The_MonkeyKing
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Posts posted by The_MonkeyKing
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34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
One of more unusual and interesting players in background of this conflict is Japan.
I read that Japanese PM just promised more direct military support in Hiroshima, too, in the form of combat vehicles and perosnnal eqiupment. There are rumours among some millexperts that Japanese are also very active in prividing signal and humint intelligence, but this will probably be widely only known years from now. Several interviewed volunteers in Int. Legion mentioned that they were surprised to see not-small amount of Japan volunteers, too.
unexpected
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not fake news after all
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Ukraine could lose some Patriot systems when Russia puts its whole weight into it. Would it matter ->NO
There are replacements and single losses are not significant. Also, it is best for Ukraine if all of Russia's deep-strike capability is going toward dead-end inefficient SEAD operations.
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Almost looked like Israel footage
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2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:
This just cannot be good. Apologies if this confirmation was already posted and it missed it.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen
New satellite imagery of an ammunition and explosives storage site just to the west of the Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky shows that most of the installation has been wiped off the map. Yesterday, videos emerged showing an absolutely gigantic fireball rising over the outskirts of Khmelnitsky. The destruction was clearly caused by a series of huge secondary explosions. Now we know for certain that it was indeed this site.
smells like a Russian strike made on some old ammo that is no longer in usable.
No nation would have such concentrated stockpiles while in Ukraine's position in terms of the deep strike threat from the enemy.
Also, Russia would have already targetted this earlier...
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Seems there is going to be >100 AMX-10RC in Ukraine
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2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Yeah I saw that, but maybe it is little surprise in the waiting. Time will tell.
When the first Leo2 announcement came from Germany, they stated they were giving one company immediately and a second one later on. Same as with the 40 Marder 1 they stated a further 40 were coming we now saw 20 of that 40 announced.
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3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Hope it is not a typo. More Leo2 for Ukraine.
The German language one stated "Leopard 1"
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The offensive of the Third Assault Brigade or how the 72nd Brigade of the Russian Federation "fled" from Bakhmut TEASER
looks to be a darn goldmine of footage to come
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7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
So we have any Swiss insiders here?
Does this actually mean anything in practice? For example, the US passed the lend-lease Act for Ukraine and has yet to use it. Because the legislation was not driven top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top by Congress.
Is this the Swiss government making a change in the Swiss foreign policy or something else, for example, parliament trying to put pressure on the government and failing?
At least here seems to be a case of slow gradualism:
"The measure is now expected to go to the broader parliament next month, although Salzmann said any changes would not take effect before March 2024 at the earliest.
The commission approved two separate motions that, if approved, would allow the executive branch to lift some restrictions on the export of weaponry and war materiel “in exceptional circumstances” and if required to ensure national security.
Another motion said the law on the export of war materiel could also be adapted to allow deliveries to countries “that are committed to our values” and have similar export controls to Switzerland, a text provided by the commission said.
Buyer countries could re-export Swiss-made weapons after five years within certain parameters. Re-export to countries that “severely” violate human rights would be banned, and the risk that the weapons could be used against civilians would have to be averted."
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2 hours ago, Huba said:
There is even more good news today -it seems that the Swiss will finally lift ban on delivery of their weapons to Ukraine! It means ammunition for Gepards, but more importantly Aspide/ Spada/ SkyGuard SHORADs from Italy and Spain can finally be sent too. These are quite numerous and slated for replacement anyway - just a thing to announce during Zelensky's visit in Rome today
https://de.euronews.com/2023/05/12/schweiz-waffenlieferungenSo we have any Swiss insiders here?
Does this actually mean anything in practice? For example, the US passed the lend-lease Act for Ukraine and has yet to use it. Because the legislation was not driven top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top by Congress.
Is this the Swiss government making a change in the Swiss foreign policy or something else, for example, parliament trying to put pressure on the government and failing?
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EDIT: HARMs on stations 3 & 4, and R-73s on stations 5 & 6.
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6 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
Sevastopol is fair game. Ukrainian territory is being defined by the 1991 borders. So strikes into Crimea are not considered cross border strikes.
The (military)port was leased to Russia until Russia terminated the agreement for full annexation. "Kharkiv Pact"
So the argument could be made but I would disagree with it.
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4 minutes ago, womble said:
I was thinking earlier that the prohibition on striking targets "in Russia" might mean that the Kerch Bridge is (at least for now) off limits for Storm Shadow, given that it is distinctly a Russian project. Or maybe it just means they can only hit up to the sea territory limit. Depends on what the lawyers and escalation-prognosticators say, I guess.
Nope, widely accepted to be a highly illegal project that grossly violates Ukraine's sovereignty.
That argument might be able to be made against the Russian navy in Russian ports like Sevastopol. Still, I do not think even this is the case.
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44 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
This is interesting. MALD decoys used parallel to the Storm Shadow strike in Luhansk?
MALD Decoy | Raytheon Missiles & Defense (raytheonmissilesanddefense.com)
I previously thought the Crimea Bridge is an unlikely target to be hit with Storm Shadow (because of the quantities required to overwhelm the AD). ADM-160 might make that equation different...
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8 minutes ago, Huba said:
Reportedly a fuel depot. Some prominent RU telegrams suggest that it was a cruise missile, though no evidence at this point, and IMO unlikely, given the distance from the front line.
Very few other systems could hit that. Especially given the air defense. I see a storm shadow as a possibility
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I do wonder what these systems can achieve. Supply for Ukraine might be a couple hundred to start with and another couple hundred per year in the future.
In the past, we have seen around a hundred cruise missiles strike an airfield and fail to achieve the desired impact. (Syria)
I would be interested in seeing a relevant expert's analysis of these systems potential in Ukraine.
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very interesting video including but not limited to the "rock paper scissors" nature of different offensive and defensive approaches:
Julian Spencer-Churchill (PhD Columbia 2001) is an associate professor in political science at Concordia University, Montreal.
"truth table" of attack/defense strategies:
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unexpeted
EDIT: suspected photos have been taken with the training vehicles. So not for ukraine necessarily
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37 minutes ago, Splinty said:
At least in the case of the M1 Abrams, the ammo isn't stored openly in the hull or turret. It's stored in an armored compartment at the back of the turret and is separated from the crew compartment by armored blast doors. The loader opens the doors with a switch to access the rounds. The ammo compartment has blast panels on the turret roof in case of an ammo cook off.
Technically Abrams also has a bunch of unprotected shells inside the hull next to the driver and next to the engine compartment. This is with full ammo load.
Leopard 2 has even more. Only 15 are in the turret blowout compartment and rest of the around 40 are "unprotected" next to the driver.
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53 minutes ago, Artkin said:
Lol whats the point of the blowout panels when the carousel is just going to explode anyway
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Hole in one, awesome clip. Couple hundred dollar grenade kills a 4 million dollar machine.
What is the point of having ammo stored in hull unprotected in Western tanks as well?
The carousel rarely ignites and is actually lower and so better located than most Western tanks hull ammo.
What ignites easily on Soviet model tanks is the extra ammo that is stored all around the tank. It this point neither side uses storage outside the carousel anymore.
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33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
It is a non-sensical dictum. No war ends until all sides decides it is over. The Gulf War, the winners had enough and no longer advanced. WW 1 Germany, the winning side did not pursue total unconditional victory, leaving clear communications of defeat on the table, and a lot has been written about how that was a strategic mistake. WW2 the Allies kept going to the point that the losing side was pretty much entirely out of options - pretty much how indigenous resistance went in NA.
To say "the loser decides" is looking at one side of the coin to fit a narrative, not objective analysis and assessment.
All sides have to agree to stop the war or it continues, war is a co-dependent system - to try and frame this as "loser decides + Russia is losing = Russia decides" is to over inflate Russian power and agency and denude our own - a trend some western pundits have had pretty much since the beginning of this thing. This whole "Russian's have all the initiative" nonsense, is garbage analysis and has not borne out accurate assessments of how this war has progressed pretty consistently.
I think it is more about the winner decides first that it is over, after this the loser has to come to terms with the situation
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
The best trench footage I have seen so far. Radio traffic + GoPro + drone footage. ENG subtitles