wants it [in Russia]. All this is driving everyone crazy. No one wants to be part of this 'collider'. ****, it's not worth it. It's really not worth it."

This entire debate about boots on the ground is interesting one...like everyone pretends that Texeira papers didn't mentioned specific numbers of operators already in the country or French gandarmerie (and likely many others) protecting Zelensky. Btw. is it true that Taurus needs trained NATO crew to feed targets to its systems that SCALP does not (sorry if answered, I have week-long lag on the topic)? Jesus, what we are even looking at. Offensive is going pretty well I see.

https://tvn24.pl/biznes/z-kraju/polska-moze-wprowadzic-embargo-na-import-z-rosji-i-bialorusi-premier-donald-tusk-wyjasnia-st7797293 They are analizing such situations and likely will put embargo on these imports. There are also goods imported from Belarus that were never under any sanctions, but I am unceratin if rapeseed is among them (sorry, I am in train now and can't check). I don't get where are you again pointing at by comparing situation of a guy living country at war and the one that is not. So local farmer going broke should actually be indeed happy, cause somebody in Africa is hungry and is in worse situation? Now that is optimistic attitude. Zaleban, don't start another quarrel over nothingburger please. And note I am not their spokesmen too. And here we go again. Should we spend another several pages to prove you that entire world didn't start, out of a sudden, to conspire against Ukraine? Which is it, 3rd or 4th? Last time you projected that Ukraine will surely fall till December, at the start of the year at the most. Now you found yourself a reason for some Dolchstoss theory? This is not small number of people, there is 1,3 mln households in entire country that has something to do with farming. And not, not every protest was anti-Ukrainian, not even majority; but to know this, you would need entire picture of situation, not the one oligarchic media coctail serves you now. In Augustów for example protesters on one of largest meetings put UA banners on display, in many others they underlined constantly they are not political but have no choice due to prices murdering their small business (unlike UA, farming here is not concentrated in giant holdings but chiefly small or middle business; average farmer cannot simply walk into PM office like mr. Kosjuk or mr. Verevsky). There were places where Russian stooges were kicked off, in others they were not. Public opinion is very divided over this issue (note: Russia loves this, not only external but also internal divisions); form of protests is usually condemned but not the essence- this problem of unfair prices on food products needs to be resolved sooner or later anyway. Fo new government, who has much more important things on its head (they try to fix rule of law issues left by predecessors) it is hot potato, but one you cannot simply throw back. Also no vital military or humanitarian help was blocked and decision to turn main border crossings legally under critical infastructure was actually rather bold one on Tusk' side. You probably don't realise, but in most places farmers are prostesting chiefly against Green Deal like everywhere in Union, with entire Ukrainian issue in the background. It all depends where you look at; note they also block not only Polish export at the borders, but also internal ways of communcation, occassionally city centers and such, which has nothing to do with Ukraine. Border is only part of the much larger problem. So no, heavens out of a sudden didn't fall on Ukraine's heads. It's normal neigbour issue taking place in very bad time for you; we had dozens of such in last decade only (to put "train wars" over some tariffs that just broke before the war as example; it was still linging in first months), and society is firmly anti-Russian and mostly pro-Ukrainian still. But that doesn't mean they like to get treated like economical loosers by- always extremely pragmatic when comes to economy- Kyiv's ruling circles, and that seems to be indeed prevalent perception now. Artificial hysterias are not helpful in building solutions.

Yes, it is part of media campaign many Ukrainian media outlets started circa 2-3 weeks ago, out of a sudden (not without a cause; it's not only about country being in war, many of them belong to the same grain oligarchs who earn a lot on unrestricted access to EU markets). That being said, there are likely some Russian products imported here, but probably not directly- i.e. in the same way grain and oil are circling on wide global markets through middle-men in Kazakhstan, Turkey etc. (sometimes these chains have dozens of links). It is effectivelly very difficult to control flow of such goods in global economy, casus of Latvia is good example here- even them couldn't avoid Russian grain on their market. This article in UP did seem moved some strings though- people here don't like to think they have anything to do with Russian goods and it is likely more care will now be put to these chains. Perhaps companies who sell such stuff can even soon be taxed extra or put under special attention of financial controll. Overall, we are witnessing the same painfull and ugly bargaining process I wrote several times about. Yermak believed that he can levarage new PL government much better than previous one to pacify (how?) farmers, but their situation became so dire that even Brussels-connected Tusk cannot ignore their pleas anymore. So Kyiv tries way of vox populi now, directed toward domestic and international public, which has additional benefit of grounding negative societal emotions into PL grain issue instead of situation at the front. Articles full of fakes published by previously solid media, armies of bots (hard to tell which them are Russian accounts and which genuinely Ukrainian), some theatrical displays by politicians- all is at play right now. Next stage in this small escalation ladder will likely be ban of PL goods by Kyiv, if there will be no settelment reached. Naturally Russians stooges feast on it on both sides, despite very clear messages- in almost every sentence expressed by gov officials here and validate by all other international actions- that this is only about this business issues and country stance regarding Russian invasion did not changed. It is structural problem, always has been frankly, and needs complex solutions. But before that happens, we will see a lot of ugly stuff and histerias rolling over this issue. So be prepared in advance and don't get baitedby leads only.

Probably NASAMS launcher hit by Russian fire. Explosions after strike point it to be real this time.

Not very heartwarming assesment of state of defence lines behind Acdiivka, in village of Lastochkine. Basically it crosscover with what I heard from volunteers who travelled extensively to the East with humanitarian help. While Ukrainian soldiers can dug up fast and usually hold lines dodgedly, next lines of defences behind current frontlines are very often prepared ad hoc, in simple manner or worse- non-existent. I don't know why, but UA command seems to often count on most optimistic turn of events or leave decisions to fortify ad infinitum.

Muscovites are also pushing in Robotyne, splitting village in half. It is second or third time they did it in last weeks, every time they were successfully counterattacked.

How many AFU has? From what I read in last months on UA military channels, they have serious shortage in this type of equipment.

Probably first(?) Abrams lost by AFU recorded. Not good, this is M1150 which is very rare.

Meanwhile, amid protests, military equipment moves freely to and from Ukraine as it constantly did from the start of the war. Despite various colliding interests, theatrics for camera, housewives histerias and propaganda of dependant media outlets no vital military shipment was blocked. Dogs bark, caravan goes forward. MIG29's are apparently (still) going to Ukraine. Btw. there are constant appeals not to record movements of troops and military vehicles; somebody may have problems cause of this clip that is now widely shared in Rusnet. Several weeks ago we also had another wave of arrests of people who registered shipments and tried to install cameras on roads.

Interesting news from long-forgotten front. Highest Council in Transinistria aims to appeal to Putin to accept their country as part of Russia. https://www-infotag-md.translate.goog/rebellion/314032/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp It's part of some internal political dynamics and relations with Moldova, but perhaps worth to keep an eye on this.

"Pietia" Panasiuk was just media stooge, he was never a farmer and only lately joined protests; he is walking a joke in PL net cause he openly supports Russia, while smarter muscovite assets stops at feeding anti-Ukrainians sentiments and dwell on historical memory of UPA genocide. Like I wrote, such lizards crawled out of stones they were hiding -channels for Antivaxes, Flat-eartheners and God ones what else. Their numbers are small, not more than low thousands, but learned how to be visible. They are usually so nuts I personally find them harmless, if not damaging Russian efforts; real problem is they are cover for real network of spies and influencers. Sometimes they manage go to the leads in newspapers and have their day, like yesterday.

Now that is news, thanks Grigb for your translations. Suicide is one form form of expression when realization comes as to the real value of русский мир. Murz was kind of bloody idealist, I am curious how many similar crazy behaviours we can expect from other Russian nationalists when reality come to them. They will keep fighting and deluding themselves, beacuse otherwise their worldview would literally explode. Also from my observations of his activity, his posts were usually 80% about conditions in which former LDPR and various PMC companies from his sector fight, not necessarly entire Russian army as such. In fact he often expressed he know little of other fronts, but it was long time ago since I reguralrly read all his posts (early phase of war), so perhaps things changed from that time. Anyway, it seems that despite nominal inclusion of LDPR and partition of Wagner and other PMC into one regular force, conditions and inter-services bahaviour changed little. "Grisnakh more important than Ugluk, Ugluk do what he says or pay with his life".

Which would be even more ironic, since Orthodox church forbids cremation. They didn't even informed family what is happening with remains, and this older woman is already being ping-ponged between various facilities where nobody knows anything, over hundreds of kms of Syberian landscape in winter. This is quite symbolic and likely intended. If I'd be greporter writing a book about modern Russia, it would start with this scene...

Menawhile, value of human remains in "conservative and unspoilled" Russia... Curiously, "weeping mother" figure is one few strong archetypes in Russian culture that even tough despotic Tsars usually prefered to not engage against.

Another episode of grain wars. Blocking military transport is beyond their abilities (they did tried twice but were pushed away by police), but they indeed blockade today entries and choke points in and outside the country, be it Ukrainian or Polish transport. They get wrecked by unfair competition very seriously in last year, some of them grew really desparate so protests are accordingly much more fierce. It's real issue and emotions (and propaganda efforts) on both Ukrainian and farmer' side are raging high. This time though some pro-Russian onuce (our name for Russian Vth column) are noticeably more visible and not even hiding. In some protests they are not welcomed, in others they are the forefront- on one border crossing they managed to pass the cordon and spill corn from several wagons, while singing national antheim... They dwell on farmers' resentments like bacteria on spoiled bread.

These are sensible theories, however it is dubious if even Russian generals at this point of campaign would be so reckless to believe they can fire out some big encirclements now. Probably even Putin, as much as indolent militarly he is, get that. They of course can dream about pincers closing on Konstantinovka, something like this: But making this happen is dreampipe, unless AFU really run dry totally out of shells. My explanation would be Ukrainians kept light forces in Avdiivka simply cause of potent fortifications that multiplied their value- there was no need to put more mechanized units in forming cauldron. There were some tank reinforcements stationed near by from strategic reserve, btw. but they decided to use 3rd Brigade on mostly light vehicles to secure corridor. Makes sense.

Usually they start to fall when somebody in AFU command takes risk of bringing Western AA launcher closer to frontlines for a few hours/days. It is Russian roulette on Ukrainian side too, though; I think in final days of Bakhmut battle Russians also started loosing planes out of a sudden, so perhaps it's tactics to scare off further advances or muscovite pilots simply overestimating their red margin of error. Perhaps Avdiivka bulge was too risky to put such priceless platform there, and now frontline flattened a little (on other side, ground given up in Avdiivka seems too small to make significant distance).