Grigb

Mobilization is playing with fire in a warehouse full of gun powder. While the initial mobilization did not destroy the government, it did significantly harm it (economically and politically). This is why the Kremlin is afraid. Furthermore, the Kremlin does not have a manpower shortage (there are Rosguard and police units). The Kremlin has issues with conventional combat formations. Mobiks will not fix the problem because, even if you have enough AFVs and other vehicles, mobiks are not trained to compete with Wagnerites or AFU. Finally, because mobiks are unreliable, they cannot be relied on to halt Wagnerites or AFU on their own. As a result, it is not likely the Wagnerites march impacted mobilization calculations.

It is funny, but I belive they are military pragmatists. They are Ultras in comparison to civilian Pragmatists, but unlike civilian Ultras, they recognize the true limits of the RU army, therefore they decided to finish this war in order to better prepare for the next one.

That's what I think as well. Moscow march was leverage to force Putin to change something not to overthrow him specifically. Yet.

AFAIK He had not been seen in public. He's most likely still in his bunker at one of his residences. He seldom leaves it because he is terrified of covid. There are several rumors, but I have yet to come across anything reliable. The most common is the replacement of Shoigu and Gerasimov for Dumin and Surovikin. There is no information on long-term plan, but if we evaluate the theme of public messages Prig have sent for a few months, we can see a specific pattern: Old foolish and inept RU generals are to blame for the failure to win the war. Explain all dishonorable orders (such as retreat orders) as necessary to minimize damage done by generals. Stop assaulting, shift to strategic defense, begin retreating from indefensible land, defend what is possible, delay AFU. If it is not possible, withdraw totally from Ukraine. Sue for peace selling it to the RU public as a hard but necessary move (We need time to train soldiers because we are now sending them unprepared because to old, foolish, inept generals). It is unknown how they intend to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, but given Wagnerite propensity for violence, it might be another terror campaign or even nuclear threats. Wait it out till the West (ahem, "old" Europeans, ahem) resume dealing with them because make peace not war, fair treatment and do not poke Nazi bear

Just another day in RU.

RU military does have fetish with WW2 Germans -RU BTGr concept was based on German Kampf groups. For RU military Allies are heinous weak untermesh that lack spiritual strength. Germans of Nazi period however are seen as evil but equal in spiritual strength to RU.

UKR situation morning update 10:37 https://t.me/dva_majors/19334 RU claim AFU gained foothold near Antonovsky bridge Antonovsky Bridge. The area of Dachas [cottage houses]. Kherson direction at 10.30 25.06 The enemy returned to their original location after the flood [AFU had a presence here before to the flood]. Several [RU] assault parties have attempted to retake this territory. They got involved in a gun fight, requested artillery help, and made good headway until they reached the depths of the Dachas. [RU retreated] Back to the starting positions. The intensity of artillery work in the area has escalated dramatically in recent days. The enemy's losses remain unclear. However, [to avoid arty fire] the boats constantly change berths and go at top speed. 11:04 https://t.me/rusich_army/9594 RU Nat confirmation that Ka-52 is downed and crew is most likely dead 11:29 https://t.me/DeepStateUA/16918 UKR DeepState - most reliable (and because of that often the slowest) UKR source Situation at the front as of the end of the day on June 24, 2023 Belorussian, Belgorod and Seversky fronts — no changes. Svatovsky front - the enemy continues local offensive operations toward the positions of our troops in the area of the Serebryansky Forestry [Woodland South-West from Kremmina]. Bakhmut front - fighting continues to the west of Klishiivka and near the SiveroDonetsk canal. In both places, the Ukrainian armed forces had partial success. Avdiivka front - no changes. A colossal attack was repelled by our defenders. The enemy used more than a dozen AFVs and for several days actively tried to break through the defense along the Vesele-Krutaya Balka line. In Marinka, the enemy continues to attack, the defense of the settlemt continues for the 17th month. Berdyansk direction - fighting continues on the Levadne-Novodarivka section. The enemy is clunging to the ledge and will try to hold it at all costs. Zaporozhye front - fighting continues north of Robotne, the Ukrainian armed forces again had a partial success. Tavrichesky front - no changes. Attempted military coup in the Russian Federation. The coup completely failed. There is one more political corpse in the Russian Federation. And the whole world has seen that almost all the power resources of the katsaps are now in Ukraine, and if a military competitor appears in the same weight category, the Muscovites have no chance to defend their country. Analytical note. The enemy has enough reserve and forces to continue offensive operations in a number of sectors of the front. The [Ukraine] Defense Forces continue their limited offensive operations and are making progress. To understand how difficult it is to return every meter of land, you can see the recent changes near Klishcheyevka, where the Ztgr "Azov" (3 Separate Assault Brigade and attached units) and "Adam" (80 SAirABr and 5 SABr ) gnaw our land from f*ggots.. Today we want to celebrate the successful actions of 110 SMRBr and 3 SABr

Morning update 10:02 https://t.me/GrafinyaNegoduet/1390 Claim the downed aircraft was IL-22 (not IL-18). 10 men died. Claim it was attacked due to stupidity of Wagnerite AA guy 10:18 https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/64975aec9a7947530997c111 "CTO [Counter-terror protocol] will be canceled in the very near future," a Kremlin spokesman said. "Due to the fact that the process of escalating tensions has been reversed, there will be all the prerequisites for this," he added. [This is Kremlin speak for - there is no firm date for that] 11:00 More rumors about the deal but no confirmation of any sort 11:11 https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10913 Video: Rostov - civilians are protesting arrival of Police after retreat of Wagnerites. They shout - Traitors! 11:15 https://t.me/KotNaMirotvorze/16772 Claim - No Personnel changes [at RU MOD] today 11:20 Ru Nats are asking who was onboard of IL-22? [It was flying Command Point] https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10914 Nesmyan (Civilian Girkin) Opinion On the contrary, people cheerfully socialized, photographed and posed against the backdrop [of Wagnerites], had intimate chats, and raced to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away from [HQ]. No one came out to block tanks with Putin portraits; the change in power in their brains happened very instantaneously. If Prigozhin had captured Moscow, I believe he could easily have organized a demonstration in Luzhniki [stadium] under the banner "Let us support Russia's hope!" 11:24 https://t.me/operline_ru/36003 Claim - IL-22 was carrying operational group from staff of Western Military District. RU Nats are curios why it was sent to the area. 11:25 https://t.me/strelkovii/5708 Claim - Girkin quotes private channel Dmitry Utkin led the column of the Wagner PMC that was driving to Moscow. Utkin's staff group devised a plan to enter the city and block [surround] the Ministry of Defense and General Staff buildings. It is unknown whether General Mizintsev was involved in the planning of the "March on Moscow." 11:34 https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33403 Post from local woman that can be interpreted that Kolomna bridge is still blocked and not accessible and most likely will not be accessible tomorrow. 11:38 https://t.me/cmiye/11375 Report from Locals The Counter-Terror Protocol was canceled everywhere except the Moscow region. Chechens are still standing in Kolomna, roads are [still] blocked. Tomorrow the children will have the Unified State Exam, but teachers can't go for assignments because of closed roads. No orders have been received from the leadership of the Moscow region so far. Governor Vorobyov has been silent for more than a day. And in general, everyone is wondering where he is. It's no secret that Vorobyov is very close to the "Shoigu family" and yesterday's events made him a little nervous. 11:59 New rumors that Second season of RU Game of Clown Thrones is coming, without Prig but with Wagnerite military leadership (Utkin)

We have new contestant in the RU Game of Clown Thrones https://t.me/strelkovii/5708 Claim - Girkin quotes private channel Dmitry Utkin led the column of the Wagner PMC that was driving to Moscow. Utkin's staff group devised a plan to enter the city and block [surround] the Ministry of Defense and General Staff buildings. It is unknown whether General Mizintsev was involved in the planning of the "March on Moscow."

We don't know anything about Peterburg yet. We have no indication that his camp was attacked at all. It does not appear to be like a total improvisation. Some aspects are, but the overall plan most likely is not. Prig does appear to be just the public face of this... performance. But we have little information regarding the real goals.

Fighter-bomber (infamous VKS pilot) [UPDATE] Other RU Nats are disputing it but not denying presence of Wagnerites. They say it was like this from the beginning of SMO, Wagnerites are just guarding Millerovo, nothing really change.

The "lost" Chechens were finally found guarding Kolomna bridge (Moscow region)

Looks like Prig was staying at Rostov HQ the whole performance.

Peskov denied any talks about RU MOD leadership changes.

Now we have video of Wagnerites leaving Rostov

Counter-terror protocol is still in effect.

Interesting, I see videos of Wagnerites preparations to leave Rostov but not the videos of them leaving.

The AFAIR agreement was revealed around 40-60 minutes before the cut off time. However, speculations of negotiations existed even before that. Do not think it is related.

A lots of different unconfirmed rumors about the agreement. Do not see need to discuss them. Let's wait and see.

Interesting claim regarding HQ capture

Fighter-bomber 12 pilots were killed today.

Reports of Rosguard units puling back from Moscow

We do have several reports from RU Nats about it.

True

There are conflicting reports regarding Wagnerites pulling back. [UPDATE] RT reports they are pulling back from Rostov HQ. Locals report nothing changed yet.