danfrodo

That is a LOT of squirrels! and looks great! Glad to see germans doing german things. I sometimes wonder if my love of sausage of all kinds is a genetic condition passed down from my (mostly) bavarian ancestors.

I've been thinking RU was going to take Bakhmut, do a victory dance, then stop attacks while scrambling to redeploy in time for the ground to dry and UKR getting active. Assuming they've massed artillery in Bakhmut area this needs to be repositioned to where they think UKR will attack. If RU keeps pounding away at Bakhmut then they'll be forced to redeploy assets on the fly, w nothing pre-positioned. Which means columns being suddenly thrown together and shoved toward wherever, with the inevitable traffic jams -- great targets for HIMARS, JDAMS, etc. Wouldn't that be great. All RU's shells & tubes & armor suddenly on the move and then strung out on roads, seen by every drone & satellite around.

That was amazing. RU tried to counterattack, w armor support, but it seemed very disjointed. A few guys, then a dozen or so who get hit by arty, then a BMP, then a few more guys. A concerted response might've been more successful I'd think. Hopefully the UKR guys were OK going forward from this.

Indeed, Russia's Stable Genius has everything and everyone exactly where he planned it, wah ha ha ha ha ha.

OK Butschi, I stand corrected. There is new information as per your post above. I was unaware and therefore my statement was simply wrong that there was nothing new.

Pipeline: in the absense of any actual new information.... maybe we could stop about the pipeline, as SBurke hinted at. Meanwhile, it seems the illuminati of this forum are of the opinion that UKR is working Bakhmut as a killing ground for russians with an economy of force. That's what I optimistically think also. But as another of the illuminati mentioned, we need to be patient -- it's like watching mud dry..... Speaking of which, here's some more confirmation bias, along w nice bit about a UKR medic & released POW who will be an honored guest at white house. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156736/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-big-winter-offensive-has-managed-zilch-gains

The 154K troops -- is that dead or casualties? I know is dumb question but I am confused because I see such widely varying numbers and most sources don't say what the number means.

The obvious answer to motive is that Putin wanted to show Europe that he could and would bring down their infrastructure if they wouldn't behave. This little demonstration of the pipeline was something he was going to lose anyway so it was a good target. All the other explanations might be true, but the motive becomes very unclear.

Yeah, I think this is all about whether UKR is weak and that's why can't stop RU in Bakhmut OR is simply using economy of force to bleed RU while piling up resources for spring offensive. I think it's economy of force. As Steve or someone said yesterday, if UKR was in desperate straits they wouldn't be sending thousands of troops to NATO countries for extended periods of training. So to me it looks like UKR could do more around Bakhmut but doesn't want to get bogged down there, which is probably something RU wants.

Maybe was martians? maybe was hillary? maybe was hitler, because we don't really know he's dead, now do we? We get these snippets based on not much info and everyone runs w it (not saying you are running w this, FancyCat, you just reported what folks are saying). I am going to stick to the most obvious answer, RU, until I get compelling evidence otherwise. Some of the motive and potential blowback for other actors doesn't really add up -- maybe it was UKR, but it would be insanely risky for them relative to Euro relationships that they desperately need.

Why not just play the game then? There's mountains of content that don't require any work. I spend all day, every day, trying to make simulations work. For fun I just want to play ones that already work.

Once again we are faced w the choice between an evidence based reality and a faith based reality. We could be wrong but thinking other than we currently do might actually require some...... evidence.

Putin: "so you're saying there's a chance? And with just this one little trick?"

and yet another opinion about what's going on around Bakhmut. denys Davydov says UKR massing to the north around Siversk for possible penetration toward Bakhmut via Soledar to cut off RU forces. I doubt it during this mud, but maybe ISR shows a wide open flank? Probably just UKR messing w Prig's head, using Denys D to push some fake narrative. I guess we'll find out, hopefully soon.

indeed, indeed. fixed.

Summary from this feller for today. He wants to pull out of Bakhmut to the hills to the WEST. Hard to say right move here, but he believes the mud could hinder a withdrawal and make a mess for UKR, so says get out now. Some graphics showing the local elevation and supposed new defense lines. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/6/2156587/-Ukraine-update-It-s-time-to-pull-back-from-Bakhmut

Well, they are, quite literally, for hire.

Is Prig so stupid he doesn't realize how totally expendable he is?? As if no one else can run the wagner circus. If he keeps running his mouth he's gonna be dead.

Thanks for that post, MZ. And let me add: please, everyone, let's not go into a vietnam rabbit hole on this thread. Things are serious in UKR right now and let's keep the communication net free of irrelevant-to-UKR chatter. Someone really looking to dive into vietnam could start a new thread. I am guessing "make friends w folks that have fossil fuels?" and protect their new soveriegnty via weapons & support. In exchange for nice oil concessions, of course.

Prig is surrounded by militarily skilled criminals for hire. What is most likely is someone will simply outbid Prig, by a lot, and Prig will be dead. We already know these men make a living via murder for money, so it's an easy choice.

Dang, well said. Or as Bruce Springsteen said "my songs are about the distance between the american dream and the american reality"

So is the warcrimes of the past stuff done now, please? Or start a new thread? We can find crimes against humanity for bunches of countries: US, germany, belgium, UK, france, etc. But here we're focusing on the UKR war where there's plenty of crime to keep us busy w/o bringing up cold cases. RU breakup: we see lots of social media stuff of RU folks being super-nationalist, mothers saying it's OK if their sons die killing UKR people, etc. But I wonder how much of that sentiment we would find in the hinterlands and less ethnically russian areas? I say this because we know that Putin is grabbing many more per capita from these areas than from Euro-RU. This could greatly add to grievances pushing areas toward revolt. Here we are months into the Bakhmut fight and we still don't really know what's what. UKR is bleeding RU white -- maybe? RU is preempting UKR spring offensive by drawing in UKR mech brigades? RU has ammo shortage? No, wait, UKR has mortar shortage? I suspect we'll see these varying opinions until the ground dries. So I am going to try to not get too caught up in each day's events. Which is actually a good thing to do in general -- there's lots of stories that make big headlines that are forgotten a few days later. Sometimes good practice to wait & see what actually matters on the scale of a week, or a month. Like Joe/Jill Biden ordering the same thing for dinner -- that one really really matters, it was good to see the media covering such important matters at such length (of course someone must've been clicking on it or watching it, f--ing idiots)

I wasn't exactly sure what I most expected, then BillBinDC told me exactly what I was thinking but didn't know I was thinking.

To me, these guys seem very unlikely to ever have power in Moscow. I think they are far from the actual levers of actual power. I'd bet on someone in security apparatus that is actually in Moscow and can get powerful forces, like security services and military, behind him quickly to stabilize the situation. Why would military back prigozhin? Or some social media clown like Ghirkin? They are loud but they have no real power on their own -- if RU army stops supplies Wagner is just a bunch of starving bandits.

Now that is interesting..... using jets as a flexible, mobile air defense against drone/glider attacks. Very interesting.