The_MonkeyKing

Civilian targets being hit more and more: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/ this is heading towards Grozny and Aleppo

MiG-29s from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria and don't count out volunteer pilots. They are no different from other volunteer fighters

wow, just wow

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html "The latest: The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at press conference that member states will provide fighter jets at the request of the Ukrainian government, not just ammunition. He did not immediately provide more details." multiple sources on this.

I am from Finland. Just now today it seems Sweden and Finland are making a rapid coordinated move to join NATO with article 5 going in to effect at the moment of application. one source: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/51bc1d34-f37b-4195-8880-2879405e958e

How about we stay on the events. So NOT to get locked. Before.

The terms are all that matters. Russia and Ukraine are almost as far as possible from each other in this. Both sides have all the incentives to be the one that wants to negotiate and make peace. I believe Russians have been wanting to "negotiate" non stop for 8 years now...

I agree. Ukraine will not gain the initiative but Russians can lose theirs and in the future only able to gain it back locally. This will slow things down. Russia is on the clock and bodycount matters. To clarify I do think the future looks very grim for Ukraine.

I think that US intel is that is the best intel we can get. I hope Kiev doesn't fall. I hope Ukrainians can hold on. "worst case scenario for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight." I stand by what I said here. This doesn't mean it is going to turn the tide of the war. Russian might very well have such a strong position that no matter the will of the Ukraine people they are doomed either way. This is the analyst consensus, campaign taking days or weeks to finish. When bullets start flying things get extremely hard to predict.

overflowing recruitment offices no Ukraine formations surrendering or abandoning positions (we have seen this from Russians) many cases Ukrainians fighting to a last man or sacrificing their lives for the cause Ukraine cities and people are remaining stoic. (no panic, no looting) Government and officials showing no sing of wavering civilians indeed taking to arms I think we are looking at the "worst case scenario" for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight.

I don't think Kremlin is willing to lose this war. It is all in now. If they fail it is the end of this regime. We will see UKR cities erased from existence, chemical weapons... before any "surrender" from the Kremlin and to add we have seen how Russian fight wars even during Putin. Just look at Chechen war and Syria.

Yes, Russian can turn Ukrainian towns to Grozny and Aleppo. This is going to be slow, expensive in men, ammo, home opinion and world opinion. The clock is ticking against the Russians. If they lose the operative momentum it is going to be hard to regain it on a operational and strategic level.

I am certain. I would also expect Russian supply lines starting to get hit soon. They have cover a lots of ground fast with relatively little forces.

I think the main thread is still the UKR military, but the civilians will help. Operation in an urban environment where you can get shot from 360 degrees at anytime is significant hinderance to any force. Dislodging a near-peer opponent from huge urban areas is something entirely different. I don't think the current Russian forces are not capable of doing.

In terms of causing trouble for the Russian sure it is a gain. So win for the UKR total war effort. In other terms these urban fights can easily develop to something like Aleppo or Grozny. So lose for humanity at least in the sort term.

lets not get this thread locked. So don't even try to get the last words in or the moral high ground. Zero posts responding to anybody about anything other than events. Take that to PMs

https://liveuamap.com/ (often down atm) https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 (finnish map)

Seems we will be seeing urban battles in Kiev today.It looks to me very suicidal for the Russian to drive in to a major metropolitan area with determined enemy resistant with isolated company+ forces.Compare this to what US has had to do in major Iraq urban operations and still had trouble. Are they hoping to replicate the US "Thunder run"? I think they will get their teeth kicked in that case.

War is ugly business. When bullets start flying grannies and babies are going to die. I cannot say anything about this case you linked, but things like it happen for many possible reasons. I was referring to who was the aggressor in starting the conflict. Of course when war is ongoing both sides are aggressive and things get very ugly.

Difference is that Germany and Japan were the aggressors. I said: "gunpoint by a aggressor"

This is exactly the Russian problem with "half way measures". This would have to change. The agreement would have to be monitorable and enforceable from the Russian side. In my personal opinion country that ignores treaties signed at gunpoint by a aggressor have my support.

This is understandable from Ukraine. It is critically important for Ukraine as a country to stay as stoic as possible. If panic takes over Russia could win this crisis without any significant military operations. West has taken a new rarely seen tactic by sharing intelligence so widely and in real time. It has costs and benefits. One cost is risk "panic" in Ukraine. This is what Ukraine is trying to mitigate. If you look at Ukraine actions you can see they are on the same page about the thread with the west.

At this point only two ways out of this. Ukraine enters negotiations on Russian terms Russian military technical tools are applied until Ukraine enters negotiations on Russian terms The said Russian terms must be harsh. One main Russian problem sense 2014 has been that Ukraine has ignored most of the agreements it has signed at gunpoint (understandably). This would have to change.

some good analysis (timestamp 16:30) in short it is about the cost of inaction for Russia.

I have now encountered this in couple of places. Why is this important /worrying? What would this be a sign of?