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Crash site of IL-76, which fell down near Ivanovo. Some Russian TGs claimed that unknown passengers, who were onboard, were crewmen of A-50. Ivanovo-Severnyi airfield is a base of 610th Center of combat usage and flight personnel retrain, having in own composition IL-76 and A-50 planes, some of which are strored. If this is true, IL-76 crash can be a diveriosion to eliminate A-50 pilots and operators, which probably flew to bring into exploitation A-50, repaired from the storage to substitute previous losses
Reportedly (but not verified) in result of drone strikes on Beriyev aviation plant in Taganrog two A-50 (one of them - that which suffered from small drone attack in Belarus), staying under repar in hangar got additional damages and have taken out for unknown time.

Talking about sustainability and the importance of Western support, it is pretty clear that while Russia also spends an increasing percentage of its GDP, Ukraine is really in a bad spot economically. 6% is a lot but manageable, 20% isn't, at least not for too long.
And I think the situation is a bit worse than the graphic suggests. It appears like Ukrainian percentage GDP is high and volatile but not constantly going up. But that's assuming the GDP is growing by over 7% this year. They are apparently using the statista numbers (or have the same source) which look to me like a simple linear extrapolation from the years 2014-2023 (excluding 2021 as an outlier). And that sounds very optimistic to me.

This day was interesting not because of free-Russia troops crossed Russian border, but also huge simultainous drone attack on nine Russian oblasts. Obviously these were chains of one operation on eve of "Putin elections".
Most significant were strikes on oil storage in Oryol - at least one fuel tank was set on fire...
... And attack on "Lukoil" company oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhniy Novgorod oblast in 800 km NE from closest point of UKR border. The drone precisely hit and set on fire the fractioning column, maintaning 53% of refinery output. This refinery also supplies about 30 % of gasoline in Moscow oblast.
 
UKR drones and MLRS again were launched on Belgorod
Reporteldy a drone with small warhead hit city administration building (2 employees were lightly wounded)

 

Wot Border Guards doin'? 
 

Agreed that NATO can choose not to export, but that would badly damage their reputation and I would be surprised to see many countries following France's example. I guess the point is that NATO is not at war but Russia is, so NATO might have more potential but not use it. 
Also both sides are importing shells from 3rd countries (often under the table), and both sides use various calibres. 
In other words it is really complicated and I don't think counting production numbers alone is a very good proxy for how many shells will be fired by both sides this year. Thankfully the NATO numbers are finally going up at a faster rate than Russia's so hopefully Ukraine will be at least stable soon with regard to the artillery balance. 

Golfcars also are used by Russians on Avdiivka direction
Situation here still very hard - despite we stabilized situation and our artillery likely got French shells, so reportedly our arty is working tough again, Russians continue own zomby-atatcks, so situation still dynamic and change often. 
Also some words about shells - servicemen tell in twitter they have enough mortar shells, but despite our arty increased own activity, the shells amount still not so proper as before shells shortage. If recently a battery in avarage fired 60-70 ammo for a day, now they can fire about 30 and during final phase of Avdiivka battle this number could be less 10.   
Just for nice picture - FPV has strruck Russian BMP and turned it out in hellish fireball. Likely it hit fuel tanks
 

Some summry for several days in Robotyne - Verbove pocket. 
Russians stopped intensive assaults, instead this moved here more "Shtrorm -Z/ -V" units, manned with convicts. They send them mostly on foot by small groups, but most of them are successfully eliminated on approaches. 
Sometime Russians throw to probes small armored groups, but they had the same fate - FPV drones and mortars/artillery work on them.
National Guard "Omega" special forces work at two Russian armor vehicles and infantry with AT-4 and AGL in vicinity of Robotyne
Russians in mass became to use here many ATVs - own domestic AM1, Chineese "Desertcross" and donated civilians. Despite some of UKR militaries jokingly called these vehicles GFV (Golfcar Fighting Vehicle), a serviceman from Robotyne in own tweet say this is veryu hard target - ATVs are very fast and maneuver - artillery and mortars can't target them, even for MGs and FPVs they are hard targets to aim. ATVs even not always blow up by mines, so this guy told UKR forces lost two small positions, because Russians rapidly came close on ATVs and bursted in the trenches. 
Though this ATV or small jeep wa not so lucky and blew up on mine
 
Also reportedly Russian deployed some powerful EW system near Robotyne, which when turns on blocks the video channel of FPV drones. 

Mother Of All Bowel movements 
 

Quoting this note only because it's the most recent one to touch on the naval warfare discussion and I wanted to add some thoughts to that.
On ideas for near-term development of Ukraine's naval drones:
The aim is to destroy the enemy's ability to wage war on the sea.  That will almost always mean that your target is the enemy ship, not the crew.  At the moment exposed enemy crew members are not effective at preventing USV attacks.  If you can get close to a ship you are therefore much better off pressing home a direct attack on said ship than you are trying to blow grapeshot into the face of some rube balancing an MG on the railings.  This will remain the case until exposed crewmembers become a significant threat to your attempts to approach the ship (unlikely to ever happen imo) or until you are able to kill so many crew, so efficiently as to make it a better way of neutralising the ship than sinking it (ditto). Modern warships are already pretty focussed on mitigating the dangers presented by enemy warships, ASMs and torpedoes - those are obviously well-established as primary threats.  To my mind then there is not much to be gained in terms of lethality by having USVs try to replicate those types of attack.  The Ukrainians' current success is being achieved by threading the eye of the needle between their drones not being torpedoes, ASMs or warships but having features of all three:  They are operator-guided and can see their targets from long distances like a warship or a missile and they cause damage on the waterline like various torpedoes or missiles can.  The fact they attack on the surface also means they are too low down for conventional anti-ASM defences to effectively target but they are too small and agile for anti-ship weaponry to hit reliably, either. Given the above, I think it's only a matter of time before this capacility gap slams shut and effective countermeasures to the current generation of Sea Baby-type drones are popularised (although whether the Russians will be the ones to do so seems bafflingly uncertain).  I've mentioned previously that I do think deployable netting/fencing could be an interim solution which could completely neutralise the current threat or at least significantly increase the number of successful attacks required to damage or sink a vessel. Longer term, I agree that naval drones will become platforms for torpedo-type weapons (correctly noted already as basically the best way to sink something otherwise designed to float).  Do we think future navies may start by looking to populate the oceans perhaps even exclusively with torpedo-toting, submersible drones?  Presumably they may spend time at the surface to charge batteries, cruise more efficiently and/or to communicate but what combat advantages, if any, would a drone have on the surface if there is no part of it that needs to breathe?
Even further hence, I wonder whether the ideal future naval drone might be capable of both flight and submersible operations?  Flight could be used for faster travel and to escape from enemy torpedoes; submersion would grant concealment, energy-efficient loitering, etc.  You then of course need to start on a 'torpedo' design that can follow a target into the air and potentially back underwater again.  Get a few of these machines fighting each other close to shore and you've got yourself a hell of a show, if nothing else!

Interesting if true. Would explain why SOF are in Africa. I never bought the Wagner storyline.
 

video of the attack on the landing ship Caesar Kunikov from the deck. Lots of MGs, not a lot of night vision by the looks of things. And it seems that maybe the seababy can take a few small calibre hits (modern inert explosive warhead?)
 

So I don't want to dogpile this, and to be honest what you said sounds good in theory. Having said that, US threats would have little credibility right now, large deliveries would have to be made. On top of that, those deliveries would likely not include large numbers of 155 shells since the whole world is running short of those at the moment. 
So that puts us in the position that the US government has finally mobilised to help Ukraine, so expectations are going to rise again - why not take another shot at victory? Maybe because they don't have the shells - well at that point the threat is not looking so bad for Russia after all so they continue, at least to get a better negotiating position. 
The sorts of coercive diplomacy that works on small, isolated countries does not work on a conflict of this scale and commitment. Both side are in too deep to back off now. 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

Fuel might be an issue, maybe. Money, maybe, but with something like 17%+ of GDP spent on the war there must surely be enough for the BSF. 
Even then, the lie is put to that by the direct example of Ukraine. Strong leadership always finds a way, and quickly.
Lazy, unimaginative and fearful leaders stall, prevaricate and rehash existing tactics and doctrine, to no avail. 
Thank God the BSF is led by domesticated goldfish, while Ukraine's naval war is led by sharks. 
 

I wonder if the issue is money - if the fleet budget is being plundered to pay for the land campaign they can't adapt ships and training easily, let alone develop a new drone force. On the other hand they need to demonstrate they are trying to do something to keep Putin happy so they put assets at risk (Russian attitude being you are not fighting if you don't take casualties anyway.) This is all compounded by remarkably poor leadership. 
This situation can't be stable though, surely the Russians will have to think of something eventually...
Edit: I imagine (with no evidence at all really) that the BSF can barely pay for fuel right now due to cut budgets, let alone more crew to man machine guns and searchlights. But they can't have the hard conversations with Putin to say the fleet needs to be mothballing ships to save money right now, not charging off to fight Ukrainians. 

The BSF is no joke in terms of firepower and is still a considerable force, but having destroyed the UKR Navy it lacks the organic units to perform the second of its two missions. First is control the open sea (nominally done, and but not really - in UKR grain exports are at/past pre war levels), second is control the littoral zone. (third would be support inland ground forces with ranged strikes). 
This course of the war, as with several other aspects, again reminds me of the Russo-Japanese War, specifically Port Arthur. Not a perfect analogy (nothing is) but similar pressures and operational/strategic pinch points. 
The BSF eradicated the UKR Navy as a fighting force but has failed to control the shores. Its ships are too vulnerable, its training and operational performance are abysmal but where it truly seems to fail is leadership. 
Operationally, the lack of basic fleeting/convoying and Air support around VIP units (cough Moskva cough Ropucha class cough) is just incredible. I mean, did these guys not read naval history at all ? Are they utterly bereft of any clue in how to deal with their enemy outside simplistic text books? 
These are old tactics, fully described in any naval warfare text. Old but effective. Even if they are not a full solution (because drones) they still increase the friction against any attack. Stack up the layers and attacks start to fail, or at the least the damage inflicted is lessened. I mean, do something . 
Are they not looking at current events and past losses? After so, SO many drone strikes why are their ships not bristling with HMGs and search lights? The Ukies do it on land, so it's absolutely possible. Why, when attacks begin are their ships not going full speed, maneuvering like mad and making work for the USVs? Why are helos not in the air, on call, strafing the USVs? Why don't they have their own drone ops onboard, striking back at USVs with FPVs? 
None of the above is hard or requires integrating new tech (drone ops are self contained). 
Seriously, wtf? 
Its impossible to control a hostile shore if you can't even protect your own units in harbour. 
But hey, if you need a family murdered in their home at night then these useless ****s are just who you want. 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

Background sound is old Norvegian folk song in version of Ukrainian medieval-folk group "Spiritual Seasons", who often played on our re-enactments events ) 

"Sergey Kotov" according to interceptions of radiochat was attacked by 5 drones. Together with a ship Russians lost her onboard helicopter Ka-29
And again Budanov developed own sense of humor. Soviet rear-admiral Sergey Kotov has died in 1999 in Ukrainian Feodosia. Near Feodosia reportedly the ship "Sergey Kotov" was sunk
 

Yep.
https://t.me/AFUStratCom/22979

First German FPV drone for military purposes, delivieries will go to Ukraine. Called "tank destroyer" Maus.
We will see if it will turn out to be over-engineered and unnecessarily maintenance intensive. 
But the manufacturer claims to have been in communication with Ukrainian soldiers during the design process.
Released features:
- Weaponry: modular via "clamp-on" system
- Effective range (combat): 5-7 km (3-4 miles)
- Effective range (recon): 12-17km (7-10 miles)
- Max. flight time: 25 min
- vertical speed: 17,5-22.0 m/s
- Weight (empty): 700g
- Max. total weight: 6,5kg
- Frame: Donaustahl-M-V1 (inspired by "De Havilland DH.98")
- Max. speed: 140 km/h (86mi/h)
based on 10.000mAh battery.
Seems like a speedy but low-range drone. Maybe it will have good electro-magnetic shielding? I would hope so.
 

Russians started to use new 122 mm HEFRAG shells OF56IM-1P for D30/2S1 howitzers. They have a range on 4 km longer (19....20 km), than Soviet shells (15,2 km). This shells very similar to Chineese 122 mm ammunition with the same parameters, but unknown either this direct Chineese supply with Russian markings or Russian produced.
 

Reportedly on Avdiivka front "war of reserves" started in full height. Russian threw in the battle 74th motor-rifle brigade and prepare to involve own three territorial troops MRRs (form 1 to 3). Recently they began to assault Krasnohorivka town and could distract there part of 3rd assault brigade. Though this didn't bring Russians almost nothing. In current time intensive clashes are continuing on the line Berdychi - Orlivlka - Tonen'ke. These villages aren't completely controlled by any side. 
Map just for illustration, situation is very dynamical, positions сonstantly change hands, but interesting, Russian miliblogger with regret pointed out that "UKR frorces already don't retreat from Avdiivka, but try to fight back with reserves" 
Also UKR soldier in own twitter wrote the number of Russian sorties with gliding bombs significantly reduced. For yesterday only 4 strikes.