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Kraft

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Posts posted by Kraft

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    13 hours ago, poesel said:

    I guess a problem for reporting losses by respectable media outlets is that you can't really verify the numbers. Both sides lie, and they would be nuts if they didn't. So there are basically only rumors to report, and it's IMHO better that they don't.

    Another problem is sources. If the news channels don't have their own teams, they have to use 'official' material. Again, that will be propaganda from both sides, some side more than the other (ahem).

    We are used to watching Twitter videos. But those are all 'unverified' and you can understand them only in context. Another thing that makes them unusable for mass media.

    This war is a difficult topic. Even though this is the one war since WWII where it's clearest which side are the baddies.

    There is a database with 15 thousand confirmed losses. It wouldnt take too much effort to check it, right now like 3 people are doing all the geolocation and duplocate checking work for it.

    The big outlets have enough resources. The current projections for when russia runs out of tanks is being done by 1 person who finances his satelite images by donations and himself. Surely the BBC can do better?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    12 hours ago, poesel said:

    Because it is an easy-to-understand metric that is good to measure and visualize.

    Single value metrics for complex systems usually suck. Better metrics are hard to understand unless you know what's going on. Since the public does not, its km^2.

    Even putting losses into the equation is not really happening.

    I dont think Ive heard a single take on the difference between the near collapse of the russian front in 22 when they left brigades worth of intact equiptment to flee with civilian vehicles to the ww1 style mass casulties forward inching we have now where the only thing captured is ruins and rubble.

    I saw a 7 minute video of a russian walking through his position yesterday. Every 2-3meters you'd see a russian lying in the earth. I counted more than 100 dead bodies and even more left behind gear indicating people that were recovered there, dead or alive.

    The pg13 ones that dont need to be blurred that showcase the insane amount of burnt tank columns dont make it to the outside media either. 

    If it was really about "shock-media" in the west Id think they'd play those sorts of Videos @Yet

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

    It's undoubtedly encouraging Russia to continue, the West shot itself in the foot over the lack of ramp up, will, and ignorance to increase its MIC capability.

    I mention again, who the hell in Ukraine wants to enlist and spend their time getting shelled by Russia pumping out these shells while Europe lifts their nose at Indian made artillery shells? And America acts like a absolute idiot? More equipment to Ukraine. I'm actually starting to get pissed by the high dollar amounts touted by the West, numbers dammit, not cost.

     

    Shouldn't a more modern RPG warheads melted copper jet have no issue going ~1 meter through air after hitting the sheet metal roof and still penetrate a turret beneath?

    The protection does seem to be working, Im sure there have been attempts at taking them out with FPV but nothing was ever published, so they likely all failed so far.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    The hue and cry of “lost summer offensive” was echoing across the infosphere last summer while the UA was basically doing the same thing the RA is doing now.  But with the RA it is “Ukraine cannot stabilize the front!”

    There is a somewhat large risk of further breakthroughs in the Avdiivka direction from recent days and the "fortifications" are miles behind the current frontline, while russia was sitting in a tunnel/trench network that made any exploitation impossible. 

    Had the first line been breached there would've been 3 more hurdles before just touching Tokmak.

    The line south of Ocheretyne and Soloviove will likely be abandoned if the current advances north of it continue and cant be stopped with new US aid. As of today it appears in the rumor mill that the russians are successfull there. 

    It may be a 7km wide frontline withdrawl by ~6kms, what that does to the whole of the front I dont know but it surely isnt an improvement and may cause issues nearby

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Lets not drag gender politics from twitter into this when so many more interesting things are happening.

    I believe this will remain a missile/drone campaign to further reduce already low AD stocks in the west and divert attention, cause instability and uncertainty. 

    Lets see how much AD the US suddenly has available if Israel asks for it.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    Ukrainian manufactured Aeroprakt a22 ultra light aircraft being used as a kamikaze drone on Shahed factory. Range to target ~ 1200km.

    Supposedly this one didnt hit the factory but a building (dormitory) infront of it, but there was another explosion, maybe that one hit the production facility 

     

    Maybe instead of scrapping A-10s, they should be converted to well armored drones?😄 This plane survived 8 hours in russian airspace

    5

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, sfhand said:

    My plan is to have this be my only post in this thread... I've known about the thread from day one. I really only have one question about the whole thing.

    How can anyone know the truth of the matter?

    Yeah, when we invaded Iraq because of WMD's I was one of the ones questioning the decision. I watched in disbelief Colin Powell's address to the UN, the one with the crudely made computer generations of Iraq's supposed mobile WMD labs. Not satellite photos... crudely made computer representations - the lack of no photos was a big tell. I also read all of Hans Blix's report about there being no proof of WMD's and his willingness to keep investigating.

    Why was I so skeptical of the US government? I missed the Vietnam draft by 2 years. The Pentagon papers clearly showed those "in command" were lying through their teeth about the state of things. For me, this type of government mendacity erodes trust. Fast forward to Iraq and my saying to a friend during a work break meal as we watched the opening salvo Shock and Awe bombing on TV "I can't believe anyone believes the reasons for this after having gone through Vietnam". My friend's response "Obviously you don't know anyone who lives in New York" (guess where he was from). It was a very enlightening moment about the human condition and yet not enlightening at all about the justifications for the war.

    Then there's Russia-gate. You all know it has been thoroughly debunked right? In a court of law no less. See the Durham report. The whole "thing" was plotted by the Clinton campaign. There is also the Inspector General's report (Horowitz) about the FBI, and its head honchos, losing its/their way. When these truths were exposed one NYT reporter commented about the Clinton campaign liars thusly "...they lied and with sanctimony...".

    We were told the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation... Trump (who I will never vote for) was called out in a debate with Biden for promoting Russian disinformation by the mainstream media moderator because he mentioned the laptop. The moderator's reasoning: 50 former high ranking intelligence operatives said the laptop bore all the classic hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

    Have you ever wondered why Paul Manafort was tried and convicted for FARA violations while Hunter Biden is given a free pass? Or the fact that Peter Navarro was sentenced to prison for ignoring a congressional subpoena (yanked off an airplane and handcuffed) but Hunter faces no repercussions?

    So, we've got the CIA and the FBI running covert ops against the American public in order for form public opinion in their favor. Apparently there is a healthy appetite for wolf attacks these days because no one ever seems to ignore or tire of the boy calling wolf in real life. At this point Regan definitely got it backwards: verify before trusting. 

    The essence of a good con is telling the mark what they want to hear. No con can succeed without it.

    With this, I am out. I don't expect anyone in this thread to agree with anything I've added to this conversation and I am very much okay with it. I did want to voice my thoughts on the fundamental nature of matter. I hope you all are having a great day/night and enjoying life one day at a time.

     

    What has Hunter Biden to do with russian tanks in Ukraine?

    8

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    Pavlo Narozhnyi , the founder of "Reaktivna Poshta" and a military expert, gave an interview to the French publication Le Grand Continent.

    Quote

    ℹ️ Currently, the situation is very difficult. We have to face several problems at the same time. The most important thing is the lack of ammunition for artillery: our fighters have to regulate the use of shells. The total number fired per day is very small, from 2,000 to 3,000. And I'm not talking about 3,000 155-mm shells, that's all calibers together. That's about 600 or 1,000 rounds of 155 mm caliber and maybe 2,000 rounds of other calibers — 152 mm, 122 mm, 120 mm.

     

    ℹ️ Another ongoing problem that may soon be resolved is Russia's use of aerial bombs. This vulnerability is directly related to the lack of anti-aircraft systems. Since these are not unguided bombs, they can be launched 70 or even 100 kilometers from the front line. They can hit targets within a radius of 100 meters and can destroy any fortification, any building. Russia drops 50 to 100 such bombs on the front line every day.

     

    ℹ️ But it seems that this problem is about to be solved - mysterious anti-aircraft systems appeared on the front line, and we destroyed 15 Russian planes in the first days of March. This is a huge loss for Russia, as it only has about 200 of these aircraft. And each of these Su-34 bombers has two pilots. If you shoot down that plane, it means those pilots are killed or injured. If they eject, they will have spinal injuries and need three to six months to recover.

     

    ℹ️ We started using French AASM bombs. These are the same barrage bombs used by the Russians, but they are more modern. They don't just barrage, they have their own engine that gives them a longer range, which means we can hit very deep into the Russian logistics network.

     

    ℹ️ Tires are also one of the biggest targets for artillery, as the roads near the front line are littered with the small remains of destroyed equipment, as well as debris that can damage the tires. In addition, Russia is constantly planting small "petal" mines that are powerful enough to tear off a person's leg or damage the tire of a very large truck. Therefore, our organization purchases mobile stations so that units can repair and replace tires directly in the field. Only one such station costs 30 thousand dollars. It's not enough. Because on the front line, if Caesar's cannon loses a few tires and can no longer move, it becomes a very easy target.

     

    On whether kamikaze drones (in particular FPV) can compensate for artillery.

     

    ℹ️ The howitzer commander can fire 3-4 shells per minute, which is very fast compared to FPV, and artillery shells are not amenable to electronic warfare. Not to mention the power: if you are trying to destroy large fortifications, concrete bunkers, a drone with a kilogram of explosives will do nothing. Dozens, if not hundreds, of artillery shells should be used on each of these fortifications.

     

    ℹ️ We are committed to providing artillery units with decoy howitzers that are manufactured here in Ukraine. They are made of wood, cost $800 each, and the Russians have to be very precise to destroy them. "Lancet" is not a very accurate weapon, it usually hits one to three meters within the radius of the decoy howitzer. In this case, the soldiers smear the willows with paint and move the wooden howitzer to another position. Given that the Lancet costs about $40,000, this makes sense from an economic point of view. For example, only one of these decoy howitzers was targeted by 12 Lancets.

    ℹ️ We built cages for the towed howitzers, and the soldiers have special radio equipment that can detect enemy drones. When the drone is about five kilometers away, it starts making a very loud sound like a siren, and the gunners have to stay away from the howitzers because they won't have time to move the gun before the drone arrives. The Lancet will aim at the howitzer, but it is covered by this cage, and the drone's explosive charge is not powerful enough to penetrate the cage. After an attack, gunners usually need to do some repairs, such as repairing the gun's hydraulics or replacing tires, but the gun itself is usually kept in good condition.

     

    ℹ️ Both sides use drones. One of Russia's most advanced artillery systems, the Msta-S M2, has a special digital system that allows it to send drone coordinates directly to the artillery system. But most of them are not equipped with a digital system - and we destroyed most of these self-propelled guns because we get excellent results in counter-battery fire.

     

    ℹ️ The Russian army still uses mainly towed artillery, which is outdated and has no electronics, which is a big difference between them and us. We have special command centers with live broadcast from drones. And, of course, we have Western artillery. It is more accurate, more mobile, and more powerful. A 155-mm Western shell is worth a 200-mm Russian one.

     

    ℹ️ Speaking more generally, the main problem of our army is insufficient flexibility. Let me give you an example: let's say you are an officer in a unit and your truck breaks down. You must submit a request to the Department of Defense to repair or replace the truck, and this request can take up to two months to process. The guys know they can't wait that long, so they buy parts out of their own pockets.

     

    ℹ️ Ukrainian charitable organizations spend huge amounts of money to support the army - there are statistics published by the National Bank: the largest organizations collected about 20 billion hryvnias - approximately 500 million dollars. No one knows the numbers collected by smaller organizations, but overall it is a significant amount.

     

    Compared to the budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - about 35 billion dollars - the funds collected by charitable organizations do not seem so significant. But the main advantage of such organizations is their efficiency. They can quickly make decisions, buy equipment that is not registered with the Ministry of Defense, and transport it to the front line in a very short time. Speed and flexibility are the main advantages of such organizations. If a gunnery officer wants to get, say, a weather station, he can't just go to a store and buy one, he has to go through a special bureaucratic process. Or he can call me and say he needs a weather station.

     

    ℹ️ We have a "Bohdana", a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer, similar to a "Caesar", a very good gun. We produce six a month, which is a good figure. But we can't actually produce artillery shells, and that's a big problem. I don't have the numbers because they are classified. The only thing is that it was provided by the company "Ukrainian armored vehicles", which says that they produce about 20,000 mortar shells per month. But there is a big difference between mortars and 155 mm shells. You can use inferior steel for mortar rounds, but it doesn't work with larger calibers: the pressure in the barrel is so high that if you use bad steel, the projectile will explode inside the gun. There are also problems with the supply of gunpowder, TNT... And this is not only a problem of production in Ukraine, it is faced by everyone in the world.

     

    If the financial and military support of the West stops?

     

    ℹ️ We will fall apart, that's for sure. It's only a matter of time. We cannot produce enough here in Ukraine: it is impossible to build big factories, we do not have enough money because we have lost about 30% of our economy, and we spend almost 100% of our income on the army, on salaries, to buy fuel, food for a million soldiers.

     

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