danfrodo

So it looks like RU nats, in their endless brainless freakouts, are now trying to convince everyone that this is a war for Russian survival. Of course, the exact opposite is true. The best thing RU could do is just leave. And kill Putin. We saw this in so many US escapades where idiots say that somehow leaving our foreign expeditionary war would lead to imminent collapse at home. I am wondering how much UKR advance is helped by all the ammo it picks up along the way. If a unit has carries 2-3 days of ammo but keeps finding nicely pre-positioned replenished from RU all along the route, it's gotta help. I wonder how much fuel they are also capturing intact. Plus working vehicles to replace breakdowns/losses, just need to find a can of paint.

I hope that scumbag in the picture gets grabbed by FSB and dragged to the war he so obviously loves. Does he have zero self awareness? We don't know what percentage of russians are in love w being a nation of conquest and enslavement. Probably younger people are less rabid than older. we just don't know. One can't do a poll in Russia, it means about as much as one in china or north korea. You have to be either very brave or very stupid to say "I disagree w Putin" on the record.

yeah, why not just put up a post on tiktok saying "I am a war criminal. If I am ever seen outside Russia, please arrest me."

GrigB, thanks for your work on annotating this map, so excellent. This is putting a great big smile on my face. I thought UKR would just stop at the Oskil line -- maybe UKR thought that also but when they saw weak forces they decided to keep pushing? Someday we'll know I hope. And thanks for getting the thread back on track. I'm out of likes so this is a long winded like.

This is getting very exciting! For sure will get some equipment and supplies from the new Lyman kessel, and hopefully lots of POWs. But what waits in the next defense line? Mobiks? Putin's already feeding in these useless troops to the area, so is that all he's got? If he pulls better units from elsewhere then those areas are open to exploitation given that UKR seems faster to reposition than RU. And Putin now has to look at his situation map every day and see ~15-20k of his best units bottled up doing nothing in Kherson Kessel, which he desperately needs elsewhere. The gift that just keeps on giving. The old saying stays true: he that defends everything, defends nothing.

Maybe the pipeline discussion could move on to what can actually be done to counter this? We saw post about increased sanctions. But what can we do militarily? Will we target RU mini-subs loitering in international waters near pipelines? I would love to have cruise missiles blast RU sub facilities, but that is obviously insane level of escalation. But maybe warning RU to back off or their subs will be targeted? That's still a big escalation but at least is more proportional.

I think this is on-topic, so will post. There's a kid that I linked to in post a couple days ago. he's been posting on YT since war started about life in Russia -- Petersburg, specifically. I kept thinking SHUT UP because I figured FSB would not like his posts. Then I starting thinking GET OUT as he started posting about the mobilization exodus. And then in recent post I thought "why is he posting in a hotel??". Now I know. He was trying to flee. He's got a YT that will go live soon, but he indicates that he is already out of RU. I am actually really glad for this kid. He's harmless and is an example what Russia should be -- peaceful people wanting to cleanup their own country. So I am posting this an anecdote to illustrate the exodus is not just RU nats that are avoiding the fight but also just scared kids that didn't want the war in the first place.

Sorry, LethaFace, wasn't really trying to single you out. Was just venting about all the posts. yes, maybe it wasn't Russia, but w/o evidence everyone is just making stuff up. We KNOW that Putin has been sabotaging energy supplies for months, so for any other actor to have done this would require some sort of proof before I would bother looking there.

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Maybe we can start a different thread, something like "all the bad things US is doing & has done". That's fine, I'm US and we've done some despicable things. And we've done a huge amount of good. Go ahead and criticize all day -- in that thread. Heck, let's start w Nicaraugua, 1926. And maybe start another thread "let's bitch about Stolz & Germany". Lots of valid point to be made there. If we could do these two threads it would really clean up this thread which has been the go-to for many people on what is happening in the war. I want to be diligent in this forum and not post w/o having read everyone's earlier posts. But this thread is getting polluted w endless speculation and bitching about things over which we have no control.

oh my gawd. that is so unreal. Russian citizen can go from engineer, teacher, doctor, nurse, whatever, to front in days and be captured within a week. If someone predicted this 2 weeks ago we would've laughed him off the forum. Ya just can't make stuff up that's crazier than this. This has got to lead to a revolution???? Doesn't it???

I laughed so hard at this. And I bet what they really said was actually even crazier than what was made up.

It's all about where you want to fight and who you want to be. If you are a cold war person, then you need CMCW no matter what. It definitely sounds like you are a WW2 person, and FB is a must have. Snow, mud, darkness, desperate fighting. Sherman-76, tiger & tiger2, etc. It's all there. The US campaign to clear a path to Bastogne from the south is pretty epic.

I suspect they'll push for however long their resources, the weather, and the RU forces allow. How tired are these units? How is the logistics working across Oskil & from the south? How many of those roads are paved? And just what is behind the current front lines? New mobiks? Can't get collapse w/o some pressure. But we just don't know what UKR resources actually look like. Are they super stretched right now? The lack of progress in Kherson says they actually can't do two major offensives at once. But maybe they have another surprise awaiting us .

Gosh golly, there's a war going on? And this thread is supposed to be about that? I'll be darned. Thanks for this update, GrigB. So looks like that's the last road that can supply Lyman area? And I've heard around 2000 troops estimated in the area? Those 2000 seem to have actually fought hard, so it'll be nice to get them out of the war. I think we can safely assume their replacements will be less capable and willing.

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For sure, who doesn't want to be part of Putin's Russia? Then only thing better would be to have been under Pol Pot.

We're not seeing collapse on east side of Oskil, but still spectacular progress relative to the previous 6 months of this war. Another spectacular disaster for Putin is in the making. How many of these can he survive? And what will happen when suddenly the cell phones of newly mobilized corpses aren't responding to the familys' urgent messages? When will Russians turn their anger in the right direction for a change?

I'd say RU is behaving exactly like one would expect when a dictator is making military decisions. He's desperately trying to hold on to everything, throwing in every warm body he can find. Sound familiar?

Putin attacking a pipeline belonging to someone else would bring some kind of response, I wonder what it would look like.

thanks BillBindC, I saw that but was just looking for more input now that we've got more evidence it was done by Putin

To forum folks: what was the thinking for Putin to order this? I understand that it will cause shocks in energy & stock markets to some extent, but what else does it accomplish other than that short term pain?

I wonder if this looks different once the war is 'over', whatever that will mean. Will Germany then be totally OK sending it's warehoused leo2's? I've been trying to separate in my mind the various time scales of arming Ukraine. Right now it needs tools it can use right now. I call that the UKR army 2022 But what should UKR army look like by end of 2023? That army will take a year of logistics & maintenence training to happen if it's going to have a whole new set of armored vehicles, airplanes, etc. But all of those technical people are 100% busy right now. So how does one start the new army while all the manpower is currently involved in an all consuming war? Then we get into what the UKR army should look like by end of 2024, 2025. One key aspect will be that it needs to be strong enough that Putin, even w a rebuilt army, couldn't possibly threaten Ukraine.

As a US taxpayer, I actually don't care about the cost. The US defense budget is enormous and this is what it's meant to do. How much of the material we've sent was actually new spending? How much was stuff sitting around in warehouses? So I'm glad to actually get existing, already paid for equipment into a real fight of good vs evil. (and there really aren't many wars that are so obviously black & white as this one). Plus the US is getting excellent experience in logistics, ISR, planning. And getting to test out various weapons systems, in real life. And the end of this will be a Russia that doesn't have the strength to threaten anyone in europe. Though Kazahkstan, Georgia, et al, might be on the target list in a few years. THis is money very well spent. The worst, most dangerous serial killing dictator of our times is being crushed -- and best of all he did it to himself!

So a good time to ask why Mr SillyShirt has not answered the call. If they are calling up old, fat stupid F's he should be first in line.