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Hm.... In this video at least 2 targets were disabled with direct or close hits of single D-30 and FPV has appeared only at the end, when survived tank already retreated. Of course, artillery fire on moving targets is not effective, but Russians were making some stops during the movement, which opened a window of opportunity for D-30 and MT-12. If we had more barrels, it could be more effective (though we could have enough barrels, but not enough shells)

Assuming something smart at work here is probably over-interpreting the videos. The simple explanation for the first video is that the system got distracted by some dirt pattern (doesn't look like it's targeting the guy running) and in the second case the fire made the vehicle look different than the images the system was trained on.
Not saying the system can't be that smart, just that we humans tend to interpret more into those things than there is in reality. More often than not it's a bug, not a feature. 😉

Shilpkin's study is not the evidence- it's approximation of voting anomalies based on various, quite complicated statistical methods. Russian liberals naturally like to call it "ingenious" and whole plethora of superlatives, but even if it is close to truth, it's still just estimate (there are others who put fraud ballots even higher numbers, like 30+ mlns). Especially that turn-out ratio is very murky this time due to war, immigration, online voting and overall atmosphere. Also note 51% isn't any barrier, since there is no one opposition candidate. It is certain some voting base is by default already "lended" by Putin to certified opposition, like Kharitonov (a communist candidate harnessing sentiments of mostly older people, who under more normal circumstances would also support current president).
     More solid are perhaps exit-polls made by foreign polling companies abroad, but they are naturally very limited in their usefulness too. There is interesting logic there- while in Western countries Putin generally lost royally according to exit polls (like last times, circa 15%; his support in Germany for example was unexpectedly low this time), in Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and several other states that absorbed a lot of Russian emigrees or are popular travel destinations,  his support was something like 30-40%, with accordingly high amount of refusals to questions.
So what we can only be sure is only that Russian society is depoliticized, hunkering down and Putin is only viable candidate. Like it was in last years.
About second part you are right- siloviki are crude when comes to electional frauds. They always were. But still I see no reason to see unexpectedly high official ratings of Putin as some sort of desperation on behalf of Kremlin or tectonic changes in Russian psyche. There are other, simpler explenations, including current propaganda needs, over-zelous local officials and overall geopolitical situation.
 

Free-Russia fighters of RVC in NE part of Kozinka village. Russian tank got projectille in side, but, alas, too close range, the HEAT hadn't time to activate.
Graivoron district of Belgorod oblast completely out of electricity - power substation was destroyed.

Suddenly - Romanian volunteer unit "Getica" operates in Belgorod oblast (on the video you can hear Romanian language). Tank with LRL flag also has seen as well as Ukrainian tanks
Belgorod is gradually turning out into Kharkiv 2022. Deficite of food in supermarkets is beginning, people either hide in houses or flee from the city. Attack on Belgorod oblast is sensetive blow on Russian economy. Belgorod oblast is one of not many prospering regions of Russia. It gives to country many of meat (especially pork and chicken) - up to 11% of total production, milk, sunflower oil (up to 16 %), 39 % of iron ore, here concentraten many machine-building factories, so this turmoils and "uncertainity" (C) can undermine production, trade and taxes, which Belgorod gives to central budget
    
 
Interesting in Russia, which always was showing how "Kievan junta 8 years have been bombing Donbas" there is alsmost full censorship on what now happening in Belgorod oblast. Russian VKontakte social media started to block and delete posts and comments od Belgorod citizens about shelligs, destructions and hard life in the city. Hordes of bots actively deny any successes of free-Russia forces in border villages

When I was more interested in such things, I believe it was basically possible to sample wifi traffic for N minutes, push the data up to AWS and use various techniques to attempt to decrypt/recover keys there. So assuming you can sample enough data on the front, it might be doable. And then you are relying on encryption keys being rotated frequently or being generated new for every communication.

This night next Russian oil refinery was hit - in Slavyansk-on-Kuban', Krasnodar region. Cameraman says about seven UAVs hit the refinery and in this time eighth flies over his head and hit refinery. It's good to see a fractionating column is burning and some other object on the refinery territory
This is not a large refinery with production capability about 4 mln. tons for a year. 
 

I don't think your argument really addresses the point here. Russia does not have to be as effective pound for pound as Ukraine, they can use more resources sustainably. So in a static situation they can use more shells than Ukraine so even if they are more wasteful the number of casualties may end up being the same. 
That is obviously not ideal for Ukraine - if both sides are just sitting in trenches taking 500 casualties a day then the war is not going to end any time soon.

I don't think your argument really addresses the point here. Russia does not have to be as effective pound for pound as Ukraine, they can use more resources sustainably. So in a static situation they can use more shells than Ukraine so even if they are more wasteful the number of casualties may end up being the same. 
That is obviously not ideal for Ukraine - if both sides are just sitting in trenches taking 500 casualties a day then the war is not going to end any time soon.

Attrition in my mind is the constant cost of war, where as casulties from offensive operations are seperate. The naming here is pretty irrelevant though because as I said, the ZSU is not suffering more absolute casulties*
This is not because the average drone pilot is 10 times better or has 10 times more drones and thus somehow offsets the total lack of shells.
Its just a result that attacking in an environment where units can be reliably spotted kilometers away before they even assembled for a large scale attack, and can be killed more easily with the cheap-o FPV PGM, is near suicidal as russian meatwaves prove day in day out.
Even if they make it past no mans land, a focused drone effort wipes most of the exposed and often EW-unprotected / unentrenched survivors out before much of any momentum can be gained. 
Its the same for both sides in this way but as Ukraine is not attacking, its not subject to this exposure as much, just the daily bombing and artillery shelling
Yes, I agree with this. Beyond 2025-2026, this war will reach non sustainability for putin and keeping a stalemate will just help get there safer. But this does not refute the idea that the disparity in casualties is caused by offensive actions, which compensate for the firepower difference.
 
*although, when it comes to relative losses I think the picture depends on the weapon system. I made the case for the Avdiivka losses, where russia ended up basically at a zero change with the captured, refurbished and produced vehicles in that timeframe, while the losses to Ukraine are permanent and lowered the capabilities of the armed forces, since there is close to no heavy gear still being supplied in quantity. 

My point in the response is to the daily attrition, which has shifted in favor of russia. Ie a situation where neither side attacks
Attacking in the current environment successfully at scale is near impossible for anyone. 
That russia continues to do so evens the casulties out, whether the russian offensive capabilities outlast the defense and results in a crumbling of the front is known not even to the commanders. 

Regarding recent Russian strike on Ukrainian AA column, Butusov channel confirmed it was Patriot launcher.
-2 launchers were destroyed (no mention of radar, but another vehicle was destroyed too) by overal 3 Iskanders.
- This battery was used very extensively in recent weeks, likely it was reason so many Russian planes started to fall down. This allowed muscovites to broadly locate the place of the radar; likely rest was done by visual confirmation by drones.
- Ukrainians knew in last moment that rockets zeroed on them, and according to journalist they did cardinal mistake here: instead of scrambling, they formed compact column that was to leave the place. It didn't manage on time. 9 crew members sadly died.

Macron with the right idea. After months and months of Russia not de-escalating, its time for the West to up the ante. Clearly Russia has decided to opt for rhetoric of "existential" for Ukraine to fall, it is past time for Europe to recognize that should Ukraine fall, the door is opened to a age of conflict threatening the rest of Europe, and better to slam the door closed in Ukraine then in the Baltics. 
Shut it down in Ukraine or in the next 20 years we will have a renewed Russian Empire chomping at the rest of Eastern Europe. 
 
 

Our side keeps tough OPSEC, but relying on Russian TG posts, looks like UKR forces are providing large-scale offensive operation (yes, including helicopter landing) and this is not only free-Russia units. Russians report about heavy clashes and combined arms operation of Ukrainian side. Some their TG writes about complete fail of UKR afforts, but other not so optimistic, so it's hard to say about real situation
On this video claimed Russian soldiers surrender to free-Russia troops on southern outskirt of Spodaryushino village.
Allegedle place of helicopter landing in Kozinka, Belgorod oblast - 2 km from village center.

Belgorod is under continous MLRS and drone strikes. At least two citizens were killed. Free-Russia forces repeated today own call to civilans about immediate evacuation
Sounds of MLRS impacts in the city
Russians in own turn heavy attacked Sumy oblast with KABs and hit many cell-towers and TV transmitetrs. Also one bridge was destroyed through Vorskla river in Velyka Pysarivka village
Free-Russia troops annonced humanitarian corridor this night for border areas in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, after this since 15th of March large-scale strikes will be started on military objects in vicinity of settlements in this area - Tyotkino - Grauvoron - Shebekino - Urazovo. There were several videos how  

 
Russian settlers flee on foot or by cars from Graivoron to Belgorod from combat zone. Feel taste of war, you, who joyfully exclaimed, when missiles and MLRS from Belgorod oblast hit Kharkiv.
 

From what we can tell..."not really".  The modern Russian military system employed at the beginning of the war looked a lot more western in composition.  Since then, it does look like Russia is rolling back to the Soviet Divisional construct at least for force generation.  As to EW employment specifically...who knows, but I suspect the Russians are falling back on volume.  They definitely appear to have upped their ISR game somewhat.
In the field both sides are down to multiple small unit actions to go anywhere - this is why Adiivka likely took months instead of days.
Why that is happening has nothing to do with the strengths or weaknesses of the Soviet era systems.  It has to do with profile and time.  We have seen plenty examples of detection of forces well back from the front line.  So if one tries to marshal anything bigger than a company your ISR signature is going to get picked up very early.  Hell the troop positioning movements alone will likely get picked up.
Second element is time.  It takes maybe 30 minutes to get a company group or combat team lined up and into action.  Less if you have drilled it.  A Battalion can be an hour or more.  A Brigade can take hours to days to get into position and lined up for an operation.  An entire day sitting with a lot of highly detectable assets in range (now being +50kms) of strikes is suicidal on this battlefield...so neither side is doing that.  This has little to do with upscaling ability, or Soviet era C2, and everything to do with battlefield illumination and long range strike at a tactical level.  If you want to lose a Brigade, sure deploy it within 50kms of the front in concentration and try and get it shook out for a major operation.
So both sides appear to be de-aggregating in order to have some chance of actually getting forces to the front.  This has resulted in corrosive tactical scatter in a lot of cases.  In the few areas where we see concentration (e.g. Russian assaults at Adiivka and Bakhmut) we still saw small scale actions, just a lot of them repeated.  We also saw horrendous losses.
There is a very real possibility that behavior on the battlefield is a result of the environment and not legacy shortfalls in C2.  This scares the bejezzus out of the west as we have bet the farm on the superiority of our own system.  The real lesson for the west is: "do not fight in a war like this one".  Which is a great idea, unless all war is headed towards versions of this one, at least for the next while.
I strongly suspect we are headed for something even worse for the western system to be honest.  The trends pulled out of this war speak to a completely different battlefield dynamics, much of which we have not figured out.  We could have entire volumes of doctrine that have been overtaken by events, and nothing scares a modern military more than that.  

Dead Russian soldiers near border village Nezhegol' of Belgorod oblast. According to ASTRA during clashes in this area Russian forces lost 4 Rosgvardiya servicemen and 4 were wounded, were destroyed one "Ural" track and D-20 howitzer. 
"Liberty of Russia Legion" showed FPV strikes on Russian BMD-2 in Kursk oblast
Free-Russia fighters warned citizens of Kursk and Belgorod to leave their cities immediately, because they will be forced to strike on Russian army objects in these cities and they want to avoid civilian deaths.

UKR drones attacked oil refinery in Novoshakhtinskiy, Rostov oblast. Local authorities wrote two drones fell down on territory of enetrprise, сausing a fire. Alas, no details and video
Today also light long-range UAV hit FSB building in Belgorod, but just broke windows and damaged facade

UKR drones, attacked Ryazan' oil refinery were UKR developed "Lyutyi" ("Fury") drones (the second from above in right column). They very similar to Chineese Mugin-5, also used by Ukriane in strikes. By rumors this drone can fly on 1000 km and carry up to 75 kg of warhead. But real data unknown. 
Reportedly during the strike on Ryazan refinery were taken out two from four fractioning columns AVT-4 and AT-6, different by year outpit. Because of this Ryazan refinery lost 70 % of own output capabilities. Most of production of this refinery have been sending to Moscow oblast. Intersting that today was claimed about death of top-manager of "Lukoil" company Vitaliy Robertus - the fourth, since the war began. There are rumors he was kileld diring drone strike, but no confirmation yet 

Near Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
Helicopters of 12th Army aviation brigade. Two pilots killed.

There are rumors, sharply increased successes of Russian strikes in last two weeks it's not because their rised recon&strike capabilities, but because of possible information leakage from higher HQ level - all episodes were in Donetsk oblast or close  

RUS get to 3 [in fact 2- third fly away] Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters. Everything observed from RUS drone. First, one missile with a cluster warhead flew (judging by the number of charges, Tornado rather than Iskander) and after two damaged machines could not fly away - single hits with precision ammunition.
Unfortunately, in the current conditions, the Russian reconnaissance and strike complex has achieved the efficiency it was expected to have before the war. In 2022, for many reasons, it did not work out, in 2023 it worked on average, but unfortunately this year we already see the mythical <5 minutes for HVT (high-value targets). Currently, there is no margin for error for Ukrainians. Of course, this is only the result of the fact that RUS drones fly 40-80 km at home in the Ukrainian hinterland.
Event took place 11.03; in one of helicopters both pilots were killed according to other Ukrianian channels (as always,treat his considerations with grian of salt whenc omes to details, but clip seems genuine. Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines)
 
 

Russian city Volgodonsk on the east of Rostov oblast is under UKR UAV attack now. Sounds of machine-guns are heard. No information yet about results of atatck.
This city is a center of nuclear energy machine-building of Russia - Rostov nuclear power plant and two largest enterprises, producing 70 % of heavy equipment for nuclear energetic. Except this hydro power plant and two thermal power plants. Fat target. 
 

During Russian Iskander/KN-23 strike on Odesa port on 6th of March six UKR Naval Forces servicemen have died
 

Current situation in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts:
Russian border chekpoint Nekhoteyevka (Belgorod oblast), abandoned by Russian border guards.  Damaged and abandoned free-Russia tank under fire (somebody claimed this is a video of year-ago raid, but maybe later we will have more information)
LFR claims they still hold Tyotkino border settlment in Kursk oblast

Some locals in Belgorod oblast shared infromation Su-27 was allegedly shot down near Belgorod and fell down into forest (this is not IL-76 incident, because Ivanovo, where this plane crashed is in 760 km NE from Belgorod). Single video of probably crash site is a large smoke over the forest, but still no confirmation about jet falling