danfrodo

laughed out loud, literally. Professional humor right there.

I am all for the suggestion from somewhere above. Just drive a few Polish Abrams over the border, sign over the titles. It's all for show, since Sholz obviously needs some kind of show for every f-ing decision. Meanwhile, more Ukrainians die every day.

That's some great news. So 150km (93 miles) is gonna be a nice disruption on the supply dumps that RU moved just out of HIMARS range. I hope they are here soon, if not already. And once again, is it any wonder UKR wants IFVs, especially bradleys? And tanks? Even once all the fancy tools significantly cut RU supply lines there are still bunches of mobiks (and real soldiers) that have to be forced out of positions. Arty & killer drones will weaken and suppress them, but still need to assault sometimes. Especially when the mobiks know if they leave their positions they'll be killed by their own side.

well said, DanCA. I am not looking super far forward. I am just looking at how UKR can get its land back. I want the whole land bridge. I want to reach Starobilsk -- be fun to see them supply their cannon fodder if that happens. That's my minimum. So I am just fixated on what it will take for UKR to achieve the above items and I think that lots of better AFVs are a big part of it (along w all the other goodies) -- oddly enough, UKR military & Zelensky seem to agree.

Totally agree w everything you said, The_Capt. All I was trying to say was that UKR still needs the firepower to get past strongpoints -- UKR won't always be able to infiltrate it's way forward. It will often have to fight through some stiff location before it will have infiltration opportunities. I am not talking of bum rush w mass armor & men. I am just talking about getting fire superiority to overcome some local, dug in defense. And UKR will lose AFVs doing this so needs lots of replacements. Doing this w MRAPS, HUMMVs & M113s sucks. Precision will definitely help, but it might not be enough to allow a free walk onto the objectives. Some of those RU guys might survive and fire back. So I am agreeing that corrosive is what will happen but there will still be nasty fights, especially in bottleneck areas that both sides know are necessary for advance. I am seeing this as a .AND. not a .OR. discussion (going some old school fortran there)

This whole discussion is confusing to me. I thought we were in a war where UKR has to overcome WW1 style dug in cannon fodder backed up by ATGMs, arty, IFVs and tanks. Yeah, RU has drones, but the actual fight to regain territory is not all that high tech. UKR needs to suppress and overrun fortified positions. Lots of positions maybe would be abandoned once outflanked, but UKR still needs to actually fight to gain lots of them. And for that they need enough Mobile Protected Firepower to locally overwhelm the enemy. Hence UKR has been screaming for months for more tanks & IFVs. UKR will lose lots of AFVs in these fights, so needs lots to start out with. Drones, ISR, etc, are super critical to gaining the advantage but sooner or later someone actually has to take positions against armed opposition.

Best of all the arrogant idiot thinks he would win all the fights he starts. Maybe his first victim will have friends and fellow citizens (allies) who would jump into the fray to help their friend? Maybe his victim does lots of crossfit or martial arts and will break him into pieces? he does seem to sum up modern RU strategic thinking rather well. edit: ooops, darnit, just saw post where a Pole provoked the Russian. Dang it, I hate it when facts get in the way of a good story.

This is just about exactly what I was thinking. "No one can be this stupid. Why wreck all the economic ties for some land full of people who hate you?" Count me in the "way wrong" column. You forgot one: - delayed CMBS new release by who knows how long. Not his biggest crime but certainly should be brought up as a charge in The Hague.

So Splinty, what do you think of bradleys for UKR? And remember option B is old soviet APCs, M113s, MRAPs or HUMMVs. Is it realistic to supply & maintain these in UKR once crews & infantry are trained to use them?

This is interesting. Battle vs the RU forces trying to take Kharkiv city center in first days of the invasion. The RU guys fought hard but the UKR guys fought harder. I bet the RU guys were convinced they were gonna be relieved if they just held out. Hello Arnhem.

New Perun for my workout today, I was just wondering what I would watch . Thx for the heads up on this. I'm interested to see if my beliefs on UKR badly needing AFVs w better firepower & survivability holds up under Perun's scrutiny.

Glad to hear you are OK, Zeleban. And let this be yet another reminder of what Putin is: A serial mass murdering child kidnapper terrorist who destroys entire cities and sends thousands of his own people to death and has threatened nuclear armageddon. All because he can't figure out how to extricate himself from his failed attempt at a coup and the subsequent subjagation of Ukraine & its people. And if left in place w a freeze of the current 'territorial realities' he'll just rebuild and start attacking again in 2025.

xxx

So what is the executive summary of what you are saying? Succinctly, what do you think UKR & it's allies should do? Like in a few sentences. Your overarching thesis is lost, for me, in between all the other stuff. I get that your biggest concern in Putin unleashing nukes, either through misunderstanding or brinksmanship or spite. But what is it you want to do?

This is the money sentence. UKR is in a fight for survival on its own land. Putin is in a war or choice. Putin can just go home and the war is over. UKR would have to give up much of their home to end the war. Just like Germany in WW1 -- the kaiser could simply order everyone to head home. The French could not do this, the war was in France, in their home. But the kaiser felt he couldn't afford to lose face so instead chose the continued slaughter of thousands of people, hoping to pull a rabbit out of the hat while his nation was bled white and starved. And just like w the kaiser, if Putin would just go home Russia would be stronger going forward.

Thank Huba. This gets into the issue of how much logistics tail would occur per battalion and hereby how much benefit from standardizing on fewer western MBTs & AFVs. So is one battalion worth it? -- I certainly don't know. But given the ridiculous dancing around on the Leo2s it's hard to say whether these challengers might be all that's available for a while.

My current understanding is that the 10 challengers are a political stunt to say "western MBTs have already been sent to UKR" so other countries have political cover to send MBTs w/o facing accusations of 'escalation'. Do y'all think that's correct? If this achieves that goal, I am all for it. I'm looking forward to some UKR battalion-sized kampgruppes w leo2s + western AFVS making some real noise later this spring, perhaps late May?

I gotta admit, Leo2 is a really good looking tank. Especially the version w the added protection that makes the turret looks more rectangular. Bad ***.

This is a tour de force of all things beaver, and quite a very enlightening yet entertaining book. Sadly, he neglected to add a chapter on the use of beavers in military defensive works. https://smile.amazon.com/Eager-Surprising-Secret-Beavers-Matter/dp/B07DNH3J94/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3U8DB8T2RZ3IA&keywords=eager+beaver&qid=1673630387&sprefix=eager+beaver%2Caps%2C186&sr=8-1

I hope UKR got all the soldiers out. And so we all wait to see what this means. Was it just a way for UKR to get RU to expend men and (allegedly) short artillery on a relatively insignificant piece of terrain? This assumes that UKR has something better to do w its forces. Cold next couple days then back to very warm & mud. So it might be a while before we can see what, if anything, UKR has up its sleeves.

I'd like to make clear my thoughts on the western AFVs. I am not thinking UKR will lose w/o this stuff. I mainly just think UKR would have better offensive capabilities w better AFVs. Ending this war on good terms for UKR means UKR has to take defended ground and I'd much rather be in a unit w better AFVs that have the most lethality (firepower,optics) that I can get. That's w/o me including tanks like leo2s, etc, which have a much longer lead time & logistical tail.

damn you w all your facts & logic. (smiley face + thumbs up) -- since you don't like emojis. I just wants to see some bradleys shredding some baddies w their bmps & such.

Excellent points, TheCapt. but we have already flooded UKR w mountains of western equipment of varying types. And we've seen assaults going forward from HUMMVs & M113s firing 50 cals -- that is incredibly sub-optimum relative to what the west had available in large numbers. Plus all the other dozens of other different vehicles that have been sent like MRAPS, Aussie-version of MRAPS, bunches of armored cars, etc. What we're already doing is logistically complicated. What I am saying is that we could've sent large numbers of one or two kinds of much, much better AFVs 6 months ago instead of the piecemeal b--s--t we've been sending. We've got lots of bradleys that are in storage, for example. We already have the logistics mess because every mechanized unit has a different mix of stuff. It would've been better to settle and standardize on a couple AFVs early on. Then we'd only have those two plus the typical soviet stuff that already exists. And going forward we'll continually wish we had done this six months previous as we watch assaults going forward w MRAPS and HUMMVs.

This does sound like it's as much about personal political prestige as much as anything else when I see that quote. I wonder what cost wagner is paying for this and whether that will lead to consequences for them.

This video is exactly why my blood boils at the allies not sending more AFVs earlier. UKR using a dang supply truck as a MG platform. If that were a marder or a bradley or a stryker it'd be 10x better.