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Vet 0369

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Posts posted by Vet 0369

  1. 19 hours ago, dan/california said:

    I think you are underestimating three factors that are contributing the Russians commercial aircraft maintenance issues. The first is the extraordinarily tight grip that Airbus and Boeing keep on the parts and maintenance business/process. They do this both because they get the blame when a plane has a problem, and because it makes them a great deal of money. This is facilitated by the highly regulated nature of the business among other things.

    The second issue is that Russia did not launch a full scale program ten years ago to ready to get around the first problem. There are a lot of things they COULD have have done with several years of lead time, but the plan to actually invade was very held to an extraordinarily small group, and even that nasty little cabal in the Kremlin did not have a clue that they were looking at a multi year major war, with massive sanctions and so on. Nobody even tried to prepare for this in advance.

    The third problem, that massively exacerbates the second one, is that the same limited pool of people and resources that might be able to do something about the problem are also being ordered to make an absolute maximum 24/7 effort to increase the production of everything from small arms ammo to Su-34s and Iskanders. I don't think the Russian airlines are at the front of that line. I am not even sure they are IN that line.

    When you add up  the three factors, and the general Russian disregard for anything resembling safety, my advice is take the train.

    I would actually suggest walking!

  2. On 12/20/2023 at 4:20 PM, dan/california said:

     

    There have two REAL emergency landings, and what appears to be spiraling mechanical delays in the last few months. Russia bought quite a few newish planes over the last twenty years, and they are just really hard to keep going without manufacturer support.

    There is really no reason that the Russians should be having issues with aircraft maintenance. They actually have a very competent industrial and manufacturing base tha should be capable of producing virtually any airframe or engine part that they need, unless they have cannibalized their competent machinists, engineers, and mechanics as meat for the SMO. Now, it could be a completely different story if they can’t get the electronics, computers, and such to main their manufacturing base.

  3. On 12/20/2023 at 2:10 PM, dan/california said:

     

    We won't be able to say we weren't warned. The entire West needs to go to wartime level munitions production NOW. That would be between five and twenty five times more than we are producing now.

    What isn’t included here is that Xi used a very specific term during his discussion with Biden. That term was “Peacefully.” When we quote a statement, we should truthfully post the entire statement, not just that which supports our argument!

  4. On 12/20/2023 at 5:26 AM, Yet said:

    if heat and sound are no issue, might as well add hoovercrofts in the equation with jetpacks. 

     Now there’s an interesting question for the engineers on this thread. What is the ground pressure per sq ft or sq m of a U.S. Navy LCAT, and would it set off mines it passed over? Granted they are big and loud, but could they be used for flanking maneuvers? If I remember correctly, the Russians (or at least the Soviets) had hovercrafts for landings back in the 1980s.

  5. 1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

    I guess Heinlein was pretty prescient when he came up with the mobile infantry concept.

    Little item of interest; when I first read “Starship Troopers” in the mid-1970s, i was amazed at how much of the training and organization of the “MI” seemed like the training and general Chains of Command seemed just like the U.S.M.C. As it turns out, RH was a former Naval Officer, so that was probably what he used as his model for the MI. His second blockbuster novel in the 1960s, “Stranger in a Strange Land” (Grok) was the exact opposite, and actually became the “Bible” for America’s counter-culture. Do you grok Hippies?

  6. 3 hours ago, riptides said:

    So you have autonomous jet packs that carry supplies and lethal stuff. Or you drop them in at pre-determined points.

    Hundreds of these provide for instant heartburn in your rear areas. They take mines and fortifications out of the attack calculations.

    It's mobile infantry...in a whole new dimension of warfare.

    And the 1st prize goes to …… Robert Heinlein again!

  7. 5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Thanks for this.  On top of what you wrote, Dan hinted at another issue... freezing.  Water goes wherever it wants to go, and when it freezes it can create any number of different problems.  Many of these mines have probably been sitting around in poor storage conditions and, perhaps, were of low quality to start with. This allows water to get into places that the mine is not designed for.  It freezes and reduces, if not eliminates, the ability of the mine to function as designed.

    Funny enough, a few days ago I was retelling a story to someone about how my tractor seat has a "kill switch" in it that senses no weight on the seat, which then shuts off the engine.  Well, there was a small tear in the rubber seat cover.  Water eventually made its way through the foam cushion and to the switch.  It froze the switch in the "open" state, which meant no electricity to the starter.  I had to sit on the seat to warm it up and then violently bounce up and down dozens of times to get the switch to function correctly.  Under normal circumstances even 1/2 sitting up on the seat is enough to cut the engine.

    Winter in a cold climate can be such fun!

    Steve

    Back in the “mid 70s”. When, when some auto manufacturers were starting to install seat belt switch systems that would prevent starting the vehicle if the seat belt wasn’t assembled to complete the circuit, people would just splice the necessary wires in a loop to ensure starting. You could probably do the same. No system can be “Idiot-proofed” because idiots are so ingenious!. What humans can create, other humans can defeat!.

  8. 6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    That is because they do not work anymore.

    Armor cannot support infantry as it get detected too far out.  This is why we keep seeing them pushed forward in 1 & 2s to snipe, and then blown up.  So basically more infantry mobile guns.

    Infantry cannot protect armor.  ATGM are reaching out to 3-5kms.  UAS are everywhere.  And guns when linked to UAS/ISR are dropping the sky on them before they even reach direct fire distance.  Infantry cannot sweep the ranges needed to protect that armor...and they cannot fly.

    I might have bought the RA "forgetting this" (which would be odd as they demonstrated it in 2014).  But the UA has been feeding troops into western training for nearly 2 years.  And officers into our war colleges for nearly a decade.  The UA simply did not "forget".  In fact they tried it last May-Jun and it failed.

    The combined arms team is broken and no one knows how to fix it.

    Fair point!

  9. 7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    I was talking about those individual jet packs,

     

    Riiiight! I can see it now, a full Battalion  of infantry, sky lined in the air like a shooting gallery! I thin it was Bell that developed a personal hovercraft back in the 1950s that they tested with live, fully geared Soldiers. It actually worked, and they called it a “Flying Jeep”or something. A lot of really influential people loved it and envisioned using it for Infantry assaults, at least until a grizzled old Senior NCO said “Are you out of your effing minds? There is nothing I’d like better than to have a line of infantry flying in the air towards me that couldn’t even return fire for suppression!”

    As I see it, you couldn’t even have a base of fire, or suppression from artillery because of the possibility of friendly fire casualties. There was a reason that the DoD abandoned the concept 60 to 70 years ago.

    Even the favorite of the U.S.M.C, vertical envelopment, would be next to impossible in this environment!

  10. 6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

    Much worse. Many new Ukrainian officers are so-called "jackets" - this is the name regular Soviet officers gave to reserve officers - ordinary citizens who graduated from a civilian higher educational institution with a military department at that university. For example, at the law school where my friend studied there may be an artillery department that trained artillery platoon commanders. The preparation was very minimal (a friend told me that they had an 85 mm D-44 cannon as a training tool).

    Before the war, institutes with a military department were super popular, because they made it possible to avoid conscription. You calmly graduated from university, after which you automatically became a junior lieutenant in the reserves. Then no one thought that war would happen and that he would have to become a real officer.

    The disparaging nickname “jackets” was given to these people by real regular officers of the Soviet army. Because these so-called officers came to military training in civilian clothes. They didn't even have military uniforms. Due to their extremely poor training and virtual uselessness, the attitude towards such officers was very dismissive (we are not members of the same family).

    Today, such officers command platoons and even companies in the Ukrainian (and also in Russian) army. To be fair, I can say that not all “jackets” are bad officers. Just like not all regular officers are “good” officers. Everything depends heavily on a person’s motivation and desire for self-development.

    All officers, whether Regular or Reserve, basically enter the service with the same amount of training. The vast majority of officers were officers simply because they were college grads. They all received the same amount of basic Officer training, and then got their REAL training and experience in the field. The successful “good” officers were successful and good because they listened to their experienced NCOs. Even a college degree wasn’t really necessary. During recruit training, everyone takes a battery of tests to determine their GCT (I believe it stands for “general college test”) score to determine their general placement and “job qualification.” If it it high enough, you qualify for Officer training. In 1969, I was offered the opportunity to attend U.S.M.C. Basic Officer Candidate School, even though I was 19 years old, graduated High School one month before, and had no college. I declined the offer.

    One young (under-aged) Soldier from Texas during WWII  had tried to join the Marine Corps, but was rejected because he was too short. He got into the Army as a Private, and finished the war as a Major, AND, the most decorated serviceman in WWII. His name was Audie Murphy. So I would question the validity of any statement that a “90-day wonder” is something less than a West Point or Annapolis graduate.

  11. 9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    Well evidently somebody thinks moar mech is the key to breaking the deadlock 🙄

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/07/ukraine-is-forming-five-new-mechanized-brigades-now-they-need-vehicles/?sh=3bff7d502f70

    The Ukrainian army is forming five new mechanized brigades. On paper, the 150th, 151st, 152nd, 153rd and 154th Mechanized Brigades represent a significant force—a five-percent expansion of the Ukrainian ground forces....

    The brigades reportedly are drawing their cadres of experienced officers and non-commissioned officers from existing brigades, while filling out their 2,000 or so other billets with new recruits.

    In practice, the Ukrainians seem to appreciate that brigades lose fighting vehicles fast while in combat, and need access to ample stocks of replacement vehicles.

     

    Well, it’s all very simple even though it seems that most military leaders and planners have forgotten the concepts.

    1.ARMOR SUPPORTS INFANTRY! 

    2. INFANTRY PROTECTS ARMOR!

    Contrary to popular belief, and depiction by Hollywood, armor IS NOT CALVARY! In this type of war, armor, except APCs, need to by positioned “hull-down” in overwatch to target the objectives of the infantry assault, not to “lead the charge with bugles blaring.” Yes, the armored “battle-taxis needs to run forward to deploy the grunts, but then, if possible, return to hull-down positions to do close support of the infantry.

    if you don’t have air support, you use predesignated artillery fire on ANY location that can be used for AT assets and heavy weapons the enemy might have to use against your assault element. Battalion size elements and larger (remember always have a minimum of at least 3 to 1 over the enemy force), use double envelopment whenever possible so the enemy can’t concentrate all their forces against the assault force.

    it seems to me that the commanders of today, except in very basic ways the Russians, have forgotten these very basic precepts that I was taught as a Sgt. more than 50-years ago.

  12. 1 hour ago, dan/california said:

    I want to know what they said/did to convince the guys in this tape that things would end any differently from how it ended for the multiple platoons of dead AFVs they were driving right past? I fully expect in a week or so we will get more tape of more suicidal mobiks dying in the middle of what will then be a full company of wrecked AFVs. The Russian systems only strength is its ability to convince large quantities of people to commit suicide. That is the lock we have to pick.

    Edit: There some strong parallels with Imperial Japan at some level.

    It isn't wish talk, it is a rational strategic response to the stated intentions of our primary adversary. Taiwan is the linchpin of the the economic miracle in East Asia. The CCCP understands this, that is why they are frothing at the mouth to control it. For 70 plus years we have been able to deter them remotely, that time is passing very, very quickly. In addition to being a truly unmistakeable signal of U.S. commitment, the Marines could be used to drag the entire Taiwanese military up to speed. If we have to get that division there after the war starts, under a hail of Chinese anti shipping missiles starting AT LEAST  five hundred miles from the Chinese coast it will be beyond expensive in terms of casualties. China is actually getting ready for this fight, if we don't we will be very, very sorry.

    The U.S.M.C. has also addressed this issue. The Commandant of the Marine Corps (who now, thankfully has a seat on the Joint Chiefs of Staff), has also already addressed this eventuality. I must admit that I have much more confidence in the decisions of the Commandant than I have in the suggestions of anyone on this or any other forum.

  13. 13 hours ago, dan/california said:

    Never the less the worst case scenario is the Chinese taking the island the way Putin thought he was going to take Kyiv. That is the one we need to take off the table first. I mean i also advocate putting an entire division of Marines on Taiwan. It would take the ambiguity bit right out of the equation.

     

    So, again you are advocating taking one-third of the entire USMC Infantry force and basically placing them in “garrison”? What would that do to the U.S. ability to respond to “other world hotspots? Think about it, who are referred to as “The President’s Own” due to the fact that the President can deploy a USMC rapid deployment force at a moment’s notice? While it is an honor that you consider  the USMC to be such an amazing force, we do have human frailties. The USMC this three active Infantry divisions ( MARDIV) and three active air wings (MAW) that support each MARDIV. In addition we have one active reserve MARDIV and one MAW. Marine infantry basically trust only Marine or Navy Air for Close Air Support, so they will have one of them everywhere they are deployed. The concept of deploying a MARDIV and MAW on Taiwan as a deterrent is totally unnecessary and a waste of a deterrent force. Marines are basically able to deploy to any location in the World within 72 hours. Case in point, when I was a Reservist in the 4th MARDIV in 1980, just after the abortive hostage rescue mission in Iran, I received  a phone call at home (just north of Boston) on Wednesday evening ordering me to report for duty in Chicopee, Ma (about 120 miles from home) by 1500 on the next Friday. I reported in and by 1900, we were on Air Force C-141s and on route to Camp Lejeune in North Carolina. When we landed a few hours later, we landed with the rest of the ENTIRE Regiment, in clouding Armor, Artillery, and Transport. And that was an Active Reserve Regiment.Think about what an active MARDIV can do today.

    Please stop that type of silly “wish” talk.

  14. 3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    S’ok.  I think he left.  Like a good missionary he did his gods work and put the time in.  And then bailed once Steve took out his banning stick.  I am sure he will be back.

    I really hope not. I get too stressed with that type of garbage. Definition of stress: “The overwhelming desire to choke the living **** out of some ignorant S.O.B. who really deserves it!”

     

  15. On 12/15/2023 at 10:31 AM, FlemFire said:

     

    Average age of Ukrainian soldier is over 40, posted in this topic.

    The Russians have a 7:1 drone advantage, posted in this topic.

    The Russians have a 20:1 artillery advantage (by tube), posted in this topic.

    The Russian economy is increasing its GDP with a stabilized war expenditure, posted in this topic (by you).

     

    How is this trolling, exactly? I'm dealing with the same information as everyone else.

     

     

    How does this have any relevance to anything? Ukraine is in a war for its very existence, and it’s only natural that they recruit and conscript anywho they feel can make a contribution. Case-in point, when I was in Norway on a NATO joint operation, I learned that EVERY Norwegian citizen, from the time they graduated secondary school, was REQUIRED to serve 15 months in the Army, or 24 months in the Air Force/Navy as long as they were physically and mentally qualified. They then served in the Active Reserve until age 45, and then in the Inactive Reserve until age 65! That was in case they were invaded again (this time by the Soviet Union). Your comments about “50-year olds” in Ukraine are nothing more than “Red Herrings.”

    You have ONE chance to address this intelligently, before I put you on ignore.

     

     

  16. 16 hours ago, JonS said:

    I give you that one, but NOT mist-eating-mist

    Welllll, it could be disputed on the argument (here in coastal New England) that “fog” is basically a ground level cloud of 100% saturated air (humidity level and air temperature being equal), and “mist” is a very fine precipitation from a cloud that is falling toward the surface. Two completely different weather conditions!

  17. 4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

    As it turned out, this attack also hit the Russian soldiers on the front line. They also used the mobile operator Kyivstar, since Russian operators do not operate in Ukraine.

    And this highlights an issue that ii’ve been trying to understand since basically since the First Iraq war.

    Why the hell are the Militaries all over the world allowing their members to carry their mobile communications in the field? I seem to remember a term “Signals Intelligence” that could gather a lot of information about units, dispersion, possible intentions, ad nauseam. If I remember correctly, Marines In the field in Vietnam were restricted to carrying only dog tags, Geneva Convention card, and possibly Military ID card (unsure about ID card). You couldn’t carry any money, notebooks, letters, or anything else that could be used for intelligence purposes.

    For those of you who are still active or Reserve Military, any country, what are your current restrictions in the field on cell phones and such? To be honest, the answers could really terrify me.

  18. 19 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

    Thank goodness no one was hurt.

    Sad thing is forget the right procedure for clearing a weapon. Some people don't even know that ejecting a magazine is not enough to clear a semi-automatic pistol. I have heard stories of some people killing themselves because of this mistake.

    I own a few firearms and I support civilian ownership of firearms, but this all reminds me of how important firearms education is.

    Sometimes it isn’t a simple matter of “forgetting.” I must ashamedly admit that even I, a former USMC Rifle Platoon Sgt. and Weapons Section Leader screwed up royally a few years ago when I was on the range at my local Fish and Game Club. I was target shooting with my Ruger Mini-14. I fired a shot and my bolt locked, so I assumed my magazine was empty. At the same time, the “ceasefire”alarm sounded, and we went down-range to inspect our targets. When I got back to my shooting bench, the Range Officer was standing next to my ench and said “Is that your rifle?” I looked down and realized that I had not only left the magazine in the rifle, there were rounds to the magazine because I had a malfunction that locked the bolt back. He said “Never do that again!” I was absolutely mortified! I have been clearing weapons for almost 60 years, and that f..k-up I have ever done in all that time. You can be VERY SURE that it will never happen again.

  19. On 12/6/2023 at 4:48 PM, Jarran said:

    Hi, I have been lurking this thread since the start of the war and would just like to contribute with an exellent video from the Ward Carrol channel on youtube. This video talks about some stuff that has been in the talks lately, especially the air war and F-16.  Would also recommend his older videos with Justin Bronk.

     

    Video Name: Justin Bronk on the Fate of the West if Russia Wins in Ukraine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmMclP8dlI0&t=1081s

     

     

    // Jarran

    Welcome to the thread! As you’ve probably deduced, we’re a cranky, contentious group (myself exempted as I’m a perfect voice of reason, most times) but don’t let that scare you off from commenting! Again, welcome aboard.

     

  20. On 12/6/2023 at 3:40 PM, dan/california said:

    I just wrote and called both Senators and my Congressman about getting Ukraine funding done. Every single reader of this board who is a U.S. Citizen should do the same.

    LOL, while I understand and sympathize with you, I live in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Massachusetts, so ALL of our Federal Representatives and Senators, and most of our State Representatives and State Senators are Democrats, and I refuse to associate with any of them since Ted Kennedy left the Senate. He at least would reach across the aisle and negotiate with the Republicans “for the good of the country” as would the Republicans of that era. Today, EVERYONE’s philosophy is “my way or the highway.” In both parties!

  21. On 12/6/2023 at 10:30 AM, Haiduk said:

    Likely successfull assasination by GUR/SBU

    Deputy of LPR "parliament" Oleg Popov, tied with LPR intelligence was blew up in own car in Luhansk and later died in hospital. Though, some Russian milblogger claim this can be inner showdowns, because Popov belonged to group of Igor Kornet, former "minister of internal affairs" of LPR, who had a prob;lems woth Russian Investigatin Committee and was blown up and heavy wounded in May 2023 in Luhansk.

     image.png.523eeecdd44a8af569dfdddb0ca7b351.png

    Also by unconfirmed information of several Russian TGs, former Ukrainian deputy Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia, known with own crazy Zhyrinovskity-style statements, was found murdered today in Moscow oblst on territory of hotel. According one info he was shot dead, by other killed likely with stiletto blow to the temple   

    image.png.481765f3d14c3d12cd1b98c16a04d525.png

    Ok, at the risk of sounding really ignorant after 3071 pages of this thread, is the GUR/SBU Russian or Ukraine?

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