Vet 0369
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Posts posted by Vet 0369
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1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:
I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway.
It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.
Holy Mackerel! WOW, great to hear from you! Hang in there and stay low and safe. I had just been wondering how you were doing.
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12 hours ago, Haiduk said:
We already were liberating in 2014 Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mariuopol, Kostiantynivka and many other towns and villages on Donbas, where locals were "on edge", brainwashed and intimidated after Maidan bu Russian propaganda and local semi-crimimnal lords. Many of them, of course even not 50 %, but anyway really many tied own expectations with Russia. They had hopes Russia will come and their level of life and salaries will grow up to Moscow level. Ukriane liberated these cities and what? They in mass became organize partisan squads? No. All what they could do it scold Ukriane on own kitchens or as ecxeption to spy for LDPR. Alas, Ukraine authorities didn't make filtrations in that time and almost all who organize "referendums", almost all local elites, who supported separatists, but didn't flee - almost all remained at power.
So now we can see paradoxal situation - on occupied terririories, which already 9 years could "enjoy" with Russian order, the level of frustration and dissatisfaction with Russia and own puppet rulers is much more than on Donbas territories liberated in 2014, where people hadn't much time to feel all pearls of Russian World. Because of this so many locals, who to this time expect "when our boys will liberate us from banderites", but they in 99 % never will take arms in own hands. This is just difefrence in mentality. Their capability to self-organization, for establishing of decentralized network is too low, in comparison with centaral and western Ukraine. They alway will expect directives of own chiefs. They need "big boss", but anyway even if he will come, most of them will not aste to enlist.
As far as during ATO Russian milblogegrs wrote local men support Russia only by words, but didn't want to enlist in LDPR troops, so units have significant problems with staffing. It's need a big war, that put Donbas men into army by "iron hand power". So, I don't belive in fierce resistance of locals on Donbas. Maybe something can be in part of Crimea, espacially around Sevastopol, where popu;ation is extreme even not so pro-Russian, but pro-Soviet. Citizens of Sevastopol for example hate new settlers, coming to their city from "continental Russia"
Cue my post some hundreds of pages ago on how in 1973, the U.S.M.C. ran mandatory classes that taught us that the majority of humanity doesn’t care who rules them as long as they have the necessary creature comforts such as food, water, shelter, and etc.
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5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
Why the hell is Russia focusing on an Afrika Corps right now? Don’t they need soldiers? Is this a ruse to mobilize more men?
Even if best case (for Russia) the conflict is frozen and their economy can support the adventure, it’s not like there isn’t going to be epic Russian hunting and shenanigans by various foreign services in Africa.
It’s all about money! The African operations contributes Billions to the Russian government and Putin directly.
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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
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Back to Billbindc's point about perception being more important than reality, it's absolutely true. Russia believes it has the absolute right to do whatever it wants to do and anybody that so much as questions that is perceived as a threat. Exhibit A is NATO because it exists explicitly to prevent Russia from militarily expanding its borders. Since Russia believes expansion is necessary to thrive, in this mentality NATO is oppressing Russia's real potential. Ergo, in Russia's eyes NATO is an existential threat.
I would advance my “opinion” that in each individual viewpoint, the individual’s perception is the ONLY REALITY for that individual.
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On 8/21/2023 at 7:44 PM, Fenris said:
Example of caustic relations back home - something else to sap morale.
Boy, does that sound really familiar! Just like when we came home to the States from Fleet Marine Force, Western Pacific in the 1960s and 1970s. The “good youth, led by Jane Fonda” of L.A. and San Francisco would spit on us and call us “Baby Killers.”
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On 8/21/2023 at 3:58 PM, Elmar Bijlsma said:
Yeah, that shot looks like it went to the left of the leading tank. Somewhat inconsiderate if the lead driver had the time to dismount his stricken tank.
The real question is: Where did the previous shot (0:42) from the same offender go? I see no impact in the back of the lead tank, but I struggle to think where else it could have gone. Perhaps over? Regardless, the gunner in that rear tank is a liability.
Either that or he’s a Ukrainian sympathizer. Probably figured that since the column had been creamed, it was “worth a shot” (see what I did there) to get rid of someone.
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4 hours ago, dan/california said:
If they are combat proven in Ukraine as a good enough solution, with a lower maintenance and training load, I would think Sweden could sell a TON of them. I realize F-35s have a lot more capability, and drones are coming like an avalanche, but there is still a lot to be said a for a manned fighter with NATO standard coms/hardpoints/radar and the ability to land on any decent road.
Whelp, I believe the Gripen IS designed specifically for low-level ground anttack and ANTI-SHIP missions, although I believe it’s a pretty competent fighter also. I have an AJS-37 Viggen in DCS, and it has some pretty amazing capabilities for an upgraded 1970s to 1990s aircraft.
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7 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution.
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“They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said.
The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K.
“And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”
Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.
Gee, I wonder if USAF Pilots could resign their commissions and volunteer for the UKR Air Force, sort of like the Navy, Marine, and Arny Air Corps pilots did to form the “Original” Flying Tigers in China before the U.S. entered WWII?
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24 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:
Hmmm, that single shot at the end of th vid is certainly ominous! I hope it wasn’t what I think it could be.
Also, it is possible that this is part of the UKR PsyOps. The first thing you do with a prisoner, is to strip him of all his equipment and search him to ensure that he isn’t retaining anything he can use to harm you. The second is to evacuate him out of the danger zone. Prisoners might have information that is too valuable to risk him being killed. You don’t leave him lying next to a weapons position that is a prime target. In the vid, the prisoner is just lying there in full gear. Maybe that single shot at the end was him killing the gunner with a hidden handgun. It did sound like a pistol shot, not a rifle shot.
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23 hours ago, Haiduk said:
The scene, worthy of movie %)
UKR machine-gunner of 3rd assault brigade lies together with captured Russian and talks with him:
- So, what do you do here?
- I went to enlistment office to get military ID - I'm 33 y.o, - in order to get a job [by the law employer can't hire a man without military ID]. But theese pidars just shoved me in here, fu..k. I even didn't serve in army, fu...k
- I'l just f...k it
- I have three children
- I'l just f...k it... Let even ten.
Hmmm, that single shot at the end of th vid is certainly ominous! I hope it wasn’t what I think it could be.
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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:
Probably drank some plutonium tea.
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2 hours ago, poesel said:
One reason not to drop Kerch Bridge maybe that it makes retreating easier. Having a way out lessens the resolve of the defenders. IIRC that's from Sun-Tzu, so nothing new.
Actually, the Russians should drop that bridge as soon as push comes to shove in Crimea.
Absolutely dead on! One should always leave an escape route open unless you are trying to force a surrender of the force. The decision all depends on the opponent’s propensity to surrender when faced with insurmountable odds. This is why we train to gain access to the highest floor we reach, through different means. When you drive the opponent up, it traps them and most will fight like cornered rats. When you drive them down from above, they will even risk automatic weapons fire to escape from the lowest floors.
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4 minutes ago, paxromana said:
Yep, Aussie Officer ranks command different levels than US Officers ... a Regiment (Battalion) is commanded by a Lt (Leftenant) Colonel rather than a Colonel as I understand is US practise.
A U.S.M.C. Battalion and Air Wing Squadron are commanded by a Lt. Col. A U.S.M.C. Regiment and Marine Air Group (MAG) are commanded by a full Col, which is equivalent to a Navy Captain.
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17 hours ago, kevinkin said:
Two handsome young people. Go get em. God Bless. But don't drop your nail files.
Wow, it might be simply your observation, but it’s incredibly shallow!
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16 hours ago, paxromana said:
In Australia a Major Commands a Company ...
In the U.S., a Major is the Executive of a Battalion.
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2 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:
On the "yes/no enough support from the US/West"-topic.
I think there is a comparison to be made with WW2.
When in 1940 and 1941 Great-Britain was in it's direst need of help, it did not get overwhelming support from the USA. Mainly because Roosevelt, who really wanted to support Britain big time, did not have the political possiblities to do so.
Churchill asked and begged, bargained and bullied, but - like Zelensky these days - could not get what he needed/wanted.
It was only after Pearl Harbor, and the subsequent declaring of war with USA by Hitler, that the USA started to give overwhelming support to Great Britain.
So unless there is a very blatant trigger-scenario that forces the USA/NATO to go all-out, I think that things will stay as they are, support-wise.
And the terrible question is, does one want such a blatant trigger-scenario to happen?
Not completely accurate. FDR invented “Lend-Lease,” and Congress enacted the Lend-Lease Act to help both Britain and the Soviet Union (after Germany began Barbarossa) quite a while before Pearl Harbor. Both used many U.S. vehicles and aircraft. Probably not as much as they wanted, but they still got a lot.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
You are the one with the CIB, but let me chew on this just a little bit more. The Russian defensive system in southern Ukraine consists of Massive minefields, a lot trenches, and enough firepower, especially longer range firepower like ATGMs to make breaching those minefields extraordinarily slow and expensive, if it can be done at all. The actual density of soldiers holding the first layer or two of that system is not that high though, if I understand this at all well. Concentrating too many troops forward just gets them killed.
If, and this is a near science fiction level if, something like the widget shown in the post that started this discussion existed. And if that widget had had a range of six kilometers, an speed of thirty kilometers per hour, the ability to fly by itself so the soldier was just a passenger, and it could also move cargo, and last and most importantly there were five thousand of the bleeping things available. It would really complicate the current Russian defensive concept, because it would raise the possibility of overwhelming the outer layers of the Russian defensive onion fast enough to break the whole scheme. I freely admit the casualties involved would extremely high. But the question is what those casualties buy you?
An extremely high casualty German airborne assault got the Germans Crete, at essentially the cost of their entire Airborne Corps, they never tried again at any scale. I would be shocked if one average citizen in a thousand has ever heard of the battle. Montgomery got a several whole brigades killed breaking the line at El Alamein, but his follow in forces were ready and sufficient. I think it is fair to say it is considered a great success, even if Montgomery gets too much credit, and a bunch of very brave men who didn't make it back far to little.
This might be the main reason for UKR’S probing attacks. If you can find a way to threaten the flanks and force the enemy to withdraw to consolidate its flanks, then you can breach the mine fields at your relative leisure. I suspect that at some point we will see a process of clearing the AP mines using the “splody fired” methods followed up by infantry on foot to clear away any antitank or AFV munitions, then plows to remove the lion’s share of anti vehicular mines.
I suspect we’ll see at some point we’ll see a coordinated
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
I read a thread in twitter where one guy, who as if has relation to enlistment offices theme, claimed separate unit of former enlistment office servicemen is under forming. Private personnel will be likely from enlistment offices guarding companies and officer staff will be of former chiefs. Poor privates, if true.
Well, everyone should be watching and taking care of their privates.
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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Another example of damages, caused by M30A1 missile strike on the trucks, using by Russians likely for ammunition delivering and plundered grain and other goods export in opposite direction. Reportedly this is Kherson oblast.
The fact that the vehicles are still in column suggests to me that the engines of each one is toast. If my engine was still operable, I suspect someone would have taken the place of any dead or wounded drivers and driven away, even with the flat tires.
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
During the Vietnam War the US implemented many ways for people to avoid being conscripted without having to bribe anybody. The easiest one was to enroll in higher education (University/College). As long as you were in school you could not be drafted. Why spend money illegally bribing Sgt. Recruiter when you could legally avoid service AND get an education? Another way was to enroll in alternative military service, such as the National Guard or the Coast Guard. I expect the same was true for other Federal services, such as border protection (not entirely sure about that). Not only did you not need to bribe someone, but you also got paid for avoiding service. The other way was to bribe a doctor into deeming you unfit for military service. The US had two Presidents that avoided Vietnam using these options, but of course many others did as well.
Steve
Ok, I think this is a a pretty common misconception. Yes, there was a smaller chance that Guardsmen both Army National Guard (ANG) and Air National Guard being activated and sent to Vietnam, it wasn’t a sure thing. The Air National Guard actually mobilized 11 units on January 25, 1968, a week before the Tet Offensive. Three more ANG units were mobilized on May 13. ANG units deployed to Vietnam and South Korea. Also on May 13, 34 Army National Guard units were mobilized, with many of their 12,234 members levied to active-duty units. Eight Army Guard units deployed intact to Vietnam, with the first arriving in August of 1968. That was just a few of the deployments.
There were other, less sure ways to avoid being sent to Vietnam, but it came down to being in the “right place at the right time.” Personal example; in 1969, I enlisted just before High School graduation, in the Marine Corps for four years (with an Aviation Guaranty as I had passed the entry tests with a high enough score) so I wouldn’t be drafted into the Army Infantry for two years which would have guaranteed being sent to Vietnam. In Recruit Training at Paris Island, S.C., my general college test scores were high enough to qualify for Aviation and for Marine Officer Candidate School. When I was offered OCS (without aviation) and a two-year extension of active duty (six years), I weighted my options and remained enlisted because I felt sure that I would graduate as a Second Lt. Rifle Platoon Leader and be sent straight to Vietnam, do not pass go, do not collect $200. When I was sent to Fleet Marine Corps, Western Pacific, I received orders in Okinawa. We were in a long line to receive orders and the orders were Chu Lai for about five sets, but mine were for Iwakuni , Japan. Our Phantoms were F-4 J models that were too new to be allowed to deploy to a war zone, so we never were. I simply lucked out on that one even though I tried to transfer to Chu Lai, but didn’t succeed because they stopped split tours.
I personally take exception to the concept that joining an “alternative” Service of any type was done simply to avoid being sent to Vietnam. Anyone could join the Guard if they tested high enough. So the politicians who spouted the “he joined the Guard to avoid Vietnam” were just spouting BS.For what it’s worth, I actually researched the history of the region, and our involvement there, and will completely agree that the whole thing was a complete travesty and lie fostered by our top politicians.
Sorry for the wall of text Steve, but those types of “observations” tend to infuriate me.
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1 hour ago, kluge said:
While a BB sized object would have difficulty penetrating a block, it would have no trouble puncturing everything else in an engine compartment- think radiators, hoses, electronics, fans and such. Nothing that can't be fixed but more than enough to knock a vehicle out of service for a solid bit.
Repairable, yes, but repairs take up time and resources. And now there are fewer trucks to ship those resources to the frontline.
It all depends on the velocity and mass of the fragment when it hits that cast iron block. Cast iron is not particularly resistant to penetration, especially small fragments of a very dense metal that is traveling at a very high velocity after being ejected by the explosive power of a HIMARS. I remember when I used a cast iron fry pan for target practice, set on edge at 100 yards using a 30-06 1956 Czech Mauser K95. I put eight rounds of 30-06 “silver tip” hunting rounds (not even full jacketed) completely through it without knocking it over. Don’t judge by size, judge by impact energy, and cast iron isn’t very resistant to impact energy.
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5 hours ago, JonS said:
Right, what I mean is that there is an awful lot more Roman history after the Republican period ended, and almost all the defending of Rome (writ large) occurred in that latter period.
I'll give you the Punic Wars in the Republican period, but were they defensive?
Yes, of course they were.! Everyone knows that the best defensive is a good offense!
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5 hours ago, poesel said:
Zelenskyy fired all the heads of the regional recruitment centers. @Haiduk - could you maybe comment on this?
And Pres. Z is going to immediately induct all of the ones who haven’t served into the Army so they can serve Ukraine while earning a soldier’s pay. I like that idea!
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9 hours ago, Butschi said:
That is what I was trying to explain with my story. Almost every country on this planet is the result of what some nobleman or other similar despot was able to take by force and was able to hold on to. A few hundred years ago, nobody cared about that. You ploughed your field and to which fiefdom you belonged had little meaning. Only with the birth of nation states were people deceived into believing these "lines on a map" had actual value by telling us it was about tradition and culture and all that.
If this line on a map is the border between civilization and tyranny, as in your case, that border has a meaning. But because of that not because of any construct called "nation". People, culture and tradition on this side of the German/Dutch border aren't much different than people on the other side. On the other hand, Swabians are an entirely different lot than people in Hamburg.
All humans whether we want to admit it to others, or even to ourselves are tribal, and will ultimately identify and align with others of our “tribe” as defined by our shared values, morality, shared heritage, and goals.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Vet 0369
This! To distill this whole thing down:
1) Remember our own history. In the American Revolution of 1775, a maximum of 33% of the population of the thirteen British Colonies even supported the Revolution. Of that one third that supported it, only about one-third of them i.e. one ninth or 16.5 % of the entire population, actively supported it. And, there was a full 33% of the entire population that “actively” opposed it.
2) Always plan for the worse case scenario. This is something that for some reason, most military and political leaders do not do. If the Joint Staff War Colleges are teaching that leaders must do this, it is apparent that most leaders aren’t listening, maybe because they’re smarter than everyone else, otherwise, they wouldn’t be the leaders?