NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/xq-58a-valkyrie-flies-longer-higher-heavier-in-recent-testTo date, the U.S. Air Force is the only known entity to have purchased Valkyries, and has been using a growing fleet of these drones to support various research and development and test and evolution efforts. The most well known of these is Skyborg, Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC) led project centered on the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) driven "computer brain" and other associated technologies that could be integrated into various types of drones with high degrees of autonomy.
As Kratos notes here, the XQ-58A's ability to operate autonomously in a 'radio silent' mode has potential benefits when it comes to penetrating through or at least evading threats. It of course also enables the drone to continue its mission or at least attempt to safely return to base in an environment where the threat of electronic warfare jamming is high, something at the U.S. military, among others, expects to be the case in virtually any future high-end conflict. A swarm of such drones would have the additional benefit of being able to operate a distributed 'mesh' data-sharing network to provide additional resiliency against electronic warfare attacks and to cooperatively act as a team.….
Kratos' press release also noted that this particular test flight was in support of an AFRL effort called Autonomous Collaborative Enabling Technologies (ACET), which "is focused on developing Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACP) such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)." CCA is part of the Air Force's over-arching Next Generation Air Dominance(NGAD) future air combat initiative, and is expected to revolve around multiple tiers of uncrewed platforms with high degrees of autonomy intended to work together on various levels with crewed aircraft to perform a host of different missions, as you can read more about here. NGAD also includes work to develop a stealthy crewed sixth-generation combat jet, as well as advanced sensors, weapons, engines, networking and battle management systems, and more, all of which will form a new air combat 'ecosystem' whole.
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2 hours ago, Artkin said:
It was via memory, it appears I was off by 100 billion. Oops.
I just remember it jumping about 200 billion from where it was: ~650 billion. Reuters says it will be over 800 billion next year.
Most are saying 778 billion for 2022, but many websites are giving different values. This website gives 778 billion for 2020... so not sure. With inflation I would say the numbers are about right.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget
China's buying power is estimated to be much higher than it's value in USD indeed. I wonder how much of an impact their cramped geography has on their GDP.
Perun had an excellent in depth video, posted here not too time ago, with an in-depth analysis of China’s military spending and production…compared to the USA’s. Among many reasons why their budget is “smaller” but is producing vast increases in modern platforms are, just a couple big ones are:
1. Their budget isn’t transparent! Much production and procurement occurs in other parts of their economy, government and industry. Which as you know are strongly intertwined.
2. Their force pay is far far lower. The USA military must compete with private industry for the high skill sets that the modern military incredibly requires. That is money not available for buying ships, subs,planes, and AFVs.
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9 minutes ago, Artkin said:
As DanFrodo already said: Defense spending can be toned down if Russia is less of a problem. They already have 2500 destroyed MBT's alone according to the UA mod, and 1400 on Oryx. That's their primary fighting arm totally gone. Also it's not like they have the production of the Soviet Union. Since 1991 Russia has declined.Sure, but “toned down” is a squishy, unknown amount! And might be swamped by inflation whether at the low 2-3 old planning purposes or the current percentage. Not to mention that the Chinese military capability is growing quite fast. Which also weighs against a hypothetical decrease in defense against Russia (the war is far from over, as is Russia).
I’m not clear whether your brief big bolded billions number means you want to shrink the authorized strength of each branch of the USA military? Stop procurement of new generations of platforms? Etc. But shouldn’t that discussion be in a new thread? Given the impact of the Ukraine war on thinking about war fighting AND the rise of China, that new forum topic would be interesting.
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23 minutes ago, Artkin said:
There is no right or left in this country, only American.
Wouldst that that were what every USA citizen believed and acted on. Especially in Congress, where both Parties have specific Caucuses that are far Left and far Right. But I applaud your sentiment. May it some day, some how come to pass.
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7 minutes ago, Artkin said:
Allocate funds where they are the most useful.
Good point! But according to who? Isn’t that the very point of political policy debate? And we lack an universal absolute correct crystal ball answer that includes knowledge of future potential developments 5, 10 years out. Plus we have competing challenges, needs, and knowledge in a highly complicated diverse array of groups of citizens - all within a gigantic population of over 330,000,000. No simple answers here.
The value of this line of posts is to illustrate the danger of single point predictions and assumptions about critical issues in the future. Ukraine support by the USA might be unchanged over the next two or three years and the Western Alliance will hold fast. But it may not! One Party has a more complex love/hate stance about Ukraine (whether based on reality or not). It would be folly to assume one outcome for support in that time frame. There are a range of degrees of support, not just All or Nothing. Or just a little change, so just assume same as “All”. Bottom line is that even that incoming Party doesn’t know it’s Ukraine policy until its leadership tests various positions in House and Senate caucus vote counts.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Though, to be fair to the left, they would like to see the whole defense budget zeroed out so at least they are being consistent with larger goals
Assuming your wink is meaning you are kidding about this rather large example of what was criticized right before it!
I fear we will stray into the USA political quicksand and suffocate by even *attempting* to plainly describe any factual, relevant developments in both the opinions and the potential range of policy changes affecting support for Ukraine in all forms, by the incoming Party in control of government.
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:
Hear hear! F YES! Way to cut thru the nonsense Artkin!
What they heck is the dang military budget for if not for what is happening right now. And we are blessed that we can do this w/o US citizens dying. Worth every cent. Putin chose to threaten the world in the stupidest way possible and thus we are able to fight back in a very direct way.
Well he has a point. All those superior weapon systems that are regularly developed - and consume all those Billions and Billions of dollars - could easily have been developed for free by hobbyists in their garages. Technology is extremely simple, testing is obviously unnecessary, and of course private enterprise production lines and wages are old fashioned. Who needs them really, because Russia isn’t really a threat. Right? And China? China? Um, yes. They make things we buy. Can’t be a threat either. Budget problem now solved!
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3 hours ago, dan/california said:
NamEndedAllen, got it, my brain misfired the first time I read it, and just stuck there.
Edit: So sorry, meant to say that the first time...
Much appreciated - and it is an awkward looking choice. But when I wrote up a brief account as he told it, it was the title that came to me. Keeping memory of his bravery alive.
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45 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Name_ended_Allen is making a reasonable case that real long range strike would work better, and faster. I am totally open to that argument. One way or the other though the Russians have to get the message that they just are not winning this, and ought to consider going home while they have some semblance of an Army left.
Thanks! Even the proverbial blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
But please note, handle is NAM_, not Name. Honoring the memory of my childhood best friend, which was effectively ended following his special ops missions there. Much like “Life goes on, even when the thrill of living is gone”. Except worse. Never forgotten.
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I keep wondering what the war would look like if the USA immediately provided Ukraine not with the ponderous big footprint (and target)of heavy armor and logistical trains but with the long range known capability to strike critical targets throughout much of European Russia and importantly, Moscow. Just as Russia can and does strike Kyiv. With all the necessary caveats and consequences on permitted usage and rules made clear to Ukraine (and Russia) beforehand. What are the serious, not Russiaphile, problems with such a policy? Fear of winning? The frog has been slowly boiled long enough, with strikes into Russia and occupied Crimea, that the extended artillery/missile range is not the leap that the appearance of the blatantly visible USA Abrams, Bradleys, F-16s, and huge logistics would be. Instead, it is a *deterrence* action only.
Accompanied by the public announcement by Ukraine - and private by the USA, to Russia along these lines:
From now on, any Russian strikes on civilians or civilian infrastructure will be met by equal and proportionate retaliation, for which Ukraine now openly has the means. Just as Russia has deterrent nukes. And just as international norms of modern warfare explicitly permit. That the world and Ukraine has had enough of Russia’s illegal aggression against a sovereign nation and will no longer tolerate the threat to the rest of Europe and to a peaceable world. If Russia wishes to continue losing militarily, the lines are there and Ukraine can and will meet and continue to defeat the Russian military. But henceforth no further heinous Russian crimes against humanity will go unpunished. Lastly, further Russian attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure will result in the USA labeling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism with all the consequent authorized sanctions against persons and nations that trade with Russia, as set forth here.
https://www.state.gov/terrorist-designations-and-state-sponsors-of-terrorism/
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5 hours ago, dan/california said:
The problem right from late March is that the we have been too scared of what winning means.
This, in a nutshell. For about everyone except Ukraine. Fear of winning. A known and treatable condition?
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From ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31
“Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on October 31, likely in an attempt to degrade Ukraine’s will to fight as temperatures drop. Russian forces fired over 50 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles from the northern Caspian Sea and the Volgodonsk region of Rostov Oblast, targeting critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 44 out of over 50 Russian missiles.[2] Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that the strikes damaged 18 mostly energy-related targets across 10 Ukrainian regions.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes cut off water to 80% of Kyiv residents on October 31 and left hundreds of thousands without power.[4]”. -https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
but if we aren't shipping it to Taiwan we ought to be shipping it to Ukraine.
So difficult not to give in to the “end it now with the weapons necessary” position. The USA Administration without doubt has more direct information that bears on the policy restrictions on the necessary weapons to decisively evict Russia and its war criminals from Ukraine. Not knowing the details and seeing the massive terror attacks on civilians across Ukraine is excruciating for us. But far worse for those enduring each day and night of living and dying from this marauding murderous mob with guns.
Perhaps as some have remarked, things will move towards decisive action after the elections next Tuesday. Although they appear to be bringing there own set of difficulties.
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21 minutes ago, hcrof said:
I wonder if it is just easier to bring trainloads of artillery shells there so they attack because they can press the artillery advantage?
That together with speculating the possibility that this attack is the only area in which they see an opportunity to actually capture something on the offensive. The fact that Bakhmut doesn’t look important to us isn’t the point for both their leadership and the Russian public, desperate for any sort of victory. Especially where they have trumpeted the attack for so long.
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(deleted)
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2 hours ago, danfrodo said:
Sorry to hear that, just went through that too.
And on the sports front, this is not about sports but about what's being shown during sports. Some group called "citizens for sanity" put multiple ads up during world series game last night and again during college football today. Straight up attacks and fear mongering aimed at Ukraine aid (and Biden). It looked so much like something directly paid for by Putin. Generally this group does fear mongering about crime & immigration but now are attacking Ukraine aid, saying "world war III' w videos of nuke tests in the background. Ex white house punk Stephen Miller is on the board of this group, so is not as fringe as one might hope. And these are expensive ads so someone is funding this at a very high level.
Thanks. Tough time, nearing the end. We’ve had much too much of this in our already not large family the past very few years. But…Miller? I wasn’t aware of these protests. Had been pleased to see the high passions in sports here having no violence. But Miller still at it. Should not be surprised, but am disgusted. I only hope his influence and the other Russophiles are not empowered with increased influence by the upcoming elections. Legislation (including support for Ukraine) can and is often blocked by a minority. Americans DO support Ukraine in very large numbers. Unfortunately or otherwise, our system allows much hornswoggling.
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7 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Personally I've zero interest in the Phillies or anything sports spamming up this thread.
Understood and you are correct. Suitably chastened, I humbly apologize for inappropriate material. Weakness in a moment of joyful over-exuberance in an otherwise unhappy time while watching over declining family member. Not to mention the rest of world grimness.
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We interrupt our regularly scheduled program for this breaking news update. Which has very little to do with our regularly scheduled programming. Except…it is about the absolute underest of underdogs triumphing time after time. NO ONE GAVE THEM A CHANCE. Rather like a brave, unyielding country the world wrote off earlier this year. But tonight, they did it yet again..
HOUSTON — The nation rejoices this morning, because, these days, Jason Kelce is dead wrong:Everyone likes us. And yes, we care.
The Fightin’ Phillies added another chapter to their fairy-tale season. They spotted the Astros a five-run lead through the first three innings, but, thanks to another episode of brilliant manipulation by rookie manager Rob Thomson and utter indifference to logic and expectation, roared all the way back for a 6-5 win Friday night.
An Okie struck the death blow
With the guile and perseverance that marks this as the most thrilling season in franchise history, the team that fired its manager on June 3, the team that needed 160 games to back into the postseason with the first No. 6 seed in baseball history, won Game 1 of a World Series they have no business being in. They won against the best team in baseball over the last six seasons, and they won it in that team’s cartoonish home stadium.
They won when J.T. Realmuto, the Oklahoman, made his Red River home folks prouder than ever, with a two-run double off Astros starter Justin Verlander to tie it at 5 in the fifth and a slicing, carrying, 3-2 solo homer off Luis Garcia to lead off the top of the 10th inning.
Leave it to the backstops.
Thomson was a catcher in his playing days. Realmuto’s the best catcher in baseball. Kelce surely would be a catcher if he didn’t play football.
This win, this night, was a wholesome elixir for a dying pastime. The Phillies have stolen home-field advantage for the fourth straight time this postseason, and, in Philly,
that’s a helluva thing.
Thanks in part to the underdog run the Eagles went on in 2017, and thanks in part to the arrogant misdeeds of the Astros in the past, America is a nation whose World Series sympathies are directed on one franchise, and one franchise only. An extremely unscientific study — 100,000 geotagged tweets tracked by an online betting site — showed that only six of 50 states favored the Astros, who are in the Series for the fourth time in the last six seasons. They won in 2017, but, to the delight of citizens who dislike cheaters, they lost in 2019 and 2021.
The Phillies, with their rascal of a mascot, an equally motley and hairy roster, and their team anthem, remarkably, co-written by Robyn, are the darlings of baseball. The Astros, meanwhile, are the villains. They’re the Patriots of Major League Baseball: a well-built, well-run, talented team that cheated to win.
-Marcus Hayes, The Philadelphia Inquirer
And before we return to the news of real life war, death and destruction, with sorrows piled upon sorrows for far too many souls, for far too long, here are the underdogs celebrating another victory in their march to winning the whole thing:
DANCING. ON. MY. OWN - Again. Just last week:
Apologies for sharing this Underdog story, to date. They must win three more times against the most dominant team in the American League for years now, who have been heavily favored by everyone (except the Phillies). But they believe in themselves. In a small way, like that country now fighting for its life, and winning now against all odds.PS I promise not to do this again. Honest. Unless in the truly unlikely and bizarre event that they actually win the Series itself..
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
It is expensive, until it's priceless, but at that point it is usually too late.
10 minutes ago, Twisk said:Not to put a too fine a point on it but you are replying to MikeyD 30+ hours and 5 pages later to further derail the thread.
If you care about derailment ignoring posts is better than replying.Precisely. And yet, it happens over and over. I suspect the uptick in production lasts for a few years, afterward - contracts already signed maybe. But as time goes by and the new ginormously expensive aircraft carrier is authorized, and a new generation of ballistic submarines and the new bomber and fighter - and no new war year after year…the funding for artillery goes down the priority list further and further.
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2 hours ago, sross112 said:
But then, how much is enough? Like you point out, trying to get it right would be pretty tough.
My understanding from history guys at the CGSC is that historically, the amount of artillery shells in every significant war is ALWAYS grossly underestimated beforehand. And that once again this has been the case. The concept and reliance on precision striking weapons has contributed to underestimating the sheer number of targets that require servicing. And the larger the country and its military size, and industrial base, the more quickly that number goes up.
Part of the problem is the weak willingness during peace time to fund higher, increased numbers of the most expensive strike weapons, especially considering that the cosmically expensive next generation air, land and sea platforms are in different stages of being designed and built. And maintained. That, Aaong with military pay increases. Tough budget problems in a limited resource environment.
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3 hours ago, JonS said:
And then all you need to do is solve those three assumptions for every ever other line-item used by the military
You said this much better than I did, in terms of the nitty gritty of the challenge!
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3 hours ago, poesel said:
That is really a problem. If you don't have customers who continually buy your stuff, you cannot just mothball an assembly line and unpack it whenever you need it. The supply chain is gone, as well as the skill required to run that line.
And thus the eternal simultaneous ambiguity and the passionate debates between the necessities of the military and arms industry on one side, and the claims on the other side that those entities actively manufacture and themselves feed conflicts in order to sell weapons. Personally, the shutting down of production lines has always made my stomach turn, my gut twisting, thinking, “Fools! Can’t you see the obvious threat right around the corner!”. That despite knowing I am on the side with bald faced political pressures simply for scoring election support. At the same time I know that down the line there are plainly unscrupulous arms dealers preying on local conflicts. Just to make a buck.
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18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Well, he did have the bright idea to invade Ukraine and steal its children.
Ahhh! The REAL reason for the invasion emerges. It seriously, the balance sheet at this point, and with what know, still looks quite negative for Russia.
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3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:
My own advice — in the event Putin deploys a small tactical nuclear weapon: Don’t be hasty. Condemn the act in the most serious terms but hold any retaliation long enough to let the world and his fellow Russians absorb what he has done.
This is not the dumbest advice put forward on the question.
3 hours ago, CAZmaj said:another scenario, one that might be described as a slow fading away for the Russian leader. A weakened Putin would cling to power, many more Russians would leave the country, and Russia would for a time simply exist as a dispirited and weak country.
Regardless of what lies ahead for Putin, Russia itself is already well along in fading away. No matter the state of its military, ultimately a nation requires people. Putin is throwing away thousands and thousands of lives of men from youth to um, maturity. AFAIK, even Russia needs both men and women for the esteemed and noble activity of, what term most appropriate here, ah, reproduction!
But wait! Houston, we have a problem: where are the people?
The newborns up to 30 years old are vanishing. The normal age distribution should look more like a pyramid or in the industrialized countries more like a cylinder as birth rates have come closer to population replacement ratios. As the vicissitudes of life occur, the numbers trail off until at the top, say those 90 to 100 years old hardly anyone is left. But Russia? This isnt a cylinder, let alone a pyramid. It’s a Christmas Tree with the big lower branches sawed off! Yah sure, modern industrialized countries have been trimming their reproduction rates, but this picture isn’t just the “normal” trimming. Plus it is quite top heavy. And the youngest tiers have already flattened. Which is either will be expensive or else bring much suffering and grimness. Who will work when the elderly surpass the young?Taking roughly speaking and rounding, 100,000 reproductive age men (and counting!) off the table is yet another display of Putin’s genius.
For comparison, here also is the USA distribution. Not a pyramid,
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
“pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com”
Rather says a lot about the internal USA political status. Pro Putin conservatives. In the USA. In the very circles where once the term for Russia was “The Evil Empire.”