Kraft
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Posts posted by Kraft
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Western resolve in opposing/appeasing putin is starting to bear its first fruits.
QuoteChina is removing the term “peaceful” in reference to the People’s Republic’s desired reunification with Taiwan.
China will “resolutely advance the cause of China’s reunification,” said Premier Li Qiang’s first work report.
In earlier reports there was talk of “peaceful reunification”.
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Havent seen the news here yet but russia officially ended Armata development, citing its high cost as mine clearing vehicle
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On the topic of western aid, the total number of ATGMs supplied to Ukraine by France has been declassified.
The number of missiles remains classified, in an effort to maintain strategic ambiguity.
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40 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:Quote
- Effort to force a vote (discharge petition) will begin this week, but is unlikely to succeed
I thought this was the leading theory as to how the situation can and will be resolved in the end?
How would they even pressure him if they cant go around his block?
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27 minutes ago, Holien said:
There we go with simple answers and simple statements....
How would the logistics worked with all those tanks?
You do know the tip of the spear needs a decent length of well crafted wood behind it to make it effective.
Look Steve earlier has as ever given a far more detailed effective response.
Sure there could have been things we should have done sooner and more effective.
Sure Germany could have stepped up sooner. It would certainly have helped but there were / no easy answers, hindsight is easy...
You're saying the wait was for this logistic train:
QuoteArticle is from: Jan 3, 2024
Ukraine's dwindling supply of Leopard 2 tanks aren't being repaired because Europe doesn't have enough spare parts, German politician says
As a result, only a "very small number" of Leopard tanks delivered by Germany are still operational in Ukraine, according to Schäfer.
He highlighted an "urgent need for action" to bolster the spare parts supply, saying that Ukrainian forces also caused further damage to their Leopard tanks by attempting repairs.
One would think, "urgent need for action" came within 22 months? Lets meet next year to discuss "simple answers" again, btw "its not possible" is the simple answer, it just magically throws away government responsibility. Trademark Scholz excuse too, for things that wound up happening mere weeks later. When it just so happened to become "possible".
Dont confuse political will with military limitations, we are talking about the USA that can move entire Divisions around the globe in a matter of days. Im sure they can handle a repair shop.
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8 minutes ago, billbindc said:
For the record, the only Abrams in Afghanistan were with the USMC and they were about as useful as a 63 ton doorstop.
Yes I corrected the text, similarly, comparison with Iraq or Saudis does the same.
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56 minutes ago, Holien said:
Could have been worse than where we are now as Ukraine would have had to take more troops off the front line to learn and integrate an influx of equipment.
You clearly forget the discussions at the time that we needed to send soviet era kit as easily used by Ukraine.
We could not just dump modern kit into Ukraine and expect it to be used effectively.
People want easy answers. This war isn't easy and there is no magic wand. Sure we need to better upgrade Ukrainian military forces, but that ain't easy...
Training for Leopard started in February 2023. They were in active combat, in June 2023. Had there been the will to send these tanks in 2022, they could have been ready by the time the Kherson/ offensive took place/had commenced. It started even later. This is analog to every other weapons system.
The "not possible" is just a moral veil for "not in the interest".
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17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Equipment and money = yes. Direct action = no. So you are seriously going to use Cold War spending with this current war? That is your start point? Ukraine is happening within an entirely different context. I mean Cold War defence spending during the Cold War is an entirely different league:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget
And now we are back to "what have you done for me lately?" Like the Western world is some sort of war concierge.
Did I say direct involvement?
No. My example involved the units that drove into minefields, or as you called it "recon in force".
Now, I surely dont have the military education, but least I invoke the russia is hanging on by mere threads idea, this was mostly true during the first counter offensive, which literally saw police, swat and !sailors! in trenches, had they stopped an armored push the size of 5-7 brigades without minebelts, hedgehogs, bunker and tunnel networks, no FPV or Lancets, and closer to parity air power? Or would it had been a complete collapse? You tell me.
Now say, that instead of 1970s scraps and rusting cold war stock, more units with the hundreds of available Bradleys and Abrams were involved, the outcome would be the same?
But alas, here we are, 2 years later and Kerch bridge attacks upset Mr Putin is still the talking point by which aid is denied. Whatever it takes, though.
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16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Just stop it. This war would be over in a day if the US and West fully slammed down...and then we would be dealing with the next war right behind it. In what universe do you imagine Russia quietly skulking back over the border, avoiding all eye contact and gracefully accepting defeat if the West rolled in all the dice?
Should we support Ukraine, absolutely. Should we fight this war for you, no freakin way. Don't believe me? Ok, let's take a look at the last time two nuclear powers got involved in a conventional war...oh wait, there really have not been any.
Closest we ever came was here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts
And this skirmish was within a year of Pakistan becoming a nuclear power (maybe). So in human experience we have gone to incredible lengths to keep nuclear powers out of direct conventional wars...why do you suppose this is?
Cut the "West is to cowardly" and "nukes are not a thing" BS because it clearly is an underlying calculation in this war and just because "you think so" is not going to change that.
Vietnam war saw US soldiers die by soviet and chinese equiptment, how much was the US willing to accept before sending nukes to the soviet union for that?
- cumulative 1.395 trillion purely military aid, 1.765 trillion infrastructure by soviet union. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B01495R000500050038-4.pdf
- Using inflation calculator, cumulative rate of inflation at 594.6%, thats equivalent to 9.690 trillion military aid in todays worth, killing GIs. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
but sure, sending 31 abrams and a one-use atacms delivery after 2 years is equivalent to cold war tension and escalation. Im not sure, did the soviet union also start by debating whether rockets would be too much to send??
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4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
If 80%* of the materiel sent over pre-war hadn’t dissappeared in the morass of corruption, maybe more would have arrived on day 1. The reality is that a lot of things went wrong in the run-up to this mess (including pre-2014), and as much as I’d have liked more support to given faster, Ukraine has had missteps on their side too.
*Secondhand, but trustworthy source who was involved pre-war.How many tanks, planes, cruise missiles were lost prewar? Oh right, there were none.
I specifically mentioned day 1, today would look a lot different had there been the forces that ended up driving into a 40km deep minebelt, which was only possible because of weak and undecisive aid, ready in year 1 when russia was throwing ship crews into trenches.
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18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
But it won't be Western support that kills Ukraine in this war - it can damn well hurt it and create really terrible end-states. But the mess that is western support at times, pales in comparison to what will happen if Ukrainians lose the will to fight. As we learned in both Iraq and Afghanistan - we can send people all the money and guns, but if the will to create their own future is not there it will all mean nothing.
Chicken and Egg.
This war would be over had any major western power fully commited on day 1, instead of discussing if sending 3 boots and a bandage more would upset putin.
It will be over if the political games in US and Europe continue on and on, that kill service men and women every day.
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1 minute ago, MikeyD said:
I get the impression Putin's standing order is to 'Attack' every day, no matter how futile or suicidal or pointless. The whole point is to be seen to be attacking. Every day, somewhere along the line there's an attack of some sort.
It is the most opportune moment before the speaker is bypassed and billions in aid arrive.
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40 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Why did they even attempt this death ride in a BTR of all things? Particularly In the absence of UKR artillery they would be better off scouting on foot
Its about 1 km on foot over an empty field from Stepove to Berdychi, even without artillery that would barely work given FPV and a few MGs to hold them in place. Then another 1km before they can really touch defensive positions properly.
They could do it at night, but Bradleys there have thermal so even more disadvantage. According to the marks there, they tried to cross on foot too and received drones.
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13 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
A video and some images near Avdiivka.
Bradleys are my favorite IFV now, if only they could take on T-90s in CMBS
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14 minutes ago, zinz said:
Money quotes:
Well it sounds like there is work being done on substitute materials
Making artillery production dependent on China, thats a very big brain move.
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13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
This is grotesque. I know I'm supposed to be all manly and indifferent, but this is a crazy and horrible waste of life.
I guess they are Russians?
They are on that road because they willingly decided to go and kill the defenders at the end of it.
They could have started a mutiny, surrendered, gone to prison for resistance, but reality is they volunteered most likely for money and because they belive in it.
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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Russians (?) reportedly tapped talk between German officers regarding, among others, quality of Taurus missiles. Interesting details regarding targeting processes and inventive ways to bypass formal declarations for their delivery to UA. English subs.
40 minutes and filled with details appears to me pretty genuine, especially considering russias "quality" in other faked content so far.
- Taurus discussion starts at 5 minutes in
- No one has a clue why Scholz is blocking Taurus
- They hint at US soldiers being there and confirm UK troops on the ground overseeing the targeting.
- They also confirm the UK troops would be willing to work with Taurus so German troops dont have be there. So thats another blatant lie from Scholz.
- UA learned patriots within weeks and surprised the crews how good they are used
- Stormshadow/-- mounts can be modified to fit Taurus relatively easy
- hitting easy targets: few weeks
- Hitting the bridge seems difficult, Stormshadow/-- got shot down quite often? Training will be 4-6 months
- Stormshadow and Scalps are pretty much all used and UK/FR want Germany to deliver Taurus before sending more themselfs
- Only single digits amount of Su-24 are left
Next question, how the **** does russia get access to this?
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Under the right conditions, Canada open to sending noncombat troops to Ukraine, Defence Minister Bill Blair says
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Data before january on positions is not accurate as tracking didnt start properly then.
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux". Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that. As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!." Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia. We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance. This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives
Yes, those comments tend to come more from people not involved at all with the war who mostly base it on common stereotypes, while I feel most of the russia sucks crowd is following the war but for the most part just what ends up on twitter.
QuoteI gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together. As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war. We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS). However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this. I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses. Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated. Does anyone think Putin planned for all this? That Russian society was ready for this? No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us. Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.
I would argue current russian army in relation to ZSU is the best it has been since before the war. They have found strategies with which to overcome large defenses, poor troop quality and low morale. Those are btw higher than during the first year of the war, while those who volunteered to defend are now exhausted or dead and followed by people who are less eager.
Furthermore, the western supplies have essentially dried up - majority of what is being pledged now is 2 - 3 years away from being delivered - what had been pledged is being missed, like the million artillery shells - all the resources are currently commited and getting pushed back [although current mass charges arent sustainable for rus but rather an opportunistic reaction to the current state of the defense].
There is ofc the occasional T-54 meme driving around but the commanders know that they are good enough to successfully fullfill current russian strategy, and since having showed up a year or more ago, still not in large quantities but rather the odd tank here and there in a long list of T-72s and T-90s, I doubt it is an indicator of desperation and rather someones little side project restoring these lol.
As for who breaks first, I hope the weak politicians who are bowing down to putins nuke extortions, because they still react like scared little deer whenever putin lets a supposed nuke drive around the block and get replaced with men who know how to deal with that obvious behavior.
This war can be won decidedly with putin backing himself into his little contained reich playing happy dictator in his golden palace, but instead they risk Nato troops ending up in situations like the picture I posted today.
3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:Well, that's one way to interpret it. The other way is that we're documenting and discussing the things that will, almost certainly, lead to Russia's collapse so that when it does happen we don't have to be in the "wow, that was a total surprise! Who saw that coming?".
For years before this war started I argued with people that Russia would get its arse handed to it if it attacked Ukraine. At the time people said I was nuts. I was right more than wrong, they were wrong more than they were right. A big part of this discussion now is similar. The evidence is there to support certain premises, and Russia collapsing is absolutely one of them.
The problem is timescale. I have *NO* idea when Russia will collapse. Could be 2 minutes from now, could be 2 decades. But it will collapse. It's been heading in that direction for some time before this war and, as I have argued repeatedly, it is one of the reasons for this war at this time.
It's kinda like talking to a scientist that says "the Sun will explode and with it all life on Earth will cease". Someone then says "I see no evidence of that happening". Just because it's billions of years away doesn't mean the scientist is wrong and the person arguing everything is fine is correct. It all depends on perspective.
Steve
Of course and there are lines where putin will receive a bullet in the head by his own people but that line has been drawn up time and time again until everyone realized that it likely wont happen when all the people thinking it fell out of windows.
This has to be evaluated within the context, so far russia has surpassed any imaginable amount of absolutely pointless suffering, anyone a year ago seeing hundreds of wagner convicts die painful deaths asked why are they still signing up for this?
The question arises just the same now. I watched more than a hundred dead russians today, yet the question why they do it still has too many answers. russians were willing to spend more than an entire decade of afghanistan misery on a frontline city that in peacetime could be walked through in 2 hours and the reaction in russia is a few people on the street, singing, thinking woe is us.
Imagine this amount of death and destruction on the Nato side, without overwhelming US airpower winning the war before it started. Because the amount of graves the west is willing to dig is the literal worth of article 5. If we take ww1 as a guideline, we are still short a million dead russians, famine and a civil war before the time is up.
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Stepove, russian infantry supported tank
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A few comments by Ben Hodges on the Macron/Scholz/lack of clearly defined strategy situation
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2 hours ago, panzermartin said:
The continuous comedian approach on the russian army and state, didn't help the overall effort I think.
It is my biggest gripe in this forum. Closely followed by the idea russia is hanging on by mere threads, collapsing any day now.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Kraft
The important part is the loss ratio, which at 2.2 while purely on defense is far too low. Not just to attrit russia, but to not be attrited.
Not just in vehicles, but FPV strikes are even worse, russia has near parity, but X times the amount of troops on the line to absorb the losses.
With every day russia becomes more dominant in the force equation, and the rate at which the front moves increases.
Current developments in Orlivka will expadite it