danfrodo

So Putin fires army commander for diligently implementing Putin's own orders. That's chutzpah!

xxx

Massive Kherson surrender? We'll now see just how much disaster Putin can survive. "Russian Kherson Command? Table for 20,000? Yes, Sir this way please. Our friendly valets will park your vehicles for you, at no charge."

yes, thanks for the correction. For earlier Tolkien lore, I think elves is good analogy. But Gondorians is definitely best fit. So who's making predictions about where UKR strikes next? Full speed in Kherson? Zaporizhe? Northern hook into Luhansk?

Another September day and yet more great progress for elves against orcs. Above Huba quotes someone saying shortening of line frees up ~3 UA brigades. That's huge. Shortens line for RU but I think they are not ending up w any reserves out of this And 18 legislative councils openly calling for Putin to step down I believe I read in post earlier. So lots more govt officials seem to feel safe saying things that would've led to immediate imprisonment before now. This is getting interesting. How do they feel safe enough to do this? Their local security is loyal, like local police? Putin might be physically safe behind his security apparatus, but I still wonder what happens if everyone outside the kremlin simply stops following his orders? What if regional leaders have enough security to ward off FSB that come to arrest them? What then Putin? We always think of coups as a palace overthrow, but maybe it happens just by folks criticizing him and ignoring his orders and being locally powerful enough to get away with it.

Oh, for sure. Very dangerous and must be timed right. But there's gotta be a lot of folks there who are wishing they weren't chained in a sinking raft to a rabid dog.

dang it, edit issue. To the above: I like this, some nice out of the box thinking. Let's put ourselves in shoes of folks in LPR. RU has shown it thinks you are nothing but cannon fodder, have sent most of your men off to die. Once the war is over, if you are part of russia or some independent oblast, you will be under sanctions w no prospect for economic and infrastructure recovery. But let's say you decide to ally w Ukraine and turn against RU. As part of Ukraine you are facing a future as a western facing and (over time) prosperous nation that doesn't send you off to die. It's not a bad bet for LPR to make. All the hard core RU nats would flee to RU and Ukrainians who had fled LPR could come back. Which I think is a big win, politically. Less zealots, more normal people.

Alice in Wonderland has nothing on this. It's Bizarro World. The guy w tshirt and big nose said we just need to talk to the ukrainians and explain to them that ukraine doesn't really exist, that their language doesn't exist, and that they are really part of russia. So he thinks if only they had explained this reality then RU wouldn't be in this mess. WOW.

I think now it's more important for UKR to collapse the Kherson Kessel than to advance more in the east. Bringing Putin down would be the best thing for UKR, and a second, even more massive disaster is the best chance of achieving this. So if it comes down to one or the other, I vote for Kherson. If they've got resources to secure the newly liberated land and continue eastern offensive and collapse Kherson, that's great, go for it. But if not they need to consolidate the east and eliminate Kherson as soon as possible. I understand that Putin might not fall no matter what, but increasing the probability of that is UKR's best bet.

I think this is the only position for Ukraine to take right now. Why would they make concessions before they even start talking? especially when RU military is in collapse and there's always strong chance of political collapse.

Over 5 pages to review when I got down to PC this morning. Wow, great news, great discussions. Y'all are really quite something. Huba posts video of huge burning fuel dump in Belgorod -- end the war you fools! We've had collapse, started local then snowballed to an entire front -- which is what we've always hoped would happen. Weakened sector gets hit and while some pockets tried to hold out, were left stranded as all neighbors ran away. Cascading disaster. Now we're getting reports of RU troops fleeing behind the new front and on other fronts. Is the bad news reaching other fronts and causing already brittle morale to shatter? And this is only the opening band! The headliner is Kherson, where a much greater force is stranded and has no way out. Even the most brainwashed are gonna have a hard time keeping their denial systems intact when this disaster happens. And once again in human history, the needs/desires of one man take precedence over the needs of millions (~150 million in this case). Some space alien watching this has got to be saying "WTF is wrong w these creatures? They actually have intelligence yet they accept this kind of insanity, over & over & over again".

New rule for the next 24 hours: if we're going to make battle comparisons they have to be from LOTR.

Huba post said Putin shoving 1300 kadyrovities into Kherson. They'll not be happy to have to fight, let alone be captured. Maybe this is why Kadyrov stepped aside, because Putin was pressuring him to actually get into combat. So how incredibly stupid can Putin get? These troops should be used to shore up the disaster, not sent into a doomed kessel. Can't wait to see these clowns kneeling on the ground w their hands taped behind their backs. 'course, I suppose they will try to swim before it comes to that.

whoop-ass? Dang, Polish dude's got some proper american talkin' right there. Next thing ya know he'll be watching american football and eatin' chicken wings. (I remember back in the day back in dayton when wings were poor people food, now so popular are expensive) Just to pile on w what was said above by Beleg, but w some positive spin: 1. Unless further collapse the Kharkiv-Izyum lines will probably solidify soon, but the question is where. The river is the obvious line. Capturing at least 3000km of territory and removing a big bunch of RU soldiers and gear is just fine. 2. Gifts that keep on giving -- removing Kupyansk greatly complicates RU supply; plus massive loss of supplies in retreat. All of this greatly weakens whatever is left on this front. 3. Kherson is doomed, so another, even bigger military disaster is going to happen and I think it will be sooner rather than later as UKR pressure mounts. 4. Best way forward is for RU political collapse, which could mean withdrawal of RU forces everywhere. We see 'tea leaves' but no tea yet. 5. 4-6 weeks of good weather ahead, hopefully. A LOT can be done in that time by UKR, but what can RU do in that time? 10-15% of it's troops are out of the war (I am counting Kherson, because they are basically a doomed garrison).

Yes, now that Herr Putler sees this he'll take charge and win the war. Uh huh. And Kherson kessel is the next disaster waiting to happen. I wonder what excuse RU nats will make up then?

Even if retreating RU forces wanted to turn and fight, what are they gonna fight with? That is the single biggest haul of the entire war so far

Holy moly, I go to the gym for my weekly saturday ass-whuppin' and there's 56 more posts. This is madness. What is going on in Moscow????? Stepping back from the stunning operational achievement I want to think about how this was also made possible by Putin. He specifically chose to stay in completely untenable Kherson region. Then he chose to actually reinforce that kessel. If he had left Kherson this Izyum disaster would not have been possible because there would've been enough troops to prevent it. This is all possible thanks to Putin being the stupidest MF possible. And I hope he dies today at the hands of the military he's so thoroughly betrayed.

I came down to computer today to see 181 posts overnight. My oh my what a busy day in Ukraine. 3000 sq km, major cities, main supply hub. RU 'regrouping' forces -- into POW camps. The ammo & vehicle haul is going to be insane. I love the smell of collapse in morning. Smells like victory. Congratulations to all those in Ukraine. And congrats to all those in surrounding countries who would've been in Putin's sights if he had prevailed in Ukraine. It's not over, a long way to go, but this is what we've all been dreaming about. Just last week famous US TV vatnik lectured that Russian was winning, obviously. He's been a Putin mouthpiece since the beginning. I wonder what he'll be saying now.

Out of likes, thanks for all the excellent posts today, Y'all. Now if you'll excuse me Rings of Power Episode 3 awaits, where I hope to see more defeated orcs than I already saw here today.

You are taking all the fun out of my "russian empire breaks up" fantasy. Stop it now. . You with your petty details like nuclear weapons and warlords and other trivialities.

Only a small quibble w this. Folks (me included sometimes) say "what will we do to make new RU govt". Kind of a big assumption that we get to decide, or even have a big impact that doesn't blow up in our face. Reminds me of folks 70 years ago saying "who lost china?" -- meaning who in west allowed Mao to win. West didn't get to decide. Probably won't in RU. But maybe we can have some positive influence. I am actually hoping for breakup because, as was stated by someone earlier today, we want the empire to end. A bunch of smaller republics, each w little ability to wreck the world, sounds pretty good to me.

Site I go to published this today in summary of latest in the war: "And really, this offensive is truly possible to all those Territorial Defense Force units stuck in trenches up and down the front for the past six months, getting slammed daily, oftentimes feeling abandoned. Their impossible heroism allowed Ukraines regular army units and 300,000 reserves to prepare in the country’s west, while Western allies equipped and trained them in proper war fighting techniques." While we're feeling good about progress it's good to remember who's months of suffering and deaths made this possible.

Well, that will certainly help at the front for RU. Good time to make jokes, when you have ~30,000 troops cut off due to stupidity of your beloved dictator. Even if some escape UKR gets all the vehicles and supplies left behind. What vatnik can't find humor in that?

I think we're agreeing. End of RU empire via folks just saying 'no' and Putin having no strength to contest it. Say Belgorod regions goes independent, saying to the world "hey take sanctions off us, we're not Russia anymore" and hoping to join the (relatively more) civilized & prosperous community of nations. Maybe Belarus, while not part of RU, overthrows dictator & says "we're not bad, trade w us". I would love to see Putin in charge of nothing more than the duchy of muscovy and it's local environs.