NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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5 hours ago, Twisk said:
Yes it looks that much of the frontline is sparsely populated. Much less combat density than in your average combat mission. I also don't see much evidence of Russian using their ATGM and i do not know if this is because of lack of supply or lack of video.
But if enemy primary counter is artillery fire then even light armor will be good.
Wouldn't U.S. industry need to produce enough for both internal consumption and external consumption becuase of the free market? U.S. field production for June (all types) is 533,000 (in thousands of barrels) but then exports 300,000. February U.S. exports 50,000 fewer barrels (all types).
I think this show problem possible due to Russian violence in Ukraine as markets become unstable and must cope with high intensity war. Others have said but providing Ukraine with best means to end war seems like best way to return markets to stability. Issue will become worse over winter so it is important that Ukraine has battlefield success to show world.Some context. The USA is already the largest oil producer in the world. Even with compromises to avoid the worst damages that occur. And we cannot keep up with the demand from other countries besides our own. This does not include or reference NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION. USA also Numero Uno. See at bottom. Using up even more of what USA has remaining in the ground plays into OPEC (and Russia?) hands. In grander strategy, USA needs to find multi pronged means to address demand. While still able to be largest energy producer.
Top 10 Oil-Producing Countries (barrels per day):Country
Monthly Production
Reference Month
United States
11,567,000
12/2021
10,503,000
11/2021
10,225,000
02/2022
4,656,000
11/2021
4,260,000
02/2022
3,969,000
11/2021
2,954,000
02/2022
2,852,000
11/2021
2,610,000
02/2022
2,546,000
02/2022
Top 10 Countries that Produce the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):
- United States — 914.6 billion
- Russia — 638.5 billion
- Iran — 250.8 billion
- China — 194 billion
- Qatar — 171.3 billion
- Canada — 165.2 billion
- Australia — 142.5 billion
- Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
- Norway — 111.5 billion
- Algeria — 81.5 billion
Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020):
- United States — 832 billion
- Russia — 411.1 billion
- China — 330.6 billion
- Iran — 233.1 billion
- Canada — 112.6 billion
- Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion
- Japan — 104.4 billion
- Germany — 86.5 billion
- Mexico — 86.3 billion
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5 hours ago, akd said:
Government is not currently restraining short-term oil production in the U.S.
Terrible thing to even think to suggest, but maybe possibly we back in the cheap seats might have to actually suffer a bit too. And pay higher prices. War is expensive in many ways. Ukraine is paying in lives and entire cities.
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6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:
Since everyone seems to be going crazy about nukes these days, this article by Timothy Snyder about how the war might actually end is especially worth reading:
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war
TLDR: It's probably not by nuclear war, but by a gradual shift in Russian perceptions about the war led both by setbacks on the battlefield and political crisis at home.
Snyder is a smart guy. And this is certainly a well written projection combining several of the many scenarios explored in these 1,500+ pages. But he makes a ton of assumptions, “if this, then that…and if that, then this other, and if that other, then this…” becomes a gradual relatively smooth winding up of the war. Nice!
But nations’ crises also result in sudden, abrupt radical change. In evolution this is called “punctuated equilibrium.” In the moment of the crisis, it is certainly difficult to foresee the ultimate outcome.
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8 hours ago, Doc844 said:
I'm way behind on this thread again, work can suck at times, only on page 1485, but wanted to chip my 2 pence worth in on nukes and use of. One thing to remember is that as people get older they move more away from the 'me' to their kids but even more importantly their grandkids. They are their future, our future and humans are hardwired to that as part of the perpetuation of the species. So yes you may have the man at the top, ala, Mr Putlin who may or may not give a ****, all is lost I'm gonna go the way of Hitler and take everyone with me. But I can guarentee that most under him and even more so those who are further away from the levers of power do not agree and want a future for their families and relatives. I strongly believe that if Putlin decides to drop a nuke there is a very high probability, even inevitability that someone will vacate his brain from his skull.
If I recall correctly what I stated above was one of the main reasons why Kruschev de-escalated and brought the world back from the brink. Not saying that this position should be used as a hail Mary plan but I could see that being the way it would pan out.
Putlin - "**** the west, they ruined my glorious plan, **** Ukraine they didnt roll over and die, press the red button". Loud bang and the next thing he sees is Lucifer standing with a big grin saying welcome.
This is certainly a more desirable outcome than…nukes. And it is the storyline we tell a lot when needing to replace the previous one, that Putin is too rational to risk blowing up various levels of his own country’s future and the world’s as well. It’s what we think we would do if we ourselves had the choice at the critical moment, in our own Western countries. But it relies entirely on hope as a war strategy. Here in the peanut gallery, we don’t have perfect knowledge of the protections and mindsets involved in protecting Putin. The former KGB guy.
In the Cuban Missile Crisis, we now know that just one rational and determined man stopped the besieged depth charged Fox Trot’s Captain from launching his “special weapon” nuclear war head torpedo at the USN, as per his orders. Another ranking officer in the three sub flotilla was also aboard and blocked the captain’s given order at the critical moment. Talked the rattled captain down. And WWIII was averted. One guy. Could have not been there. Boom…
Question: do we know whether any of the Russian subs have nuclear-armed cruise, not ballistic missiles that could be used in lieu of a land or air launch?
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8 hours ago, kevinkin said:
Putin’s mentality increasingly resembles an eerie channeling of That Adolf. Fantasy offensives with a crumbling army, living in a bunker, genocidal slanders and oversight of many war crimes. Most deeply concerning - it’s a nuclear war bunker.
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October 5th Update from ISW
Key Takeaways
- The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone.
- The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General.
- Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
- Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
- Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5.
- Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5.
- Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5.
- https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:
Yeah, well, they were anti-Iraq war because it was built on lies. Cheney et al conflated 9-11 w saddam hussein and then told KNOWN lies about WMD. So they were right, as much as I wanted Saddam dead like most folks. I was ~70-80% against the Iraq invasion; it was built on lies and exploited american anger and grief to try to realize neo-con wet dream fantasies. (sounds crazy but I kinda feel bad for Bush -- he was a trusting guy who trusted rotten bastards, and he realized that by ~2006 by which time he wouldn't give cheney the time of day. T think Bush would've been happier to just live his trust fund baby life w occasional nice cushy jobs watching baseball and other sports -- actually this sounds kinda good to me right now
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I supported US going into Afghanistan, though I thought we should have gotten out earlier -- TheCapt & CombatInfMan might correct my thinking on this.
There is no contradiction between opposing a wrong war and supporting a right one. Markos (head of Kos) is a veteran and his army son just entered ranger school. Contrary to popular belief, not all military folks are MAGA.
And yes, I always put the disclaimer, because I think that is a courteous thing to do and helps to not distract the forum.
So let's get back on track!
Good point.
Regarding that “warning” though, why not always appending a similar labeling for links to any conservative sites that might also have headlines with political slants. Or maybe better to simply drop the whole political labeling thing and assumptions about tender feelings among the huge population here. Because the emphasis simply underscores the politics, not the information itself. -
I wouldn’t worry unless you find yourself beginning to say things at work like, “Fire for effect!”
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1 hour ago, Kinophile said:
Yup. We've already explored this topic. There's a simpler explanation than some long-view deep thinking on the part of politicians - prior agreements panning out by accident into a better overall situation.
Perhaps in politics and war not everything is always quite so simple. Trump’s signal of withdrawal and other such past precedents were certainly not universally applauded as wise strategy. But there it was, handed to an incoming President with a clock of a few months ticking away. One should never forget that management focus in any organization, large or small is a scarce resource. Among the various scenarios bandied about, a not unreasonable one is a mixture of a bad hand deprioritized and handed to the quick and dirty “it’s going to be a mess but you guys are stuck with it” C or D or worse team. Because a storm is coming, NATO is in shambles, we have a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands, and an economy that is once again teetering (except for the stock market!). The military is worn by decades in a no-win not a war again nation building futile exercise. And Europe is a greater strategic and national interest than that Graveyard of Empires. So that’s our immediate priority focus overseas. Tough decisions, never guaranteed to be right until the dust settles. Pretty clear the new USA Admin was repairing European relations and sharing intelligence well ahead of the storm of the century in Europe. And it looks as if Afghanistan was viewed as a write off - just as the in the previous Administration. It is an ugly ugly world. We end up grabbing our Bright Moments when and how we can.
I must say how good and pleasant it is to see the USA unequivocally backing the good guys.
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1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:
Putin won’t got go to Beijing, he too afraid of getting CIVID 19.
I doubt China would want to have the diplomatic headache, constant distraction and sheer embarrassment of having to shield a notorious war leader wanted for high profile war crimes trial. Bad for the image, you know.
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1 hour ago, Vacillator said:
I've learned from this forum that 'only Texas matters'. It says so here: @Vergeltungswaffe
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NOLA (unless I'm misunderstanding) is not in Texas?
Technically, NOLA does matter. Because food, music, a big battle there although perhaps getting to be a long time ago. So it is exempt from the East (loser) v West (clearly the winner at the end of the day…ha!) debate.
Now we return to our regularly scheduled program.
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50 minutes ago, Vacillator said:
Doesn't seem to be, except for limiting the speed of file turn around at times, which isn't the end of the world.
Thinking about it, I've realised an odd thing - I don't think I've played anyone from outside of North America. Don't know why that is. It's probably partly a reflection that I havent played that many people.
Anway, if and when, just PM me here. The off-topic police will then be able to stand down.
Controversial
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Will do!
The sun sets properly over the ocean as it should, on the West Coast. Safely, in beauty and splendour. Clearly better than seeing it descend onto the land as a blazing ball of nuclear fire, consuming our women and children. I don’t understand how those in the East stand the daily horror. -
1 hour ago, Vacillator said:
You're the veteran my friend, so I was hoping to learn
. I'm not sure I have much that I can teach, but you never know.
Learning the game is one thing though, learning from other players is another. I learnt something totally unexpected this week, just by reading a 'random' post here in a thread I was involved in. Wish I could remember who it was
, must look back. I had to think about it, try it, and then by coincidence do it the same day in a PBEM. It has added a bit of time to my setup turns, but that's not a problem and I might do slightly better in some games now.
One thing I like about PBEMs (and there's quite a few things I like) is that I can talk to my opponents, who are usually better at various or all things than I am (or maybe they're just luckier). We have a laugh and a joke but also a serious talk about why such things have gone a certain way. Priceless.
As for victory or defeat, it's often such a thin line.
Well I have never played CM against a human/PBEM in all these years. Used to do TacOps that way, in the previous millennium iirc. Otherwise, with those “humans”, only co-op sims and such. And my skills in CM are minuscule relative to those sims. Which are doubtless not THAT great anyway! So I lean to co- op type entertainment. But in the sort of atmosphere you describe, maybe time to try.
BTW, Time zone an issue? I see you are standing in the Mother Country, and I on the far Western (better!) edge of North America.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
"buts in" - inserts her much more well thought out observations to correct some inadvertent errors in your recall of events I think is how it is translated.
She does display that all too uncanny quite annoying ability. She is sooo fortunate I stay with her!
And yet, 32 years later, here we are. She remains One Fine Gal.
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47 minutes ago, Tenses said:
This is actually quite common pyramid in Europe. Look at Italy, I think this is the "worst" one(in Europe). I guess that their unemployment problem will end too quickly for their liking.
Yes it is, throughout the West and also Japan, and as was mentioned China too. It is the choice in the wealthier nations to have fewer children per family. But Russia had its guts practically torn out during WWII and they’ve never really recovered from that demographic catastrophe. Alcoholism and assorted woes have contributed in modern times to the overall ethnic Russian population becoming static, or iirc actually shrinking for the first time.
This general tendency in the other economically strong nations is well recognized for many decades in Population Studies research journals. And it is an interesting but off topic struggle for nations to address falling younger demographics/working population with increased productivity per worker. But even that is creating issues; technologies replacing existing workers creates social tensions and disruptions. The world is always@ complicated place in which to make large scale decisions. My wife buts in and reminds me of decisions we, um, I made during the summer. But let’s not get into that! ;-:
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25 minutes ago, dan/california said:
What will the impact be of ANOTHER 100,000 zinc coffins. Although they will probably be down to cack handed pine boxes well before that point.
Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart:
It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I really like Perun but he is a civilian that appears to work deeply on the corporate side of things. Sometimes when he wanders into military operations he gets a little off-menu - he has stated this multiple times.
So in order for the Russia mobilization to become “extremely significant” the Russian military needs to overcome much more than it mobilization challenges - it would have to rebuild a better military than it had on 23 Feb. The RA is demonstrating it lags significantly in the stuff that really matters at this level of warfare - C4ISR, logistics and joint capabilities. I have watched the RA repeatedly conduct unsynchronized and uncoordinated operations, while the UA does the opposite. The Russian missile campaign should have been able to cut up Ukrainian infrastructure, both physical and information, if it was coordinated and armed with comparable ISR - they have not done this, instead leaning on terror strikes like this was 1940. The closest we have seen was the strikes on those dam-locks but I am still not sure of the military value of that action.
If the UA managed to pull off two river crossings it is also a sign that the RA is lagging. As we saw last spring, a major river obstacle crossing in an environment where ISR is everywhere should be next to impossible, yet the UA appears to have done it. So what? The RA can’t see them, or if they can, they can not act on it.
It will not matter if Russia can get 1 million men in uniform with rusty AKs on the line, if they cannot command, support and coordination those troops they are just going to die - pretty efficiently based on what we have seen from the UA.
I suspect that this war will go down as “the last war of the 20th century versus one of the first of the 21st”. We have had the preludes in Iraq, Ukraine in 2014 - where the symmetry was reversed, Ukraine fighting like it was 1989 and the Russians fighting like it was 2005, and Armenia.
If the RA suddenly started to demonstrate a 21st century C4ISR architecture, I would be shocked and frankly we would have to rethink this war. However, despite attempts (see Iranian drones), this is not about sensors, it is about boring things like All Source Intel Fusion and communications. - that takes years to build, years that Russia does not have.
Finally the fact that Russia thinks that mobilization of mass is a solution demonstrates that amateurs on the Russian side are running their war.
Thanks for these thoughts. Also, small point, when reading the PERUN summary, something like don’t underestimate the impact of 300,000 troops. “Troops?” Might be getting to persnickety semantic, but might the term “troops” be extremely misleading? At least as widely described, many if not all are either being thrown in practically just of the streets - or supposedly after a flawed Cliff Notes version of that was less than a CM single Tutorial. Even that 3rd AK was well equipped and had maybe the CM Training Campaign level. And has been badly ineffective. Rather than calling a mass like that now…amassing!…”troops”, aren’t they really nothing much more than the apt label, a mob with guns”?
Add to that your insights about the utter failure of any degree of modern intelligence, planning and leadership. The result of the mobilization looks like the destruction of a significant percentage of the productive male demographic. In a country already challenged demographically. Can the sum total of the highest Russian authorities actually be THIS suicidal?
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20 hours ago, Vacillator said:
Hmmm, I know what you mean. And I read your other posts too.
The offer still stands, my woods are only slightly lighter...
You teach, I learn? In CMx2 I have recently FB, CW and BS. Also BfN demo only. Perhaps better learning? Waiting for Steam release. Plus the three main CM1x.
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On 5/20/2022 at 4:29 AM, JM Stuff said:
Thank you for the information, I couldn't have done it alone, I've already made 2 attempts to do it, to be honest I wonder how this procedure hasn't had more questions about how it should go because there you have to know it and put it into practice and it's not won, but hey, let's not underestimate all the warlords of the forum, who practice the CM series, perhaps,I was the only ignoramus of the century not to know this procedure, but I doubt.
PS are slightly blurry, I don t see any, if yes, I need probably strong glasses !
thank you @chuckdyke
JM
Ignoramus #2 here. Thanks, chuckdyke.
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5 minutes ago, sburke said:
dude I was already down from that video then you decide I'm not down enough? So sorry to hear of your loss.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Oh, I'd believe that in a heartbeat. We've been discussing here that the force that crossed the Siverskyi Donets was not there for sight seeing, yet they were oddly quiet. I think we just figured out what they were waiting for!
If Ukraine is actively pushing into Kreminna then it is either already, or soon to be, moving into Dibrova. Based on Ukraine's pattern of behavior, they never go for a narrow strike, they always go wide (which is textbook approved!). If they have Dibrova, then they will likely be able to interdict the N/S farm road just north of the town. That would pretty much isolate all forces that were trying to connect with the Lyman pocket. A double pocket is a very nice thought.
Steve
Isn’t it worth a toast or two to how strongly Ukraine’s military has gone from zero major offensive coordination, to THIS? The first time in strength?
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1 hour ago, Vacillator said:
That's a great summary. Love it.
I might also be an older punk in life years, but not in game years - I only stumbled across the wonder of CM maybe 3 years ago EDIT: No that's rubbish, 2020!. Shocking I know, but in my defence I think I had been confusing it with another game which was rather sh1te.
I am at your service if you want to win a PBEM, just PM me.
You have made up for lost time, though! I however am as a lost child, walking in dark woods where all the trees suddenly look far too much the same. This way? That way? Oh…UH OH!
But thank you for your kind offer. I most likely could offer you the fine feeling of major victory.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
This is a hard watch....
The raw, heavy, heart-breaking price of freedom that time will never erase.
I am forever grateful that my precious little girl died in my arms, surrounded by love and care, not in violence and the horror of what people can and will do to one another. -
4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
TLDR: surprisingly small relative drop to the total amount of about 800 pieces total.
Likely these and similar sites for ammo etc. are among those on the list for NATO retaliatory strikes in the event of Putin crossing THE red line. High ratio of matériel vs lives. Immediate crippling of mechanized war fighting ability.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Except when you need it
(see “Florida Governor DeSantis”