Grigb

I would like to make a bet over something you belive is unreasonable (recapturing 100% of territory). I hold different opinion and ready to bet. For different reasons this exact scenario I assess as unlikely and not ready to bet on it. There is second bet I can offer - the war ends with UKR victory (means RU withdrawal from 100% of UKR territory + official end of hostilities/peace agreement) in the timeframe: between 9 month and 15 months from now. All conditions above must be met for my victory. In all other cases it is your victory. As 15 months is a long period then on 31 of December 2024, I will ask Steve to help us and make a decision if the overall situation has signs of possible UKR victory in time defined by me or not. In case the decision is negative (no signs of possible victory in time frame I defined) I will concede the defeat. If there is disagreement on anything I will ask Steve to make the decision and will honor it. The prize is a bottle of Gin (I suggest our own choosing because it is not about money and to avoid the hassle of finding the exact one required).

"Military blogger", FFS.

I am convinced that I will taste the drink, and I prefer gin.

Here we go again. If you make your enemy believe that something big is occurring, he is more likely to commit all he was hiding earlier, letting you to attack them with artillery/himars. In brief, Ru panicked and ordered hidden artillery batteries to begin fire, revealing their location to UKR CB. The RU idea of trying defense in depth emerged as a result of a review of mistakes made during the UKR Kharkiv offensive. It did not benefit them as much as you believe since they eventually rejected the defensive approach. I don't see any evidence that the pro-UKR public has changed its views. I see that the anti-UKR public has become louder. Everyone else is experiencing an emotional roller coaster, which is perfectly natural. They get hyped when they hear the positive news.

Let us have a bet. If the war ends without Russia withdrawing from Ukrainian land, I will send you a bottle of gin (not cheap, but nice). If it ends with full RU withdrawal, you will send me a bottle of gin.

ATGM teams and drones are not the primary UKR issue. UKR drones can deal with ATGM teams. UKR can effectively neutralize RU drones at the place of their choosing (they are doing it in Krynki). Mines are the problem, but they can be dealt with. UKR main problems are Gliding bombs, Helicopter and Airplane ATGMs (plus luck off shells for offensive operation). They cannot practically deal with them at all. UKR are risking launching HIMARs & Co. Effectiveness of RU AD is exaggerated. There are ways to deal with them. AFAIR UKR explanation, they will gain more flexibility for striking (different platforms have different operational limitations). And it will complicate RU options in countering UKR platforms. Yes. 1) Literally nobody calls F-16 Wunderwaffe except you. 2) After Patriot downed a few of RU planes in the Kherson direction, RU suspended glide bombing for a few days and considerably reduced bombing activity for almost a month. They only lately resumed bombing at the same intensity. Once Patriot assisted A-50 in becoming a submarine, RU stopped patrolling the Ukrainian border. They currently patrol around 200 kilometers farther. As a result, they lost radar control over mainland Ukraine and had limited radar coverage over their own troops in the southern operating zone (Kherson and Zaporojye).

Grubnik (Murz close friend and head of the RU Volunteers main supply network) Basically, what Murz wrote is understatement and not overstatement.

I haven't seen captured Leo yet. Instead of Bradly, they now show M113.

The same here. I have seen few POWs and the same one damaged Bradley everywhere. But there was screw up at Zenit position (the most difficult position to retreat from). And possibly at Koksohim but it is unverified.

We should not expect any more suicides since, as you mentioned, he was an idealist. Any other RU Nat in his position would swallow his pride (which is not a huge thing for Russians) and survive. More crucially, any other RU Nat would unlikely place himself in the same circumstances. Murz issued an ultimatum to the propagandist, who belonged to a powerfull (relatively speaking) propaganda network. No other RU Nat would do that. However, what we should expect is increased disfranchisement of RU Nats and their quiet exodus from the war. quote Another one And another one The crucial point is that the situation in an LDPR grouping is the best in terms of combat capability on average due to the presence of experienced LDPR commanders and specialists (such as Murz). Furthermore, there is an extensive and sophisticated RU Volunteer supply network there. Other directions are worse, that's why we should use Murz info as sort of best-case data. For example, Donetsk grouping recently pushed UKR out of Avdiivka. Kherson grouping, despite having supposedly one of the best RU commanders and not insignificant resources, still battles something like hundred UKR marines in the village. Zaporozhy grouping banging Robotne bulge. North Luhansk grouping is banging villages around Kupyansk. That's RU state for you. However, there is a rift between LDPR fighters and RU regulars. LDPR are very dissatisfied with RU state traditions. We knew about it before from GUR phone intercepts but now it has started to spill in public domain. Former LDPR fighter from Donetsks

Murz was a prominent member of the DPR and ultranationalist movement. Indeed, he has seen a lot of dead comrades. And not all of their deaths were glorious. For example, last year, his close buddy Nazi Bereg (the infamous guy with the UKR scull) was murdered by Wagnerites during an attempted robbery (Wagnerites were ambushing and robbing mobiks returning from frontlines). The murder was covered up by Wagnerite higher ups (rumors were that Prig himself). On the other hand, Murz, was a die-hard left-wing RU Nat. For him, it was a total war against Western capitalists who cruelly murders innocent Russians. He would never stop.

Nesmyan (civilian Girkin) about sanctions Economy - Russia is wining on this one

Meanwhile Ru soldier Guzenko aka 13th about Shoigy

Murz colleague reports that Murz is no more.

The report explains how RU army "manages" to remain in the fight thus far. P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood. And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.

Murz posted that he had a difficult talk with his military superior (brigade commander) and removed the post under direct order/threat. Next, he wrote something that may be considered a suicide note. But he did post something that looked like soldier's report. Looking into it.

Interesting, it appears that the RU Nats (not Army) are coming to the conclusion that using flak suits with partial protection in addition to regular armor is currently optimal method to reduce assault infantry casualties caused by drone attacks. The suite consists of Kevlar sections that cover a large part of the body's non armor protected surface. They tried flak blankets (ineffective), flak shields (too cumbersome for assault troops), and flak suits with complete body protection (too heavy and uncomfortable).

In other news - Shoigy reported to Putin that they captured Krynki and cleared out the bridgehead. UKR soldier reported that cannon fodder is attacking blindly the bridgehead.

Oh, looks like friendly comrades reached Murz - he deleted post with RU losses.

Unfortunately, I am unable to determine what fortifications UKR has there (if any), as reports from both sides are contradicting each other. Let's hope they do have something significant.

Murz posted comment of his colleague [EDIT] Funny story: Murz earlier declared that unless some RU propagandists (from the Guardians faction that badmouth him for several days) met his demands, he would publish the paper of the soldier (who attempted to submit it to the RU military prosecution office) today at 17:00. Guardians were ignoring him. It is 18:12, and he is quiet. I'm really worried for him.

New information is Putin statement that the pipe is actually in fully operational condition and can start working shortly. Interestingly Putin himself said the following: "Say [to us], "We want to receive." [You will] start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed." Now, in RU we do not normally say "start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed." That's two different time periods. Usually we say "start receiving it soon. A week is needed." Two different time periods in short span usually indicate that a speaker first disclosed something that he was not supposed to disclose. So, the pipe is in very good condition and capable of starting operation within a week or even just a day. That would be reasonable assessment before Putin statement. Now we know the fourth explosion caused at most only artificial damage, most likely no damage at all. The saboteurs were unlucky twice, and in both situations, the unluck was extremely advantageous to RU.

RDK just published post that they were working on freeing Navalny. They described a rather detailed plan. It looks reasonable for me. [EDIT] for example here webcam shots [EDIT 2] Looks like these guys are more powerful than we thought. A foreword by RU partisan group

As soon as I asked you whether you apply the same standards to RU public you ran away.

We are not in the court room. And we are not in court procedure. Repeat after me the following statements: The most important for Putin pipe was not blowen The same pipe is actually in fully working condition Do you deny the existence of these two facts? I never asked you who did it You declared you accept only solid evidence. Now to continue conversation with you I need solid evidence that you indeed accept only solid evidence. It is useless to have a conversation with a lying pro-Ru hypocrite You do know as the text is very clear - Screenshots when you ask the same thing from RU public (for example screenshots of you asking RU public to provide credible source for Putin statement that US did it). So, you do not make the same demands to RU public. Got it, thanks. I am at aftermath of Nord Stream explosions that benefited RU and Putin himself (that surviving pipe is his pet project). Where you are is not relevant to that.