Kraft
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Posts posted by Kraft
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The German company Rheinmetal will deliver five light assault vehicles "Caracal" to Ukraine this winter
The ZSU will be the first operators of these maneuverable off-road vehicles
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation signed a contract with a Chinese company for the supply of 2,000 Desertcross-1000-3 buggies in the next six months
Why is it so difficult to fix the demand for basic vehicles, not even armored ones.
Often I see donation posts for a simple jeep or van (that offers 0 protection for the medics/.. inside) having to be funded by generous donators.
As far as I know most European car manufacturers have declining orders, should not be impossible to get a large quantity contract for a simple offroad vehicle.
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Automatic translation is okay. No new crazy new insights but a cool tank
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About 105.000 trained UA soldiers in the west this year.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-france-military-f70fb490a8e4fd5ea472e3d81de7a176
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Russian special forces killed two locals who were unlucky to come across them in a forest near Sumy.
And atleast five soldiers were ambushed there in recent days as well.
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I dont see any indications of a breakthrough/retreat in Ru TGs. I would ask where these platoon+ units could break through to, at maximum footpace speed under air bombardmend.
Mashovets noted yesterday the Russians have not commited the majority of their reserves in this region
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Russian Mech and mass infantry assault goes very poorly thanks to AGL fire and a Russian driver who rather wanted to be someplace else, regardless of who's below the tracks alas karma made his fate worse.
According to some there is also a very rare BMP-1AM (2018) involved, and some MT-LB troop carrier open top variant.
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Modified Lancet kamikaze drones were spotted, which are capable of penetrating self-made defenses in the form of nets on armored vehicles
Some Lancets received additional cameras that provide LIDAR - a system for obtaining information about distant objects using the reflection of light and its scattering in transparent and translucent environments
With this technology, the combat part of the drone detonates at a certain distance from the target, the explosion creates a cumulative jet that reaches the object and hits it. Several meters do not reduce the penetrating properties of such ammunition
If the modification begins to gain momentum, the equipment of the ZSU is protected by nets, which could not boast of great efficiency even before, will become defenseless
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2 hours ago, JonS said:
This is a variation of the mass vs precision thing.
In the paper-scissors-rock of modern warfare, precision artillery beats mass artillery, as we have already repeatedly seen proven over the past 20+ months.
Tl;dr: I'd much rather have/be supported by a Western artillery system with fewer shells than a Russian system with more shells.
Should be kept in mind that things like Excalibur rounds are easily thrown off by gps jamming and can hardly be used in certain areas right now.
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Not sure if this has been posted already.
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25 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:
Not looking good....
..... Lol
I guess this is living proof russian sewer level propaganda works?
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1 minute ago, The_Capt said:
A medium density mixed minefield 400 deep will disable or kill about 70 percent of a hard ball bull-rush. That is the mines alone. Once you add in arty and ATGMs - all supported by ISR it is a suicide mission. Kinda like what we have been watching the RA do. I am pretty sure emulating them is a bad strategy. Now imagine if the West gave Ukraine 500 tanks and they lost 70 percent of them in an afternoon. Because we are talking kms deep minefield belts here one would not have enough to sustain a breakthrough based on those losses.
Of mine rolling vehicles? I am not saying a suicide tank rush. The idea is if enough of these breaches appear at the same time, supporting systems will be overloaded, maybe stop 70-80%, the rest could have a fighting chance. But I dont think in all of Nato there exist this many specialized vehicles, even if they all were available.
So, since they cant be breached or moved around realistically, only option I see is moving this war into russia proper, but I am sure Scholz and many others would have a heart attack
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QuoteA new practice of using fpv drones by the enemy during assaults on the example of the Priyutny district
Katsaps, unfortunately, do not stand still and continue to improve the practice of using fpv drones. On our part, this should cause increased work in the means of combating this instrument of defeat. Consider a rather unpleasant episode that happened last week between Staromayorsky and Priyutny.
The situation is as follows - 3 of our positions in total with at least 13 fighters and 4 enemy attack aircraft.
🖼 The photo shows still images of the main lesions in our positions.
1-3 hits fly into the first trench. They hit our machine gunner and another soldier who was trying to restrain 4 attack aircraft. Result: all 4 of our guys died.
4-6 hits fly into the second trench. Suppress the defenders, inflicting wounds. 3 fighters die, 2 escape.
Frame 7 - the enemy is coming from the second trench in the dugout. In the latter there were 4 fighters who were able to save themselves, but due to the work of the AGS (unknown whose) they could not hold on.
As a result. We lost 7 men killed, the enemy - none. Along the Katsapa curve, almost 1 km of forest strip was occupied. We will not specify how much the 8 fpv drones that produced this result cost the enemy. It is impossible to say that our guys were wrong. They kept their weapons and to the last fire did not allow the stormtroopers to approach.
Such are the realities of war. And the smallest changes on the map are always sweat and blood. For volunteers, this should be a call not only to collect on fpv drones, but also to look for ways to fight them. And for the society as a whole - not to give up and remember that the fighters give their lives so that the occupation does not spread to the whole country. Because people are the main resource, without them Leopard or F-16 are just iron.
Let's not forget the price of every day of war.
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There will need to be a cheap and feasable mass solution to clearing kilometers of minefields at driving pace, because by next year every inch will be mined and there is nothing anyone can do about it now.
Only option then left would be to screw Western guidelines and drive into the less fortified russian countryside.
Instead of 6 Leopards with rollers there need to be 100 vehicles like this across the offensive line simultaneously, then I am fairly certain breakthroughs can be achieved - but I know that is a complete pipedream. There will probably not even be enough to replace this autumns losses.
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Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces:
Unspeakable pain and heavy loss for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for me personally.
Today, under tragic circumstances, is his Day
my assistant and close friend, Major Gennadiy Chastyakov, died in the family circle. An unknown explosive device went off in one of the gifts. Gennady is survived by his wife and four children. My deepest condolences to the family...
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Gennady was a reliable shoulder for me, completely devoting his life to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the fight against Russian aggression.
The reasons and circumstances will be established during the pre-trial investigation.
Eternal memory!
Zaluzhnyis assistant Major was assasinated, according to his TG.
Other sources claim it was a result of inproper handling of a German DM-51 grenade.
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1. The enemy continues to strengthen its group in the Avdeevsky direction. In particular, 2 days ago he completed the movement of the 239th tank regiment (tp) from the 90th tank division (td) to this direction; from now on, at least 2 tank regiments of this division are operating near Avdievka.
In general, his command continues to implement its plan to encircle the Avdiivka defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In particular, 1.5 days ago, the troops subordinate to him carried out a series of attack and assault operations in this direction...
East of the village of Stepnoe, the forward units of the 114th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR) of the 1st Army Corps (AK) of the enemy, with the support of units of its 15th OMSBR of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (OVA) attacked the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of this .P. - were successful, ousted our units from one VP (platoon stronghold)
In the direction of "koksokhim" units of the enemy's 132nd (1st AK) and 21st Omsbr (2nd OVA) attacked - the fighting is still ongoing... but, obviously, they have already taken a landing behind the railway near the northern part plant.
In the direction of Kashtanovo - "Vineyards" and towards the "Tsarskaya Okhota" units of the 1st Omsbr (1st AK) attacked, with the support of units of the 55th Omsbr (41st OVA) of the enemy, combat operations in this area are still ongoing .
In the direction Vodyanoye - “9th Quarter” (Avdeevka), with the forces of the same 1st and 55th Infantry Motorized Rifles, the enemy tried to reach the rear of our units defending in the area of the village of Opytnoye - to no avail.
In the directions Vodyanoye - Tonenkoye and Peski - Pervomaiskoye, units of the 9th separate brigade of the Marine Corps (1st AK) attacked - unsuccessfully for themselves.
In the sense of supporting and ensuring active offensive operations in the Avdeevsky direction, the enemy command also organized and carried out a number of attack actions in neighboring directions and sectors, in particular...
From the Stepnoe (lower) - Taramchuk line, units of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AK) attacked the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the direction of the village of Novomikhailovka - to no avail.
In the direction Marinka - Georgievka, units of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st AK) with the participation of units of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (MSR) of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) of the 8th OVA of the enemy tried once again to “finally take Marinka - unsuccessfully ...
Thus, taking into account that the enemy does not stop his attempts to attack (without, obviously, reducing the volume of his forces and means that he attracts to participate in these attacks), and also that he continues to strengthen his group in the Avdeevsky direction, it is quite possible to come to the conclusion that his command has not yet abandoned the implementation of its plans (plan) in the Avdeevsky direction.
By the way, about the state of the additional forces and assets that the enemy is moving to this direction - we are talking about the very 239th Tank Tank of the 90th Tank Division.
And what do we see...?
- personnel - 1589 military personnel
- tanks - 32 units (this is 34% of the staff strength)
- armored combat vehicles (AFV) – 20 units (accounts for 65% of the staff strength)
- artillery systems – 13 units (54% of the “staff”)
The regiment's command post (CP) is deployed in the area of the village. Korsun (this is the Gorlovsky district of the Donetsk region).
In essence, this “tank regiment”, in terms of the number of main weapons and military equipment available, is a tank battalion, reinforced by two motorized rifle companies and an artillery battalion. As they say - “not a lot”...
By and large, it should be taken away for “restoration and replenishment”, and not prepared for entry into battle to attack the prepared defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine... But the enemy command, obviously, did not bring it from the Liman direction near Avdeevka so that it "chilled in the rear"
What does this indicate...? At least a few things...
– Avdeevka, obviously, continues to be a “priority” for the Russian command
- Everything that is “living” is already being dragged there from directions that can still “wait” a little.
- At the same time, the enemy no longer takes into account the real state and level of combat capability of its brigade/regiment level formations... and begins to operate in the area of increasing efforts not with units and formations, but in fact - with individual units... Although they continue to be officially called regiments , brigades and even divisions.
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First picture of the M1A1 in Ukraine (as far as I am aware)
I hope they get enough time to put up anti drone cages.
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33 minutes ago, acrashb said:
While I don't doubt that Russian culture is materially different from Western culture, this particular picture could be emblematic of the Russian mind or, since we have also seen pictures of mothers / wives mourning more conventionally, it could be that Dimitry, in spite of his winning smile, was a son of a bitch and his wife is glad to start over with his cousin Mikhail.
All good points of course and this is just an (-other) anecdotal picture from my biased sample, but I have followed the syrian conflict relatively closely over roughly 300k dead there I have not seen a single picture of such behavior, and zero from UA*. I remember half a dozen weird pictures like this from russians and Im not going through vk to find them
*with the exception of one nonfamily scumbag stealing sentimental patches from a pilots grave
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Maybe a few trillion dollars in economic development will help:
But you right…we suck. It is all our fault. That is the narrative to take and totally does not play into the hands of people who want to withdraw support.
Never did I say something about 'you' specifically, when I am refering to the west, I am talking politicians.
About the article, it doesnt mention sums anywhere, just promises for nato and "support for whatever it takes*". *conditions apply, to be revoked at any election. You cannot with a straight face tell me there are still legitimate escalatory problems with sending taurus missiles 600 days in.
If there is a will for nato acceptance, it will be done, if not, there will be a thousand stones in the way.
Its a promise build purely on trust, unlike previous guarantees, which were signed and supposedly obligating.
32 Abrams tanks in a war which has consumed 688 UA tanks, there obviously are limits to these promises and treatees, why should I believe this support will be different in 10 years time, when other issues create conditions under which Putin sees a good opportunity to strike?
Should Ukraine then cede the next cities and maybe the Black Sea, because its too much effort to take it back? The salami slice has already happened 3 times in Ukraine, excluding Putins previous wars!
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1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine
And so Putin and China are affirmed, the west will get tired and throw the towel long before them, despite suffering not a single casualty and mostly dumping expiring cold war storage.
How depressing, but I guess this solves some information asymetries, namely how much security guarantees of 1994 are worth, about 1.5-2 years of drip-fed and postponed support, we cant risk escalating after all, only god knows which city Putin will nuke if a dozen Taurus are send.
But I guess it will all be different when the peace is broken some years down the line, regardless of political climate, economic hardship or other wars..
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
So what does Russia sell? What sustains this gold throne? Oil and gas. The West ain’t buying it anymore and that is going to continue. So Russia sells to China or India (Iran has their own). 1) all the infra is going West so know they have an eastward problem. 2) China and India are going to guy Russia and undercut profits 3) A lot of expertise ran away and keeps running away. That brain drain is going to really start hurting.No, the Russian economy does not get away with this all scot free. Major market shifts are not painless. Can Russia still do Grey zone crap and play silly buggers, sure…but we already risked managed that for over a decade. It is going to cost Russia billions, maybe hundreds of billions to rebuild military power after this war. Will there be oligarchs? Yup. Will Putin stay rich? Yup.
I generally agree with this. Although I think this lack of Infrastructure is not as much an issue, and will be resolved within time. China can tie russia a knot and throw that lifeline, they've sunk enough billions across the world to debt trap contries vital to shipping lines (or buy 25% of German Hamburg harbour infrastructure (still, in 2023), as a funny sidenote)
A little cash to get this useful puppet will not be an issue cheap labor cant fix and the profits for Russia will be lower, but ofc remain high enough to finance Russia just so it can be a continued problem for the West, while also getting a good deal on it.
QuoteWill Russia be in a position to do Ukraine War 2.0 in the next 10 years…no freakin way.
None of this is “good” but it ain’t all bad either. The dance will continue but Russia is boxed up and can only do so much. Our biggest risk is taking our eyes off this ball as we go all scope eye on China.
I disagree, because the same Minsk dance has been done before. Ukraine style operations, they are doing it every day, if the war froze, Russia could start another Avdiivka assault the day after, there is no safety and the paper is worth as much this peace will be written on. All it takes is a little instability, another Donald Trump, EU wide unlucky constalation of Parties, which could potentially deadlock support and this show starts for the 3rd time.
And while the west gets cozy and forgets in the next 10 years, or starts facing climate issues, or has another Donald excourse in international relations management, or needs trillions to deal with China, Russia builds up (2014/16/23 deja vu). So many things that will be more important than the current <5% of defense spending aid given, which already seems like the greatest burden, while UA is in active war for survival. Now imagine how much this will be a budget issue that can be reduced, if there has been "peace" for 5-10 years.
This is the shakiest, "victory" "win" one can claim, which really, is just painting a failure, namely the defeat of the Russian threat. Any kind of negotiations like this are a tumor that will erode stability for the next decades, because the second the ship gets a little tilted, this peace will break.
The "red line" has shifted again
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47 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
Venezuela might not have a regime change, but it isn't doing 'good' from whatever pov. So not sure if that is an example others will want to follow.
The point is that the king still sits on gold even if the peasents starve.
We are also far from that - so what exactly is this "punishment" of economic "isolation" /read this as a trade reduction in russias case, Russia still very happily trades with the rest of the world and vice versa, some companies pulled out, others made great profit there.
All one can argue is that this economic reduction reduces Russias potential to build as many weapons as they could but a) they are maintaining the war good enough, b) judging by North Korea (which is completely isolated vs just the west doing - less trading - not nothing), which still hangs on after half a century and remains a threat to SK and the world.
So how much does this "economic pain" really deter Putin, or other autocrats ? In my view, not at all.
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39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I don’t think it is nearly as cut and dry as the average person thinks. There are upsides to a stalemate at this point. To be totally brutal an endstate where both sides can claim victory (and defeat) often makes for the best outcome. Ukraine is still a free nation, our support ensured they stood up against an illegal invasion and largely repelled it when there should have been no chance of that success.
Russia and Putin can claim victory as they took an additional 7% of Ukraine at an eye-watering cost. But this will likely keep ol Flat Face in power for a few more years before Time does its thing for us all. This avoids a Russian free fall experience, and we get the added bonus of Europe buying our oil and gas (or alternatives) while we righteously continue to isolate Russia -this is why it won’t matter who is in the White House post-war.
A lose-lose starts to look like a win-win. US administration can point to all the upsides going into ‘24, plus we are looking at Armageddon in the Middle East which keeps the Bible Belt focused elsewhere. We hopefully do a whole bunch of reconstruction in Ukraine and go all South Korea on the place. Russia continues as downward spiral but slowly enough they don’t start WW3. And we can all focus on China as the next big threat worthy of trillions in defence spending on bloated military capabilities that probably won’t work.
So you see, a stalemate is not the end of the world. In fact I would not be surprised if in some circles they are kinda pushing for it. The total and utter crushing of Russia has some serious risks. This outcome sidesteps a lot of them. Now everyone is both happy and unhappy. Sometimes no decision is the best decision.
I for one am not convinced we are there yet, but we definitely can see it from here.
This is not Putins autocrat perspective.
He wants to restore a great empire and make history books, costs are calculated differently
Putin does not care about a few hundred thousand dead convicts, immigrants, muslims, whatever
Economic damage is only an issue if it reaches a nations breaking point. Look at conditions in Venezuela, absolutely abysmal, child death rates are at 25% due to starvation etc etc etc - where is the regime change? - it will take far far more until apathetic russians will roam the streets demanding change, they are content with a bag of Potatoes for a dead son, after all.
When he feels weekness due to instability, or other autocrats occupying the mind of the west, this will all start again, maybe in Ukraine, maybe someplace else and it signals exactly this to China, sacrifice a few peasents and get to paint the map.
This is already a confrontation between the West and East and just like when the soviet union keeled over, the first thing the west wants to do is to get back to business as usual, as if Putin will just Accept Minsk3 and will behave like a dog in his corner, this kind of irrelevance to the world fueled his whole empire restoration motives
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https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
Weird history this guy has with his articles
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Kraft
I want to add that UA needs to maintain a 3(4) to 1 ratio just to keep force parity. A 1-1 ratio is only ever good if it leads to strategic payoffs, which it did not.
Assuming ofc a constant, not declining.. supply of vehicles from the West.
This is a big if too, because I dont see another hundred or so european tanks/.. coming next year, even if the will is there. This can only be really done by the US. Meanwhile Russia will continue to restore and produce with increasing numbers in 2024.
Now before its brought up, these Russian losses will have paid off if Avdiivka falls. So its too early to judge that in my opinion. The initial push overcame the most defensible and difficult part, albeit at huge losses. But alas, new brigades will take the place of lost ones and the Infantry may well grind this out in favor of the invaders.