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This should be considered as the conservative estimate. Most likely, the data is from a local report given to the chain of command. Such reports, however, feature distorted figures. A considerable number of KIA/Dead MIA will remain on the balance of units and be reported gradually over days, weeks, and months to smooth out the peak on the unit loss graph.

Agent Murz published a new post. The most interesting is the number of losses that is being discussed in RU Nats TG channels. Unreturnable 16 000 are KIA, MIA (mostly dead as well), and gravely wounded (had to be medically discharged). That gives as plus around 32,000 wounded and total losses around 48,000.

UKR are losing a lot less.

Here we go again.

I'm digging around, and here's a little snippet of what the RU improved - infantry cooperation with aerial bombardment. In later phases of Avdiivka battle, meat groups began assaulting more aggressively immediately after bombing, attempting to overrun the bombed area as quickly as possible. There are claims that it worked extremely effectively against weakened UKR units. Weakened UKR units tend to leave bombarded areas altogether, giving aggressive RU meat groups the perfect chance to overrun areas before stronger UKR units arrive for counterattack.

There aren't many zeks or penal battalions around. It is more often second-rate foot infantry formations are sent forward first. But once they are gone eventually more elite formations are being fed into meat grinder. But yes, they do try to keep first rate mech formations out of meat grinder as long as possible.

There is a phone intercept of L-DPR soldier that I personally determined to be genuine (voice, accent, and emotions appear authentic). Interesting points: From the attack, just 6 out of 25 returned. In the guy formation two regiments are almost completely gone (UKR 3rd TG channel mentioned that in recent fighting two RU two brigades were almost completely destroyed) Slavs [seems to be nickname of RU troops] do not allow to pick up dead bodies [of L-DPR soldiers]. TOS-1 is used to burn dead: "so that we don't walk on them" and to prevent rotting.

Pressure Cooker effect - it can withstand significant pressure much longer than you can normally expect but, in the end, it would catastrophically explode.

By the way, all RU proclamations about capture of Avdiivka are based on them installing flags near key location. Meanwhile local RU Nats are discussing that fighting is not over and it will take days to clear everything out.

Yes. Looks fighting has started.

In other news: This rate is devastating for RU economy as no RU business is profitable enought (unless it sell cocain).

According to RU government Navalny has died from dislodged blood clot.

This particular quote: Casualty ratios tend to equalize in urban areas is highly suspicious. It is an exact quote from a less well-known RU military reporter aka propagandist. The RU military reporter used the phrase to cheer up his viewers after admitting that prior fighting outside of urban areas resulted in a 1:10 loss ratio in favor of UKR. So, basically, Tatarigami simply repeats somebody else opinion without sufficient diligence. Now, could it be true? Well, it depends. "Residential areas" that RU used to breach UKR lines are not urban areas. They are all village-type areas. Look at the map They breached the village-type area. But they were significantly slowed down in semi-urban areas, so they preferred to advance on to an open area instead. They have not reached real urban area and they failed miserable attacking Koksohim. So, proper way would be - in terrain not favorable for infantry infiltration (be it open fields or any terrain sufficiently prepared and manned against infiltration for a prolonged period of time) RU tactics of meat assaults mostly fail. In terrain favorable for infantry infiltration, they mostly succeed given enough time, bodies and glide bombs. Since Avdiivka is Putin order the local RU command gets priority in receiving bodies and glide bombs. Hence the success after several months of miserable failures.

For the size of the RU grouping, I would take the December CIT estimate of 550 000 soldiers. This figure is fairly large since it includes up to 200 000 soldiers who are not badly wounded. They are not allowed to leave the warzone for recuperation or even for medical discharge and are forced to return to frontlines as soon as possible. Here's the story of a RU soldier who lost three fingers on his right hand and received a temporary unable to serve certificate. He is currently being brought back to the combat area.

That is the official meaning of the word. Total loser meaning is an old (soviet era) un-official meaning (the RU guy is old).

Mobilized are not allowed to return. They will serve until the end of SMO (or death). Mobiks you are talking about most likely were not mobiks at all - certain contract soldiers and zeks had loopholes that allowed them to return. That loophole was closed some time ago (mobiks never had it). Currently, RU is sending even injured and crippled people to the warzone

The kind of total loser who is unable to cope with life often due to various health conditions.

Regarding quality of RU infantry I have heard the same thing from my local contacts from different part of RU. From various UKR comments pre-war Strategic intent of UKR General Staff was to attrit the RU army to the point where it no longer functions as a cohesive modern fighting force. Interestingly, it was planned to be accomplished not via sheer manpower losses (since RU can replace cannon fodder), but by attrition of officers, specialists, modern equipment, and weaponry.

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence. Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all. What else does it have? Well, guys like this. This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it). Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants. What does this fellow have? Two DS30B rapid fire cannon Two Phalanx CIWS By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target Two .50 Cals It is already impressive but here is more. T45 usually have at least one helicopter The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops. Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs This is how LMM works (different mount) The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost. Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle.

Regarding RU losses at Avdiivka. Here is RU video of two RU soldiers checking RU position. At 03:16 one of them says: "From 4000 men, brigade, only 30% remained"

These are most likely end user (gas station) prices. They do not fluctuate that much.

[EDIT] Sorry, it is old report from January. I confused dates. Regarding Kstov Fuel Plant I wrote about earlier RU reports Anatoly Nesmian (RU civilian Girkin) comments

And now something funny. A couple of days ago we discussed where 3rd could set up the defenses and I made a quick sketch. I was looking at the videos of 3rd MRAP in action and noticed something familiar. You can see both damaged greenhouse on the left and transmission tower on the right. Here is the second video Again, you can see the transmission tower and at 04:00 damaged greenhouse. Let's look at map Some thoughts: Avtobaza is most likely lost but UKR control industrial area in front of Brevno There is no solid frontline. It is just a bunch of small infantry groups running around and UKR are using lone light vehicles with automatic weapons (from MRAP to Bradley) to keep pressure on them.

Deep State and Mashovets reports UKR marines are slowly expanding the bridgehead in Krynky

Below is a sketch from RU sources depicting existing supply roads to Avdiivka. However, UKR say that both roads are less than optimal and partially unsafe to use.