NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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I thought we had been beating the nuke policy donkey to a thin bloody but necessarily undecided pulp. Perhaps this USA statement will at least reassure some - and possibly frighten others. Here is Jake Sullivan:
“US national security adviser says: ‘Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia’
“We have communicated directly, privately and at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the US and our allies will respond decisively, and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail,” Sullivan told CBS’s Face The Nation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan
And the other major USA news sources including NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, and the internet sites like the Hill, Bloomberg, Newsweek. FOX strangely led by saying Sullivan was unsure about designating Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.President Joe Biden’s administration has privately told the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine would have “catastrophic consequences” for Russia, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his warnings of a nuclear threat last week as he mobilized hundreds of thousands of reservists after Ukrainian forces recaptured a swath of Russian-occupied territory. Those nuclear threats are “a matter that we have to take deadly seriously,” Sullivan said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.
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5 hours ago, billbindc said:
Douglas MacGregor is a hack, an appeaser and an all around toerag. Print that article off and use it as toilet paper. It's about what it's worth.
And with that, off to happy hour. Cheers.
Insult to toilet paper. Fine softwood trees died for that vital product! His opinions…
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5 hours ago, dan/california said:
Anyone want to give odds these poor serfs, and they really might as well BE serfs, show up at the front in summer uniforms? just in time for some nice cold fall rains? Of course I am optimistically assuming they will have any uniforms at all...
“A mob with guns”.
iirc, that was a ret. USA General’s assessment of the Russian Army much earlier in this debacle. -
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:
the entire post-conflict thing is something to unpack, but we need to get there first.
Indeed! Apart from the Capt’s range of more nuanced post war scenarios and the more aggressive varied positions here, the battlefield has a big vote. Right now, it looks as if Ukraine is making concerted efforts to be holding a big time Royal straight flush at the negotiation table. They and/or Russia and their mutual interlocutors may already be quietly speaking about the shape and size of that table. But won’t the scale and impact of Ukraine’s battlefield victories be the loudest voice? (assuming that the near unanimous opinion here that Russia will not be making a Hail Mary game-ending drive).
What we don’t know is how and when Ukraine’s counter-offensives will culminate. Until then our discussions here are largely academic, and need not boil over. Far too much has already been spilled on the battlefield. My opinion, worth less than you paid for it is that Ukraine has the deciding vote on when open negotiations can start, although certainly not without advice from the Allies. IIRC, fighting continued during drawn out negotiations between North Vietnam and the USA. So both may be carried out in parallel. The currently winning side needn’t call a cease fire until it is good and ready. Does Ukraine definitely see 2014 “borders” as that time? Don’t know.
if settlements were made only by the pure light of reason, perhaps the abstractions of fully rational outcomes would always be the result. Then the Capt’s painstakingly measured best outcome and future projections might somehow come about - AND be stable. Bitterly fought WWI did not end that way. But an unconditional WWII type surrender by Russia is not in the cards, even if they withdrew their various forces. Is there a plausible version though? Collapse appears to be the only Walk Off scenario. And most here see that as either a black hole of misery and nukes, or an even worse replacement than Putin at the helm. Again the Capt has an off-ramp vision of a terrible dictator of a rather broken state, but a sorta kinda tame enough one that we could “ manage” and do business with. Maybe that’s the best we could *reasonably* hope for. Stable? Well, how long did Putin take before beginning to subvert, invade and reduce Russia’s neighboring countries?
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13 hours ago, dan/california said:
Well when we want his friend at CGSC to turn off the cloaking device and join the discussion it behooves us to be nice to him...
I tried. Concerns about sorting the contradictory thicket of work rules about posting on social media have already ended his prolific sim and other related internet articles from ten or fifteen years ago. Which I reluctantly admitted weren’t awful. Even tried a threat that Aragorn and LongLeftFlank might pay him a persuasive “visit”. He remains unmoved. Honestly, it’s too bad. He has experience pertaining to this thread that would be of interest.
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
Well when we want his friend at CGSC to turn off the cloaking device and join the discussion it behooves us to be nice to him...
He does jealously guard that cloaking device. But I will discuss the matter with him, calmly and judiciously. And when that doesn’t work…
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
You Eagles fans are... dedicated. Yes, that's the word I have very carefully chosen to use.
Although a comparatively small thing in comparison to your friend's heroism, honoring him with your Forum name is quite touching. Thank you for sharing.
Steve
Steve, thank you for both your - carefully chosen words! - and your kind welcome. I had intended a more conventional first post but red lines are useless if they are not observed! But in all seriousness, thank you Steve for your even-handed oversight and your always thoughtful, insightful observations. I’m sure most of us have seen other beloved sim forums blown to kingdom come. Gone, due to escalating fire fights. Which also means much gratitude to all the far flung members here. You have somehow, someway managed to conduct some times heated debates and discussions of profound import (Philly vs Dallas, for example) with world class, possibly world beating respectfulness.
Thank you all for the education and community. I have managed to convert at least one instructor at the CGSC into a CMBS “How Hot” thread addict.
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4 hours ago, sburke said:
Hold the phone.... as an Eagles fan, born and raised in Philly (back me up here @BFCElvis) I'm okay with Dallas.
As one who has held his tongue reading EVERY SINGLE PAGE thru 1,40freaking2 of this unprecedented and now legendary thread - despite all the numerous assertions with no evidence except (well informed) opinions about the past…and despite the important and profound debates on morality and ethical conduct during and after war…and the demonstrated courage and sacrifice of a nation standing up to one of the all time biggest bullies in history…and the terrific analyses of the ebb and flow of the front lines…and the historical and cultural explanations…all without daring to stick my only neck out - THIS CROSSED THE RED LINE! Loyalty DEMANDS solidarity!
FLY, EAGLES, FLY! COWBOYS, BYE BYE!
PS forum name is in honor of my first childhood best friend, who refused to abandon a downed severely wounded black ops pilot as time ran out on a mission up North. Cost him dearly the rest of his life - ended too soon. Clear skies, Allen. Never forgotten.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by NamEndedAllen
Yes, agreed. He was warned. About conventionally invading a non-NATO country. However those warnings were about sanctions and sending modern *defensive* weapons to Ukraine. Light years away from warning about “catastrophic” consequences that can in no way be assumed not just by Putin, but by his military and civilian leadership that this time they would not face the full force of the military arrayed against Russia. And I imagine the private and back channel communications we know have taken place to have been much less diplomatic. And couched in the context of crossing the one single red line that *all * the powers that be have insisted not be crossed.
Here in the cheap seats, we cannot know the final decision policy of Washington or the Allies. But I would bet on general agreement that the punishment for using a nuclear weapon in anger today must be so clearly “catastrophic” for the attacker that other nations watching with interest have zero doubt about just how very very bad an idea that would be. In fact, one could imagine the core message to Russia:being just that: We are so sorry. This isn’t a civilized, gentlemanly proportional response situation. Understand, this is nothing personal. It’s just not good for business. Which you won’t be in any longer. Because this will not stand.
Here in the cheap seats, I realize this is just an opinion, one without the weight and responsibility that weigh on those who must make such a monumental decision.