danfrodo

I'd say the key here is whether the people in question believe they are in a war of choice or a war of survival. If one believes they are in a war of survival, then bombing & terrorism won't break them. If they view the war as a choice, then suffering can make a difference. For UKR, giving in means losing huge territory and giving Putin time to rebuild and restart his war in a few years. For Russians, giving in means their lives will improve over time, and dramatically -- relative to the cost of continuing the war. Many (most) russians don't know this reality, but the key to getting folks to change their thinking might be to bring the war to them, to get them to start questioning. In UKR questioning the war leads to "we're F-ed if we give in". In RU questioning the war will lead to "this is insane! Hang Putin!".

Sadly, the Rat Czar will not yield. This war has continued for 9 months for only one reason -- Putin's survival (save face, etc). He is completely tied to this war and cannot back out. Putin's propaganda presents this war as existential for RU -- which is actually true but in the opposite way these clowns mean. RU survival depends on getting out, not staying in. The effect on this insanity on 144M russians (and 44M UKR) is irrelevant. Putin must die. He will never leave UKR territory unless forced out, like w Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson. My hope for the attacks on RU is that it finally causes some faction in RU to kill Putin.

Definitely plays into confirmation bias for me as it upholds my belief that RU is going to have serious issues in the field this winter. Given how badly RU has treated its troops, especially mobiks, I am having trouble seeing how they can hold a continuous line against UKR pressure when many of the sectors will be frozen, sick, malnurished men. So very happy to see this report that says RU clothing & boots is inadequate via bad design.

Great point, Kinophile. I read that back in my 20s, sounds like I need to give it a re-read, thx

good gawd what an amazing trilogy. All other sci fi seems like comic books after this. Absolute masterpiece.

I would love for Carlson & Fuentes discussion to go on & on & on, cuz they are both disgusting snakes, but hopefully we can follow Steve's advice & drop this. There's a war on, after all. I just read the NYTimes article Steve linked earlier about RU economy. Sounds like short term Putin weathering the storm but there's big issues ahead in the short/medium term. And in the long term RU is going back in time relative to the rest of the world. And they'll never get an export market for whatever ~1980/90s tech they manage to produce. There's a difference between 'vintage' and 'junk'.

Some good info in this summary from today. Some videos I hadn't seen here. Along w tear jerker at the bottom. Looks like UKR is significantly reinforcing Bakhmut sector -- wouldn't it be great if UKR stunned the world and took the fight to Wagnerites. Wagnerites are probably very weakened and may have been so focused on offense they haven't set up much for defense? Would be fun as hell to see UKR punch these guys, hard, and drive towards Popasne/Kadiika. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/5/2140133/-Ukraine-update-Russia-can-t-quit-Bakhmut-as-Ukrainian-air-defenses-stymie-latest-missile-barrage

Wow, fun day for Putin. Two airbase strikes deep within Russia, and maybe one at a power plant. And food rationing? Someone on the forum the other day had the astute observation that once Lavrov said Ukrainian electrical grid was a legitimate military target, he was also making RU grid a legitimate target. I sure hope we see much of RU getting power knocked out.

And in what kind of bizarro world do we think we'll be fighting china on land, needing massive artillery supplies and the like, which is most of what we are providing to UKR? If china wanted to conquer Taiwan it's really kinda ludicrous to think it would be like Normandy invasion. It would naval/air/missiles. A contested land invasion is nonsense, as that could only occur once Taiwan was already defeated. So the only weaknesses we get by supplying UKR is in anti-missile, anti-air assets. We're not sending our navy, nor our air assets.

The new Perun video, about winter war requirements, makes it very clear that the most vital item going forward is to add winter battle packs for CMCW & CMBS.

thanks for sharing that. Made my little heart flutter w joy. RU chopper on the way to kill Ukrainians gets what it deserves. Made my day. And the joy in the UKR guy's is the best part.

good summary today from this site. It does give me confirmation bias on my current beliefs, but until I get evidence otherwise I'll stick w my notions: Bakhmut for UKR is a great way to weaken RU army; svatove-kremmina is main focus; tokmak will be attacked at some point soon to cut the east-west rail line to Dnieper left bank region (land bridge/remainder of Kherson Oblast). https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/4/2139964/-Ukraine-Update-As-winter-cold-freezes-the-ground-Ukraine-has-options

Definitely possible that we are over estimating UKR manpower. But they just had an entire front released (Kherson) and have been training thousands of troops -- just the ones trained in NATO countries was reported at 4-6000 per month, and that can't be all the new troops. I'll stick w my belief that UKR is choosing to under-resource Bakhmut in order to strike elsewhere once the ground allows until I see some evidence to the contrary. And look at the payoff -- huge numbers of RU soldiers are being killed on this front, for relatively low cost to UKR. I am still solidly in the "UKR gonna attack soon" camp. I think it will be Svatove-Kremmina front first, which is kinda silly of me to say because that front is still very active. Then I think they'll try to attack toward Tokmak on the Melitopol front.

Thanks for letting us know there's a new Perun video, I was just wondering what I'd while on my ski machine this morning, and this is perfect. This is something I find very interesting, the winter war. Good organization with good gear and rotations vs uncaring, abusive, neglectful system. All the soldiers are miserable, but one side is probably unbearable misery over time, with sickness, trench foot, frostbite, malnutrition, etc. LLFlank posted a claim that UKR outnumbered 7:1 on Bakhmut front. If true, that tells me a lot about what is coming. If UKR forces aint there, they must be somewhere else..... Great discussions above. I'm w Steve on collaboration -- can be black and white, but it can also be very very gray.

Yeah, I wonder what those snakes are up to. We have evidence that Belarus already sent it's artillery ammo to Russia, so any conventional attack would be a disaster. It also sets up a military coup, potentially. Maybe RU has put loyalists in all the highest command positions, but majors & colonels sometimes lead military rebellions. I am more worried about missiles & other mischief coming from there. Or it's just another amateur ploy, trying to get UKR to move troops to the border. If Belarus did cross the border then Lukashenko will receive whatever sanctions & penalties that Russia has. It also is an escalation that UKR allies could use as pretext to send longer range missiles.

I like it. But it could be really risky. If UKR pushes some light, easily retrievable across it could cause a disproportionate reponse by RU, causing huge disruption to enemy w relatively little cost & risk. The key is to make RU at least think it's a prelude to phase 2&3 above.

While I don't expect any offensive from across the river for all the the reasons posted earlier (logistics), I do wonder just how much mischief UKR can cause w smaller operations. UKR forces would be on foot once they crossed unless there were partisans waiting on the other side w vehicles. But they'd still be super vulnerable to chance meetings from RU patrols of just any little unit they might run into by accident. The kind of tiny raid shown above is great for UKR morale (and bad for RU morale) but not sure what else it does. What kind of targets could UKR go after I wonder? edit: looking more closely at map I guess there is that main road running east-west not too far from the river. Could plant IEDs and mines and cause trouble for that supply line I suppose.

The whole Bakhmut front for UKR seems like hard, cold calculation to me. I think UKR could put an end to RU offensive operations here if they chose to put resources into that effort. The fact that they don't seems to me that UKR is building up for offensive actions elsewhere in the (near?) future. RU keeps getting tiny little victories, which entice RU command to continue to shove forces into the grinder, which may be exactly what UKR command wants. But it's a cold hearted strategy, as the poor slobs on the Bakhmut front are constantly pounded, though I suppose I'd order the same thing. RU better hope for a muddy winter and not a frozen one. Steve's video of alleged mutiny feeds into my hope that when UKR does strike, they will find a lot of very brittle sectors that will fold under steady pressure. I am still thinking of the 'kidnapped' RU men who will have suffered months of abuse, neglect, deprivation, and winter conditions with inadequate clothing & shelter & weapons.. How (and why) will they fight hard? And for how long?

gosh, yes, that's embarrassing. Point taken

My russian is a tad deficient, Acrashb -- would you summarize what this says?

Seems there's at least a little movement on the Svatove front, I wasn't expecting that. Hopefully UKR is weakening RU defenses even w the mud. What will happen when the ground freezes solid??? Temperatures still above freezing each day. I know this is perhaps echo-chamber wishful thinking, but I think the RU forces are much more brittle than many folks think going forward. But we shall see. Morale & motivation & platoon/company leadership & supplies & shelter matter. There's a lot of kidnapped RU men who are already in complete misery and not wanting to die for Putin. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/2/2139602/-Ukraine-update-Advances-near-Svatove-and-Kreminna-show-that-Ukrainian-forces-are-still-on-the-move

YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES!

1762 pages and someone finally references The Exalted One, The Magnificent and Peerless, Greatest of All Gods, Tom Waits

Hopefully they will get what they deserve: A spot on SBurke's list, preferably by US-supplied ordnance of some sort. While 'legally' they are not abetting terror for money, we all know that this is exactly what they are doing.

And New York City was founded by the Dutch as New Amsterdam. So I guess if Aragorn et al decide to take it back we are obligated to comply. Fortunately my spies tell me that Aragorn is so busy w the new CMRT battle pack that NYC is safe for the foreseeable future.