kevinkin

Ukraine has no choice. The point is that the west does. If the UA relies on arty and that is in short supply, the west has to innovate to try to show the public (voters) that the offensive is working and the UA soldier is not being held out to dry. You and I understand how difficult their task is. But the public's attention is short and they generally want results now. Every few weeks there is another aid package. It's never a good idea to normalize war especially a horrific one. It can be self defeating. 

Both. But the latter should be more efficacious than a show of force. The west has almost met its geostrategic goals with NATO expanding and Russia is in disarray economically and socially. So the west appears to be in this thing not to lose rather than for Ukraine to win back its borders. I am not sure who they would like to break first - Russia or Ukraine? Either way that gets the west to negotiations which is their true aim anyway. But in the meantime the Ukraine is being led on by dribs and drabs of assistance for fear of actually pissing Putin off. So the heroes in Ukraine are fighting for the cowards in the west's capitols. We can't let nuclear blackmail stand. Or if we can't stomach that, we shouldn't stand by and let its use destroy a smaller country through conventional attrition.  

Ukraine has no choice. The point is that the west does. If the UA relies on arty and that is in short supply, the west has to innovate to try to show the public (voters) that the offensive is working and the UA soldier is not being held out to dry. You and I understand how difficult their task is. But the public's attention is short and they generally want results now. Every few weeks there is another aid package. It's never a good idea to normalize war especially a horrific one. It can be self defeating. 

I am almost getting tired reading about this:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/ukraine-critical-ammo-shortage-us-nato-grapple/index.html
But:
Wallace said that NATO is realizing the importance of not allowing certain crucial supply chains to fall dormant.
“All of us have had to struggle stimulating our supply chains, some of which went to sleep,” he told CNN. He added that “as an alliance, we can’t just take for granted” the idea that another country will step in to fill the gap, like the US did with cluster munitions.
“What is clear is that we don’t have in our inventories at the moment the necessary munitions to shut down airfields and break through lines, like we might have done in the old days,” Wallace said. “If you can’t use cluster munitions, because we’ve all quite rightly signed this treaty [banning them], you need to innovate and come up with something else.”
Come on now. Where did the inventories go? Live fire exercises? Or where they put down for old age? 
 

Interesting that a detailed first person account does not go further into the geostrategic ramifications of "bloody attritional fighting for months." For example, is it sustainable? Which side benefits. What would it take for the west to go all in to prevent said months long attritional fighting? Waiting for a sudden collapse while feeding reserves into the fight lacks a lot of imagination on NATO's part if they really want to kick Russia out of Ukraine soon. If they want this to be a forever war (Korea/Middle east) then fess up.   

Not to harm anyone to clarify. 

How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic among all those stuck on the highway. Bring to the war home to the elite beach goers. 

How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic among all those stuck on the highway. Bring to the war home to the elite beach goers. 

https://news.yahoo.com/crimea-bridge-key-russian-supply-050455702.html
Russia has extended the Black Sea deal three times in the past year, despite repeated threats to quit. It suspended participation after an attack on its fleet by seaborne Ukrainian drones in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports going without Moscow.
Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the main agribusiness organization in Ukraine, said seaborne exports might proceed again without Russian agreement.
"If there will be safety guarantees from our partners, then why not conduct the grain initiative without Russia's participation?" he told Reuters.
Any such resumption of shipments without Russia's blessing would probably depend on insurers. Industry sources told Reuters they were studying whether to freeze their coverage.
"The (key) question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source said.
Mining would not be a step Putin (or whomever) would take. Would not be worth the PR or any reaction from NATO to save the starving. 

Those are good examples. Yet, I think tensions would have to cool off before NATO would accept a nation involved in a hot war. That might take years even if the UA reclaims everything. However, when an "opening" appears, NATO should grab it. 

Hearing some commentators are now forwarding that as long as Putin maintains a defensible presence in Ukraine, NATO is off the table. I suppose that means the recently annexed regions. But would that also hold true for Crimea? Putin is trying for a pyric victory the sell to his public -> see we held NATO at bay against all odds. 

A People's cruise missile; a flying Volkswagen. Now we just have get Putin in front of the Peoples Court. If the thing has a battlefield benefit, maybe they can farm production out. I remember back in the early 90's the radio controlled a/c group I belonged to was thinking off the cuff about placing charges on larger model and if they could be used a terror weapons. Little did we know how things would evolve. 
 

Member of the Ukrainian Parliament is reporting and it was picked up by the Post:
Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov died Monday when a barrage of cruise missiles obliterated the Dune Hotel in Berdiansk in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian military commanders had been quartered.
“The British ‘Storm Shadow’ came to visit accurately,” he commented, referring to the long-range cruise missiles jointly developed by the UK and France that were supplied to Ukraine in May.

A People's cruise missile; a flying Volkswagen. Now we just have get Putin in front of the Peoples Court. If the thing has a battlefield benefit, maybe they can farm production out. I remember back in the early 90's the radio controlled a/c group I belonged to was thinking off the cuff about placing charges on larger model and if they could be used a terror weapons. Little did we know how things would evolve. 
 

A People's cruise missile; a flying Volkswagen. Now we just have get Putin in front of the Peoples Court. If the thing has a battlefield benefit, maybe they can farm production out. I remember back in the early 90's the radio controlled a/c group I belonged to was thinking off the cuff about placing charges on larger model and if they could be used a terror weapons. Little did we know how things would evolve. 
 

Let's not forget that those 31 NATO nations - combined with a less than stellar RA - still resulted in over 100K Ukrainian causalities and a wreaked infrastructure . The RA is still capable of fighting a less than stellar defensive war trading lives with a smaller country hiding behind the ever present nuclear blackmail. That black mail has been more effective than dozens of S-400 battalions in keeping the skies over Ukraine clear of NATO aircraft. Time for that to end starting with a no-fly zone over Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. With the unpredictable consequences of US election cycle starting in January, time is of the essence. Trading lives, even at a favorable rate for Ukraine, won't be fast enough I fear and a risky strategy that surrenders any initiative. 

Let's not forget that those 31 NATO nations - combined with a less than stellar RA - still resulted in over 100K Ukrainian causalities and a wreaked infrastructure . The RA is still capable of fighting a less than stellar defensive war trading lives with a smaller country hiding behind the ever present nuclear blackmail. That black mail has been more effective than dozens of S-400 battalions in keeping the skies over Ukraine clear of NATO aircraft. Time for that to end starting with a no-fly zone over Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. With the unpredictable consequences of US election cycle starting in January, time is of the essence. Trading lives, even at a favorable rate for Ukraine, won't be fast enough I fear and a risky strategy that surrenders any initiative. 

Let's not forget that those 31 NATO nations - combined with a less than stellar RA - still resulted in over 100K Ukrainian causalities and a wreaked infrastructure . The RA is still capable of fighting a less than stellar defensive war trading lives with a smaller country hiding behind the ever present nuclear blackmail. That black mail has been more effective than dozens of S-400 battalions in keeping the skies over Ukraine clear of NATO aircraft. Time for that to end starting with a no-fly zone over Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. With the unpredictable consequences of US election cycle starting in January, time is of the essence. Trading lives, even at a favorable rate for Ukraine, won't be fast enough I fear and a risky strategy that surrenders any initiative. 

This is the view from Western Europe. 
For most people in the Baltics and Central Europe it is absolutely clear, that the Ukraine is fighting this war on our behalf. Every Russian soldier killed by the Ukrainians is someone our soldiers will not have to shoot at. I have a son of military age and another one who will be in a couple of years, so as callous as it sounds, I would gladly have the Ukrainians fight that fight for our money.
For what it is worth, I do not exactly understand why countries in Europe further to the West are not worried more. We are the next border after Ukraine, but the Netherlands are not exactly on the far side of the Moon either. 

Zelensky is not happy:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/
I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

Posted from 1945 a bunches of pages back and to your point:
Experience from 1991, but it rings true today:
Further, we were fully staffed by privates and crewmen who had trained for over a year on their combat vehicles, crews that were highly proficient in their individual tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and then additional training at the platoon, company, battalion, and finally regimental (brigade) levels. Even more critically: our leaders at each level – platoon through brigade – had experience commensurate for their positions – one to two years for platoon leaders, five years for a company commander, 12 to 15 years for a battalion commander, and 22 years for the regimental commander.
Ukraine has none of these components.
For example, one of the elite Ukrainian brigades, the 47th Mechanized Brigade, was commanded by an officer – 28-year-old Col. Oleksandr Sak – with about as much experience as a seasoned lieutenant in an American tank brigade. Virtually all of the Ukrainian offensive brigades have been formed and trained in mere months, with elemental training from NATO countries, given a hodgepodge of modern Western and old Soviet equipment, with grossly insufficient time to form cohesive units, much less coordinated and equipped combined arms formations.
A 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” 
Without significant NATO assistance, it's getting cruel to ask the UA to do what is nearly impossible on the west's behalf. If the west thinks Ukraine already won the war and Russian lost in geostrategic terms, let's move Putin over to our way of thinking. And fast.  

Zelensky is not happy:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/
I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

Zelensky is not happy:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/
I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

Without NATO airpower, it's difficult to find a assertive way forward into the operational depth of the Russian defense. Penny packets of AFVs are just replacements. Ammo shipments are just replacements. The UA would have to stop offensive ops now and husband those donations for a later date. But that is unacceptable from a pubic image POV. It's a horrible dilemma. Putin is loving this. If Ukraine has something unconventional and devious up it's sleeve, I can't wait.  

Without NATO airpower, it's difficult to find a assertive way forward into the operational depth of the Russian defense. Penny packets of AFVs are just replacements. Ammo shipments are just replacements. The UA would have to stop offensive ops now and husband those donations for a later date. But that is unacceptable from a pubic image POV. It's a horrible dilemma. Putin is loving this. If Ukraine has something unconventional and devious up it's sleeve, I can't wait.