Haiduk

Reportedly Russians deliverd 1000 FPV drones to Belgorod, from where they likely will be share among units of Troops Groupingh "West", which activated enough in last two weeks on Kupiansk direction and even could push back UKR forces, capturing small village Masiutivka and nearby territory. According to Kostiantym Mashovets, TG "West" now has next forces: - 3 moror-rifle and naval infantry brigades - 10 motor rifle and tank regiments - 11 motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops (actually more just "rifle" than "motor-rifle") - 5 separate motor-rifle battlions of Territorial Troops - 2 BARS battallions - 1 PMC battalion-level unit. In reserve: 2 motor-rifle regoments and 1 rifle regiment Most of "regular" units are represented by 1st Guard tank army, 20th Guard CAA and some units of 6th CAA. These are 2nd guard motor-rifle division, most units of 4th guard tank division, 47th tank division, 3rd motor-rifle division, 27th motor-rifle brigade, elements of 25th motor-rifle brigade and other. All these forces have about 49 000 of personnel, up to 400 tanks (about 25 % of them under repairng), 406 (350 according other info) armored vehciles, up to 430 artillery sysstems over 100 mm, 110 MLRS, 8 operative-tactical missiles launchers. Probably TG "West" can try to push UKR froces behind R-07 road on the section Kupiansk - Novoselivske and their firthe objective can be restoring of defense line along Oskol river - in cooperation with Russian troops, which have been conducting offensive actions on Kreminna - Zarichne direction. To TG "West" are subordinated "border covering forces" - Operative Groups "Brinask", "Belgorod", "Kursk", which have additionally up to 23000 of personnel, 88 tanks, 340 armored vehciles, 350 artillery pieces and 88 MLRS. So, according to Mashovets opinion, UKR troops should allow Russians to start their offensive efforts here, to tie their forces. But this "allowing" shoul be controlled and probably "Belgorod offensive" of RVC is a part of the complicated game. Also he told now in Russian General Staff opinions are divided 50/50. One part claims UKR offensive is a bluff and we have to atatck, in that time when other part insists UKR offensive is a real and we need to prepare to defense.

Younger officers are more open to Western military–style leadership, while older officers have clung to Soviet doctrine. Alas, this is by-effect of mass mobilization and establishing of dozens new brigades, expanding of Operative Commands HQs, etc. All this required alot of command staff, but where to get it? There are many retired officers, who finished their service before 2014 and even earlier. Mobilization age for retired high-ranked officers in Ukriane is 65 years. Negative effects have been becaming to develop since 2016, when large number of "old schooll" officers were mobilized (and not only major+, but of lower ranks and former NCOs). Now their number has increased much more. Most of these officers have a strong Soviet army upbringing with tough centralization of decisions making, formalism, thoughtlessly following to paper instructions even they are obsolete and don't match anymore with real situation, most of them are "bureacrats-servicemen", but not "warriors" "I'm a chief - you are a fool", "initiative is punishable". Many of new formed brigades have very avarage results due these commanders and because of the same old staff now moved also in trainig centers, where sodiers still be train by Soviet time program, just slightly upgraded diring ATO, but in current war it mostly useless. Alternative training centers for infantrymen and sqaud leadrs, where their new training program proves own high effectiveness, can't embrace enough of personnel and even these efforts continously encounter resistance of differnt HQs, where oak-headed colonels consider these trainings didn't match to current instructions, thus are illegal and unproper. Alas, all attempts of Zaluzhnyi and other top commanders to promote these innovations into official training program still stuck in bureaucracy swamp, which more similar to sabotage. Just "old staff" can't rebuild themeselves to new reality, they are just so accustomed to do and don't want to change anything, they also resist to cancling lot of paper works for officers, because then a presence of most of them will lose any sence as "journal checkers". So, as said one our soldier at the begining of war, and who's words became a meme "Russians are losing not because we are so strong, but because they are much more stupid then we are"

If something really hit, this usually became knowingly enough quickly through messages in Telegram local chats. Not videos, just mentions about "boom in place X". The same for occupied Donbas teritories. Though, official Air Forces statistic usually says about total number of launched missiles/UAVs and number of intercepted. But their statistic doesn't include territories close to frontline and in some reason S-300/S-400 missiles. For example in Monday, when officially 10 Iskanders were launched on Kyiv, number of realy launched Iskanders were 11 - one hit in Kupiansk. Photos of building damage in Kupiansk were issued officially, but this Iskander wasn't "counted" in strike statistic.

One more video of Berdiansk port hit:

I don't know how is correct these assesments and what source of them, but let it be I remind, according to latest GUR assesments Russia still capable to produce monthly about 25 Kalibrs, 35 Kh-101, 5 Iskander-M, 2 Kinzhals

RVC still fight near Shebekino and likely controls part of Novaya Tavolzhanka village Geolocation

This night Russians conducted next combined air attack - 15 cruise missiles Kh-101/555/Kalibr and 21 Shakheds were launched. Most of them headed to Kyiv. All enemy objects were shot down. I was so sleepy, that even didn't wake up, when AD destroyed several targets over neighbour quarters %)

Utkin is just field commander, but since Wagner became active political tool of Kremlin, it operations need more and more money, so this PMC led one of Putin's minions with own business - Prigozhyn. He is owner of "Concord" company and some others, through which finances flow from Kremlin (FSB?) and from resources mining in Africa and Syria Must be given credit to Kremlin policy in Africa, using PMC as "indirect methods" - they silently pushed off France from several countries of their orbite like Mali and CAR. Reportedly minin of gold in CAR gives to Prigozhyn 250 millions $ for year

Reportedly fuel trucks stood on the territory of plant. "Monocrycstal" is important enterprise, which produce artifical sapphires and other stuff, using in science and military optical systems. Wives of plant employees complain that chiefs of plant force workers to remove ruines and recover remained sapphires from burned equipmnet with bare hand. Some crystals have 100 kg of weight. And all this under shelling of town. Local administratin didn't declare emergency situation, citizens are leaving the town mostly on own wheels, taking to own car some people without own transport. Centralized evacuation can't maintain removal of population from dangerous zone. W/o emergency situation, people, which houses were damaged can't get any compensation, they also can't get a status of displasment persons. So, some people just moved themselves to noirthern outskirt of the town ans wait what will happen further. Intensive shellings of border area of Belgorod oblast have been lasting already three days. Shebekino SW suburbs - villages Novaya Tavolzhanka and Titovka suffer not only shellings from UKR side, but also from Russian side, including TOS-1 fire. RVC also claimed they have spotted gathering of command staff in the building of local police directorate and hit the building with Grad MLRS.

Currently I'm in subway, coming home from the work ) We haven't shelters in our quarter and because ballistic missile comes to Kyiv through 5-6 minutes after the launch, we can only "in God and AD trust" )

And what? They also used blue-and-yellow flag. So, our flag also "fascist symbol", according to this logic

Serviceman of 14th radar brigade shot down approaching "Lancet" with shotgun. Reportedly civil shotguns are becoming popular among UKR servicemen like additional anti-drone weapon, which allow to fight with commercial drones on low altitudes.

No, this is Milanovich is contaminated by "Russian world" and probably Russian money %) In Russian eyes any mention of Ukraine as a nation or country, different from Russians is obvious "fascism and treason of Russian unity"

Patriot missiles also can be dangerous for citizens during ballistic interceptions - this is an accident happened on Monday during mass daytime Iskander strike. Looks like one Patriot interceptor failed and fell with explosion near the bridge in Dnipro. The bridge was closed for two days and this caused big traffic jams in Kyiv in NE districts. Interesting that GUR office is close to this place, so Russian propaganda claimed "GUR HQ was successfully hit" %)

Result of night attack - 7 Iskander-M and 3 Iskander-K are intercepted, but large fragments of misiles, damaged several buildings and cars. Most of damages are in NE districts of Kyiv. Tragical incident happened when people tried to come in shelter located in polyclinic. Drunken security rejected to open the door and in this moment either was air explosion or large fragment of intercepted missile hit at this place - two women and 9-year girl were killed, 12 were wounded. The security is arrested now, probably investigation will be opened against head physician of polyclinic, which probably has ordered security to reject passing of people. This is not firsr accident, where during air raids people either encountered with closed shelters or owners of private facilities or residentioal complexes rejected a passing for "not-residents" SInce morning two more air raids alarms of ballistic manace, but both times there were EW imitations of launches. On the photo - polyclinic building, damaged this night and some unknown building ruined by fragment of missile

Oh, sh....t. 3:30 of night now and next mass ballistic strike on Kyiv was 20 minutes ago. It was VERY loud and reportedly over left-bank districts of the city. About two dozens explosions. Preliminary Iskanders, launched from Klintsy area, Briansk oblast. Looks like all were intercepted. I think, more details will be at the morning. Well, I should try to sleep after THIS.

No, see above in my post why it could be done and why it should to be continued and what effect this already caused Is this serious mistake to shell Belgorod oblast? Was it serious mistake for allied bombers to bomb German cities in WWII?

These were our UAVs (UJ-22 UAV of UKR design was among of those, which attacked). And I think, this is not last time. Russian citizens, especially in satiated rich Moscow have to feel what is a war, which is not reality TV-show.

Reportedly idea to conscript convicted to MoD units was bad idea without Wagners disciplne. For several days already third of four news about mass desering of convicts with a wepon. Some Russian blogger says 90 convicts abandoned own positiosn near Svatove and fled. According to Mashovets, all last news about deserted convicts are about Army, not Wagners. In Army Russians establised some sort of "penalty battalions" of WWII times, but manned by convicts. They organized in companies with a name "Shorm-Z" and attached to assault units "Storm" as "first line meat attackers"

3rd assault brigade continues to push back Russians toward Klishchiivka and SE along canal

This is residental building in Kyiv, being struck by Shakhed this night. 1 killed woman (she came to balcony to look how AD work and in this monent the drone hit the house) and 22 injured settlers. The city was attacked yesterday three times throughout of 24 hours (Shakeds + Kh-101, then Iskanders, then Shakheds again). Most dangerous attack Russians conducted at 11:00 of morning, when many people already were on streets on foot, in cars or in public transport. 11 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles Iskander-M/ Iskander-K where launched. My "aerophobia" of Feb2022 turned back, when I heard multiple missile sounds over my house. Well, then I read theses were Patriots... They intercepted all missiles again, but their upper stages have been falling on streets, full of people. In was a God's lucky and protection - that only one citizen was wounded with these parts Here is how vere lucky, those, who drove along the road, when part of Petriot fell So, let Moscow burn. No mercy.

About attack on Moscow. Brilliant blow, which had not military sence and not such moral punch, but an action to grow more "uncertainity" and to cause more cracks both between influent figures and inside Russian society. Here is a map of drone crashes and impacts In yellow square is a location of Putin's residence in Novo-Ogariovo. Also many impacts were in elite suburbs of Moscow - Rubliovka, Barvikha, Greenfield were lives "fat of the land". Many of Russians adore Putin, but have "class hate" on oligarchs and very rich inhabitants of theese elite suburbs, where average check in local restaurant can be more than month salary of usual Russian citizen somewhere in province. So we have: 1. GUR fueled much more the withstanding of Prigozhyn and MoD. Now Prigizhyn in very brutal manner has spoke out not only about stupid generals, who passed this UAVs, but also against authotity officials , "who are doing nothing and just sit in own comfort armchairs on theit asses, smeared with expensive elite cremes" 2. Reaction of usual Russians on the strike on elite "oliarch" suburbs was mostly malevoilent. This reaction was so mass, that Solovyov was forced to scold own compatriots for such position Average-class elite cottage in Rubliovka, hit by drone 3. Most of Russian (so-called) liberals, follwers of Navalnyi, completely showed own imperial inside covered with exclaims "why us?". Who had illusions, but they obviously agaist Putin, but they are the same chauvinists and imperialists. From other probable targets: Reportedly the distillery was hit in Ostachevo, suburb of Moscow Russian ballerine Volochkova, posted a storys where told she heard explosions nearby her home, where military unit is located. OSINT community has found this place near Nikolo-Uriupino town - this is m/u 11105-2 - the base and stores of one of battalions of 1st engineer-sapper brigade (deployed in Murom city) And about "attack on innocent civilans". These "innocent civilians" voted for Putin and all pro-Kremlin parties or where just indeifferent ("we are out of policy"). But indifference of millions born dictature of one. But all they - "vatniks and enough number of "indiffernet liberals", all they wanted a "small victorious war" to feel own imperial "greateness". They wanted "to repeat" and reach Berlin and Atlantic as they have seen this in stupid TV-animations . So, time to pay bills. This is even not allied carpet bombing of German cities, settled by "innocent Germans" in WWII. This is just an opportunity to feel the snickering Moscow, what feel Ukranians in own cities, when they hear almost each night explosions in the sky or on the land.

Interesting that UKR military officials never say about losses after the any strike. And suddenly - "airfield damage, fuel depot in fire, 5 aircraft were taken out". Even some Russian milbloggers wrote own doubts - maybe this is just PsyOps, because weren't any videos even distant with huge smoke over Starikostintyniv airfield. PS. Reportedly for Storm Shadows were upgraded Su-24MR

Multiple expliosions reportedly on Kursk airfield - homebase of 14th fighter aviation regiment (Su-30SM) Sound of shooting in Sudzha district of Kursk oblast. Likely next RDK raid, but no info for now

Interesting reaction of so-called "Russian liberal opposition" on RVC raid. It mostly very negative, especially from "libertarians" wing. But mostly these are complaints like this: There is no any legion of free Russia. Free Russia sits in jail, or has droven to emmigration or sits at home. This sign "white-blue-white" - the symbol of anti-Putin and anti-war Russia, whoever wouldn't appropriate it there. Those, who considers else - go to ban in orderly rows. Russian liberals are typical "white coats" - they rejected force scenario of elimination of Putin's power. They always complains how multiple and invinsible OMON and Rosgvardiya and how they helpless in front of these hordes. So, they consider their lament from emmigration and talks about "Beautiful Russia of Futire" with a glass of smoothies in fasionable hipster cafe is a real opposition fihgt with regime. In discussions with Ukrianians they directly say "Well, then come and show us how to fight with OMON, and we will watch how you will care with all of them!" Ok. RVC showed. But liberals says they are not real opposition, of course, the weapon and blood can get dirty their "white coats". Interesting also many Russian liberals when say "stop war" and "we are for peace" indeed means freezing of conflict. When Navalnyi suddenly changed own mind and said that Crimea should be returned to Ukraine after the war, many his followers became sharply criticize him. Some of liberals already blame Ukraine in economical crisis (smoothies likely cost much more) - "if you lay down the weapon you wouldn't loss so much people, your cities wouldn't be destroyed and we wouldn't suffer because of sactions, visa ban and crisis - if you wouldn't resist soon all would be as good recently. Indded even in Iran people live enough good" They live in own rose pony world, when in Ukraine invaded not Russian army, but some "Putin's army". They don't recognize own mobilized soldiers as agressors because they are "victims of Putin's regime and they havn't a choice". They also consider Russian citizens are "victims of Putin's regime" and they havn't suffer under sanctions, they havn't pay reparations after the war, and even more - Russian people have to receive reparations in first order. So, if somebody on the West have some hope on Navalnyi, this is wrong bet. Most of his followers are worse that vatniks. And one more of "pure gold" from rose pony country of Ruissian liberals