NamEndedAllen

You know programming excellent pathfinding is a nontrivial simulation challenge. The Player wants to get both safely and efficiently from Point A to his goal, wherever that might be. But quite often in simulations and gaming much can go awry. At each waypoint, you can suddenly find yourself heading out of cover, into terrible terrain, or taking an impossibly long path that renders the goal moot. And with several waypoints set, the possibilities for bad outcomes increases as the waypoints go by. And that’s not to mention the abrupt fail even if things go as planned at this or the next waypoint. The opponents may have foreseen your moves, or made their own moves that radically chsnge the battlefield - and you need to change your goal. Or maybe are now a smoking wreck. This is how I think of the predictions about what will happen in Russia in the months and years to come. Each assumption is a waypoint in that game. And each prediction’s goal has too many waypoints along the way. Lots of chances for each underlying waypoint assumption not to turn out as needed for reaching the predicted outcome. Shakier and shakier branches! Many a slip ‘twixt lip and cup! The value lies in identifying many scenarios rather than hanging on to a single point prediction of the future. Consider even the outlandish ones, and work out the most critical factors that could affect these scenarios. What are the most powerful variables most affect those factors? And then watch everywhere, in nooks and crannies for indicators of which way the winds are blowing. I think Steve follows this sort of map when he speaks about “reading the tea leaves”.

Strongly agree - we don’t need to put an ALL CAPS warning label on every link in order to protect every sub set of members here! If an article is good enough to link, that should be all that is needed.

I look forward to hearing their testimony at what will be the new Nuremberg Trials for the 21st Century.

Thanks so much for linking this, Oh Grand Dan Of California! Some pithy portraits of the state of affairs and the consequences in the West: “I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security.” AND THIS: “You - the United States - take care of our security. You - China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there. “ THE UNCERTAINTY AND FULCRUMS FOR RUSSIA: “Inside our countries, there is a radical shift, and the radical right is increasing in our democracies, democratically – it is the choice of the people, it is not an imposition from any power. It is the people who go and vote here and there. I am not going to blame anyone, but you have in mind what I am talking about. The radical right is increasing their grasp in European politics.” “our cooperation with the United States and my friend Tony [Anthony] Blinken [US Secretary of State]: we are in a fantastic relationship and cooperating a lot; who knows what will happen two years from now, or even in November? What would have happened if, instead of [Joe] Biden, it would have been [Donald] Trump or someone like him in the White House? What would have been the answer of the United States to the war in Ukraine? What would have been our answer in a different situation? ” BIG PICTURE HEARTS AND MINDS FINALE: “authoritarianism is, unhappily, developing a lot. Not just China, not just Russia. There is an authoritarian trend. Sometimes, they are still wearing the democracy suit, but they are no longer democracies. There are some who are not democracies at all – they do not even take the pity to look like democracies.” “This is a battle that we are not winning because we are not fighting enough. We do not understand that it is a fight. Apart from conquering a space, you have to conquer the minds. The Russians and the Chinese are very good in that. They are industrialising, they have [troll] farms systematically repeating, reaching everybody in the world - once and again, once and again. We do not have a Russia Today or a Sputnik, not even Radio Liberty. But I think that all of you have to do much more on communication.”

Yes- this war has demonstrated how much vaster than anticipated the requirements for artillery rates in particular, and other munitions as well. Perun had a typically in depth video last week that worked through this issue while analyzing Ukraine’s vision for its announced 2023 military requirements. Your point was underscored. He did point out that voters in democracies understandably have not been enthusiastic to increase spending for storing vast quantity of munitions around the world - that may never be needed. The rub is when they are needed! The war also has made glaringly evident the need for well-trained infantry.

And Russia will be joining the company of groups like ‘“Lord’s Resistance Army” and Boko Haram unless it manages some sort of the most successful humble groveling and reform ever witnessed in the history of mammals on Earth. The scenario of a replacement autocrat who is just Putin and the rest but somewhat less warring has been suggested as the best we can really hope for in terms of stability. The crimes against humanity would still be hanging around his and Russia’s neck. I doubt they would graciously embrace it and make humble amends. Nor would Ukraine and it’s close neighbors find any solace or trust in such a “ next dictator up” bench move. Internally? Lots and lots of speculation here and around the world, from breakaway warlordism to utter collapse into complete chaos. And everything in between. We can speculate, but man oh man, this next year is going to be a doozy. Followed by what promises to be the even more bizarre 2024!

And now there is no good way out. Even withdrawing entirely from Ukraine will not erase the massive crimes against humanity we see committed by Russia. Nor will it in any way make Putin’s Russian political life suddenly fantastic. Nor will all the sanctions disappear over night. Nor will it resolve the demands for reparations for the immense destruction wrought in Ukraine. Nor will it instantaneously end the constant over the top domestic media bloodthirsty hype for smashing the so-called “ungrateful little brothers in Russia’s own Ukraine.”

Yes! Plus we always need to keep in mind that Musk is a person with an autism disorder. While high functioning his condition is prone to all sorts of social problems in communication and understanding others. And he is a billionaire. This is somewhat akin in the financial and increasingly in the political world, to the threat of unstable autocrats with nuclear weapons. https://www.newsweek.com/asperger-syndrome-elon-musk-autism-spectrum-disorder-1590043

Good points. I am still seeing the recent Russian overt and covert aggressive actions as the mirror of Ukraine’s successful blowing past apparent Russian red lines. Like Ukraine, Putin pushing past putative red lines before they are unmistakably etched in public increases his options for future attacks. The covert cyber and other attacks on USA and European nations, the overt strikes against Kyiv and important *civilian* infrastructure, all WITHOUT quick punishing NATO responses grants him desperately needed increases in his cramped option space. The former also attempts to continue his campaign against the emotions of the West’s civilian populations and their willingness to support the war.

Agree, Steve. I still don’t see how Russia gets out of this. I read with interest and know how WE think it does (in many minds, it may no longer own the female personal pronoun ever again…no mother treats her children as we now see). I am often reminded of the important warning that, “Past results do not guarantee future returns.” After WWII, the non-Axis nations learned the true extent of the absolute horrors to which the two primary Axis subjected their POWs and others. While few foresee a ginormous WWIII and the final fate of Russia resembling the devastated landscapes of Post War Germany and Japan, both those nations have become valued important participants and Allie’s in the world’s civilized community. What I cannot foresee is how the eyes of at least 50 nations that are backing Ukraine in so many ways EXCEPT for having their own populations ravaged and in most cases their cities as well will be able to stomach the enormity of more and more mass graves, the dead children, the civilians murdered in cold blood, the attempt at genocide by seizing Ukraine’s children and murdering those who do not profess to loyalty to Russia. Much of these crimes against humanity were committed in WWII as well. But that was a different world than today. And the Allied nations are not themselves experiencing by the millions the killing and being killed, and the knowledge that they too committed crimes well beyond the rules of war. How will the instantaneous evidence in color and sound broadcast worldwide via a hugely more influential media of how Russia has raped and butchered Ukraine be emotionally overcome, without that war experience and self knowledge? The nations of Europe and America have embraced human rights and compassion far more widely and formally than before and immediately after WWII. Once the spectacle of a determined attempt at the genocide of one of the largest countries in Europe is seen in its fullness, how will the rest of the citizens not on this forum wish to co-exist with Russia? And that does not even begin to consider what may be a snarling, angry humiliated but intact Russia. In their coming internal agonies, so long as it is an intact sovereign people, will it welcome any embrace by those who have drove it down? Lastly, after WWII we had an instant NEW powerful enemy of democracy - the Soviet Union. That threat, so quickly turning into the threat of nuclear Armageddon without doubt accelerated both the formal and the informal welcome into the community of democratic nations. It unless we manage to turn China into an equally vivid nightmare of the End Of The World, Russia will not have that wind behind its back. Even so, remember too that Japan has had a very difficult time even simply saying, “I’m sorry” to Korea. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe today’s people are quickly distracted by the next iPhone, by the next scandal, by the next celebrity breakup to give a good crap about the enormity of what has happened. Maybe the insulation of the world from the reality within Ukraine will do the trick for Russia, and citizens in most nations will not really care about the future relations with Russia - as we and our circles do. As long as gas prices go back down, and fuel for heating homes and feeding industry is plentiful, let bygones be bygones. But I have a feeling Ukraine’s new voice in the world will not let that happen. They have not only suffered and endured and are overcoming. They have learned a tremendous amount in the course of this war. That includes not only fighting in combat, but for world opinion. And I do believe that voice will ensure that it has a quite large vote in Russia’s future and how the world perceives it.

These attacks can also be seen as the Russian version of Ukraine’s often discussed pushing past red lines. Blowing the Nord line(s) = no big response. Now followed by a wider attack on NATO nations’ infrastructure targets. Russia doesn’t need to fear a NATO nuclear response. It can test how far it can poke which countries in the eye, before seeing a damaging conventional response. Russia knows that agreeing on triggering Article 5 would entail a great deal of political debate first. In a way, the Article 5 threat is similar to Putin’s nuclear war threat. A secondary result is the always active efforts to undermine any and all Western democracies and their citizens’ faith in their own governments. In these incidents, the fallout whatever it may be in the public’s mind comes as winter nears.

“Knock knock knocking on Heaven’s door…’ https://www.bobdylan.com/songs/knockin-heavens-door/

Cooking with gas! Gas central heating! Crank it up! Gas Turbines! We in the USA have been very good for a long time at using tons of energy without too much thought about it efficiency until recently. I think efficiency here has been improving in recent years, with a bunch of tax rebate incentives and regulatory changes. But nothing here or in most places has really changed the huge appetite of modern civilizations for stuff that requires lots of fuels.

Except when you need it (see “Florida Governor DeSantis”

Some context. The USA is already the largest oil producer in the world. Even with compromises to avoid the worst damages that occur. And we cannot keep up with the demand from other countries besides our own. This does not include or reference NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION. USA also Numero Uno. See at bottom. Using up even more of what USA has remaining in the ground plays into OPEC (and Russia?) hands. In grander strategy, USA needs to find multi pronged means to address demand. While still able to be largest energy producer. Top 10 Oil-Producing Countries (barrels per day): Country Monthly Production Reference Month United States 11,567,000 12/2021 Russia 10,503,000 11/2021 Saudi Arabia 10,225,000 02/2022 Canada 4,656,000 11/2021 Iraq 4,260,000 02/2022 China 3,969,000 11/2021 United Arab Emirates 2,954,000 02/2022 Brazil 2,852,000 11/2021 Kuwait 2,610,000 02/2022 Iran 2,546,000 02/2022 Top 10 Countries that Produce the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020): United States — 914.6 billion Russia — 638.5 billion Iran — 250.8 billion China — 194 billion Qatar — 171.3 billion Canada — 165.2 billion Australia — 142.5 billion Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion Norway — 111.5 billion Algeria — 81.5 billion Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020): United States — 832 billion Russia — 411.1 billion China — 330.6 billion Iran — 233.1 billion Canada — 112.6 billion Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion Japan — 104.4 billion Germany — 86.5 billion Mexico — 86.3 billion

Terrible thing to even think to suggest, but maybe possibly we back in the cheap seats might have to actually suffer a bit too. And pay higher prices. War is expensive in many ways. Ukraine is paying in lives and entire cities.

Snyder is a smart guy. And this is certainly a well written projection combining several of the many scenarios explored in these 1,500+ pages. But he makes a ton of assumptions, “if this, then that…and if that, then this other, and if that other, then this…” becomes a gradual relatively smooth winding up of the war. Nice! But nations’ crises also result in sudden, abrupt radical change. In evolution this is called “punctuated equilibrium.” In the moment of the crisis, it is certainly difficult to foresee the ultimate outcome.

This is certainly a more desirable outcome than…nukes. And it is the storyline we tell a lot when needing to replace the previous one, that Putin is too rational to risk blowing up various levels of his own country’s future and the world’s as well. It’s what we think we would do if we ourselves had the choice at the critical moment, in our own Western countries. But it relies entirely on hope as a war strategy. Here in the peanut gallery, we don’t have perfect knowledge of the protections and mindsets involved in protecting Putin. The former KGB guy. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, we now know that just one rational and determined man stopped the besieged depth charged Fox Trot’s Captain from launching his “special weapon” nuclear war head torpedo at the USN, as per his orders. Another ranking officer in the three sub flotilla was also aboard and blocked the captain’s given order at the critical moment. Talked the rattled captain down. And WWIII was averted. One guy. Could have not been there. Boom… Question: do we know whether any of the Russian subs have nuclear-armed cruise, not ballistic missiles that could be used in lieu of a land or air launch?

Putin’s mentality increasingly resembles an eerie channeling of That Adolf. Fantasy offensives with a crumbling army, living in a bunker, genocidal slanders and oversight of many war crimes. Most deeply concerning - it’s a nuclear war bunker.

October 5th Update from ISW Key Takeaways The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone. The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General. Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours. Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City. Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5. Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5. Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians. Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

Good point. Regarding that “warning” though, why not always appending a similar labeling for links to any conservative sites that might also have headlines with political slants. Or maybe better to simply drop the whole political labeling thing and assumptions about tender feelings among the huge population here. Because the emphasis simply underscores the politics, not the information itself.

I wouldn’t worry unless you find yourself beginning to say things at work like, “Fire for effect!”

Perhaps in politics and war not everything is always quite so simple. Trump’s signal of withdrawal and other such past precedents were certainly not universally applauded as wise strategy. But there it was, handed to an incoming President with a clock of a few months ticking away. One should never forget that management focus in any organization, large or small is a scarce resource. Among the various scenarios bandied about, a not unreasonable one is a mixture of a bad hand deprioritized and handed to the quick and dirty “it’s going to be a mess but you guys are stuck with it” C or D or worse team. Because a storm is coming, NATO is in shambles, we have a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands, and an economy that is once again teetering (except for the stock market!). The military is worn by decades in a no-win not a war again nation building futile exercise. And Europe is a greater strategic and national interest than that Graveyard of Empires. So that’s our immediate priority focus overseas. Tough decisions, never guaranteed to be right until the dust settles. Pretty clear the new USA Admin was repairing European relations and sharing intelligence well ahead of the storm of the century in Europe. And it looks as if Afghanistan was viewed as a write off - just as the in the previous Administration. It is an ugly ugly world. We end up grabbing our Bright Moments when and how we can. I must say how good and pleasant it is to see the USA unequivocally backing the good guys.

I doubt China would want to have the diplomatic headache, constant distraction and sheer embarrassment of having to shield a notorious war leader wanted for high profile war crimes trial. Bad for the image, you know.

Technically, NOLA does matter. Because food, music, a big battle there although perhaps getting to be a long time ago. So it is exempt from the East (loser) v West (clearly the winner at the end of the day…ha!) debate. Now we return to our regularly scheduled program.