Jump to content

Kraft

Members
  • Posts

    746
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

Posts posted by Kraft

  1. 5 minutes ago, zinz said:

    https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024

    ISW has not seen any indication of that. Besides the cenit position 

    I think it needs to be repeated everytime the NYT is quoted but their board has russians working on it, that have previously worked for russian state newspapers.

    Anytime they quote "anonymous sources" discard the trash article into the next bin.

  2. 19 minutes ago, JonS said:

    That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year?

    Not only that but I find the anecdote of a missing mortar tube being indicative of deep material shortages and extrapolation to war of attrition outcomes very stretched.

    Theres shortages on both sides and temp lack of supply, but I think everyone is aware where the shortages are significantly worse...

  3. 26 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

    Source?

    Quote

    Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), confirmed to Kyiv Post the death of Russian pilot Kuzminov, who seized control of a Russian armoured combat Mi-8 helicopter and brought it safely to an airbase in the Kharkiv region back in August of 2023.

    "We can confirm the fact of death," Yusov told Kyiv Post, providing no additional details.

    According to Russian media, Maksim Kuzminov was shot dead, with at least five bullets in his body. He was found in an underground parking lot in the municipality of Villajoyosa, in the province of Alicante, Spain.

    Last August, Ukrainian intelligence conducted a successful operation "Titmouse" - Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov voluntarily brought a Mi-8 helicopter from Russia to Kharkiv region, into the hands of awaiting Ukrainian military intelligence.

    Here

  4. Also some very much russian news

    Quote

    Katsaps shot 6 captured Ukrainian soldiers at the Museum position (on Zenith)

     

     👤 The brothers recognized the fighters from the video, which was recently shared by Muscovites on the Internet. On the footage, shot bodies are lying in the premises of Garage No. 1 .

     

    ⚔️ The museum was located on the territory of the former Zenit military base. Due to the fact that the positions were surrounded for several days, everyone who was on foot had to fight their way to the main forces. Unfortunately, there were 4 non-walking boys (wounded) and 2 more walking ones who had no chance to make their way without evacuation.

     

    ⏰ Let's briefly reproduce the chronology of those events.

     

    ▶️ Having broken through to Tsarska Okhota through a pipe , the enemy then used another exit 1,500 meters above the Zenith. And accordingly, he began to establish himself there. Katsap continued the pressure from Opytny, moving towards their fellow freaks there. United, they formed the entourage of Zenit.

     

    ▶️ For a long time, no decision was made to leave, until 13.02 BC and water supplies began to run out. There was an unsuccessful attempt to unblock just the fighters, who were then shot. Already understanding the tragedy and the futility of defense, the command was given to break through the battle in small groups. An unpleasant incident happened here, which was already described by another fighter on Instagram , when the commander said about the wounded "Throw them to the ground and burn everything." The trouble is that it was the wounded fighter who heard it.

     

    ▶️ On February 14, small groups started leaving, and the wounded were promised evacuation, which was to arrive on February 15. One of the surviving fighters remained with 5 wounded. Another Panda fighter will write before his death: " I don't care what will happen to me, but the guys are sorry ." The next day, approximately from 12 o'clock, the Katsaps came to the position, and already at 4:02 PM, footage of the shot soldiers appeared in the Katsap media.

     

    ▶️ Most likely, the boys were shot immediately on February 15. Another one of the fighters managed to write before his death " no bread, no meat, and half a bottle of water left ." In the footage with the bodies, one of the soldiers remained holding that bottle after death.

     

    🔄 A series of mistakes and procrastination with decisive action led to such a tragedy. And the enemy once again proved that he does not care about all the rules of war.

     

  5. Navalny could've been the spark that ignites the powder keg, had it existed.

    Reality: a handful of women and dainty men getting dragged away by 100kg police troopers in riot gear. No mass protests. No escalating violence.

    Meanwhile, the russians at the front living among piles of uncollected, rotting orc corpses rather die fighting to the last man or kill themselfs or their captors with grenades before surrendering. 

     

    41 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

    There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely. 

    I agree that 2024 will be a year of giving ground and attempting to hold the line BUT the future development beyond that hinges on the US election and Europes ability to scale its production up.

    If Biden wins and the reps decide to bail on their designated loser, support could turn the tide.

    If Biden loses, Europe may still be able to catch up. The politicians seem to have understood it'll be their people next at last.

  6. 21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

    Anthony Perpetua is clocking Russian losses at effectively double the Swedish tally. We'll see who is right eventually.

     

    I only found the daily twitter updates from him, does he have a cumulative list for comparison? Sorry I am terrible navigating twitter

  7. 2 hours ago, billbindc said:

    I am hearing that the Russians lost something on the order of 1100 vehicles of various types attacking Avdiivka. If correct, Russia is fighting a war of attrition...against itself.

    I am curious about the tally. Lets see, Avdiivka was the most one sided battle in terms of vehicle losses.

    Screenshot-20240217-204625-X.jpg

    224 tanks, more than twice the total Ukrainian losses. Best Case scenario, a 10-1 ratio.

    Using the Swedish FOI as a source, russia builds/refurbishes ~44 tanks/m. So they are short about a month, or gained 2 months if all the abandoned vehicles can be recovered.

    Screenshot-20240217-204705-X.jpg

    With a production rate of close to 0.

    And foreign aid (pledged or delivered) as of my knowledge: 0.

    Loss of 21, that will likely not be replaced within.. half a year, full year? Unknown.

    You can draw it parallel for IFVs and the rest, although I think those are more likely to be replenished by the West albeit in insufficient numbers.

  8. 2 hours ago, Holien said:

    Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...

    Do you realise how difficult it is to do stuff in government and you are blaming them for not doing it all in one year....

    What a joke....

    I would argue it is more a result of the overly cautious escalation management, which threw a pebble while russia was going all in and showed little to no signs of serious backing off.

     

     

  9. 55 minutes ago, billbindc said:

    Remember the people who gave Putin reasons to think that the reaction to Navalny’s death wouldn’t be that significant: 

     

    What a squealing little worm.

    I know LotR is more popular here (for good reasons) but he reminds me of that rat of Ronald Weasely who turned out to be a cowardly traitor

  10. On the topic of rotation and casulties, situation in Zenit and Avdiivka overall. 

    Quote

     "110 OMBR, **** YOU!"

    Over the past few weeks, this is the most common phrase in my mind. And although I don't like the text that follows, because it sounds like whining (I want to be an indomitable warrior), I need to speak out and come to conclusions. I am on the verge of writing a refusal, to be honest. It's a trend here now.

    A lot has happened in all this time, namely, from the end of March 2022 to the present. And this is, for a moment, being on the contact line for 22 months. Rotation, no we haven't heard of it. All right, we've accepted it, okay, we've been dealt a hand of cards, we're serving. But there must be a limit to everything. Knock, knock!

    Under certain conditions, we could still somehow fight these infinity wars. But no, the external and internal factors have crossed the already stretched limits. Therefore, we feel that we are living out our last days here at our positions.

    From the outside, it is the enemy, it is a war, it is clear. We fought a war with the enemy on the frontline, no problem at all. Okay, now the left flank, okay, it will be fine. Oh no, now the right flank. Well, at least we have a rear! They started attacking from behind. Hey, isn't that a wake-up call? Attacking from all sides is like cutting off oxygen to a drowning man. Logistics was a disadvantage. The resource did not arrive, and the soldiers are in short supply. And it's not clear what was feeding him before. Because the schedule is such that if you go on leave once for 10 days, you are lucky. I was lucky to go on such a holiday, and then I caught the debris with my neck. I was home for a month, it was a thrill. There was also the practice of going to civilisation for a few days. For those who agreed. I made arrangements and went several times. Those who were silent were never there. But this is not a panacea. This is what we have been doing all this time.

    By the way, people are not the same as they were at the beginning. 80% for sure. I'm the only one left in the platoon. As for the company, you can count on one hand. A kind of rotation. If only one more year to 36 months, yeah, yeah.

    Of course, there has always been a lack of support from the "big brother" and the means to conduct infantry warfare. But at least they gave us the opportunity to build those damn huts and dig holes. We still had the effort and logistical capabilities to bring a log and buy bags. And that was despite the fact that the average age of the men was 40-45. + And then there were the chronic ones.

    Things are much worse now. There is a severe shortage of staff. Whatever broke, broke completely. The enemy's advantage has not disappeared, but only expanded. Our near encirclement gave the enemy new firing sectors. And there are almost no fortifications left. There will definitely be no new ones. There will be useless casualties. To the last soldier. Someone will be promoted.

    Movement in war is everywhere at night. But a new stage of the arms race has come. Night drones are very good at targeting everything they can. Art, equipment, night kamikazes. If they see you coming out, they immediately give the go-ahead to the always-ready machine gunners, RPGs and a ****ing sniper who has already taken out a bunch of people. And leaving is even harder. Everything depends on the reinforced concrete balls of our driver. And the snags we buy and repair ourselves.

     

    What else? As soon as we started to suffer the first losses, we immediately started to have regular chaos. We finally switched from de jure to de facto service. At the moment, in fact, we don't have a company, we have a company stronghold. There is no company commander, but a "senior". In general, I hate this concept, because I had to carry it myself. The senior is at the lower levels, so when you need something, Vitya, and if you don't like something, go **** yourself. So there is no company commander, the deputy is in the gate. But the deputy for morale and psychology has appeared recently. There is someone to receive reports of refusal. There are no platoon commanders, no chief sergeants, no squad leaders. There are only senior officers. And most of them have been in the war for the last week. I don't know, maybe I'll put on one more outfit and let this train derail. I can't wait to be transferred to Azov. I will leave Kuzia. And become a criminal. If I live to see it.

    Quote

    The legendary fortified unit, the Zenit military base. In my previous post, I wrote about the conditions in which we had to serve. And so, it all came to a critical point.

    Preservation of personnel, removal of weapons and equipment, competent mining and burning of the remnants of what we called positions. It would have been nice, but no.

    As in politics, no one likes unpopular decisions. Withdrawal of personnel is one thing, heroic defence is another. You can get a promotion for that.

    There were two attempts to withdraw. On the first night, 14 February, the top ten left. They had to engage in a small arms battle. The artillery was already brought in. Only three wounded made it back. And if two of them made it back in the dark. Then the evacuation, the last one was evacuated in the morning. I and three other volunteers carried him. And daytime is not the right time for movements, and even such heavy ones. And as a natural result. From one wounded, there were 4 more of us. And I was very lucky that I did not lose my mobility, but only got the Joker's smile.

    Okay. New day, new darkness. The master plan was either in place or gone. New groups were being formed. I didn't go into it. They said a box would come for the wounded. I relaxed.

    The groups were leaving, one after the other. There was zero visibility on the street. It was just stupid survival. A kilometre across the field. And a bunch of blind seals controlled by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is dotted with our corpses.

    I did not stay to wait for the evac. I led the group and went into the unknown. They covered me. I ****ed up the group. But in the end, I got to the point. And how the first groups died in the face of the enemy.

    The next ones were led a little bit around. This allowed those who were lucky to get out. Evak did not come. The last group left the bunker. And this dialogue on the radio wounded us to our very core:

    "Wounded. Is there no evac? Commander. No, there will not be, leave 300 and burn everything.

    He didn't know he was talking to a wounded man. There were at least six people left. And it was also difficult to read their messages, in the chat in the signal. Their desperation, their doom. It will always stay with us. Only the bravest die.

    And now, after all the horrors. Being completely exhausted, injured and with minimal belongings. And even though we are in Avdiivka, we are ready to leave. The command continues to pull. And even, ready to bring BC and supplies, and leave us to die.

    110 OMBR 1st battalion, 2nd company. Help!

    Screenshot-20240216-092834-Instagram.jpg

  11. 5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Ukrainians reportedly left "Zenith" in the south (position as held for 1,5 year), but rather without fight. There are various news as to state of Ukrainian forces in what appears to be a cauldron around southern part of the town being closed fast. Some people seem to be panicking a little bit, but it seems situation is very difficult, with one-two field roads as avenues of escape. They are withdrawing but Russian pressure on the flanks is rising.

    The more threatening is the push from the north, which is about to cut off the escape road. Current ground conditions arent ideal to move through the fields

  12. 7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Another tidbit we've learned is that Russia refuses to let the soldiers mobilized in 2022 be released from duty

    This is not generally true, I know mobiks who returned out of combat service and not because they are missing a leg.

×
×
  • Create New...