Quick173

The help of our ancestors. It's became knowingly, several days ago Russian forward groups, searching the ways couldn't overcome ancient Serpent Ramparts (ukr. Zmiyevi valy) near Bilihorodka village,west from Kyiv. Theese ramparts were built in 10-11th centuries against steppe nomads attacks on the base of more early fortifiacations.
They girds Kyiv outskirts from the west to southern east in several lines. This was huge alot of work in that times. Now many of them plowed up, but theese save itself and came useful again since 1000 years
   

So we are probably overdue on a discussion on what is going on at the tactical level.  I have held off trying to do an analysis because things were simply too turbulent to draw any real conclusions, still are in fact.  However, I  will offer a hypothesis of what I think is occurring and we can try and go from there.
In the west we have been watching these "Russian wars" with a lot of interest over the last 8 years. The reason for this is that we are all very paranoid of becoming a 21st century version of the WW1 generals - discovering on the battlefield that our doctrine has become completely obsolete.  In WWI at the tactical level it was machine guns and fast firing artillery at long ranges, at the operational and strategic it was railways, telegraph wires and canned food preservation.  They all added up to totally different war than anyone was expecting that included the end of some pretty major stuff like cavalry.
So in this war we have all been watching and scratching our heads as to "what just happened?"  At the tactical level back in 2014, and was confirmed in the short Azer-Armenian war, that something had changed.  The Russians had linked UAVs and massed fires at the tactical level, the Azerbaijanians mimicked this in 2020, and the effect was to be able to crush massed enemy armor formations over the horizon and then move in mechanized forces for what was essentially a "sweep up" close battle.  Everyone was expecting the same for this war.
The Ukrainians, being at the receiving end in 2014 have likely figured out that playing by the old rulebook will not work.  So my hypothesis is 1) the Russians have been trying to follow their doctrine of long range Find, Mass Fires Fix/Attrit and Heavy Close clean up to Finish, but 2) The Ukrainians have adopted tactics that negate #1.
The evidence for #1 is the fact that the Russians have appeared to stick with the BTG which is a concept with massed fires at the tactical level baked-in:
  
(https://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/images/btg-image01.jpg|||Battalion Tactical Group)
In western doctrine a BG will have integral mortars and likely a Arty Bn in close support.  The Russians added 6 x MLRS to this mix and if you look at Soviet doctrine, MLRS are normally at Regimental/Div level.  This matched what we saw in the field in 2014 and 2020 very closely.
The evidence for #2 is all over social media.  The Ukrainians, learning quickly from 2014, look like they have dis-aggregated. More importantly and to the point, they have largely abandoned defensive mass but have not lost lethality.  I think the Ukrainians are still forming mass for offensive actions but the defensive is a lot of small units dispersed all over the place with weapon systems that are light, portable and have really extended range and reach; they have become the swarm the Russians are trying to hit with a shotgun.  Further, by dis-aggregating the Ukrainians look like they have turned some ideas about maneuver on its head.  Rear areas are not not "rear" anymore, it is all FEBA because small units with next gen ATGMs are cutting Russian logistics to pieces, making all the Russian mass heavily dislocated (or perhaps contributing to Russian mess ups).
We spend a lot of time slagging Russian failures, and there are quite a few and well earned, but we should also keep an eye on Ukrainian victories, because they might very well be happening on their own merits and not all on Russian screw ups.  For example, we may be seeing a lot of abandoned Russian MBTs because there are no refueling or recovery assets left due to Ukrainians adopting a new path very effectively.
So what?  Well the question is, "are we seeing an anomaly or trend?"  As we look over at our own heavy steel, we have to ask ourselves "what if our next opponent looks and fights like the Ukrainians and not the Russians?"   The answer to that question may be a blip in military force development but is also may be a signpost much in the same way 1914 was because the technology that enables the Ukrainian tactics is accelerating - smart, very long range autonomous systems that can overwhelm current mechanized protection/shield at a system level.  
Personally, I think it is too soon to call it.  There may be times ahead where mass demonstrates it merits and they may be decisive; however, it is all worth watching closely because none of us want to the a "horse cavalry commander" in the next war. 

Situation on Donbas still very hard for our troops.
- Russian and DNR forces launched assault of important Avdiivka town. Since the night they heavy bombarded and shelled the town and APU positions around. Reportedly our troops shot down a jet two hours ago
- Heavy clashes around Vuhledar town. Units of 53rd mech.brigade withdrew there from Volnovakha, but Russians and DNR forces have big personnel superiority. Also right flank of Russian southerth group (58th Army) is advancing from the left bank of Dnieper in NE direction. Simultainously Russians trying to crush our defense  in Izium area to move in southern direction on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. If this two groups will meet, our Donbas group can be encircled.
- Russians hit with a missile Karachun hill in Kramatorsk to disable TV tower. Outskirts od Sloviansk was bombed. Reportedly Su-34 was shot down yesterday over Kramatorsk.
- In Luhansk oblast Russians are heavy shelling, bombing and assaulting Siverodonetsk city. But looks like on this direcion mostly LNR troops involved with Russian air and arty support and all waves of this zomby-rush  sucсed to repel for now.
- Mariupol. Despite the desperate situation, our troops still stand and even partially pushed out enemy form some eastern city blocks. Reportedly just Azov claimed they destroyed for last day 6 tanks, 2 BTRs, 1 Tigr and captured 12 Russians. 
On the photo KORD special police serviceman guards captured Russians in Mariupol

This can work during column passes or until Russians completely keep the ground and rarely works in enemy's rear on occupied territories. In Kyiv oblast occupied villages you CAN'T go out from your house if Russians stay there. You have a risk to be shot out immediately. In occupied villages Russians often take away the phones from a locals. Not only for security reasons, but just because they want to rob. But even if you was a lucky and kept your phone, you should be real partisan to walk in unknown place to search Russian troops. If some in the forest Russian command center of SAM battery are deployed, you can't walk there and make a shot for FB. Command centers are guarded. You even can't transmit your picture if you will lucky to sneak and make a shot, because often GSM netwok is jammed. 
So, uncovering of command centers is a work of our SIGINT, recons and SOFs. Civilians via FB make great work too, but to say all recon work is making farmers with the phones is deeply mistakingly. 

That's not a drone - that's a Klingon bird of Prey model.

Note this footage is taken in this location. To some of you it might look familiar: That is the exact location of the first Ukrainian scenario. Even the little grass patches in the fuel station are the same.

War on the Rocks podcast: A pretty fair review of the opening few days, and a warning that Russia may have had setbacks but still has considerable reserves and is likely to adapt etc. Also seem to be winning in the south.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

Russian forces retreating around Kyiv
... But despite this I'm hearing how our artillery not far from my house is continuing to fire at them

If you haven't already had a look, the wikipedia maps of the conflict are quite interesting. They get updated often and you're able to see the direction, size and width of the penetrations a lot more clearly than lieveuamaps for example. I don't know how accurate this is of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
I get Glantz's flashbacks poring over these. Looking away from Kyiv at what appears to be secondary thrusts, it is hard to tell obviously how deep some of these are going to go, whether they are going to stall or not. They very well might go nowhere or not deep enough to achieve anything. But I have looked at enough operational east front wwii map to know that sometimes an offensive appeared to be going nowhere the first couple of days, only to develop much faster suddenly. Different conflict and era of course.

This is BS.  Biden specifically offered to negotiate on arms control, which would include strategic weapons deployments and basing.  That is not what Putin demanded.  Putin demanded Ukraine be left open to attack by Russia if Putin deems it desirable. No defenses. No security agreements.
This is not about NATO defensive security pact. It is about having a successful, non-authoritarian Little Brother right on the borders with Big Brother.

The Eighty-Third to Eighty-Fifth Minutes
KG Leino -  Die Mitte
No action on the objective. The SPWs have pulled back in case of an incoming barrage but it never materialises.

Jean is watching the treeline for any signs of a counter-attack. He's getting impatient.

No attack comes so 1 Zug redeploy onto the hill that was KT1 and will probe forward to get eyes on the trees. Hans regrets dropping that cigarette now, his gentleman's region is freezing!
They should be safe from the location of his tank(s) from this angle.

T1 was kept back in case of a counter-attack but as it looks like there's not going to be one he sets off to join KG Perala on the right. The HQ Tiger is backing up to join 1 Zug on the hill.

Jean has had enough, he wants to spill some red blood so he starts inching forward to get a better view of something to shoot. Anything to shoot.

KG Koskela - die Linke
The advance continues unopposed.

2 Ko. in their SPWs draw level with the trees without incident.

Then they start spotting infantry moving around in there. First a fireteam running toward the road.

Then another fireteam lying at the side of the road facing in the other direction (we'll come back to these guys further down).

Then an HQ unit lying not far from the burning T34.

Finally we spot another fireteam heading toward the road. Good job I kept the vehicles buttoned.

A DP gunner lets a couple of bursts loose but his shots fly high. These are the only shots that they take at my forces.

Before we know it the SPWs are past the danger zone.
P2 halted and rotated his turret to the rear to cover their advance.

He spots the team lying facing the wrong way and decides to inflict some pain, 75mm style.

I also ordered the 251/17 from 1 Zug to area fire the trees, forgetting that that isn't actually a turret on that thing he starts to rotate...ever....so....slowly. I hold my breath.
But he makes it and lets loose some shells.

Then he spots another fireteam hunting through the woods.

It's time to get out of here, as he's facing the other way I reverse him (as I can't go through the pain of watching him rotate again) as the T34 cooks off, spraying hot lead into the trees.

As he's backing away yet more contacts are seen heading East, up the treeline and not towards the road. I wonder where he's sending them?

Then, one of the things I was fearful of happens. 2 Zug's last remaining SPW bogs and then immobilises with a full passenger compartment as the rest of the Kompanie go on their merry way. Damn.
I'm going to have to get these out of their vehicle and into 1 Zug's and the Kompanie HQ vehicles. P2 will have to come back to provide covering fire. Not ideal.
What will happen? Will they survive? Will a red tide be unleashed from the trees and mow them down or will the sight of the big cat scare them off? (cue dramatic music)

KG Perala - das Recht
2/1 continue to push up through the scrub, scouting the way ahead. Still no reaction.

The StuG repositions over to the right to cover the advance of the rest of 3 Kompanie.

The scouts are almost at the end of the scrub and into open country.

SITMAP

That went about as well as I could hope for on the left, no armour ambush (as yet) and no heavy AT weapons either. 2 Zug now have no vehicles left with that immobilisation but I plan to offload 1 Zug at SCHWARZ and continue the attack with 2 Zug so they can use their vehicles.
I'll give it a couple more minutes before I commence the attack on the forces in the middle to give the forces on the right time to advance a bit further. It's very slow going for the SPWs through the scrub so it's going to take a while to get them through. Hopefully whatever I do in the middle will convince him to commit the forces at the farm on the right to help out. We'll see.
MMM