Seedorf81
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Posts
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Posts posted by Seedorf81
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27 minutes ago, billbindc said:
It is an astonishingly strong conceit that autocracies are somehow better at war than more liberal states. Even looking at *this* war...Russia's autocracy has screwed up in every conceivable way, taken grossly disproportionate losses and cannot regain its earlier standing *even if it prevails* in Ukraine. It has inflicted on itself a strategic, economic and demographic disaster.
Democracy's reluctance and hesitation to commit to war, even if it seems like cowardice or weakness, could be it's strongest value.
One who knows his real power and strength, should be careful when to use it. IF democracies decide to go to war, their potential is huge, because freedom of thought creates much more creativity, productivity and willingness to sacrifice, than the initial "weakness" seems to indicate.
A bit like the sleeping tiger that doesn't want to wake up, and lets the dumb human poke him. And poke him again. And again. And then the tiger kills the annoying man.
Even with current USA struggling, with Western Europe's crises, and the growing BRICS, Iran and all, opposition to democracy, I think that "The West" is like that sleeping tiger.
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2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
It makes sense that western politicians are playing a careful balancing act - support Ukraine but don't go too nuts because the economy is pretty stressed right now. One way to deal with this is to show the tens of thousands of rounds we are sending Ukraine but low-balling the price tag to avoid sticker shock. So the prices listed are likely wholesale costs from 20 years ago when these shells were made - nicely avoiding military inflation etc. Governments play these games all the time.
"VEO" - Violent extremist organization. A new broad term we use to encompass terrorism but also beyond that. Some groups are VEOs but not terrorists (legally) - but every terrorist is a VEO. In Afghanistan, the Taliban were a VEO but not legally a terror organization. AQ was a terror organization and VEO. We had two completely different operations to deal with them.
Thank you! That's why I like this thread.
Not just an answer, but a very good explanation, too.
I like to learn new things, and today I did learn new stuff.
Nice!
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The Capt and Beleg85 thank you for your clarifying posts.
The Capt:
I never suspected the "low balling" and "dumping" of the ammo at a much lower price. Makes sense, and at the same time it doesn't.
One question: you wrote "(..)one big 20 year VEO bug hunt", but even my good friend Urban Dictionary couldn't come up with a good explaination for VEO. Could you, or anyone, explain what VEO means in this context, please?
Beleg85:
Well spotted that the forementioned article missed the 155 - 152 mm difference. I assume the writers meant 152 mm calibre for the 20.000 Russian shells.
Both your posts enhance my understanding (and awe, and some disbelief)of the humongous amounts of money that are related to war. It also shows me that there are much more people that make much more money from investing in war, and war-related enterprises, than I realised. Why would they choose peace??
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1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:
Decades ago I was tought that if you start a new company, or make a new product, the first profit-percentage that you could/should use was 25%. Later on, when production-numbers and costs became more clearly, one could adapt that percentage if needed or wanted.
I think this 25% is still a good guess for the 155 mm shells, so 825 euro profit. (Could be way off, of course.)
Sad "little" (not if you realize the huge amounts of money involved) extra handicap for the Ukrainians.. profit made on donated foreign-supplied ammo does not flow back into the Ukrainian economy, but the profit made on the Russian shells stays, except for those from North-Korea, mostly in Russia.
I made a basic error
, 25% isn't from total price, but price before profit.
In stead of 825 euro from 3300, of course it should be 660 euro from 2640 before profit.
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5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I wonder how much of the cost is profit. If a single standard shell is 3300 euro, how much of that cost is actually for the steel, the explosives, the fuse, and the physical labour?
Of course a Javelin launcher is much more high tech than a shell, but still. 100,000 dollars. That's like the cost of a brand new Tesla, which is also full of technology.
Decades ago I was tought that if you start a new company, or make a new product, the first profit-percentage that you could/should use was 25%. Later on, when production-numbers and costs became more clearly, one could adapt that percentage if needed or wanted.
I think this 25% is still a good guess for the 155 mm shells, so 825 euro profit. (Could be way off, of course.)
Sad "little" (not if you realize the huge amounts of money involved) extra handicap for the Ukrainians.. profit made on donated foreign-supplied ammo does not flow back into the Ukrainian economy, but the profit made on the Russian shells stays, except for those from North-Korea, mostly in Russia.
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This short article calculated that an average "normal' 155 mm artillery round costs about 3300 Euro's. (3600 $)
And on average Ukraine fires about 4000 - 7000 of these per DAY(!) and the Russians about 20.000 per DAY(!). And that is just 155 mm shells.
(And one Excalibur-round costs about 103.000 Euro's (110.000 $).
Nothing new for most of our Forummembers, I reckon, but I did some math in order to have a better look at the ridiculous magnitude of the cost of war. (I am one of those simpletons that frequently asks himself if it wouldn't be much better if we used war-money for let's say climate-control.)
So.. in order to be sure not to exaggerate I use an average total number of 5.000 shells per day from the Ukrainians and 15.000 rounds from the Russians. That's 20.000 155mm rounds fired EVERY day, but let's say 300 days usage in stead of 365 in a year.
One round is 3300 euro's x 20.000 = 66.000.000 euro's per day.
66.000.000 x 300 days =19.800.000.000 euro's per year. (Had to check and double-check, because it blew my mind, couldn't believe it.) 1/4 is for Ukraine to pay, 3/4 for Russia.
But this is only the cost of 155 mm artillery-shells.
Not one 155mm gun, not one riflebullet, not one gallon of gas, not one drone, not one uniform, not one vehicle, not one bandage and well, you get the drift. I knew that a "cheap" missile is 20.000 euro's, that one Javelinlauncher costs more than 100.000 dollars and so on and so forth, but I never understood the bigger picture until this little 155mm round calculation. The cost of war is incomprehensible.
Now I understand the endless asking, pleading, bargaining and begging for support from Zelensky. He must.
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A little bit of somewhat positive news:
230 Ukrainian prisoners of war coming home, in exchange for 248 Russians.
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Ninja'd by letter from Prague..
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15 minutes ago, Astrophel said:
Dumb questions for you military experts:
1) It appears from my own rumour mill that there is a lot of money washing around to buy msm journalists and influencers. None coming my way so far. Anybody have the same inputs?
2) And now a really stupid question. I had a christmas dinner with a marine who is just back from parachute training in Arizona - because the weather is optimal for training apparently. I thought "why not parachute over the mines"??. I said it was a stupid question but I would love to know the answer?
On question number two:
Any plane that wants to drop paratroopers gets blown out of the sky before they even reach dropzones.
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Dutch ministry of defence:
18 f-16's will be delivered to Ukraine as soon as export-permits, and logistical situation in Ukraine for their use, are dealt with.
More are likely to follow.
(Zelesky confirmed the deal after call with Dutch prime-minister.)
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2 hours ago, Yet said:
if heat and sound are no issue, might as well add hoovercrofts in the equation with jetpacks.
And Ospreys!
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37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Oh ya. Noisy too. So smoke cover, night, UAS forward suppression, deception/decoys, EW and really short hops - maybe 1-2kms tops. This is an op on a river crossing complexity, even if one could get the 500 or so jet packs in the first place. I would see this as a UGV/UAS follow up to try and either create a bridgehead or simply scare the crap out of the RA and make them react.
But at this point the UA CHOD is talking plasma torches cutting tunnels…so we are at the wild idea point.
Except for a few magazines I didn't see storage-space. But for every attack you need at least some food and water and well, basic engineering-equipment (wire-cutter, shovel, etc), medical stuff, grenades, GPS, radio's, etc. And these days going without drones is almost a no no. And a machinegun would be nice, too, I reckon.
If these jetpacks can carry extra weight only the place to put supplies is a problem, but if a single soldier with rifle reaches the maximum loadcapacity, than every serious attack is going to be difficult, I imagine.
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18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I have not heard this competition story either. It is totally believable. A bunch of Alpha Males trying to impress important people? What could possibly go wrong.
(..)
This is the most plausible account I have heard since the tragedy happened. Speculation that the "separatists" planned on shooting down MH-17 on purpose do not make any sense and there is no evidence to support it.
With Russia, if the choice of story is between devious plot and incompetence, the safer bet is incompetence.
Steve
Also according to Salikov: the real purpose for wanting to shoot down a plane was to make Girkin more popular and to get more funding.
There's a bit more info on Salikov. He's 60 years old, and got help by his "very difficult" escape out of Russia from human rights activist Vladimir Osechskin.
Osechskin stated that most of colonel Salikov's statements have been verified, even up to the point that as a result of those statements places of executions, and graves of murdered Ukrainian civilians and POW's, have been found.
So he seems legit, and Ukrainian lawyers are already having conversations with him.
Order from Putin to try and kill Salikov must have been issued already, I suspect..
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Update on Wagnercolonel Salikov:
He was in Donetsk-region when MH-17was shot down. He says that some form of competition was going on between the Wagner-group and the separatists.
A few weeks before the downing of the MH-17, the Wagnergroup had shot down a Ukrainian army-plane in Luhansk-region and they got a lot of credit for that.
So, according to Salikov, the separatists decided that they had to shoot down a Ukrainian plane too, but through mistakes/stupidity they shot down MH-17.
(I never heard of this competition-story, so could be that he 's a credible source.)
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Dutch newsprogramme yesterday: (Link in next "update"-post.) My summary/translation, so mistakes on me.
Former Wagnercolonel Igor Salikov arrived in the Netherlands. He wants to testify at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.
Served in Russian army, later in Wagnergroup. Fought in different African countries as well as in Syria. Also "involved" in Russian actions against Ukraine, 2014 and 2022.
Witnessed many crimes and stated (wrote a deposition for the ICC) where the orders came from. Straight from Russian ministry of defense and sometimes directly from the office of Vladimir Putin. Also testifies that GROe and FSB were heaviliy involved in illegal operations.
Salikov was involved in Ukraine since 2014 and stated that part of his job was to support the separatists. In Donetsk the referendum was "a forgery", that only succeeded because of "bribery, blackmail and fraud". He also mentions the blatant lies that soldiers were told before the 2014 invasion in Ukraine/Crimea.
Furthermore:
- killing/murdering of civilians,
- laying mines on purpose in civilian area's (Many children dead because of that.),
- Torture and killing of prisoners of war,
and, most important I think, he witnessed the abduction of the Ukrainian children in februari 2022. "Convoys of FSB cars and vans, filled with children." (According to Yale-universiy about 6000 children were abducted.)
Reason for his defection seems to be that he was ordered to execute civilians, but refused to do that. Was about to be court-marshalled for that, but managed to flee Russia. "Lost faith in Russian cause".
Of course, credibility, and possible own warcrimes, from this former colonel need to be investigated. His account of the FSB abduction of children was corroborated by other witnesses, it seems.
Follow-up: The importance of his testimony lies in him possibly being an "insider witness" (ICC phrase) with knowledge of "The chain of Command".
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Reuters:
Ukrainian General (Brigadier, according to Reuters) Tarnavsky says in interview that there is a significant shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian frontline troops, and that some operations have been scaled down because of lack of foreign support.
Ammo-shortage predominantly with post-soviet period shells. "It is a real big problem", he stated. The Ukrainians have to redistribute the ammo they still have, and adapt offensive plans.
According to Tarnavsky, who led the southern counter-offensive that led to the liberation of Cherson and who played an important role during fighting around Zaporizja, the Russians also suffer from post-soviet ammo shortages.
But he still expects that (local??)victories can be achieved and stated that Ukrainian reserves are being prepared for further large actions.
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It seems to me that most people forget how humanly normal it is for the Ukrainians to be war-weary and somber, and to even question a positive outcome. But it is almost certainly TEMPORARY!
It is not only the longevity of the war, and the corresponding fear and stress that goes along with it, that creates this grim atmosphere. In my experience hope that doesn't get materialized tends to weigh heavier on most people's morale, than physical pain, fear, disappointment and other adversities.
And in this war the average hope before the summer offensive was very high, perhaps - in retrospect of course, unrealisticly high. The unexpected defeat of the Russian invasion, the sinking of the Moskva and the further humiliation of the Black Sea Fleet, the Wagner-uprising, the endless amount of video's and reports of exploding Russian vehicles and dead and dying Russian soldiers, and the large number of countries that gave material and/or financial support (Which in hindsight gave a false impression of the usefull amount of support. Ten countries donating 10 -20 tanks each sounds nice, but creates unrealistic hope.), all contributed to an understandable belief in succes.
In my opinion a sudden realisation that thing aren't nearly as rosy as expected, weighs people down. Mostly because rational thinking cannot cope very well with accepting the fact that our expectations were too high.
It just takes time. Whether the situation on the frontline stays as it is, or even when there are going to be more setbacks for the Ukrainians, this current "depression" will subside. The Ukrainian tenacity and unwielding fighting spirit just have a little understandable setback.
And to parafrase Schwarzenegger's famous quote: "They will be back".
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Absolutely. I don't expect to change his mind, but I do mean to demonstrate to the rest that we do not shut people down because they have a point of view that is contrarian. However, at some point that becomes clear and the distraction factor becomes more of a concern. I've not run out of patience yet.
Steve
Democracy is not perfect, not great. Recent years have shown that even the greatest democracies have difficulties being democratic.
But I believe that the way in which Steve(Battlefront.com) gives room to "antagonistic" and /or "Kettlerian" or very annoying (Me, for instance, when a few years back I pushed the limit of decency with my whining about the Schwimmwagen) forumposters, may be representive for the real difference between democracy and pretty much any other political system.
Being tolerant (WITHOUT GETTING WOKE, btw) towards people who have different opinions, and/or people who say things we'd rather not hear at all, is one of the best ways to get a "reasonable" society. Not perfect, not great, but still a society with freedom of speech, little to no cruel oppression, equal justice for most, and opportunities for most people.
It is fair to say that Steve is in a position of power, as it were. He can ban everyone he wants, anytime it pleases him.
But he gave Kettlerians, neo-nazi's, dumb-asses and hardcore commies, and the rest, always the benefit of the doubt. He usually tried to reason, to warn and to explain, even when he must have felt annoyance or even anger.
I don't always agree with Steve's views ( Russian collapse seemed always unlikely to me, because these Russians have a survival-tenacity that is like having chewing gum stuck in your hair), but to me he is a real democrat (Not a US-politics democrat) and I appreciate that.
Thank you, Steve.
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Deleted.
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4 hours ago, Joe982 said:
Do Russian soldiers actually get any training in anything useful? At a training facilty ????
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Well, they did build a good outdoor-fire. Not everyone knows how to do that, these days..
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Just to show how stunningly horrible the numbers of deaths in Israel-Gaza conflict are, I calculated what those numbers would be for the USA with their 340 million population. Israel has 9 million, Gaza 2 million.
7 october Hamas-attack killed 1200 Israeli's, so that would be 45.300 Americans. (FIFTEEN times all deaths from 9/11/2001).
Gaza Palestinian deaths so far 12.000, so that would be (340:2x12.000=) 2.040.000 American dead.
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"Ukraine will block any gas-transport from Russia to EU from 2025 on."
Olexij Tsjerniskov, head of Naftogaz, Ukrainian State Energy Company
According to Dutch National news site.
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9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
Agreed. First and foremost this is a humanitarian disaster, I got send a video of aftermath but didn't want to watch it.
I've seen nasty things in my life, and I consider myself to be as "neutral" as one possibly can be. But the live-footage of the very young kids with horrific wounds impacted even my "neutrality". And so I expect that the average "Arab/Muslim"-viewer gets infuriated beyond limits. And even if there were solid proof that the deaths were a direct result from a Hamas-rocket launch gone wrong, they blame the Israeli's anyway.
Both parties will show their real hate, compromises are gone.
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12 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
That video is said to be an old video, although I agree that it is best to reserve judgement for a bit.
Yeah, you're right. Neither side is very honest.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Maybe a painful question, but why do democracies have to prevent "unnecessary" (a very debatable term, as I see it. Any death can be deemed unneccessary, if one tries hard enough) deaths? Is there an obligation, other than morality?
And how quick will some people accuse those democracies of being "colonialists", or "meddling in other people's local/national affairs" or "trying to control the world"?
And your question: "But does that help the people who are getting killed right now?" is in fact applicable for every country in history and for every human that was getting killed in any conflict. You expect democracies to save the whole world? But when democracies tried that, in RETROSPECT with wrong reasons, they were, sometimes rightly so, condemned for doing so. Eisenhower came up with the Domino-theory, with the intent to help the world from being overrun by Communism and boy oh boy, how did that work out?!
The democracies have learned some serious lessons about intervening, not the least the recent events in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And a cruel reality perhaps, but what you call "unneccesary deaths" are also happening in Sudan, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, Congo, Somalia, Gaza and the rest, but they seem less important than the Ukranian deaths?
This was not your best post, I think.