NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:
My own advice — in the event Putin deploys a small tactical nuclear weapon: Don’t be hasty. Condemn the act in the most serious terms but hold any retaliation long enough to let the world and his fellow Russians absorb what he has done.
This is not the dumbest advice put forward on the question.
3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:another scenario, one that might be described as a slow fading away for the Russian leader. A weakened Putin would cling to power, many more Russians would leave the country, and Russia would for a time simply exist as a dispirited and weak country.
Regardless of what lies ahead for Putin, Russia itself is already well along in fading away. No matter the state of its military, ultimately a nation requires people. Putin is throwing away thousands and thousands of lives of men from youth to um, maturity. AFAIK, even Russia needs both men and women for the esteemed and noble activity of, what term most appropriate here, ah, reproduction!
But wait! Houston, we have a problem: where are the people?
The newborns up to 30 years old are vanishing. The normal age distribution should look more like a pyramid or in the industrialized countries more like a cylinder as birth rates have come closer to population replacement ratios. As the vicissitudes of life occur, the numbers trail off until at the top, say those 90 to 100 years old hardly anyone is left. But Russia? This isnt a cylinder, let alone a pyramid. It’s a Christmas Tree with the big lower branches sawed off! Yah sure, modern industrialized countries have been trimming their reproduction rates, but this picture isn’t just the “normal” trimming. Plus it is quite top heavy. And the youngest tiers have already flattened. Which is either will be expensive or else bring much suffering and grimness. Who will work when the elderly surpass the young?Taking roughly speaking and rounding, 100,000 reproductive age men (and counting!) off the table is yet another display of Putin’s genius.
For comparison, here also is the USA distribution. Not a pyramid,
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2 hours ago, danfrodo said:
Dude, I totally respect you and your posts and we agree on things politically -- we're even in the same lovely state (I'm on the wet side, where are you?). I see that this is bugging you. Does it matter whether I put that or not? I actually think it's kinda funny, but I can see it's having an adverse affect for you.
OK I'll not put it there next time -- but when I link to to that site w/o warning and someone gets mad about it I'll send them to you
. I'll say "Sir, would you like to speak with a manager" 
Anyway, thanks for your posts on the forum, keep 'em comin'.
Right back at you! THIS is how amicably Oregonians settle disagreements!! You are clearly one of the brightest of lights here, and a gentleman to boot. The fact that we agree on about everything has nothing to do with that compliment. NOTHING!
But seriously, thank you for indulging my quirk on this. And sure, send grievously members exposed to headlines at that site to me for ER attention. In my career I had to deal with angry Palestinians, Israelis, Cowboys (the real ones), and worst of all, BUREAUCRATS! The worst.
PS From the Dry, the Wet, the East Coast, New England, the Old West, and now back home in the Wet. A great ride it was!
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41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Some people have ignored this warning and wandered from the path into the dark woods and have seen things they cannot unsee. And then they comment about the content that is NOT what I linked to. So I keep putting this warning.
That must have been about 1,000 pages ago. Everyone has seen the warning many times over, and are capable readers. So, enough already!
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1 hour ago, sross112 said:
In reading the article it says he thinks we should be sending more weapons both sooner and faster. Pretty sure that is what a bunch of us here have been saying since the beginning.
Then goes on to say that he thinks there should be oversight of the money being sent. In the last few days there have been several conversations on here that talked about the pallets of cash to Afghanistan that either disappeared or weren't spent the way they were intended. Overall the gist was those pallets were a waste. Isn't it reasonable to want to make sure that the actual money sent is being used for what it is meant for and trying to keep the graft and corruption to a minimum? Haven't we pointed out how corruption is a rot that will mess up the entire system if let go unchecked?
The way I interpret this is just responsibility and accountability. I don't know why anyone on either side of the political isle wouldn't think that is a good thing. I know as a taxpayer I want my taxes used responsibly by our government and lawmakers. I didn't see anywhere in the article about cutting off support or sending less, just having oversight on the money and how it is used.
Sounds pretty reasonable to me. If it weren't for partisan politics and media spinning it would probably sound pretty reasonable to most people, but this is the world we live in. So I suppose I should get down off my high horse of reasonableness, responsibility and accountability (terms that surely show my antiquated 20th century boomer coerced mentality) and start flinging mud at one side or the other no matter what they say or do.
In a perfect and honest, straightforward political world, I believe you would be 100% correct. And I truly hope you are. Unfortunately, we have learned through bitter experiences time after time that not verifying after trusting is disastrous. MAYBE he is meaning what he is saying, but far too often politicians on all sides wield these fiscal responsibility statements as fig leaf propaganda used only while fighting whatever the other side is doing. So I *hope* this is a rare instance of complete sincerity, but wait for verification after the upcoming elections. Too cynical? Probably. The price of living long enough!
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14 hours ago, Artkin said:
I don't disagree. It's just hugely ironic.
Understood. Just too often leads into the darkness that is gratefully,refreshingly not engulfing this spectacularly superb nexus of well-informed decent people from all over the planet.
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1 hour ago, Artkin said:
Lol wow, Putin's lost it way more than Biden.
Let’s nip in the bud partisan sniping about the President, and be glad we have Administration that has been at least reasonably competent in handling the tightrope of supporting Ukraine and managing relations within NATO in this war. While not making us all into glow in the dark Halloween skeleton decorations lighting up a desolate nuclear winter.
(Although it isn’t over yet, Jack!)
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Recent polling reported in yesterday’s ISR daily summary. Russian population attitude not showing widespread opinions that the regime is in trouble with the pubic. In fact quite the opposite. A data point in the endless speculations that Russia will collapse:
“Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on October 25 showing that the number of Russians desiring change has declined despite recent societal stresses introduced by sanctions, mobilization, and the war in Ukraine.[23] The Levada surveys conducted in late September show that the percentage of Russians who believe that Russia needs decisive, full-scale change
sdecreased from 59 percent in July 2019 to 47 percent in October 2022. The surveys show that the percentage of the Russian public that believes Russia needs only minor changes increased from 31 percent in July 2019 to 36 percent in October 2022 as did the number of Russians who said that Russia needs no change whatsoever, from 8 percent to 13 percent. The Levada surveys show that of those Russians desiring full-scale change, only 11 percent desire a change of government in some fashion. The Levada surveys also show that of those Russians desiring full-scale change, 10 percent desire that the war in Ukraine ends and that Russia begins negotiations with Ukraine. Many changes that Russians wish for are primarily focused on domestic economic issues.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-25 -
3 hours ago, Sojourner said:
More likely because Biden replied, "Thanks for your concern, I have a team of negotiators standing by."
This was brilliant! There should be an award of the day for it!!
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2 hours ago, Canada Guy said:
What are these 'Phillies' and 'Eagles' you speak of ? They appear to be some sort of totem or 'sports' team?
Yes. Most sacred of totems, and based where our Declaration of Independence was signed. Generally regarded as symbolizing all that the USA stands for that is worthy and righteous. But because freedom requires eternal vigilance, they must eternally return each year at the same time in order to defend our highest virtues.
Or they might also be sports teams, yeah.
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:
First hubris and then political and media inertia. A lot of careers and budgets orbited around Afghanistan. One need only look at the CNN roster of on air personnel 50 and up. Almost all got an enormous boost from Afghanistan career-wise at the beginning and then swung back every few years to write a book or do a 'thoughtful piece on why we are/are not winning the war'. That dynamic made ending it political poison...as we saw last year.
Yes, certainly. But I keep thinking about the misplaced “Mission Accomplished” extravaganza propaganda. Afghanistan would have made sense, unlike the bizarre other one. Why the civilian policymakers in DC thought a land war and nation-building in Asia was a supremely great idea…as if, whoever thought of doing THAT before? The buck stops with the guy in the Oval Office chair. Hubris, as in we can do better than the Russians did? Wow…just wow.
I’ll make a wild guess that the USA and Europeans don’t screw this crisis up. And don’t try to “manage” Ukraine after its victory.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
tsk tsk.... CHEESESTEAKS. It isn't a lottery ticket. The other misspellings weren't as important.
44 minutes ago, billbindc said:Opposition was much stronger 8 years ago. What has happened since has been highly effective repression and civic demobilization. I think it's hard to parse why one society kicks back harder and longer...Ukraine being the best example even before this war started...but it's clear that civil capacity is as variable and as important as it is in the military sense. If I had to say, I would argue that while quite shambolic, Russia is still a multiethnic empire based on resource extraction with Russians as a dominant caste therein. That creates political cross currents that undercut forces struggling for representative government against corruption and authoritarianism.
Damn autocorrect/complete!
And the igules or whatever it was at the end was another autocorrect although to what they thought it now is?? The translation of the spoken word “Iggles” is Eagles for non native regional speaker. -
5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
- there was a focus on counting tanks, IFVs, troops, missile batteries, etc. without much regard to qualitative capabilities of each
- vast underestimation of the degree the soldiers manning these systems were proficient in their use
- it was presumed that recent battlefield experiences (Iran-Iraq War for Iraq, 2014/2015 Ukraine and Georgia for Russia) leads to reflection, rethinking, and adjustments even when things go well but especially when they don't. This led experts to wildly overestimate how much recent battlefield experiences helped Iraq and Russia prepare for the next war
- underestimating the degree of stress the forces could take before reaching combat ineffectiveness
This post made me think of something not easily known, so not often spoken of: more Intel reliance on national technical means than on human intelligence. And some of the enumerated issues smack of focusing on what we know, and not on what is missing.
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7 hours ago, sburke said:
man we are in more trouble than I thought if Philly=US....
A man's (city) got to know his limitations..
WHAT? The Liberty Bell!
Signing of the Declaration of Independence!
Independence Hall!Billy Pen’s Statue! No, wait. ROCKY’S Statue!!!
And…CHEESESTAKES, um…STEAKS! Although autocorrect suggestion is kind of interesting!
PS “Iggles” 6-0
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6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Personally, I think the Russians plan on keeping Kherson as a fortified city. I don't think they are going to fully withdraw as they did around Kyiv and Kharkiv City. Putin's got too much riding on this particular city and he probably is thinking "I approved of abandoning Kyiv and Kharkiv, and what good came from that?".
What I predicted long ago, though, is that this plan isn't viable. I don't think Russia's best units or worst ones have shown much interest in dying to defend something. Dying to take something? Yes, but that's not what this is about. Look at eastern Kupyansk and Lyman for recent examples, or for that matter the northern portion of the Kherson bridgehead.
If Putin orders the MoD to hold the city they will of course try to do that, and for a while they probably will do so reasonably effectively. However, at some point the forces in Kherson will see that it's pointless and try to flee even if there are blocking units (and I presume there will be). They will not fight to the last man in the last basement.
Steve
My fear is similar, but darker. IIRC, blasted buildings and rubble make pretty good defensive holds. Better than pristine streets, homes and business districts. And so the Russians make sure that Kherson IS that, and of course blame Ukraine. All ultimately in the service of “if I can’t have it, you can’t either”. When it’s over Putin cares less about casualties than about human rights. He can say, “See? We are smashing the ungrateful Little Brothers just as they deserve.”
I don’t like this scenario! Hoping for a far better outcome, somehow.
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
As the Science Officer Ash once said, "still collating data".
Yikes! Look how THAT turned out!
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6 hours ago, IanL said:
Indeed spot on. However the new way of trying to nation build and create infrastructure had a problem: it turned out we were funding the Taliban's insurgency with some of the cash that was supposed to be building stuff. As a tax payer I'm not find of that outcome either.
Agree with this and the previous comments by my betters here. But what I have never been able to fully grasp is why the USA at the time, after smashing up al Qaeda if not fully, rather well, did not then announce loudly and clearly that “We are leaving now (translated: we saw what just recently happened to Russia when it rather overstayed its welcome). DO NOT frak with us ever again because the next time THE STARK FIST OF REMOVAL will arrive very very quickly and thoroughly.”…and get the heck out.
I mean, we must have learned *something* from Vietnam, followed by Russia’s Afghan Adventure. Fortunately, so far, this feels very different.
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6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
The only two that matter? Sorry, I couldn't resist
Steve
Going…going…GONE! Out of the park!!
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6 hours ago, acrashb said:
People like me did not. I work in tech, and my exposure to Russians - going back to the early '90s - has been people who were educated and urban, which I assumed reflected the general population. I expect that this would be similar for analysts like ISW, and while they have less excuse, this type of exposure would skew the thought process.
This goes beyond sloppy / easy macro quantitative vs. harder-work micro-qualitative and into cultural assumptions. I'm still trying to build a full picture of why (almost) every analyst was wrong.Yeah, that’s an excellent observation. Possibly confirmation bias. It also suggests that the impact that Steve and others point out about the molasses-like drag of culture on learning new behaviors is why sheer knowledge doesn’t correct the many Russian military failures we see. Not because Russians are inherently stupid or intellectually -racially - stunted! Also why the undoubted access to the military training and doctrine materials of the Western/NATO Powers especially regarding lower ranks initiative, the critical importance of NCOs, etc hasn’t altered Russian behavior…Why not even the demonstrated superiority of the West’s training and ethics as well as technology hasn’t affected fundamental change in the Russian military.
Deeply embedded culturally inherited fundamental belief system of what is the “right” way to do things; that is truly resistant to change. Equally, the emotional understanding of what is terribly “wrong” - un-Russian, so to speak. Make no mistake. We all, all nations have our national ethos, and our notions that ours is better than yours. But some are far more hobbling or even toxic than others.
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7 hours ago, panzermartin said:
Last night I dreamt that Putin was assassinated and in the next hour nuclear bombs started to fall all over Europe and I could see the distant flashes in a stormy beach and we were rushing for cover in buildings. And while dreaming, I thought I wanted to post on this forum that someone who argued that we have not that much to fear because of bad russian maintenance of WMD, was deadly wrong.
I need to stop reading this forum everyday and stop drinking beers late at night
Good thing dreams are the brain washing itself of unnecessary crap from previous days (however entertaining) , and not predictive of the future!
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8 hours ago, poesel said:
Do say, how many countries are participating in that 'world series' of yours?
One may only hope that realization may dawn on the veiled minds of those unbelievers, just as the glory and truth of real football may in time be recognized rather than the imposter behavior of banging basketballs around with one’s head and calling it “football”.
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10 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Now if you want to talk cargo cult militaries…and that one cost us a lot more than the investments in the UA.
The cargo cult-ish manifestation if at all in this instance, is related more to the US *policy making*. Recalling examples of nation- & modern military-building in past colonized (or otherwise occupied countries), or fighting wars in other less developed countries, policy makers imitated the approaches that from their far removed perches and vastly different culture…seemed to have worked. The Administrations and sometimes the military believed that if they did these actions, these behaviors, something good would be forthcoming. But those other examples were in vastly different cultures, geography, and histories. Perhaps those were not all that successful in themselves in any long term sense. And of course, it didn’t work.
But honestly, I think we’ve stretched the idea of cargo cult analogies beyond the breaking point. The straight forward descriptions of what actually has happened - as @The_Capt just laid out here, are sufficient. We are in danger of making a Procrustean Bed. Next we’ll start saying our political parties are cargo cults. Oh, wait…
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I agree that Cargo Cult isn't spot on, but in some respects it's pretty close. I think a better analogy is out of science fiction stories about the decline of complex high tech societies that worship/idolize what their predecessors built, but haven't much of a clue how to care and maintain them. As things become harder to fix and impossible to replace, capabilities atrophy and the situation gets progressively worse. This is the premise behind such classics as Ringworld and Foundation, but also evident in lots of other books (books 2 and 3 of the Deathworld trilogy are my favorites!).
The Moskva is a great example of this. Apparently they didn't know how to use their radar or perform damage control. They got hit and sunk because of missing knowledge and properly functioning systems.
Ah, but this is a bad analogy. Nobody has figured out how to fight and win a deep rooted resistance movement embedded in a culture that, by and large, doesn't want any of the benefits that the occupiers have to offer. Nobody, so it's not analogous to this war because much of is going on has been solved for in the past, if not in practice but at least in theory. Cripes, the numbnuts in the Kremlin could just download the US military PDFs on theory, practice, lessons learned, etc. and probably improve their knowledge of how to fight Ukraine by a factor of 10 and take steps to implement things in a logical, prioritized manner that is consistent with Russia's capabilities. Which begs the question... have they ALREADY done that and this is the best they can do? I'm thinking that's more right than wrong. Personally, I think they half assed figuring out what went wrong and are half assing the corrective measures.
This is where the Cargo Cult thing has a bit more legs. The Russians have been obsessed with looking to be a modern military without understanding what makes a military modern. Unlike the Pacific islanders, who had to make do with what they had locally, Russia went to the West and purchased things to look cool for the cameras. Guys running around with NVGs on WW2 era steel helmets and body armor made of fiberglass with tanks produced 40 years ago using tactical doctrine from before NGVs were individualized does not a modern army make!
Steve
Excellent post and points, Steve. Nice to see Foundation and Ringworld namechecked. About Cargo Cults. I did my graduate work on Cargo Cults and their relevance to Contemporary Policy Making. Will add just two comments to the discussion. The indigenous islanders believed the vast amount of cargo arriving was intended for them, and that the gods must be making a mistake, or that the people were not making the proper ceremonies. Watching how the new arrivals behaved must be why the gods were ignoring the locals. In every case I know of, a charismatic person arose who convinced the locals that if they went down to the docks and assumed the appearance and activities of the Japanese or Americans, the gods would realize the cargo wasn’t getting to the “right” people and fix it.
So a necessary part of cargo cults is the emergence of a new charismatic leader whose impact is such that everyone stops doing the necessities - no tilling the fields, no vital daily work. But the other necessity was the overnight transformation of the entire social structure all the way from Big Man down to the “trash man”. When the foreign militaries arrived, EVERYONE became trash men! Each society was utterly demoralized in the face of such wealth. And waste. Which is why so many of the locals dropped everything and followed the new Leader who promised that THEIR ship should now come in.
if Russia really were to become a Cargo Cult, watch for the demoralization of much of the society followed by the emergence of a charismatic leader who rallies the masses to follow his (imaginary) path to wealth and power.
Also note the more general millennial cults, of which cargo was one. A tragic example is the Ghost Dance Society that arose as the Native Americans/Indians were losing everything to the hordes of Horse Soldiers invading from the east. They believed the Ghost Dance etc would make them invulnerable to the bullets of the white soldiers. Of course it didn’t work.
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2 hours ago, sburke said:
so much for Elvis recovery this week - Phillies are going to the series. Seems Steve will have to manage the timeout button for a while longer.
THIS!
YES! My grandparents are smiling from up On High.The Phillies are going to the World Serious.
Signs and portents for the lowest underdog to win. (Trying to make this at least a tiny bit relevant. Working?
https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap/_/gameId/401467588 -
14 hours ago, sburke said:
Jewish space lasers.
Now with Einsteinian Wormholes Option!
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Ahhh! The REAL reason for the invasion emerges. It seriously, the balance sheet at this point, and with what know, still looks quite negative for Russia.