danfrodo

Sharing this for the two videos. One showing rather impressive mud/water capability of a TOS-1A. The other of someone that will grow up in a free democracy because of the sacrifice of a lot of her countrymen. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/17/2153405/-Ukraine-update-New-Western-armor-is-just-days-away-from-arriving-in-Ukraine

Somewhere, sometime soon there's some fellers in trenches, under attack, thinking the only support they will get will be from 50 cal HUMMVs, then one of these rolls up & lets lose. VIVA LA FRANCE!

Putin: "Exactly! UKR will never see this coming because it makes no sense!" "HA HA! Brilliant!" exclaims Putin's staff, all shaking in their shoes.

Maybe RU will try to overwhelm UKR AD. Say they launch huge number of missiles & drones all timed to hit at same time, w aircraft coming in right on heels of this, while AD is already busy / reloading. It's the kind of thing desperate team would do. And this all gets to whether Putler is making decisions based on a feeling of desperation or out of clear sighted views to ongoing implications of his choices. Plus there's the political part of Putler probably pounding on his air force commander to 'do something!'.

Holy Moly, much ado about nothing overnight it seems. Yes, we are all testy about holdup on tanks. But it's only tanks and they won't be ready for a while. Allies are giving mountains of good gear to UKR that is making a difference every day for nearly a year. Do we want MBTs & bradleys ASAP? - yes. Do we want ATACAMS?- yes. Do we want NATO jets?- yes. But only the ATACAMS would make a diff today, everything else has a long lead time. And we also know that UKR crews are getting trained on Leo2s right now in Germany. I wish we had started the tank & IFV stuff 6 months ago so we could be past all this noise. But by the end of the year UKR will probably have a significant number of battalions equipped w NATO vehicles, some older, some newer. This is all just news-cycle noise that won't last more than a few weeks. Then we'll be surprised to see leopards (1s? 2s?) in UKR at some unknown training site and we'll say "how did that happen?"

The above plays into my thinking of how this war is being run & by whom. It seems the terror campaign would've been ordered by Putin, along w all the subsequent terror attacks that have not targeted UKR military. But does this also extend to land operations? Is Putin ordering Wagner into the suicidal attacks at Bakhmut -- and if so was his plan to both (hopefully) gain the city while destroying wagner at the same time? I am of the opinion (hope?) that Putler is playing Hitler/early-war-Stalin and ordering all sorts of desperate, ill advised attacks that will cost heavily later. Denys Davydov today shows video of whining Progozhin looking rather deflated and defeated. It's hilarious. can

Thank you, this was definitely headed off a cliff. But really chiming to wonder about point made by TheCapt & you above. For a long time we were hearing about RU tubes wearing out and the declining arty superiority that RU could expect plus burn rate of shells well above replacement rate. We've seen that over time -- the RU artillery strikes last June were much greater than anything we see now, and over greater frontage. So let's assume a couple things for argument: RU is in a shrinking arty situation (both guns & shells); arty is the only thing that keeps RU troops in the fight against UKR, whether on offense or defense. This makes current RU offensive even more desperate than it already seems as they are burning up the things they actually can't replace and most need. They can make more mobiks overnight (literally). And if the rumored massive air strike happens in a week or so, then they'll probably lose a bunch of their air force which also can't be replaced. Which all makes me wonder if Putin really is throwing all the dice? Hello, Germany 1918? Hello Germany Wacht am Rhein (the attacks right now) & Nordwind (the rumored attacks toward Kupyansk)?

Professional humor, well played Gpig.

That's just hurtful and cruel. And TankGod is listening to your blasphemies, so laugh while you can because one day you'll pay when you arrive at the pearly gates to see St Peter pop out of the turret of a sherman (he's very old school).

For me it was just general frustration day. It flows from my deep, unabiding love for all things 'tank'. My frontal lobe knows that for next ~6 months that arty tubes & shells & rockets, IFVs, AFVs, AD, all matter much more than tanks. But reptile brain just wants pretty tank things whacking things, ASAP.

so looks like drone directed tank fire? At what looks like ~1500m? Nice shoot & scoot mission.

Absolute f--ing s--tshow. This stage of the process should've happened 6 months ago. Hopefully at least the IFVs & AFVs are still going to be arriving. Bristling w ATGMs I hope.

Interesting summary here today, including some tankie comments. Did y'all know there won't be any UKR spring offensive?-- because RU will have won the war by then! Meanwhile, Bakhmut sector holds. RU allegedly building up for big offensive, at least in rumor. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2153100/-Ukraine-update-Bakhmut-holds-but-tankies-are-falling-ever-deeper-into-fantasy-land As per mentioned above, CV90s would be great. That 40mm gun is quite a beast.

ahhhhh, interesting takes from BillBinDC & you. So if RU thinks it's current offensive slaughterhouse strategy is forestalling UKR spring offensive, it will continue to burn up men & material in amounts that will come to haunt when the spring offensive comes. Kinda like The Emperor's old "fully operational death star" trick.

Great discussion, y'all. I ran out of likes whilst so many were deserving of one. US spends ~$700B a year on military. And as some astute person recently stated, we've spent $50B on UKR. Comparing that to the over $2T costs of Iraq & Afghanistan, how is the cost of UKR even an issue??

I am becoming a Gen Milley fan. "Russia has lost strategically, operationally, and tactically" His new remarks: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/14/2153048/-Joint-Chiefs-General-Mark-Milley-Calls-Putin-DEFEATED-Strategically-Operationally-And-Tactically

our friend Denys D thinks UKR making some local counterattacks N & S of Bakhmut. Gains measured in, literally, meters. But let us hope this is just the beginning of rolling back some spent RU forces.

For every case that can be made that end of Putler would not change Russia, there's a case to be made that it can. We just don't know. Will Russia continue to be a belligerent mess, constantly picking fights w the world? Will the new power brokers be too busy trying to hold the mess together and against internal competitors? Will Russian people (post-Putler) turn on the war once they start to understand the cost of this mess? Russia will be flippin' broke, and won't have a lot of folks lending a hand. India and China will like fleecing RU out of its fossil fuels, and China wants RU weak weak weak now that this is an option. Imagine if siberia splits off and China is its protector/benefactor, in exchange for cheap fossil fuels. So many ways this can go.

Really, really well stated.

Who thinks this? Capitalism works, overall. It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net. We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism? State run economies are baaaaaad at running..... a state economy . The free market, which sometimes actually exists, works -- meaning it only exists when there's the much req'd proper competition, lest things devolve rather quickly into trusts & monopolies.

The term we always see for this is "a rising tide lifts all boats". But only for those w boats.

These SW tools can solve optimization problems w lots of design variables in lots of ways to provide some set of 'good' solutions. But it's still just a plan. Aint now SW gonna implement nuthin, someone still has to get truck A to supply point B in the real world. And the solutions can be very sensitive to the parameters chosen -- chosen by humans. When I teach some of this stuff to engineers I always tell them to test their sensitivity to their assumptions. 'bound the problem' so they at least know how much danger they are in if any given assumption is off by some appreciable amount. Never want to run these tools & say "there's THE answer" unless you are darn sure you've got everything well understood.

That is cooooold, very funny! But why do you think QAnon is false? Everyone I know drinks baby blood -- it's actually in the vending machines of most federal gov't office buildings.

I don't disagree w anything you said, just wondering why this thread has anything to do w that. We've all had the dreaded bridge bug at some point, and I try to remember to save more often once I start crossing bridges. GeorgeMC bridges seem to work great so far. Whatever magic he was seems to be working. Steve aint coding bridge fixes.

How on earth was this vehicle spotted with how well it hiding under that tree? That's really impressive UKR observation, took me a while to see it w that tree cover.