Seedorf81
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Posts
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Posts posted by Seedorf81
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Well, hopefully someone tells mr Putin (or his successor) that this is the perfect moment to get every Russian soldier out of Ukraine ASAP.
The excuse that he can use to get out of this for him unwinnable war?
"All our soldiers, who, of course, nearly were victorious against the Ukranians, are now needed to defend the motherland. I order them to come back immediately".
How unbelievable this may sound, with Putin's KGB/FSB past, I even think it is possible this Wagner-uprising could be something else than it appears to be.
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Quote needs to be above previous reply, ofcourse, sorry about that.
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Looks to me you're not the only one that is pondering about the whereabouts of those Ukrainian troops.
I am, despite all the explanations and all the Russian defense-tenacity and all the historic comparisons, a tiny bit surprised and perhaps even a little bit disappointed that there isn't more BIG OFFENSIVE news. But ..
WHAT IF..
What if the Ukrainians had their big push planned west of the Khakovka dam and, by sheer luck, through clever intel or stupidity, the Russians blew that just before the Ukrainian attack started?
Wouldn't that force the Ukrainians to redeploy a lot of troops and (partially) re-plan that offensive? And cause a delay that, at least for a part, could explain the absence of the "bigger things" that we probably are all waiting for?
(BTW: I don't know why, but I have a gut-feeling that in a week or two things will really start to move.
1 hour ago, Kinophile said: -
For the Dutchies..
Dutch version of Ukranian info-site, clear and consice.
For the drone-lovers..
From seconds 34 - 52 wheeled mine-laying (AT) drone.
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49 minutes ago, kevinkin said:
What a metaphor, both mosquitos and the RA suck.
Not all mosquitos suck.
https://www.baesystems.com/en/heritage/de-havilland-mosquito
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I don't want to get off topic, but I will say this is an increasingly evident problem in the US to anybody who is looking around. It was first flagged 20 years ago with the looming retirement bubble of airline pilots, long haul truckers, primary care doctors, nurses, and other "hands on" technical people with no signs of people interested in replacing them. The truck repair facility I spoke about used to have 8 mechanics on a Saturday shift. A few months they closed down on Saturdays because they could only regularly get 2 to show up. These jobs pay BIG money for the area.
I've told many people over the last few years that if I had to do my career all over again I would have gone into HVAC, welding, electrical, or some other critical trade that AI won't ever get rid of. Good paying job for life wherever you choose to call home. Something to be said about that.
Steve
P.S. I am in contact with friends in enough countries to know this is a serious problem pretty much everywhere.
According to tv-program I (partially) saw this week, China has the same problem, but even more so because of "societal pressure for status". Which means that in China being an ordinary labourer is considered even more honourless than in Western countries.
China seems to get a whole lot of troubled near-future issues: population, real-estate bubble, climate, food/harvest-troubles and this. History teaches us that some leadership-guys will turn to war if the **** threatens to really hit the domestic fan (Movie - Wag the dog -, 1997), which is not good news for Taiwan.
That Blinken-visit seems to me like a reasonable good move to warn China again not to do that.
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And another one..
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65873014
Does Russia still think these stunts will help them in any way?
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3 hours ago, Butschi said:
I wonder why they do that. They have to know their chances of survival are slim. I mean, apparently they are not just fanatics or else they wouldn't try to get away in the first place. So are they even more afraid of being captured? Is propaganda telling them the Ukrainians will shoot them or worse if they surrender? I remember there was a returned volunteer on German TV who said he'd witnessed instances of POWs being executed but that's just anecdotic evidence. So, assuming POWs are treated well, wouldn't it pay off to step up/renew the PR campaign we saw last year?
It may have to do with a lack of information.
We, all forum-members, have at least some knowledge of warfare, it's history and "the way it works". Also we have a decent understanding of modern day technology and weaponry, and probably a little understanding of international law, different rules of engagement and what not. We tend to take that for granted.
But from the beginning of this war it became apparent that a significant number of Russian soldiers came from the least developed parts of Russia. And a lot of those soldiers lived in circumstances that we, as spoiled Westerners, could describe as "archaic", "third world-ish", "primitive" or what have you, so their general knowledge-levels are probably less, or even much less, than ours.
And they joined an Army that isn't very well-known for it consideration for, or information-sharing with, their soldiers. So I suspect that their "situational awareness" is utterly abysmal. They don't know anything, except that maybe a senior soldier told them to stay in a trench and shoot the enemy.
When the Ukrainians attack them, they don't know how big the attacking force is. They haven't the faintest idea where the rest of the frontline runs, how to pull back or where to go, how to be flexible and maybe stabilize the situation by counterattacking. They cannot rely on friendlies to come to support them, they don't have the "band of brothers"-knowledge that your squadmates will help you, and they most certainly cannot trust any NCO's or officers (because they already left.)
So they stay until the very end, not because of exceptional bravery or believing in "The Cause", but because they haven't a clue what is going on.
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If I translate the recent Ukrainian losses to my CM Black Sea-experiences:
I am a below-average skilled player. But even if I had to play let's say Bill Hardenberger (undoubtedly one of the best, methodical and clever players I saw during AAR's), than I still would be able to kill a number of his Bradleys and Abrams.
Every army, even the most victorious, takes losses.
There is way too much focus on this initial Ukraine-"attack mishap", because - and yes that is very cruel - it is relatively insignificant in the big overall scheme.
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Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy.
What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts?
Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?
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3 minutes ago, Ultradave said:
The head of the IAEA said that the cooling water in the separate pond/lake, which is pumped from the reservoir, is sufficient for many months at least, since all the reactors are in cold shutdown. They have the ability to pump more water from the river until the river level gets TO ~2.7m. That's much more than dropping 2m, i.e., almost empty.
The media can stop their breathless reporting of imminent nuclear disaster, another Fukushima, etc. Might have been a good idea for the various media to actually ask some experts first, specifically the IAEA which has been keeping a very close eye on the power plant status since the beginning of the conflict.
Not sure how many people know the intricate workings of a nuclear plant but that pond water does not go in and out of the reactor. In 2 sentences, it's used for the secondary side of heat exchangers that cool the water that is in a closed circuit circulating through the core. It's "clean" water, and not exposed to radioactive contamination.
DaveNice to have a forummember that knows how to be cool at the right time.
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The Ukrainian Army-offensive-planners surely must have considered the possibility of this terrible damdestruction-scenario, and are (hopefully) not as surprised as we are..
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17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
(..)
And what the holy hell is going on w the raids into Russia? Seems these are causing a lot more trouble than I would've imagined. (..) The plot thickens.....
Have you ever tried to catch a very fit mouse in a big house with a lot of furniture and other stuff where it can hide under? It's ridiculously difficult. That is why the Russians struggle against the "invaders".
And it is almost as funny as "Tom and Jerry"..
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Hopefully these drones will also be used for something more positive than just killing people.
I for one would not be surprised at all if before 2024 we see the first medevac with a drone.
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Here we go again..
US politics. Source of endless controversy?
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Just now:
Dutch government wants to buy dozens of extra Leopard1-tanks for Ukraine.
Problem is that they wanna buy 'm from a Swiss company, and the Swiss government needs to approve the buy. The well-known "neutrality-stance" from the Swiss can cause delay or a "NO".
To be continued..
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This is pretty ridiculous.
South-Africa changes the law so not to follow the law?! (So they don't have to arrest Putin when he visits.)
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According to advisor of Mariupol mayor on Telegram:
"100 Russian soldiers killed, and about 400 wounded at ukranian strike on former medical center at Mariupol where 4 busses full of soldiers just had arrived. Also Russian communication-center destroyed."
No confirmation from other sources yet.
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Vasyl Maljoek, Head of SBU admits involvement in Crimean bridgestrike on october 8th 2022.
"Logistical enemy route we had to cut off", no further details. (DPA newsbureau)
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15 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
I cannot offer a native speakers' perspective, but to me it looks more like a philosophical than language point. For example, in legal usage if event X increases the probability of event Y, and in a particular case event Y occurred after event X had occurred, then the event X is considered to have caused the event Y. At least for some legal situations. So both the example you described using the word "lead to" and the one you described with the word "cause" could be understood as causation - in principle, and not because of the words used.
Oh my God, from now on I need to worry not only about my language-deficiencies, but about the philosophical and legal ones also!
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1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Sorry, I saw the word "lead to" and thought it implied a cause and effect relationship. I will read deeper into your chicken and egg posts.
Also again, no worries, mate.
Maybe it is because I am a non-native English speaker and am I using the language in an inappropriate way?
I thought there's a difference between "Christmas can lead to an increase in traffic accidents", versus "Christmas causes traffic accidents." The first quote can be true, because at Christmas more people use more alcohol and therefore more drunk drivers on the roads, but the second quote can never be true as far as I understand it.
I know this has nothing to do with Ukraine, but it seems language-troubles do create misunderstandings now and then.
So real Americans and British and Canadians and Australians (etc), please be considerate with the rest of us, the lingo-strugglers.
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2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
That an often quoted view, but mistaken, as it gets the causation wrong. Armament races usually occur in the course of great power rivalries, and great power rivalries often lead to great power wars. Thus, armament races and great power wars are not in causal relation to each other, but they are both co-effects of great power rivalries (albeit occuring asynchronically)
Again, I did not say "cause". See my "chicken and egg" followup-post.
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Maybe a misunderstanding from my side, but I thought you disagreed with my post on armament-races. Mainly because you used the phrase "not aimed directly at you", and the fact that you described a big difference in China-US armament build-up and China's agressive stance.
It seemed to me that you wanted to state that if one party arms up big time, and the other doesn't that it also (thereby countering my earlier statement) will lead to war. I.e. China invading Taiwan.
Which may or may not happen, but didn't happen yet, so I mentioned that.
If I misunderstood your argument, I apologize.
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Zelensky advisor Michaelja Podoljak on counter-offensive expectations.
Real info or cloak and dagger-stuff?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Two things seemed utterly clear to me that are not happening in Russia right now:
1: When trying to take over power through a coup/mutiny/civil uprising, always be sure to kill the current leader. AND DO NOT HESITATE!!
2: If you have an uprising, insurrection or mutiny on your hands, immediately and mercilessly try get rid of it with everything you have at your disposal. AND DO NOT HESITATE!!
Neither is happening, and that is the biggest mystery to me.