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Maquisard manqué

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  1. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    oops, did I say that with my outside voice?
     
    Belarus TV Guest Hits Back After Being Told Country Is 'Part of Russia' (msn.com)
  2. Like
    Maquisard manqué got a reaction from Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’d largely agree with the US - Russia bits but the US - EU stuff is pretty off the wall. A peaceful and stronger EU is  best for the US, they’re partners and share the burden (ideally!) of the current/US economic and political order (rules based system as some call it, but it’s not like others don’t have rules…).
  3. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well primarily the one orchestrating the UA operations and funding with billions of aid, US. UK and the rest european countries follow. 
  4. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So, to be clear, you are advocating emptying all the silos and all the boomers into Russia?
    Jeepers, this is "we had to burn the village to save it" taken to a whole new level.
  5. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    According to Russian propagandists. Ukraine successfully uses the tactics of small mobile groups in jeeps to operate behind Russian lines
  6. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I challenge you to back up this assertion with credible documentary sources beyond your 'chat' group.  If not, you are entirely sh*tposting at this point.
  7. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ah, well now this is a different story.  This is Russia and separatist abandoning democratic process and turning to violence because they did not like the answer...not cool.
    My point on "clear" is that there it was unclear as to the level of separatist sentiment in the region, I think you answered that; clearly a section of the population within the Donbass region are not "all in" with the Ukrainian union.  I suspect we would find the same in Crimea.
    So what does Ukraine do when it re-takes these regions, assuming Russia fall all the way back and is no longer a real factor?
    We have been debating legitimacy a lot and frankly I do not know if the cause of the separatist was or is legitimate, I am not even sure we on the outside have the right to judge - how they went about trying to gain freedom, or Russian involvement, was clearly not legitimate.
    I am very concerned about any suggestion that the peoples of the Donbass or Crimea, who were separatists or even served in the LNR/DNR forces are somehow not entitled to democratic rights and freedoms as any Ukrainian citizens, not that I think that is what most of us are suggesting.  I think there are a lot of grey areas here, and we should not dismiss a peoples free choice lightly - even the ones we really do not like.
    I am very concerned about side-stepping or sweeping the issue aside when we discuss end-states for this war.
    I have to say this entire discussion has gotten me really thinking about post-conflict and the challenges of nation building, which are muscles I have not used in some time.
  8. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    “Prior to the Revolution of Dignity, the politics of the region were dominated by the pro-Russian Party of Regions, which gained about 50% of Donbas votes in the 2008 Ukrainian parliamentary election. Prominent members of that party, such as former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, were from the Donbas.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas
    I have zero doubt there was Russian influence, however, I would say the issue is far from clear.  You and I do not need to see a “legitimate right” for these regions to explore separation - it is implied within the framework of a modern free democracy.  Or are we selling something else?
    In the end this is not a debate about whether or not these regions have the ‘right’ or not, it is about their freedom to chose to do so.  If you are saying that they are not entitled to this because…well why are you saying they do not have that right?  What is a “legitimate right” then?  And who gets to determine that?  If the majority of people in this region after reintegration want to explore separation are you proposing a prison state where that option is removed?  The only thing I have heard is that is may not be allowed in the Ukrainian constitution; but that is a slippery slope post-conflict.
    In fact if they are not afforded that right, is not Ukraine risking another civil conflict in the future?
     
  9. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have never found officers that central to the process 😀.  Worse, NCOs, which they never had a strong corps of to begin with.
    I honestly do not have much sympathy for Russia left in me.  But those poor kids - yes kraze we know that they sat back and let this happen, but these ones are being dragged onto the battlefield - are going to die in droves come winter, if they make it that far.
  10. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, agreed. But I guess that’s why blind faith in “the right thing” happening doesn’t seem wise or appropriate, however great Zelensky and his govt has been so far.
    Think the thread has already treated the discomfort of those having taken RU cash, which may remain touchy and I’m happy not to return to!
  11. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Regarding UA specifically, they will have to get all this stuff right before they join. I can imagine some shortcuts being taken in economic sphere perhaps, or in some minutiae of the law, but the basics have to be there.
    Speaking more broadly, I think we are back to the inherent weakness of democracy as such, namely our ability to vote in some kind of Austrian painter. In essence I don't see how we could save ourselves from that, apart from being a decent people and society. And, as a declared optimist, I think it works pretty good for the West as a whole, with some notable exceptions (Poland included lately ).
    One positive thought for the near future I think (partially of the tinfoil kind) is that most of greatest insults to the democratic system we chose lately (including Trump, Brexit party, Orban, perhaps even PiS in Poland) were to a degree an effect of RU meddling in our affairs. I don't see how this continue in the future, I'm sure that anybody that can be even remotely connected to Russia will be burned from the get go, at least in general. And especially in CEE - any RU connections are lava around here lately.
     

     
  12. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure the EU has managed to avoid Hungary or Poland’s slide away from democratic liberty. What would make Ukraine different? Tbh the fact Ukraine has currently such a long way to go to acceding to the EU is almost all about it’s systems of governance and their robustness (or lack of) to corrosion/corruption. So I’m not sure there’s a lot of blind faith in Ukraine…
    Zelensky and his govt have impressed, but what if the next lot are different?
     
    NATO membership is in some ways much simpler. Who are your troops going to fight and how reliable are they? How much do we need you? (Why yes please join us Turkey)
  13. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And a new pair of underpants hopefully!
  14. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, I think that just about wraps up this topic, so glad we could come to rational common ground.  I am pretty sure the Canadian government will find and fleece me in my tax bracket over this, as they have demonstrated so much acumen to do, but so be it.
    You guys in the "non-negotiable" camp do you, I hope maybe you found a few things to think about and mull over, I know I did - the entire post-conflict thing is something to unpack, but we need to get there first.
     
  15. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So once retaken you are locked in?  You either have to flee or live under a constitution that does not allow for freedom to chose to be another nation or state?  And as you note, democracy of any kind should not be allowed for some period of time because of Russian war crimes?
    How are these un-citizens going to be represented?  Will they have equal representation by, unelected/appointed officials because of your first assertation?  Are they going to be taxed?  Where will they sit in the reconstruction priority, how will you ensure that they are not discriminated against because they stayed in these regions during occupation - hell a not so small portion were born under that condition.
    So now you may have a constitutional crisis on your hands?  Or you simply ignore the will of a significant portion of the population?  Do you drive them out...that ought to sell well in the west.
     
  16. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Faith, belief" - you guys toss these around like they are hard truths and it is starting to irritate.  Second is the black and white calculus that anyone does not align with as "defeatists etc".
    We are not investing billions, in the middle of post-pandemic recession, and risking a slow roll towards nuclear Armageddon because we have "faith and hope" that anyone will "do the right thing" - a concept we cannot even agree on internally.
    We are doing it because of what we know.  We know Russia cannot win this war and we know Ukraine cannot lose the peace.  A significant portion of the populations of the west don't have faith in their own governments, let alone one 7-time zones away.
    I honestly have watched the Ukrainian government steer a brilliant narrative, a few missteps but rock solid.  But Reconstruction/Post Conflict is like wedding - everyone loses their freaking minds!
    You want to propose a non-negotiable push to the pre-2014 borders, then you need to answer the question of how to deal with those regions who have been outside of Ukraine for 8 years, because that post-game show directly impacts what we know.   
     
  17. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not suggesting anything of the sort.  I am asking "FancyCat" how he thinks post-conflict will go down post-conflict.
    Also, I am not going to subscribe to "how dare you that is internal business" when we stand as significant stakeholders in this conflict and post-conflict.  
    Of course, I do not think Ukraine will behave as the Russians, they have already demonstrated this in the prosecution of this war.  However, in all those past experiences the narrative of "just gives us the money and stay out of our business" does not fly, and will not fly for this war.  The west is going to make a long-term commitment to Ukraine (we had better) and Ukraine will need to make a reciprocal commitment back, that very much includes what we are talking about.
    Once again, you do not have to like it or even listen to me, but I will bet a c-note that these sorts conversations are happening in the halls of power in the west right now.
  18. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Whoa, so you are saying that because of Russian war crimes, which absolutely no one is disagreeing with, democratic rights will be denied to the citizens of these regions?  Indefinitely, it kind of sounds like you are promoting here, or at least a generation or two?
    Donbass and Crimea cannot have democracy because Russia killed off all the true-Ukrainians?
    So instead of Ukrainians being oppressed by Russians, we are trading people who see themselves as Russian being oppressed by Ukrainians?  
    And we are back to Afghanistan...
    I honestly hope and strongly believe that the grown ups in Kyiv do not agree with what I think you are suggesting in the least, at least based on how well they have managed this war and its narratives so far.
    I do hope you can see my point that this a lot more complicated than win/loss, particularly when you tie those to lines on a map.  I honestly hope and pray that justice is served to the Russians responsible for these crimes and this war are brought to account.  I also strongly hope that as we look to investing hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine we will get a fully modern democratic partner that quickly and fairly ensures all its citizens are fully enfranchised and protected by its laws.  I fervently hope that the post-conflict phase sees reconciliation and, if need be, realignments that reflect the will of the people - all done with the support of the international community.
    Here is the crazy thing about war, once the shooting stops, the hard part really begins.
     
  19. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I agree, obviously.
    "Some" posters here do not, and are pushing hard for collective guilt and collective punishment.
    You see the issue now?
  20. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm not angry with him. I think he's a foolish kid who knows he has nothing interesting to say, so is trying to get attention by saying outlandish stuff. In a way it's kinda cute.
    But it's also wrong. All wars end. This war will end, and at the end of this war Ukraine and Russia will still be neighbours sharing about 2,000km of border. Think about what that means for a while. And as you're doing that consider similar examples like France and Germany, Poland and Germany, the Balkans generally, Israel and everybody, and which examples provide for actual long term peace and stability.
  21. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I just did. Using posts that are less than a day old. You may not see it, but I do, and I am not alone there.
  22. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Do you live in a Western country?
     

  23. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Personally I feel sort of the same as both of you.
    The line is imo when you generalize whole people as rapists by blood / barbarics. And especially if you then include all Arabs in it and say that Israel is tackling the root problem as a direct reply to someone mentioning killing children / reporters.
    And I'll gladly take vacation to call out such statements.
    Anyway I've said what I needed I'll leave it at that. 
  24. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Kraze has been posting stuff like this since the beginning of the thread. He hasn't received any warning, although in the written official rules here, it is cleary stated as hate speech and a reason to ban someone. On the contrary his posts often get multiple upvotes. Yes, the best war forum on the net... 
  25. Upvote
    Maquisard manqué reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    he did say it. Look back at what he said. Israel fixing the root cause by killing all arabs.
    The thin veil he has kept up to hide his morbid fantasies slipped a bit.
    Anyway I'm done with the subject I just don't like reading extremist stuff if he keeps that for other websites that would be great.
     
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