NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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2 hours ago, Huba said:
In any case, money seems to not be a problem for the US military...
What *does* seem to be a problem is for the USA and Europe to decide whether they are in this for Ukraine to *win*, or just to bleed and freeze while tying down much of Russia’s military and gathering weapons and tactics comparisons and evaluations. I hate so much to even think this. But look at the the brutal fact of the onslaught of war crimes against the millions of Ukrainian women, children and elderly in their homes and schools - trying to freeze them to death in darkness across the entire country. What must Russia do in order tor the Allies to once and for all provide the long range weapons for Ukraine to be able to respond proportionally, as in the laws of war that the Allies honor? How high is that bar? Do we really see Russia backing down because of the weapons, training and sanctions already given - however generous those have been. Do the Allies *really* believe that if Ukraine knocks out electricity in neighboring Russian cities that Russia will send its unstoppable armies flooding into Poland, and roll across Europe to the Channel?
Is there *anything* at all that will cause the USA for example, to declare ”Enough!”?
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I don’t suppose there is any chance of loading up and/or unloading sanctioned weapons during these bromance exchanges?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-chinese-bombers-land-at-each-others-airfields-after-joint-patrols -
On 11/29/2022 at 6:41 AM, Seminole said:
Such funding will have plenty of Democrat votes, so the fringe GOP members are not really an issue for passage, just good for ratings as mentioned.
Unfortunately, USA politics often don’t work that way. Especially now that the government is divided. This is germane to the forum because of the war, and because we haven’t had divided government during the invasion until now (January). Dems no longer control both Houses and the procedures. Again, the issue isn’t WHETHER OR NOT! It is HOW LONG will it now take, and with what strings, reductions, and demands (investigations, etc). The unknown is how much will get through the sausage grinding, and how much longer the grinding may take. We can *hope* that nothing will change! But at this point the Republicans can’t even decide who the Speaker of the House will be. So the careful observer will note that governing the House - legislating - is likely to be much more difficult than it has been.
First, the House holds the purse strings. Bills must now go through the Republican controlled committee(s). They only get voted out when members have debated and amended them with pet changes and demands. At a minimum this will take longer than prior. Then the issue of if and *when* a bill will come to a floor vote. Complicated frequently by the bizarrely irrational and destructive requirement by the new majority that bills must be able to pass *only* with their Party’s votes. If the Chair overrides this, he pays a price to the pro Putin fringe for “compromising with the enemy” (Democrats). Yep. That’s today’s USA politics. If/when this or any bill passes the House, the Senate gets it and must either approve as written (as if!), or make their changes and demands. If the bill from the House is clean enough, the Senate will pass something roughly similar that must either go back to the House, and then the Senate (Pi g Pong), or go to “Conference”, where members try to alter each other’s versions to become one bill. And then THAT goes back to both Houses for a vote.
So again, we are not debating whether the USA will continue to fund provide Ukraine military and non military support. The unknown is how much, and how much longer might that take to pass. No one knows this, not even the majority leadership.
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14 hours ago, acrashb said:
One assumes this is a joke, but for clarity - it could not be more wrong. The US' foibles loom larger on the world stage because they matter more; Canada's foibles get regional coverage, partly because of the much smaller economy and partly because Canada seems non-threatening to other parts of the world and so is discounted.
But 'reason' is in short supply with our leaders and commentariat as much as elsewhere. If the US seems more 'out there', in addition to the above, and to deliberate gridlock built into the US political system, there is the issue of gerrymandering, a pox on democracies everywhere. Schwarzenegger's core legacy in California is, and will be seen as, attempts to dampen this.
Back to lurking.
Wait! Did your loser voters storm your Capitol, violently trying to overthrow your Parliament in whatever analogous function to ratifying your free and fair leadership election? With several dead, many wounded, and your Parliament building trashed? No? End of THAT debate!
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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
US politics aside. How on earth are people still listening to this guy after 9 months of an almost continuous steady stream of “being wrong”?! I mean I have been tracking Macgregor since the very early days and by my count Ukraine has collapsed in this war about a half a dozen times according to him. I get that he is telling some people what they want to hear and lord knows one political party or the other could not possibly getting a win, but at some point one has to go - “hey didn’t he say the Russians won by now?” I am absolutely baffled that anyone is listening to an former military officer whose analysis and predictions have been proven very wrong, repeatedly.
As a professional military officer I am left wonder if he and I are watching the same war. “Russia is holding back?” Holding back what?! And “for what?” The loss count is getting to modern army crippling levels- when your losses are approaching Iraqi standards and you are constantly losing ground to show for it…well you get my point. I mean we all get that there is “spinning” but this is outright lying - the guy is a SAMS grad FFS.
Because they do not believe he is wrong! You guys up North breathe the calm cool vapors of reason, of evidence for and against. Much like the Russian tv videos that are linked here that many in Russia do indeed believe…we here in the USA have a significant percentage of citizens who believe in alternative “ facts”. And perhaps of much more explanatory value, they limit quite severely the information sources to which they attend. Definitely not including the primary sources in print, video and internet. Mountains of independent research have supported this unfortunate tendency. And so, we have a large body of people living in a small information bubble.
To be fair, we ALL do this to some extent (except those here in the greatest information aggregator on Earth, where reports are vetted and chiseled pro and con by every one and the actual experts until a redo above best provisional judgment remains - but is up for revision if facts warrant it. What a concept!
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50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:
Both sides are. CNN and MSNBC are no different. Some people just pick the left or right cesspool to swim in And IMHO, most Americans are not voting based on these shows. If they are, we better look long and hard at how Americans are educated. But in any event, FOX et. al. only gathers up around 5 million viewers a day. NYC alone has a population of over 8 million. OK, we all understand each other. Let's wait and see how the 1Q pans out.
Ok two last points:
1. Of course they are far different! Fox is in the tank with Putin! Tucker Carlson on Fox is the highest rated cable news show in the USA. And absolutely adores Putin.
2. I keep reminding folks, it isn’t a question of will or won’t USA Republican Congress fund Ukraine! At least until 2024, the USA will continue military funding. The issue is HOW MUCH funding, and even more so, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE to pass. Yes, the Fascist slanted Pro Russians in Congress are a minority. But the Republican majority hangs by a thread, so each member of a small minority wields enormous power. Because their vote is needed to pass funding bills. And as Steve has said, they will drag us through the coals using their misbegotten soapbox. While Ukrainians due defending their country.
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6 hours ago, kevinkin said:
100% agree. Not concerned with oversight at all. It's the role of Congress. There is chance to actually get more support for Ukraine. No politician wants to vote against a nation on the verge of a major geopolitical shake up in the West's favor. Rogue votes will be made, but they are for representative's constituents to high five over. Those votes will have nothing to do with Ukraine per se. But just a protest about foreign spending in general. Ukraine does not have a blank check, but the support required for victory will be there in the end. This might be the most bipartisan issue in years and really tick off cable news. There are no ratings fighting over a few hundred million one way or the other.
It’s the sausage making, folks! The problem with these opinions about the USA new House of Representatives Republicans and what they will do or not do is too often missing the actual legislative process. It isn’t so much about YES OR NO, WILL REPUBLICANS SUPPORT UKRAINE FUNDING crystal ball gazing! The issue is how much the isolationist AND pro Russia/Putin elected Congress persons will slow down all funding legislation, and what special interests demands they will tack on to Ukraine funding in order to get to a floor vote. Both parties ALWAYS add in pet partisan items into must pass legislation, because, duh! Must pass. Then they haggle over what price will be paid to drop some of these, or to keep them. It gets ugly.
Remember, it is the House that makes spending/Appropriation bills. The bottom line is that the establishment of increased oversight (a bipartisan move underway now, actually) along with getting *any* Appropriation legislation passed and then negotiated with the Democratic Senate is going to take more *time*. Time is the 500 ton monster in the “room”, killing Ukrainians daily, freezing them in their homes, hobbling businesses. And moving the USA closer to the 2024 Presidential election which is guaranteed to be fierce and unpredictable. Ukraine needs more military options NOW. They need an answer to Russia’s crimes against humanity missile attacks against civilians across the country. And quickly.
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:
The game is going to be that any discrepancy is going to be used by House Republicans to hold up aid: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-scrambles-track-20b-ukraine-aid-house-republicans-warn-audits
Unfortunately that is highly probably, almost a given. What is desperately needed is a change in focus from “only what will help me and my Party - screw the rest”, to what is going to help my country, and my Allies especially in the struggle against the worst human impulses against one another”, and ultimately, facts and reason over fantasy and ego/selfishness. Putin is a master in stoking the latter impulses in the West. It remains one of his only strategic weapons that can and is being used.
In a war that has become a grind of two battered fighters striving to stay in the ring and standing up, time is increasingly critical. Neither has an unlimited amount of it.
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For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights.
House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports.
Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/
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15 minutes ago, Taranis said:
Exactly. He has always been very critical of the Ukrainian command and politicians. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian losses are very probably heavy, everyone suspects it, but he exaggerates things a lot. He takes certain elements of Russian propaganda a little too much as truth. He's been wrong a lot of times in the past on things like HIMARS attacks on ammunition depots etc, but now he's just gone into a fungus delirium I believe. If we listened to him, Ukraine would have already collapsed 5 times in the past 2 months. He is never so critical with the Russians. Ukrainian successes are minimized or even hidden and small local Russian successes are directly cited. Perhaps his logic/strategy is to seek provocation from listeners and thus pass himself off as someone neutral and therefore more reliable... In any case, it has become pathetic and that's a shame.
Also, his videos are very long now which is even more of a waste of time. I know that Steve already knows this site well, but if you have little time and want a good almost daily military summary, you have to go to militaryland.net
Combining the two channels from my previous post plus militaryland will take you about 20-25 minutes a day and you'll get a really good (IMHO) look at what's going on as the War in Ukraine videos take you have for about 48 minutes and it's just sh*t.
Taranis, thanks for the advice about militaryland.net. Those maps are excellent.
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Maybe I missed someone posting this? EU Parliament has formally voted in favor of declaring Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism:
As noted this doesn't have the same weight as the US making a similar declaration, therefore it is largely symbolic. When the US put someone on its list there's a whole range of really powerful things that kick in immediately. Too bad this declaration did not get made this year because I doubt it will have a chance of happening next year.
Steve
Steve, it’s good that this happened. I posted a couple links on the prelim vote back on page gazillion-fifty-eight. It was described as “a non legislative resolution”. Unlike the USA they don’t have a legal basiis for this characterization, unlike the sanctions already passed. But it certainly underscores their assessment of what Russia *is*.
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I obviously chose the “wrong” side! Total Victory first try, a slaughter.
Just testing for mods etc before trying the “Wiltz” scenario, in advance of the CMFB version inspired by this one. Wiltz is such a storied battle early in the Bulge, and the CMFB version looks magnificent. -
And in other war crime related news of massive crimes against humanity:
Ukraine's western city of Lviv is without power after a wave of Russian missiles pounded the country.
Critical infrastructure in Kyiv was also targeted, and the city's officials said three people died in the attack.
Across the border, Moldova also reported "massive" blackouts, although it has not been directly hit.
Moscow has recently increased strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving half of the country's power grid in need of repair.
Ukraine's national power grid operator has said the damage sustained by power generating facilities in recent weeks has been "colossal" and warned that Ukrainians could face long power outages over the winter months.
Early on Wednesday, an air-raid alert was issued across Ukraine, followed by reports of explosions in a number of locations.
Ukraine's air force said over 70 cruise missiles were launched by Moscow, with air defences intercepting 51 projectiles. Officials said five drones were also launched.But the attack has caused significant damage to infrastructure across the country.
Ukraine's state energy company, Energoatom, said three nuclear reactors were taken offline due to the blackout.
And in the capital Kyiv, parts of the city have been let without water and completely without power, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
Lviv mayor, Andriy Sadovy, said children had been taken to shelters with their teachers - and urged parents not to pick them up until the alarm was over.
Shortly before the fresh reports from Kyiv and Lviv, officials said southern Ukraine had come under renewed assault.
The governor of the Mykolaiv region warned of "many rockets" arriving from the south and east.In the nearby Zaporizhzhia region, a newborn baby was killed when a missile hit a maternity unit, emergency services said.
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KYIV, Nov 23 (Reuters) - There is evidence that Russian commanders in several instances were aware of sexual violence by military personnel in Ukraine “and in some cases, encouraging it or even ordering it,” according to an international criminal lawyer assisting Kyiv’s war crimes investigations.
British lawyer Wayne Jordash told Reuters that in some areas around the capital of Kyiv in the north, where the probes are most advanced, some of the sexual violence involved a level of organisation by Russian armed forces that “speaks to planning on a more systematic level.” He didn’t identify specific individuals under scrutiny.
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2 hours ago, danfrodo said:
I think this discussion is somewhat irrelevant outside of how it affects the war. It's about whether it hurts support for UKR. This episode is a tragedy however it happened: a bunch of RU guys wanted to surrender, some idiot fires on & wounds UKR soldier, the RU guys then all killed by the UKR soldiers. The dead are dead and the wounded are wounded, tragically. But all that matters now is the how this affects the war. Are we so naive to think that this kind of thing doesn't happen in war? -- no, we all get it. This was filmed and is being seen in the west, and in RU, and that can affect the war.
So it doesn't matter about WW2 or vietnam or whatever or whether I think or y'all think is a crime or not. It's cynical to say it but now this is all an ongoing PR situation for RU to exploit and UKR to try to mitigate. No point in holding endless and pointless court proceedings here on the forum, arguing about legality, etc. 'course, y'all can if you want. But it's pointless.
I am hoping some big (and good) news comes along to get this off the media radar, and soon, but the mud is locking up the fronts. Maybe a nice coup in moscow? One can dream.
Well said. Though it is helpful to have the legal points brought up and clarified for our edification. Focusing pages of debate on one such incident in a brutal genocidal war with literally thousands of equal or in most case far worse circumstances by the invader feels as if it only furthers the propaganda/PR value for Russia. I for one do not expect Ukrainian forces to be perfect in defense of their homes and families, especially after all this time and horror. I do expect that reckonings will come AFTER the war. At least in the West, where our shared values strongly incline us to. My support for defending Ukraine against this illegal invasion is not so thin and weak as to be shaken by this.
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2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:
A positive step! But not a legislative, legally binding act. See statement below:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/agenda/briefing/2022-11-21/1/meps-set-to-declare-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism
By declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, MEPs want to prepare the ground for Putin and his government to be held accountable for these crimes before an international tribunal.The debate took place during the October plenary session.
Vote: Wednesday, 23 November
Procedure: Non-legislative resolution
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Apoears far from an official adoption, and not a legally binding measure
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/15/meps-mull-declaring-russia-a-terrorist-state-over-brutal-and-inhumane-crimes-against-ukraiThe European Parliament should declare Russia a terrorist state for the "intimidation and destruction of Ukrainians as a nation," according to a strongly-worded resolution being drafted by the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) and seen by Euronews.
At least two other political groups, Renew Europe and the European Conservatives and Reformists, are preparing similar texts, Euronews can confirm, increasing the odds for a formal declaration to be issued by the hemicycle as early as next Wednesday.
The groups plan to put their resolutions, which could be eventually merged into one, to a vote during next week's plenary, where they would necessitate a majority of MEPs to be formally adopted.
Parliamentary resolutions are not legally binding but can carry a heavy symbolic weight. -
40 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Yes, good points throughout. Including:
“Discussions about the desirability of Ukraine negotiating from a position of strength, while its forces are winning, are based on a mistaken premise. Ukraine has liberated nearly half the land Russia has seized since renewing its invasion in February 2022—meaning that Russia still has more than half the territory it illegally occupies. Ukraine has momentum in this conflict, but not yet the upper hand. Its negotiating position is stronger than it was when Russian forces were advancing on additional critical cities and regions, but not yet strong enough to have created good conditions from which to negotiate.”
AND
“Freezing the conflict where it is now invites renewed Russian invasion sooner and badly undermines Ukraine’s ability to prevail in either a renewed hot war or in the new cold war.
Allowing Russia to keep some or all the areas it currently holds also condemns millions of Ukrainians to the ongoing Kremlin efforts to Russify them; to identify, torture, and kill people who still give their allegiance to Kyiv; to abduct Ukrainian children and adopt them forcibly into Russian families; and to continue the ethnic cleansing campaign Putin is pursuing to eliminate the Ukrainian national identity everywhere he can.“
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10 hours ago, Erwin said:
Thanks! Interesting historical perspective to set the stage. Am in the midst of it now.
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
The Ukrainians have made some mistakes related to this accident at the Polish border. I do not believe they are significant mistakes, but they are perhaps revealing. First and foremost they reveal how stressed the Ukrainian leadership is. Zelensky and his government are fighting an existential war with just barely enough support. The just barely part is because NATO is chicken$##&& and unwilling to further provoke Russia, or other than Poland and the Baltics, take the slightest strategic risk in terms of stock depletion. When something went bang in Poland, in the middle of an attack that was intended to utterly cripple Ukraine's power grid, Ukraine reacted emotionally just this once, instead of playing the rock steady good soldier. Given the possibility of finally getting FULL support instead of the carefully calculated flow they have been given. That careful calculation let's remember guarantees many more months of grinding, brutal war. And a butcher's bill for every day of it. Getting ahead of themselves with a flare of hope we might pull our heads out of our A&%$, and or consider dead and tortured Ukrainians as important as Poles or Frenchmen, was a mistake. But bleep me it was an understandable one.
Ukraine needs more support, it needs five billion a month in financial support without a desperate daily scramble to round it up. It needs two hundred more tubes of 155, and perhaps every round of 155 ammo in Europe. IT NEEDS ATACAMS, and permission to strike rail infrastructure in Russia. It needs several hundred top tier IFVs even more than it needs Leopard/Abrams. Or NATO can start firing cruise missiles in quantity and end this in three days. Or we can keep being chicken$^$# and letting Ukrainians die and freeze.
Opinion is worth what you paid, but I stand by it.
Absolutely. On a day when Ukrainians were being devastated by a deadly rain of terror missile attacks throughout the country - again! - ONE missile in their own defense may have gone off course while trying to stop an incoming Russian attack. And it IS a tragedy. Along with the other thousands of tragedies suffered through Ukraine on that day. Chapter 42 in the far too long book, “Why The Allies Must Decide Winning NOW Is The Way To End This War”.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
Yes! Amazing perseverance- and mysterious failures by Russia to disrupt. Couple of quotes from the Times article:
“In ways large and small, Ukrainian National Railways, with its 230,000 employees, has been a vital player in this war, helping to keep the nation bound together as Russia tries to tear it apart. The railway has enabled the flight of refugees and of those who are internally displaced, the movement of goods and weapons and the reunions of families.”
AND:
“The longest any train has been delayed is 12 hours, when, in the spring, Russia unleashed a fusillade of missiles at railroad infrastructure, taking out a key power source. Strikes on the lines themselves can often be repaired in under 30 minutes. When bridges are hit, trains can be quickly rerouted.”
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18 hours ago, kevinkin said:
Panzer Leader was not nearly as accurate as the follow on PC games like CMBO. If interested, the there are web sites that will show the board game map and units. That's all we had in those days. During the pandemic, board games of all sorts, game back. They are pretty expensive to publish. I think there are web sites where you can request professional looking playing pieces and maps to combine with your own rules to publish your own game. Players still like the look and feel of board games. I can't go back. FOW and PBEM email mean to much and was the holy grail in the late 80s. I still remember my first PBEM in the early 90s using Wargame Construction Set ... Tanks. We used a bulletin board to post saved game files. Those days really paved the way.
WCT Tanks! I have that, and Rifles, too. As a kid though, I had only one nearby friend who also was interested in wargame board games. I had Avalon Hill’s D-Day and Tactical Ops, he had Afrika Korps. But he didn’t have the patience for the time those games took. Years passed. Decades! After years of solo computer sim and wargaming, I found TacOps. Ventured into the mailing list for it, made friends with someone who made scenarios and reviewed games, and we began PBEM exchanges. First time ever dipping a cautious toe into the wild and dangerous online gaming world everyone knew was filled with horrors! Falcon 4 quickly took over, along with OFP, ArmA, Longbow 2, etc. He went on to design scenarios used in Steel Beasts which we play periodically until this day - and eventually was hired by the Army for such matters. I still fly Falcon, DCS, IL-2 online…and weekly ArmA3 sessions with the same group of long time online friends.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
However, accident or not there will be a response. I would not rule out a no-fly zone over Ukraine as it is appropriate for the circumstances. Kinda like taking a toy away from a child after it hurts someone. And if Russia challenges it, well then things are going to get very interesting very quickly.
Agree thoroughly. We are far far from the beginning stages of this war. All parties know a LOT more about one another, than right after the start. It’s important not to excuse the fighting spilling over into NATO nations, with no unmistakable and serious corrective response. No, of course not absurd red herrings - not declaring war, not air strikes in Russia. Those are straw men type arguments. Yes, accidents happen. But when accidents happen, blame is assessed, and penalties imposed. You are the driver, you are responsible and will be accountable for reckless driving, losing control of the vehicle, carelessness. Especially in fatal accidents. Plus, context. This is Russia trying to rain hell on civilians in their homes and workplaces. Russia has a deep responsibility to keep control over their weapons. If they fail, they need more than some harsh words. They killed Poles, in their own country. And we will never really know whether it was an accident. Some US retired military officers on the cable networks tonight have described this as deliberate, deniable, testing of NATO.
So, what makes sense? I agree, no fly zones are a big escalation. NATO would have to cleanse the zone of all Russian SAM and other platforms that could bring down NATO jets - even before any potential ATA encounters. OTOH, long range missiles/artillery. Finally. Just in case of any more accidents. ATACMS. More SAM, defens systems and now. And Russia must pay the family or families who lost loved ones for their losses. Lastly, a clear message about the consequences of any more “accidents”.
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59 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:
Putin WANTS NATO to respond.
SERIOUSLY doubt that speculation stated as fact. Certainly by now both his military chiefs as well as his inner circle realize the enormous disparity between NATO’s huge weapon and troop superiority. Even *without* NATO doing much more than dipping a toe in the conflict, from afar.
Nonetheless, this might be a time to try to layout the big reach of the Forum’s thinking in some sort of framework. One powerful way to see which way the wind is blowing is scenario planning. I value scenario planning because it keeps four possible futures in view at all times, rather than pinning all one’s attention on one preferred (biased in some way) outcome. I hired firms to assist university and national news network in their executive/board planning work. It offers a framework for placing the blizzard of weekly events into relationships and becomes a better…
TEA LEAVES READER!
Scenario planning is simply telling stories about the future. Throwing out all kinds of possibilities, from mundane to outlandish. Like we have here. Ukraine takes back all its territories. Russia collapses into feuding warlord territories. Nuclear war breaks out between NATO and Russia. Or a grinding, endless stalemate develops and the Western Allies get tired of pouring money and equipment into it. Futures are stories. Choose four! And decide what the two biggest uncertainties are that could influence these to actually happen.
These are Critical Uncertainties. They are divergent thinking, brainstorming, imagining. But based on solid knowledge of matters about the question at hand. Like the knowledge base of the vast experience on this forum. They become our “scenario logics”: two axes that differentiate our four stories about possible futures. For example, one axis could be direct NATO/Russian confrontation, from none to total war. The other axis could be Ukraine Winning - Losing. The Uncertainties are key, and in practice would emerge from considered discussion and debate, and then voting for the top two.
The meat is the “critical indicators” for each future:
*How much sophisticated military aid does Ukraine get? *Putin’s political standing. * * *USA election/political outcomes. * * * *Specific battlefield events.Lastly, watch for events - early indicators that put more or less weight on each indicator in one quadrant (future) or another. In this way, we aren’t led by the nose by each day’s news flood. A picture begins to emerge. A story unfolds in more detail A different one fades.
Scenario planning serves as a framework for the plethora of events we see, including the external forces, beyond Ukraine and Russia. What to think of each one, such as China’s Xi and Biden together, warning Russia not to use nuclear weapons. Kherson surrendering. Mobilization. No ATACMS, no Western tanks, Kerch bridge. USA elections. And now, missiles killing civilians in Poland.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by NamEndedAllen
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I do understand those justifications, mostly from long before Russia sorta kinda gave up on winning militarily any time soon and resorted to massive destruction of civilian infrastructure for the winter. The likelihood of Ukraine liberating the fake Republics now Russia says are theirs is at best a very long meatgrinder. During which the civilians continue to suffer and die, as do a lot of the nation’s urban areas. Which is my point. Is there a line Russia could cross in Ukraine atrocities that would decide the Allies to permit Ukraine to knock out power and water in neighboring Russian cities, just as Russia is doing to them. I think your answer is, “No, there is not.” And if so, there is no limit to what Russia will do in the months to come - absent them pulling out in defeat. And with some sort of NON nuclear near equalizer, whether weapon based or NATO guaranteed. Without that, Russia is unlikely to stop pounding Ukraine’s cities into rubble. Even if they were ground down enough to pull back in some or all of the fake republics.
As I hope I made clear, the assistance and training is indeed generous. Vital. And has been going on for these long 9 months - is it that long now? My point is that the actual weapons that would provide proportional responses by Ukraine are denied. The war-winning weaponry is denied. We already debated the nuke issue into a black hole of infinite regression here. If Ukraine tries to take Crimea for instance. But my question remains, whether or not there IS anything that will move the USA and Europe to let Russia know unmistakably that Ukraine can and will respond IN KIND, short of bombing Moscow. We talk a lot about the morality and ethics required of Ukraine while defending their country against an enemy with none. In my opinion we are nearing or at a major question about our own morality and ethics.
Also, the corollary at least to your answer, “No”, is do you really think Russia is going to attack NATO? With whatever troops remain in their increasingly bare cupboard? Pretty sure THAT would be over mighty quick. Start throwing nukes around, knowing that is The End? Personally, I think Russian rule by Putin collapses long before either of those would ever begin to see the light of day. Other opinions clearly vary.