Zeleban

A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
“Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
"We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
 

A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
“Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
"We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
 

A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
“Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
"We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
 

The key question is whether the people of France and Germany, as well as other NATO countries, will be ready to shed their blood for a long time for these small Baltic countries in the east. It doesn't look like NATO countries are preparing for a major war. Perhaps they hope that it will be possible to reach an agreement with Putin? I know one president who also thought so; his name is Volodymyr Zelensky. And his opinion on this issue has changed dramatically

Many Ukrainians criticize our generals. However, our military leadership is only capable of conducting operations at the level at which it is possible for them
1. Training of their subordinate officers and soldiers.
2 Possibilities for the exchange and processing of information by headquarters
3. And of course, the level of supply with everything necessary
Criticizing leadership is the favorite pastime of the Ukrainian people. There is a funny opinion that fate is unfair to Ukrainians and constantly appoints cunning and self-interested leaders to govern them. But my opinion is that every nation has exactly the leaders it deserves. Ukrainian commanders have exactly the level of competence, material support and communications that they were able to provide during 8 years of preparation for a big war. We have had enough time to carry out reforms...

I have always considered Tatarigami one of the most valuable sources of information about this war. Until I read his statement that Bakhmut did not need to be held, but instead had to retreat to more “advantageous positions.” If it were not for the retention of Bakhmut, then who knows where our positions would be now. Near Slovyansk or to the west of it?
Now the opposition to Zelensky media is promoting the assertion that the reason for the failure of the Zaporozhye offensive lies in the retention of Bakhmut. They say the reserves necessary for the summer offensive were spent there. Based on this logic, in March 2022 we needed to leave Kharkov, Kiev, Chernigov and Sumi. After all, the defense of these cities was also very bloody.

Yes, despite all the assurances of the West, a paradoxical situation is emerging when Western countries help Russia and not Ukraine. Even more than that, Western countries are reducing aid to Ukraine, while funding for Russia is only increasing.

Yes, despite all the assurances of the West, a paradoxical situation is emerging when Western countries help Russia and not Ukraine. Even more than that, Western countries are reducing aid to Ukraine, while funding for Russia is only increasing.

I would like this were first signs of decomposition in Russian army like in 1917, but anyway this is just single incidents...
For huge number of Russian citizens from poor regions army is single opportunity to earn enormous money, or maintain own familiy in case of own death and just to feel himself at last real hero, who fights agaisnt "world evil" in face of West. All as according to Dostoyevskiy "Am I amimal trembling or I have a right?". Despite on hidden mobilization, many of Russian recruits sign contracts by own will. Even enlistment centers "highly recommended" to sign contract, many of people can't stand not only against offered problems in case of refusal , but also against temptation of big money. 
If you sign a contract you get 195 000 RU (1900$ ) at one time and 204 000 RU (2080$) monthly for private and 242 000 RU (2470$) for junior officer. Russian statistic gets 40 000 RU as average monthly salary along the country, but real situation can differ significantly for Moscow oblast and Buriatiya or Dagestan. Fot comparison, UKR soldiers on frontline receive 100 000 UAH (2700$) and 30 000 UAH in rear (790$) monthly - it's not a big difference. For a death a family of fallen serviceman in Russia receives 12.4 millions RU (126500$) and in Ukraine 15 millions (405000$). For wounding - 3 millions RU (30612$) in Russia and from 134 000 (3600$) UAH to 1,07 million UAH (29000$) in Ukraine
Until Russia will have a milliards from oil, chemical, agricultural, metal, gold export - to this time they will have a money to pay to own orc hordes, who will go to army with pleasure to assert themselves in own brutality, violance and robbery, to gain money, honor and social lift. But here need a political will of West, indeed we have "busines as usual" in many cases
Russia income of oil export have been raising since July:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/western-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-not-working?srnd=europe-politics
 
 

Video of UKR Su-25 sortie. Aircraft carries four S-25OFM unguided missiles each with 20 kg of HE in warhead and 4000 m of range. What is unusual here is a manner of attack - pilot launched missiles in two strafes from light diving instead to shoot all them in one salvo with tossing as "Grad-style".
 

Training of mobile groups - hunters of "Shaheds". It is interesting to note that, as the fighter states in the video, the ZPU-2 anti-aircraft guns on pickup trucks sent by the Czech Republic have thermal imaging sights, which greatly simplifies aiming. Also spotted were pickup trucks with MG-3 machine guns installed in their bodies and, of course, improvised twin installations of Maxim 1910 machine guns.

Training of mobile groups - hunters of "Shaheds". It is interesting to note that, as the fighter states in the video, the ZPU-2 anti-aircraft guns on pickup trucks sent by the Czech Republic have thermal imaging sights, which greatly simplifies aiming. Also spotted were pickup trucks with MG-3 machine guns installed in their bodies and, of course, improvised twin installations of Maxim 1910 machine guns.

Training of mobile groups - hunters of "Shaheds". It is interesting to note that, as the fighter states in the video, the ZPU-2 anti-aircraft guns on pickup trucks sent by the Czech Republic have thermal imaging sights, which greatly simplifies aiming. Also spotted were pickup trucks with MG-3 machine guns installed in their bodies and, of course, improvised twin installations of Maxim 1910 machine guns.

President Zelenskyy thanks Finland for its support.

It is curious how events would have developed if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had attacked Zaporozhye exclusively in bad weather. I think the losses would be significantly lower Lancets have terrible optics. FPV drones also

Training of mobile groups - hunters of "Shaheds". It is interesting to note that, as the fighter states in the video, the ZPU-2 anti-aircraft guns on pickup trucks sent by the Czech Republic have thermal imaging sights, which greatly simplifies aiming. Also spotted were pickup trucks with MG-3 machine guns installed in their bodies and, of course, improvised twin installations of Maxim 1910 machine guns.

The Netherlands continues to impress.
Source: Netherlands to provide extra €2 bn in military aid for Ukraine in 2024 (EuromaidanPress)

On one fine day, I was concussed when an enemy shell exploded literally a meter from a hole into which I jumped at the last moment. Then another stone flew into my ribs and I thought with relief that now I was wounded and would go to rest.
              But it was just a stone, and all I got was a very bad headache for the next few months. When the very active phase of the assault ended, the service was established, then I finally transferred to Petrichenko's gang to fly the Mavic. How it was and what it cost is a separate story.
              It was there that we encountered the moment when the enemy left Kherson. Yes, the enemy left in November. But in my opinion, these were the first steps towards them leaving. In the next thread, I will tell how they left, how we entered the villages, how I climbed the enemy's positions and how I almost died.
              Were there any wild moments? So. Were there any problems? So. But let me tell you about them after the war. Not to go storming Pisky now.
 
 

And finally, assessments of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the part of the enemy.
Several Russian publics, more or less adequate (and therefore not very well known “in their own family”), quite unanimously came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had planned, organized and worked out their actions through the Dnieper in advance. I won’t point them out now, so as not to advertise the enemy, but I will point out that they argued their conclusions quite adequately:
- The Russians were unpleasantly surprised by the speed and efficiency of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units, especially in the area of increasing their efforts. “First, 2-3 sabotage groups are found there, then they form a platoon, and after a couple of days, when they have gained a foothold, they begin to transport mortars there and a company already appears there, and so on.”
- Also, they came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian command had found an opportunity, in some still unknown way, to ensure the replenishment of their advanced units and organize their logistical support, in sufficient quantities and with appropriate efficiency (otherwise the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not have been able to conduct intensive combat operations on the bridgeheads for a more or less long period of time, and they, in addition, manage to expand them).
- It is also obvious that the width along the front and the main areas and directions of active actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “through the Dnieper” were not chosen at all by chance. They are clearly tied to the nature of the terrain, the composition and operational formation of Russian troops, even the water level and the most successful and convenient places for landing and hidden advance in the floodplain are taken into account. The Russians come to the conclusion that they are dealing with a carefully planned and prepared, especially in the field of intelligence, operation to seize and hold bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper. Although, of course, they believe that by “restoring order” and “concentrating efforts” they have a significant chance of eliminating them.

For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that I already wrote that from the 7th Airborne Division in this direction, until recently there were essentially only three battalions (171st separate air assault battalion, 104th separate tank battalion and 162nd separate reconnaissance battalion). The main forces of the division (3 of its air assault regiments) were, at one time, transferred “near Verbovoe” to take part in flank counterattacks against the advancing Ukrainian group.
Well, now, given the fact that with the “flank counterattacks” in the Tokmak direction, nothing meaningful happened anyway, and the Ukrainian marines staged a fatal counter-strike for the Russian motorized rifles and mobs in the Dnieper floodplains, Monsieur Teplinsky clearly demanded from his “senior commanders” return this formation of airborne troops “back” to him. Let me remind you that the regular position of this general is commander of the airborne troops of the Russian Federation.
However, the fact is that the Russian command is now unable to pull out the main forces of the 7th Airborne Division from under Verbovoy in the Tokmak direction “purely physically.” The division's 108th and 247th air assault regiments are closely involved in the fighting. And the 56th Airborne Regiment, which has already been reorganized “almost anew” 2 times, can send “to Teplinsky” right now no more than 2 of its battalions. Although, probably, “a little later,” this Feodosian rabble will go to the Dnieper in full force (if it hasn’t already).
As for the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 2 of its motorized rifle regiments are ALREADY involved - the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment is still unsuccessfully trying to push our marines back from Krynki to the flooded areas, and the 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment is probably included in the second echelon of the tactical group operating along the line Peschanka - Podstepnoe, north of the village of Radensk, somewhere southwest of the village of Chelburda. At least one small infantry regiment and another tank regiment (tp) of this division are also “roaming somewhere.”
A month ago there was information about the tank regiment that it was continuing to be “reformed” in northern Crimea, and the motorized rifle regiment was allegedly concentrated in the area of Skadovsk.
Be that as it may, the enemy will soon be forced to “deal with the problem of Ukrainian bridgeheads” on the Dnieper. After all, if they leave this issue to chance, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will still be able to get a section of coastline on the right bank of the river, where the bulk of Russian artillery will not reach. It’s not for me to explain to you what it will be.
Naturally, it still has to be reliably covered from the air. On this score, I also have certain, far from unfounded (judging by the information coming from the troops) hopes.

So, is the West basically over? 
I mean, yes, it still exists. But nothing is working as intended, is it?
- disinformation amplified by foreign agents enthralling 20% to 50% of the population, depending on the country, who have become completely disconnected from reality unable to be reached effectively with conventional information lanes
- nations basically unable to defend their allies or themselves in a larger military conflict 
- international institutions formed in the Cold War era or shortly after either useless,or dominated or hamstringed by authocracies within them
- huge problem with political apathy or inability in the non-neofascist parts of the population and its politicians; they are doing and saying the same things they did and said before we got here and have been losing ground ever since 
Almost feels as if Putin is basically right with believing that democracies are unsustainable systems.
Did we lose the hybrid war in the 2010s and never noticed until now, because only after Feb 22 the cockroaches came out of their prepared holes in force?

This is what it looks like when a Shahed UAV is shot down by a mobile group. For the last six months, Russia has been launching long-range strikes on Ukraine exclusively at night (closer to the morning)

However, for all this there is no main thing - the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out these tasks (for a variety of reasons). In their current state, they are simply not able to overcome the echeloned and prepared enemy defense system in this operational direction (I suspect that in others too) with an acceptable and adequate pace and scope. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that this was the “main” direction in the last summer-autumn campaign of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Therefore, General Zaluzhny is entirely right in his assessment of the general (strategic) situation that has developed, no matter who and no matter what objects to him from among the official (and unofficial as well) representatives of our military-political leadership. General Zaluzhny cannot, in his assessment of the situation, proceed from any considerations other than purely military ones.
He, as the Commander-in-Chief, is directly responsible for the planning, organization and practical use of the troops under his command. It makes no sense to him to say black and white or vice versa. He is not a politician, not a businessman.
The only thing that can be “discussed” with General Zaluzhny’s point of view is the methods and forms through which, as he believes, it is possible to correct this situation, and regarding the causes and mistakes that led to it.
But again, I repeat, this discussion should be non-public and exclusively among those people (officials) who are directly involved in making management decisions at the appropriate level. To organize a farce and “showdowns” in the public information sphere on the topic “what did Zaluzhny mean” or “what did Zelensky mean” means very significantly harming the overall implementation of the war strategy of our state.

Thus, it becomes clear that in order to simply reach the “outer perimeter” of the enemy’s fortifications in the area of the city of Tokmak, in the Rabotino-Tokmak direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike group will have to gradually and sequentially solve several extremely complex tasks at once:
🔺"break through" the first position in the Novoprokopovka area
🔺assault a fortified area in the area of the village Solodka Balka
🔺 reach second position in the area of. Krasnogorka, expecting at any moment enemy counterattacks on its left flank from its powerful defense area in the village Ocheretuvate
🔺break through the second position in the area village Krasnogorka
🔺and only after all this - approach the city of Tokmak
At the same time, if you act “a little to the right”, on the part of Nesteryanka and Mirny, you will have to:
🔺 overcome the supply line with the enemy defense area in the village. Mirnoye, which is not even close to comparable to what is equipped in the area. Sweet Balka
🔺reach the first position of the main line of defense equipped by the enemy south of the villages of Pobednoe (upper), Ternovatoe, Stepnoe
🔺break through it, and the enemy’s fortified positions there cannot be compared with those located in the Rabotino-Tokmak directorate, reaching the Novogorovka-Chistopolye line
🔺and only then, reach the “external perimeter” of the enemy’s fortifications in the area of Tokmak through the village Pokrovskoye
At first glance, this seems more realistic than the previous option, which was implemented recently in the direction Rabotino - Novoprokopovka and towards the village. Verbovoe. But, as always, there is one “but”. And, well, quite significant.
The fact is that the distances that the Ukrainian Armed Forces units will have to travel in the first and second options are completely different.
And this is one of the key, if not decisive factors, because it is directly related to time.
Distance from the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the village. Novoprokopovka to the outer perimeter of enemy fortifications in the area of Tokmak in a straight line - 18.4 km, at the same time, the same distance from the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the village. Nesteryanka to the outer perimeter of enemy fortifications in the area of Tokmak - almost 26 km.
Yes, at first glance, the difference of 8 km is not that big. But it’s not for me to explain to you what today at the tactical level means every “extra” kilometer of advance of your troops on terrain that has been comprehensively prepared by the enemy for a stubborn and long-term defense.
Of course, there are several more options for further actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Tokmak direction, in addition to the ones I described above. For example, you can also “turn” towards the city of Pologi (there the distance between the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the enemy fortifications equipped to the west and north of the city is generally less than 10 km). You can shift your efforts to the Vasilievka direction, and in general, there are still options, as they say.

However, for all this there is no main thing - the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out these tasks (for a variety of reasons). In their current state, they are simply not able to overcome the echeloned and prepared enemy defense system in this operational direction (I suspect that in others too) with an acceptable and adequate pace and scope. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that this was the “main” direction in the last summer-autumn campaign of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Therefore, General Zaluzhny is entirely right in his assessment of the general (strategic) situation that has developed, no matter who and no matter what objects to him from among the official (and unofficial as well) representatives of our military-political leadership. General Zaluzhny cannot, in his assessment of the situation, proceed from any considerations other than purely military ones.
He, as the Commander-in-Chief, is directly responsible for the planning, organization and practical use of the troops under his command. It makes no sense to him to say black and white or vice versa. He is not a politician, not a businessman.
The only thing that can be “discussed” with General Zaluzhny’s point of view is the methods and forms through which, as he believes, it is possible to correct this situation, and regarding the causes and mistakes that led to it.
But again, I repeat, this discussion should be non-public and exclusively among those people (officials) who are directly involved in making management decisions at the appropriate level. To organize a farce and “showdowns” in the public information sphere on the topic “what did Zaluzhny mean” or “what did Zelensky mean” means very significantly harming the overall implementation of the war strategy of our state.