FancyCat

it's a well worth read. Astounding, I mean I knew the Russians had sent units to Kiev to decapitate the government (a la Afghanistan anyone?) but to hear it described as gunfire being heard, and his wife and kids right beside him, Christ, very brave for him not to flee to Poland or even to a bunker in I suppose in Lviv. The article states many officials and officers fled. Zelensky did not threaten for their return or give them a ultimatum, he let them secure their families and then asked them to come back, and most did. Very interesting, and how fortunate Ukraine has Poland and Moldova and Romania to safeguard her people while Ukraine fights.

There is a lot of reasons to show that Russia is actually fighting against NATO. One, gives Putin a escape for why the Russian military is getting trashed vs inferior Ukraine. Two, when Russia gets defeated, the defeat will go down easier than Russians realizing their former imperial subject is a fighter in their own right. That is why it's important for Ukraine to take the lead in peace talks, and for NATO to refrain from great power negotiations that may or may not sacrifice Ukraine's agency as the U.S and Russia hash it out with Ukraine on a map. It may be easier for Russians to accept being defeated by NATO than Ukraine, and certainly that would mean more likelihood Putin keeps his head. Something else to add, as long as Russia has nukes, external overthrow cannot occur, only internally can the Russian state be changed. A former imperial subject dictating peace terms is a major humiliation vs a great power clash. Putin will seek to expand conflict to NATO more overtly, if nothing else than to force a great power peace conference where Ukraine is not the one sitting at the other end of the very long table. In that sense, the restrain shown by Biden and NATO is well suited for opposing Putin.

China was probably content to let Ukraine get eaten up, assuming like the West and Russians themselves were correct in Russia being stronger than they really are, and then have a strong ally to further confront and divide the West, instead Putin has ****ed it all up so badly NATO suddenly looks real good again. Yes, China can gain more influence over Russia, but a Russia relying on financial support from China is not in China's interest, a fellow authoritarian state that can ally with China and oppose Western influence worldwide was the goal, and instead Russia's actions have only strengthened Western resolve and tossed Russia into the garbage bin. The raw resources in Siberia are great and all, but the market China sells to is the West, and their domestic market aint ready to replace that trade, and so like Russia, any goals for opposing Western action involves dividing the West to ensure trade actions and sanctions fail, and all Russia has done is drive Ukraine fully into Europe, driven Europe and the U.S closer, China may punish Russia simply out of anger at the outcome of this.

and a ton of their high-tech workers are fleeing to better pastures.....

Couldn't have the plane gone down into the Dnipro?

Aren't many of the chips in Russian cruise missiles american? Tons of components are European. While probably china can replace most components, it will be expensive and with what money for Russia to pay with? Especially when sanctions raise the cost of business?

So I forgot, and just remembered, historically, Russia has had successful coups/revolutions initialized/joined by conscripted soldiers who usually do it, following military defeats, so for the Kremlin, it's not just unpopularity and civilian protests it's worried about, but a precept with long history. Considering how badly Ukraine is kicking Russia in the teeth, mobilization may be the only route to actually defeating Ukraine even simply forcing Ukraine to a stalemate, but if they miscalculate and suffer military defeats, certainly Putin's head is on the chopping block moreso than this current "special operation". There's a pretty good chance mobilization never occurs, that this is all they have. (What a miscalculation so far...) I suppose Ukraine will try and hold what they can while prepping a counter offensive that it will unleash at the right moment, I hope the front can hold until then.

VDV gets better training/perks no? Could explain why they get briefings, they do the more "risky" missions.

Neptune antiship missiles exist, it would be a suicide run, wouldn't it?

So about Transnistria, let's assume Putin has asked and gotten them to militarily pursue objectives. Would it be expansion of it's territory into Moldovan controlled regions? Expansion into Ukraine? Assume a defensive position with intent to tie down further Ukrainian forces? Sortie into Odessa?

Good timing on airbursts, Trent Telenko had a twitter thread on it, where he thinks Russia does not have airburst shells. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517959072791805953.html

Aside from destroying strategic targets, like the Belgorod heli attack, Russia will have to deploy or beef up their air defense to counter Ukraine. This attack was in a different region than Belgorod so Russia will have to maintain or shift units accordingly or risk further PR damage (and etc). S-400? Wonder what's going on with them.

Looks like it wasn't the main base but a fuel, storage site south of the oil refinery. Something to keep in mind, aside from fuel needed for the military, as we saw with the earlier fuel depot attack, it spurs civilian anxiety about shortages. So far, Ukraine has done admirably, (assuming it is Ukraine) with these targeted, infrequent attacks, spaced out enough to let Russians feel better over the prior attack, then get a nice surprise waking up. Fuel depots probably have lower amounts of people at risk vs military bases and they do burn very well. Anyone in the region will see the smoke.

Oh how satellite widespread deployment changes the world....where once we were left to rely on governments who were privy to information like this, now anyone can see this, yes it's a NASA satellite but anyone can see the data it spits out.

Something to consider, while we understand Russia using attacks on their soil and mobilizing, something else to consider is how much the propaganda is making it seem Ukraine is on the ropes, so a attack on a tank depot and a oil depot deep inside Russia is a indication the war is not going well, so maybe Russia wants to make it seem like a accident? Things like understating Russian casualties, would fall within that vein as well. It's interesting, for all the talk of defeating Nazis, Russia seems intent on keeping the war away from normal Russians as a legit war, with deaths spiralling high, attacks on home soil. You would think Russia would want to tout this as a reason for mobilization but with all the lies about how Ukraine is on the ropes, I suppose they can't easily back out of the falsehoods. Or maybe its too early to say, and the attack response is still developing.

Well, well a fuel dump and a arsenal? Very good for Ukraine. Wonder how the Russians feel about this strike deeper than last time. If it is Ukraine, it's notable how they are reaching deeper into Russia.

According to FT, Putin is committed to taking more territory.

So how is Russia supposed to reinforce and supply their forces in Syria? Thru Iran i suppose, except if I were Iran, I would ask them maybe you should sign the new Nuclear Treaty allowing Iran to trade again....

Ukraine is expanding their red lines for peace talks, while obviously Russia has several factors in deciding not to finish off the Mariupol resistance, it's notable that Ukraine is now expanding their red lines to include if the fake referendums are held. Definitely Ukrainian confidence is increasing diplomatically. I hope in a month Kherson will be liberated and the idea of a Kherson people's republic is dead where it belongs.

I keep going back to the information that Russia keeps a huge intelligence focus and desk space for the west, for China, for Europe, but for Ukraine, nada, not even after getting stopped by Ukrainian resistance in 2014. SVR runs foreign intelligence operations, FSB was assigned Ukraine, despite being a domestic intelligence agency. (Apparently CIS countries are FSB domain thru a agreement between SVR and FSB) I wonder how misinterpreted the rest of the information on CIS is in FSB. You probably saw this article on how Russian surveys of Ukraine prior to the war likely led them to some wrong conclusions. Surveys are well and good and all but war has a habit of being a destabilizing activity that changes perception hugely. That Russia somehow felt this wasn't war and that a survey should convey Ukrainians attitude to war is insane. I would go further and suggest that the major most single factor in Russia losing this war was their outlook on Ukraine and planning perception, as much as Russia has ****ed up, it is very clear that their planning was based on a long list of falseness about Ukraine, that say if we looked at Russian war plans for something like the seizure of the Baltics, Russia vs NATO would be much different. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/

I feel that in the case of U.S officials, the U.S wants to warn the Russians against any attacks while they are in the city, lest they accidentally kill them and force the U.S to up the ante in response.

Isn’t it still muddy? Don’t the Russians still have a lack of infantry? Admittedly, this is expensive losses for Russia, but unless Russia goes purely defensive, they don’t seem to have a lot of options to inflict damage on Ukraine to spoil their defense than these pushes. I suppose Russia could leverage their artillery, go defensive and let Ukraine attack, except unless Ukraine attacks, the only thing I can think of is Russia does not have enough artillery rounds, and a lack of intel enough to use what ammo is remaining to simply bomb everything in front of them. I mean I think the Russians are going to pursue offensive action, but I’m struggling to find a reason against them not going to the defensive, and focus on punishing Ukraine for any offensive moves, and use their artillery to disrupt Ukrainian buildup. Is this considered normal probing actions not indicative of a greater offensive? Am I missing something?

I recall a long while ago a bunch of separatist commanders dying. How long before Igor gets the same treatment for being too outspoken?

Making fun of the fact Russian officers treat their soldiers like crap, give them no context to their orders, and just generally lead them into slaughter over and over again.