Kraft
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Posts
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Posts posted by Kraft
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30 minutes ago, sburke said:
Still here? Not for long I expect.
? Is there some issue between us that I am unaware of?
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54 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Let's look at this as simply as possible: what about the Russian government for the last 20 years suggests to you that they are capable of a finely tuned false flag that somehow managed to fool the US government's vast resources pointed at ISIS-K?
Russia doesnt need to infiltrate isis, they just need to let it happen which they did.
Examplary reaction Ive seen a few times:
QuoteRussians must unite as before in order to prevent this black lawlessness with their moral teachings and orders, and also stop at all levels and severely punish those government officials, etc., who give them citizenship, the opportunity to live in Russia, work, organize pop MMA, who close eyes on their crimes, who takes money from them and is involved in concealment.
These people are enemies of the People, who through their actions make it possible to commit crimes. This is another enemy of ours who sits in the rear while Russia is at war with the Western enemy on the territory of the so-called Ukraine.
My prediction: mobilisation focusing heavily on religious minority, their passport 'volunteers' have been exhausted, now the rest will be called in.
Who's going on the street to protest if its just muslims? Let them atone for their religious brothers with blood of their own, you will hear.
Just like they dont give a **** about the convicts who turned into maggot food, no muskovite will cry over the landfill of bodies they'll be dumped in, I guarantee you that.
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300k officially*, I am sure the real number will be far greater.
QuoteThe Vyorstka Telegram channel on March 22 cited four sources close to the presidential office and Defense Ministry as saying that Moscow plans to soon announce a new wave of military mobilization that would seek to enlist up to 300,000 people to bolster its troops involved in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Mark Denisov, the ombudsman in Russia's Krasnoyarsk Krai, said on March 21 that several penitentiaries in the Siberian region will be shut down this year due to the ongoing recruitment of inmates for the war.
Denisov's statement came two days after the Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, approved in the final reading a bill allowing inmates to change their prison terms to suspended sentences without presidential clemency decrees after they sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
In November, the Kremlin admitted to recruiting inmates to the war in Ukraine saying they "are atoning for their guilt with blood."
https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-mobilization-war-ukraine-prisons/32873203.html
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4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
Designer death
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Commander of the Ground Forces Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk:
QuoteRussian plans are not fully clear to us. We only know the data they have, what they create. They create force grouping with more than 100 thousand soldiers.
It won’t necessarily be an offensive. Perhaps they will replenish their units that are losing their combat capability.
These are so far such dire predictions that such an offensive will happen. We will do everything in order to inflict maximum losses on the enemy, so that all their resources that they form are involved in the battle at this time. But we are preparing for a different development of the situation.
If we fail to keep the enemy in Ukraine, the next country will be the NATO country.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oleksandr-pavliuk-russians-form-a-hundred-thousand-group-of-troops/
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2 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Anyway,
According to their own experience in Aphanistan, a very large bomb is less effective than multiple smaller ones because the overall destruction area of the big bomb is smaller.
Clowns.
I think it does a better job of flattening concrete bunkers in the vicinity and cellars that might withstand nearby 500kg impacts though?
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US intelligence is quite impressive in their ability to know of these things ahead of time
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54 minutes ago, billbindc said:
The idea that American analysts shouldn't be doing stringent cost/benefit analyses of whether the temporary effects of drone strikes on Russian refineries might be less important than avoiding a price spike that delivers Trump to the WH and Putin an outright victory is absurd.
With a complete breakdown in the promised US support and perceived unreliability as an ally, how much is a higher chance for Bidens protracted status quo war stance in office worth if MAGA hats keep their complete deadlock on the system?
The Trump base doesnt seem to mind at all if the US gov stays paralysed and I dont see them change their mind when another election is "stolen". The supposed bypassing of the speaker only now has a single republican supporter, meanwhile not even all Democrats have supported it.
MAGA blockade and resulting shell rationing has gone on for a quarter of the war now!
Pressure on russia to end this has to come from somewhere and everyday the US does nothing because of a "minority" fraction causing touble is a day further in a future where it counts less as an ally and consequently will be listened to less.
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58 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
refusal to surrender which sometimes borders on madness
To add, there are now 50 videos from drones filming russians end themselfs, I think 4 new videos just the last 7 days. The frequency has been increasing steadily.
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Also first filmed instance of an african/cuban mercenary receiving his paycheck for early retirement
And while this human garbage comes to kill for riches
Anastasia, a medical officer, gave her life trying to pull a wounded comrade from the 67th ombr to safety.
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59 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
Do you have a direct link for the fundraiser?
Monobank for the specific fundraiser: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5eBaMvoanU
General:
Bank card 5375411215349155
Private 5168745030910761
PayPal sternenkopaypal@gmail.com
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15 minutes ago, alison said:
It seems to me that open video feeds are still a risk when going up against a high-tech adversary. Let's assume and hope that the telemetry like speed, heading and GPS is already fully encrypted and "uncrackable" so it's only the analog video feed that's "in the clear". If we can scan the standard frequencies and find some of those feeds, then pipe those into another system which already has the terrain visually mapped out from its own overflights, it might be possible to geolocate the incoming drone before it's picked up by other detection systems. I remember someone upthread talking about lasers or autocannon targeting the sound of rotors, and if that's the state of the art then intercepting radio signals containing meaningful data is going to give you a much longer lead time.
Of course I am just hypothesizing here, but thinking about scanning radio frequencies looking for audio signals... I am sure that right now hobbyists could set a USB-sized SDR to auto scan, then feed the audio hits into a language model to have it quickly detect what kind of stuff is being discussed on each channel (railroad, logging, weather etc). Video is much more complex but the building blocks are there. If these things travel 60km/h and you start to get signal 10km out, that's up to 10 minutes to figure out where it is and call in one of your anti-drone drones to take it out. Even better if your anti-drone mothership was already in the air taking live footage of the same area to feed back into the model. But as soon as their video feed is encrypted, it shuts down the whole (counter) attack vector.
I think just being able to get a rough glimpse of the drones path can help discover the drone team, if they are stretching the range its likely a near straight line from team to target, especially if they are unaware they are being watched and havent adapted
The OSINT geolocators are already incredibly fast at finding even simple treeline locations from a few seconds cut drone footage
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Two russians armed with stick and shovel try their luck at air defense but the claymore airburst FPV does not need to get close, better luck next time
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Anecdotal comment from a company commander in 5th SturmBat
QuoteThe war is no longer the same as it was two years ago, not the same as a year ago, and not even the same as a month ago. Despite the enemy's huge losses in equipment and personnel, they manage to build up strength on the entire front line.
In them, the number of artillery installations on the front line does not decrease. We destroy, liquidate, and they, like mushrooms after the rain, appear again.
Their drones hang over our heads like clouds. There are so many of them that the enemy can experiment, use different frequencies without fear of losing the drone.
The number of air attacks on our positions in three months of 2024 has already exceeded their number for the entire year of 2023.
The amount of enemy infantry that is used as cannon fodder simply does not fit in the head. They go, get bullets, fall, followed by others. They also go, step over their own, get zinc porridge again and fall again. Just have time to load the guns.
But as soon as this meat ends, you think that you can exhale, relax. Never mind! The enemy already knows where our position is. And everything he has in his arsenal is already flying here. Well, if you have a dugout with so-called bald holes - this is the only possibility to survive in such a situation.
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On 3/16/2024 at 1:42 PM, The_Capt said:
I have a serious problem with this narrative that somehow Russia “did Adiivka” and has now fully recovered. This entire position is based on some pretty sketchy vehicle production stats, most of the info coming out of Russia itself. As far as we can tell the RA wrecked an entire MRD at Adiivka. This is on top of loses elsewhere. The idea that Russia simply stamped out an entire shiny new MRD to replace it is disinformation as far as I am concerned. Russian force quality has been on a one way trajectory from the start of this war, except for a few notable areas: UAS and ISR - and we still are not sure if these are anomalies or trends. In other capability areas it is exactly as you describe, more older equipment. (equipment less suitable for this environment) This is due to RA losses exceeding Russian industrial capacity to generate modern equipment. It has been noted by more than one expert that Russia is draining its Soviet legacy force pool of equipment and ammunition.
So the idea that Russia is simply shrugging off all these losses - losses that Ukraine is barely able to sustain, while quaking under the giant footsteps of an unstoppable Russia, all the while the weak and puny west sits back and watches…well this borders on propaganda not worthy of this forum. These sorts of gross oversimplifications without any real evidence, or skewing evidence need to stop as they play directly in Russian information operations.
I suspect the Ukrainian posters who have pitched these angles are a combination of war weary and/or are thinking that by continuing to promote a desperate Ukrainian situation that we will somehow become politically motivated. However, they are missing the very real risk that some who read this forum may take this entire narrative as a sign that Ukraine is a lost cause, and we are all out of patience with lost causes. By continually shouting “Ukraine is dooooomed” they might just convince enough people that they are right. The answer won’t be to “double down and support Ukraine” it may wind up being “cut out losses and move on”. That is what makes this angle such a powerful pro-Russian tool. Russia must make this war appear “too hard, too complicated” because we in The West hate those situations. Any and all skewed or heavily biased assessments like these simply play into Russian hands.
Just to clarify, I do not believe these losses to be sustainable, I have repeatedly said otherwise. Russia has about 1.5-2 years at high intensity left in its storage, before it is down to production numbers only. I quoted the lowest estimation from a western intelligence group.
The issue is that in the short and medium term these losses are replaceable for russia only. After that, they are irreplacable for both but my guess is that by then drones will be so dominant that neither can do anything but dig down and try to get into the earth.
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If anyone here has knowledge and is interested in technical info on Radio, EW, missile, and drones, frequencies, developments in the FPV arms race, etc, I have this channel to share. Sadly its content surpasses my knowledge on the matter.
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Some month(s?) ago there was the topic of Krynki and sustaining a Bridgehead /expanding it.
Here is an example of what happens when the pressure is too high on the 2 km marshland route, a Marine with a simple wound that was tied off who could not be evacuated for 14 days. Graphic as the wound turned to necrosis and the limb needs to be amputated. Those with heavier wounds that could not cross either do not need to be evacuated anymore.
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43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
So unless you have some sort of irrefutable sources of "data" that show Ukraine is suffering more casualties per day than Russia is, then you can not conclude "the daily attrition, which has shifted in favor of russia".
Attrition in my mind is the constant cost of war, where as casulties from offensive operations are seperate. The naming here is pretty irrelevant though because as I said, the ZSU is not suffering more absolute casulties*
This is not because the average drone pilot is 10 times better or has 10 times more drones and thus somehow offsets the total lack of shells.
Its just a result that attacking in an environment where units can be reliably spotted kilometers away before they even assembled for a large scale attack, and can be killed more easily with the cheap-o FPV PGM, is near suicidal as russian meatwaves prove day in day out.
Even if they make it past no mans land, a focused drone effort wipes most of the exposed and often EW-unprotected / unentrenched survivors out before much of any momentum can be gained.
Its the same for both sides in this way but as Ukraine is not attacking, its not subject to this exposure as much, just the daily bombing and artillery shelling
QuoteRussia absolutely must keep attacking if it is to force Ukraine to surrender, therefore unless something massive changes in the near future Russia will continue to attack and therefore we won't see war-wide situation where "neither side attacks".
Yes, I agree with this. Beyond 2025-2026, this war will reach non sustainability for putin and keeping a stalemate will just help get there safer. But this does not refute the idea that the disparity in casualties is caused by offensive actions, which compensate for the firepower difference.
*although, when it comes to relative losses I think the picture depends on the weapon system. I made the case for the Avdiivka losses, where russia ended up basically at a zero change with the captured, refurbished and produced vehicles in that timeframe, while the losses to Ukraine are permanent and lowered the capabilities of the armed forces, since there is close to no heavy gear still being supplied in quantity.
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19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
guess the primary evidence is not in losses or numbers, it is in the fact that the RA have not been able to translate tactical advances into an operational breakout/breakthrough. If the UA were totally overmatched the RA would be advancing tens of kms, if not hundreds. Does anyone think that Russia can do this right now but is holding back due to restraint?
My point in the response is to the daily attrition, which has shifted in favor of russia. Ie a situation where neither side attacks
QuoteIn attritional casulties russia is doing better, the only reason they have more dead at the end of the day is because of the constant meatwaves that get destroyed. Were it a completely static line with both sides not attacking, russia would be way ahead in causing dead & wounded and not even close to the 3:1 ratio that is needed to maintain force parity
Attacking in the current environment successfully at scale is near impossible for anyone.
That russia continues to do so evens the casulties out, whether the russian offensive capabilities outlast the defense and results in a crumbling of the front is known not even to the commanders.
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32 minutes ago, chrisl said:
Thats number of attacks, but not effectiveness)
You asked for data you got data.
If you want to go into dreamland where 1 ZSU drone has the effectiveness of 10 russian ones and cancels out the 10 to 1 artillery shell disadvantage, go ahead.
Theres 0 evidence for that though.
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26 minutes ago, chrisl said:
Because if RU is both dominating with artillery AND using FPVs as numerously and effectively as Ukraine, then Ukraine would be consistently suffering higher casualties than RU. And I don’t think there’s any indication that that’s true.
I don’t spend time on Russian TG, and nobody has posted numbers here to suggest that russia is doing as well with FPVs. If you’ve got data, post it or link it.
Imagies like this exist for both sides
Here is the data
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14 hours ago, chrisl said:
If you multiply it out and take the conservative 1/7, that's about 475 hits/day of something, and over 14,000 hits/month. Those are all either damaged/destroyed vehicles of casualties, or some combination. If each hit on average damages two people/things (not a big stretch, since most successful FPV attacks we see are on a vehicle or small group), that's 28K casualties or vehicles/month that have to be replaced, and 170K/year.
Keep in mind a large portion of FPV are used on a single MG, AGS, or even just an empty dugout. Its a systematic way how defenses are continously degraded more than can be replenished before attacks.
QuoteThe third is the 350K artillery shells per month that RU is producing/procuring/refurbing. If we assume that RU has fired 10K shells/day through the war to get 31,000 Ukrainian KIAs, and assume 3 WIA/KIA, those shells are producing about 170 Ukrainian casualties/day and it's taking ~275 shells to produce a single casualty.
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The other thing that's not making a lot of sense are the various claims that Russia can make or buy even more FPV drones than Ukraine. We're not seeing the same kind of effectiveness - if they were just as numerous and effective as Ukr drones we'd be seeing 4 or 5x higher Ukr casualties than we are. And I don't think we have reason to think that they are that effective and it's just good Ukr OpSec keeping us from hearing about it.
What makes you think so? There are plenty people who count FPV attacks and russia is just a sliver behind in the number of attacks, and completely dominating with artillery.
If you arent seeing the gruesome results, its because you are not frequenting russian TG channels I assume.
In attritional casulties russia is doing better, the only reason they have more dead at the end of the day is because of the constant meatwaves that get destroyed. Were it a completely static line with both sides not attacking, russia would be way ahead in causing dead & wounded and not even close to the 3:1 ratio that is needed to maintain force parity
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@Battlefront.com I think this is the highest quality upload of your favorite river crossing, sadly quite short and not while they attempted it, the carnage must've surpassed what any movie could ever portait.
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48 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
I think this is last reserves being commited as the out of EU shells seem all but confirmed to arrive, so no need to pay with lives what artillery can do
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2 hours ago, zinz said:
https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112041991563168020
Well as reported by Ukraine. But Russian advances are not cheap for the Russians.
The important part is the loss ratio, which at 2.2 while purely on defense is far too low. Not just to attrit russia, but to not be attrited.
Not just in vehicles, but FPV strikes are even worse, russia has near parity, but X times the amount of troops on the line to absorb the losses.
With every day russia becomes more dominant in the force equation, and the rate at which the front moves increases.
Current developments in Orlivka will expadite it
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Kraft