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Kraft

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Posts posted by Kraft

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

    Has Girkin now begun to call Russian soldiers "worms"?

    😁😁😁😁😁

    Its a Ukrainian account who grabbed the name.

    Originally to show people who were curious evidence of russian troops, military shipments into seperatist areas and artillery fire from russian border while putin was still in his "these are miners" phase

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    1 hour ago, JonS said:

    Oookay. So that would mean that most western medium artillery is sidelined now, then, not just the 777?

    (Also; the article explicitly says it wouldn't affect ops in ukraine, let alone halt them completely. Also, Gaza is ~6 weeks old but the 777 seems to have been quiet all year.)

    1 yes and mortars

    2 US officials say that, which they always will. UA was always in a situation where shells were needed and every additional one would find its use immediately.

    Large US stockpiles meant for Israels defense were tapped and to be sent to Ukraine. These are now being backordered and the flow of fresh shells split between the two countries.

    As for 777, I have seen plenty footage of Shahed used against them this year, so they were active.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    Guys, I have a problem with forum sign in on my PC. I can sign in on my phone w/o problems, but on PC I have notification about wrong name, email, password, though I changed password and deleted old cookies. 

    Not to turn this into a tech support thread but the same is the case for me, I can only use mobile.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Not sure what "air advantage" means anymore to be honest.  Let alone if we could build it in the Ukraine.  I if was going to spend a few billion on it, I would likely double down on small, longer range unmanned systems and deep fires.  I mean all an aircraft really does is carry the "boom", suck up data and try to deny the same to the enemy.  If you can do that other ways cheaper and faster that might create what they are referring to.

    I think the idea of "more, better expensive western kit" is fundamentally flawed.  First we cannot produce that equipment in the numbers this war would need.  Second, Ukraine could not field it for years - eg a full SEAD suite.  Third, Ukraine would be challenged to sustain it.  Fourth, it still might not work.  I mean keep pushing what we have, sure.  Better than nothing.  But we get into the "one more Abrams" trap.  We need to start thinking about hacking this war from a Ukrainian perspective and stop projecting "how we would do it" onto them.

    Im conviced the only way to really win this is completely outproduce russia in the drone department. If the monthly fpv strikes happened per week/..day across the front, the war would quickly become unsustainable, even in the manpower department. 

    If there is a drone or three for every little hideyhole, no trench can be held and reinforced and the mines dont matter all that much anymore.

    Bonus point Id get to watch a lot more russians blow up instead of the occasional F16 flyby.

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, akd said:

    3rd Separate Assault Brigade guys in a very bad place at the front:

     

    Just as a side note, this was posted on a Personal channel ~2 months ago. The official release cut out some parts, including one WIA being treated from one of the shells landing nearby and the KIA and WIA in the other trench from the FPV drone at 6:16.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

     It does not matter which US president gets in, they all like the money.  

    Not sure how reputable this source is https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016/

    But according to them, Trump, even after the invasion, wants to get rid of article 5 or else pull out of NATO, if reelected.

    Quote

    Trump would repeatedly scoff at this collective-defense clause of the North Atlantic Treaty, known as Article 5. 

    Trump then vented that “starting World War III” over some of these [smaller NATO] countries’ sovereignty made absolutely no sense, and that he shouldn’t be forced to automatically commit American troops to any such crisis.

    ---

    Quote

    As to Russian military threat.  Well it is getting its @ss handed to it by a nation 1/4 its size held together by cash, good will and a freakin Mad Hatter’s menagerie of military support.  Assuming Ukraine collapses (somehow) how Russia would expect to take what they have left and somehow assault an opponent 6 times larger (https://www.worlddata.info/alliances/nato.php#:~:text=In addition to the USA,percent of the world's population.) and over 20 times as wealthy is beyond me.  The RA can’t mount a decent tactical victory after months of  trying but “once they get done with Ukraine they will cut through Europe like prunes through a short grandmother”?  It borders on disinformation to be honest.

    Money means only so much though, how could the Taliban take Kabul, since their army got subsidised by 90 billions in aid and two decades of training from the best army in the world - if the soldiers dont fight its worthless.

    Why would Germany or Italy commit to a fight for Lithuania with a thousand KIA each day - If not even a quarter would fight for their own country? 

    Screenshot-20231126-063211-GMX-Mail.jpg

    https://winmr.com/willingness-to-fight-for-ones-own-country-and-attitudes-towards-safety-and-war/ survey from after the Invasion.

    The budget of the Bundeswehr plays a very minor role in that. You can force conscript the males and throw them like Shtorm-Z away. I doubt they would perform any better than the unmotivated russian rabble that is dying right now, they dont complain about it atleast, doubt that would be the case for the guy who was living a great comfortable high end life before, his family will not be happy with a bag of potatoes

    As to actual size, ie how many soldiers/km, not how expensive his procurement program was, I think europe would be far behind in active combatants if Russia does mobilise.

    But it will not come to that anyway, as Ukraine will not collapse

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    1 hour ago, sburke said:

    Yep as soon as they conquer Kiev, they will be heading further west!  Any day now... just a little further!

    I believe any of those plans are really not all that likely while SMO goals have not been fullfilled.

    However

    US troops will not deploy in the hundred thousands to die by FPV drones in a muddy trench if Trump is elected.

    Whatever else Europe has (left) in terms of military is tiny in scale and wouldnt stand a few months of current war attrition. 

    How many Germans, French, Hungarian.. citizens would really give their lives for say Lithuania? Russia is absolutely fine throwing a thousand lives away per day, are europeans too?

    All it takes is some political instability in Europe and mass mobilisation in Russia, which by the absolute lack of anti war movement doesnt seem that unsuccessfull in pulling off.

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    Sorry, 'solving the problem of information security' as in imposing censorship?

    The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee?

     

    A simple step that is a few years below 1984 would be to just block any and all political party "donations" coming from some unknown strongly moved spectator, that cares so ever deeply about <insert country> politics as to involve himself in their funding campaigns, while residing in russia. 

    5

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    I dont think there will be an 'okay we give up', before lack of support forces this decision as the war is not really sustainable without western aid.

    Will it happen - I dont know.

    Rise of far right anti-EU (often Putin funded) in Europe is very worrying and US elections I think will prove decisive as I believe Biden Admin is keeping support temporarily low to keep chances of winning higher.

    But then again I thought ATACMS would be the deciding factor for Taurus and I was wrong, so maybe I am biased in my judgement of political will .

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Quote

    Unfortunately, we lost a number of positions near Andriivka and Klishchiivka, I will not argue with the fact that we suffered losses, but the operational situation in the south of Bakhmut is controlled by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the initiative is ours, despite the tactical successes of the enemy, we do not allow success to develop.

    In the north of the fortress, russians do not go to storm the positions, FPV and skirmishes dismantle the positions... We lose the position not because of the assault, but because there are simply no whole people left..

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    Res ipse loquitur, sorry.

    Again, I'm willing to believe he hasn't changed his spots, but this is all hearsay.

    I went through the PVVs election promises, under defense on page 36, they say in rosey terms no aid to Ukraine to stop islamic terror in the netherlands. And appearently because the country needs to defend itself too🤣

    Add on top his Ukraine is divided and its all the EU/NATOs fault anyway from some years ago

    For me that is enough direct evidence. 

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    I don't disbelieve you, and my interest in politics is limited (and arguing it here is fairly pointless and neverending), but could you perhaps provide a substantive Wilders quote on Ukraine later than 2014, and preferably later than Feb 2022?

    If you take Reuters word for it it would spare me going through his cesspool twitter

    Quote

    Wilders has repeatedly said the Netherlands should stop providing arms to Ukraine, as he says the country needs the weapons to be able to defend itself.

    Quote

    A fan of former U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungary's eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the vocally anti-Islam, anti-EU Wilders has also vowed to slash Dutch payments to the European Union and block the entrance of any new members, including Ukraine.

    Btw, I consider any anti-EU politician as harmful, as this weakens Europe as a whole and strenghens US (indifferent) and China, thereby Russia.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

    You've got it totally wrong BillBinDC.  Moscow wealth is definitely indicative of the state of the larger country.  Just look at Pyongyang.  Both of these countries have benevolent philosopher kings who care only for the well being of their people, especially the poorest and most marginalized. 

    But seriously, yes, looking at luxury cars is not a good measure of anything.  It's like when there's bad economy in US but "2nd home ownership is up!".  Yes, for all those who can afford 2nd homes (btw, this was actually something someone said once during a tough recession) 

    Yes look at Pyongyang and count the amount of times these poor starving farmers have risen up and disposed of the people responsible for their suffering.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kraft

    Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. 

    A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. 

    All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion.

     

    As for gas, both sides have used it in several instances, not systematic because even when dropped into a dugout, it still only works somewhat well at flushing it out, incendiary works better and has 0 international baggage.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Quote

     A Chinese vessel was responsible for damaging a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea

     This was reported by the Estonian state agency ERR.

    According to the Elering company, during the incident, the ship Newnew Polar Bear pulled the Balticconnector pipe 100 meters from the place of damage with the help of an anchor, as a result of which the gas pipeline was displaced for four kilometers compared to the former route.

    The company and Estonian experts are already studying ways to repair this section and, as Elering's press secretary Ain Kester stated, it will be more realistic and cheaper to replace a much shorter part of the gas pipeline that has shifted at the intersections with "Nord Stream-1" and "Nord Stream- 2".

     

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